Market share of various calibers

[John_R]

Like many, I always wondered why .380 cost more than 9mm. Online explanations by people of unknown background discuss how 9mm is produced in quantities that offer economy of scale. This is likely just one piece of the puzzle. It just occurred to me that all centerfire handgun ammo costs about the same, except 9mm. I can’t find a breakdown of market share of various calibers, but I’ll accept that 9mm has a disproportionate share of demand, exceeded by plentiful production (except for the current circumstances, of course), hence the supply/demand rule keeps the price lower than other calibers.

So I’ve been asking the wrong question. It’s not, “Why is ___ more expensive than 9mm?” It’s simply “Why is 9mm the low cost caliber.”
I did read that rimfire is about 55% of market share, and I’ll assume the vast majority of that is .22LR. So that economy of scale helps make .22LR cheap.

I also read that WWII ammo production was more than double today’s production, and the Lake City plant is the only one still operating, making 99% of military ammo, but that’s a different topic.

 

[P89DCSS]

Just as a reference:
From: https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/u-s-small-caliber-ammunition-market-101915

 

[John_R]

that’s the one I found, but it’s incomplete.

 

[P89DCSS]

I have never seen any official numbers and just went with what everyone else claimed.
Its not clear if the market share numbers in the link are based on number of rounds or revenue.
I'm surprised to see 45acp so high and 22lr so low.
Maybe 9mm is so high because so many PDs and government agencies are switching to 9mm?

 

[P89DCSS]

Here's a better link:
http://knowledgeglue.com/what-are-the-most-popular-calibers-in-the-us/

 

[reloaded_in_pa]

Here's a better link:
http://knowledgeglue.com/what-are-the-most-popular-calibers-in-the-us/

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I'm surprised 22LR is that low on the list. Also surprised 380 is higher than 38/357. Is that chart by sales ?

 

[jmr40]

That list is from 2015. No doubt it would be far different today. In 2018 roughly 1/2 of the bolt action rifles sold were chambered in 6.5 CM. 308 accounted for about 5% of bolt guns sold and 30-06 was in the "other" category. For 2020 6.5 CM would be somewhere near the middle of that list and others wouldn't be on the list.

40 S&W has sharply declined and 300 BO now has a following

 

[Frulk]

Interesting that .327 FM and .32 H&R didn’t even chart.

Edit: I saw it did chart.

 

[P89DCSS]

In 2018 roughly 1/2 of the bolt action rifles sold were chambered in 6.5 CM. 308 accounted for about 5% of bolt guns sold and 30-06 was in the "other" category. For 2020 6.5 CM would be somewhere near the middle of that list and others wouldn't be on the list.

Speculation that ignores the 75 year installed base of 308/762 rifles compared to a low volume boutique caliber like 6.5cm with a few years of rifle sales. I wonder how many 6.5cm rounds hunters, US Army, PDs and government agencies purchase compared to 308/7.62. I'll add to the speculation, 1/1000? 1/10000? 1/100000?

 

[Encoreman]

Anyone else pickup on the fact that .40S&W was # 6 and .40 cal was 12th place. Plus I really doubt there was more 10 gauge sold than 10mm. I am 68 years old and don't know that I have ever seen a 10 gauge round. So my thoughts are this is an error ridden chart. IMHO

 

[Tirod]

Take a look at how many other countries now make 9mm and 5.56.Most of the western world and any of the eastern who wants market share. So we get a lot of steel case and a lot of 9mm, too. With worldwide production it becomes a worldwide competition for market share. We may lament the passing of $7 a box steel case this or that, but there's the point - when you can literally buy double the ammo for the same amount of money, a lot of shooters do. It may be plinker, and it may not be as reliable (yay stoppage drills!) but it can and will put price pressure on the higher end products.

There's a lot of US companies filling that 9mm niche for overseas sales to their military, either direct or by Gov military aid. Having made a NATO standard, a company making ammo for internal use can then tap the market for US dollars with something that on paper at least appears to conform to a standard, and likely does. Like Turkish made 9mm pistols - some make derogatory comments, but if the maker states they are certified to NATO standards with a 55k round of testing, its not junk.

In terms of poking a hole in something that might annoy me, it's a Canik with PMC or a 365 with a Sierra in a Shellshock case. We would only be arguing an incremental difference in velocity, power, and effective whoa - ability.

Would that more countries picked up (name your fav alternate AR15 cartridge) so that we could get that kind of price drop. But, no, sometimes the best you can do is load your own. Leave the training/plinker in a cheap .Gov surplus caliber and enjoy.

 

[George P]

12 gauge number 23? I seriously doubt that, unless they are only talking about 00buck rounds. Opening day in Texas' dove season sees millions of rounds shot; that's 1 state, let alone the entire country and not including all of the clay target shooters.

 

[P89DCSS]

12 gauge number 23? I seriously doubt that, unless they are only talking about 00buck rounds. Opening day in Texas' dove season sees millions of rounds shot; that's 1 state, let alone the entire country and not including all of the clay target shooters.

It's number 4 on the list along with 23. I assume the lower volume is slug and the #4 slot is buckshot.

Anyone else pickup on the fact that .40S&W was # 6 and .40 cal was 12th place. Plus I really doubt there was more 10 gauge sold than 10mm. I am 68 years old and don't know that I have ever seen a 10 gauge round. So my thoughts are this is an error ridden chart. IMHO

The list isn't perfect and a little old but there's no reason to think it's worthless. I've never seen 10mm or 10 gauge but that means nothing. Besides, neither account of even 0.1% of sales so it's in the noise.

 

[P89DCSS]

I'm surprised 22LR is that low on the list. Also surprised 380 is higher than 38/357. Is that chart by sales ?

The second chart is millions of rounds sold and that confirms the first chart is by number of rounds sold, not revenue. 38/357 combined exceeds 380 by a couple tenths of percent. Why not?

 

[George P]

It's number 4 on the list along with 23. I assume the lower volume is slug and the #4 slot is buckshot.



The list isn't perfect and a little old but there's no reason to think it's worthless. I've never seen 10mm or 10 gauge but that means nothing. Besides, neither account of even 0.1% of sales so it's in the noise.

I am not assuming #4 is buckshot unless this list is only defensive ammo - which it isn't. there are millions of target and hunting rounds sold every year

 

[FROGO207]

I always figured if I go to the private range and look on the ground or in the brass bucket it will be a good representation of what is popular and how popular out there. Same for the barrel in the trap range. Heck there are even some 16 GA trap shooters here.

 

[dodo bird]

45 Gap was higher than 45 colt.

 

[John_R]

Interesting chart, I wonder where the data came from.

 

[rust collector]

In terms of number of rounds, it's hard to believe anything beats 22 rimfire. First chart may be accurate based upon dollars spent, but second chart is, I suspect, supposed to be related to number of arms chambered in that round and reflects a few anomalies as noted above. There are many data points to pull from and some manufacturers don't disclose production numbers, so incomplete and dated at best.

If I judged based upon empties at the range, steel case calibers would win by a mile