Mass shootings "hotspots" don't correlate to laws

[hso]

The UK Daily Mail isn't a 2A advocacy publication so when they banner an article like this we should pay attention.

America's mass shooting hotspots laid bare in study map

Washington D.C. was revealed to be the worst place for mass shootings, followed by Louisiana and Illinois. At the other end of the scale was Hawaii and North Dakota who had no mass shootings.

www.dailymail.co.uk

America's mass shooting hotspots have been revealed in a first-of-its-kind map — and they aren't necessarily where most people own guns.

Researchers at the University of Colorado looked at 4,011 mass shootings — defined as four or more gun deaths, not including the shooter — between 2014 and 2022.

They broke down the massacres in each state by population size to calculate a rate — to allow for a more fair comparison.

Even though it is a city not a state, Washington D.C. was revealed to have the highest rate of mass shootings per capita - 10.4 shootings for every 100,000 people - even though it has some of the strongest gun violence prevention legislation in the nation.

Louisiana had the highest rate of mass shootings per capita of any state, the study found at around 4.3 shootings for every 100,000 people.


The above map shows the rate of mass shootings per million people by state between the years 2014 and 2022





Of all mass shootings, some 27 percent were linked to social settings, such as a bar, club or house party.

A further 16 percent were linked to crime, 11 percent to domestic violence and one percent to schools or workplaces. Fifty-two percent did not fit into one of these categories.

For the study, published today in JAMA Network Open, researchers extracted data from the Gun Violence Archive — a database of mass shooting incidents across the US run by a nonprofit group.

The researchers did not say why Washington D.C. — the nation's capital — was top of the list.

The district has some of the strictest gun control laws in the nation — with open carrying banned and thorough background checks necessary before purchasing a weapon.

It also has a lower gun ownership rate than other states, with estimates suggesting 36 percent of residents have a gun — compared to the national average of 39 percent.

In second place was Louisiana, which has lax gun control laws and a high ownership rate of 52 percent.

Illinois, which has tight gun control laws and low gun ownership, came IN third on the list. [EXPAND ON CONTROL LAWS, SIMILAR TO DC]

The state also does not PERMIT open carry and has one of the lowest ownership rates in the country at 22 percent.

Rounding out the top five STATES WITH THE HIGHEST MASS SHOOTINGS were Mississippi (2.91 mass shootings per million people) and Alabama (2.32 per million).

The remaining states with the lowest rates of mass shootings were New Hampshire, Vermont and Wyoming — which all recorded only one incident over the study period.

Characterization of Mass Shootings by State, 2014-2022

This case series investigates the rates of mass shootings, along with injuries and deaths, by US state and shooting type.

jamanetwork.com

 

[bearcreek]

It's a popular myth amongst "gun people" that more guns = less crime and it's a popular myth amongst "anti's" that less guns = less crime. Neither is right or wrong. It's a cultural/moral issue, not a hardware/tool availability issue.

 

[WVGunman]

Did they do any research to establish that the people committing the mass shootings were even FROM where the shootings took place? Anyone can drive into D.C. and shoot someone there; it would have nothing to do with local laws. D.C. borders two states and is within a few hours drive of several more. But the same could be said of any locality: Where a shooting takes place may have nothing to do with who lives there.

 

[bearcreek]

Did they do any research to establish that the people committing the mass shootings were even FROM where the shootings took place? Anyone can drive into D.C. and shoot someone there; it would have nothing to do with local laws. D.C. borders two states and is within a few hours drive of several more. But the same could be said of any locality: Where a shooting takes place may have nothing to do with who lives there.

One of the popular arguments anti gun rights people make for stricter national gun laws is that the guns in high crime, strict gun law regions/states come from low restriction states. This is true in many cases. Guns are bought via straw purchases and then brought to places like Chicago, NYC, LA, old Mexico etc. where they can be sold for a profit.

 

[InTheSwamp]

John Lott Jr. would like to have a word on that.

 

[JTHunter]

One of the popular arguments anti gun rights people make for stricter national gun laws is that the guns in high crime, strict gun law regions/states come from low restriction states. This is true in many cases. Guns are bought via straw purchases and then brought to places like Chicago, NYC, LA, old Mexico etc. where they can be sold for a profit.

And "Bloomnut" tried that with undercover shills to show that many of the guns in NYC came from states like Virginia. They failed.

 

[entropy]

.gov wanted to show that guns are smuggled into Mexico so bad that they went in to business doing it.

 

[Double Naught Spy]

Did they do any research to establish that the people committing the mass shootings were even FROM where the shootings took place? Anyone can drive into D.C. and shoot someone there; it would have nothing to do with local laws. D.C. borders two states and is within a few hours drive of several more. But the same could be said of any locality: Where a shooting takes place may have nothing to do with who lives there.

True, shooting location may have nothing to do with where the shooter lives.

I will tell you right now that most stereotypical mass shootings occur where people had some sort of issue and that tends to be close to home. Often, these are schools, churches, malls, businesses. There are exceptions such as with Sutherland Springs, but they tend to be rare. Some mass shootings don't happen where the shooter had an issue, but they too tend to be close to home.

With that said, where the shooter lived isn't relevant to the law. The law that applies is the law where the shooting took place, not where the shooter was from.

It's a popular myth amongst "gun people" that more guns = less crime and it's a popular myth amongst "anti's" that less guns = less crime. Neither is right or wrong. It's a cultural/moral issue, not a hardware/tool availability issue.

Which is what makes both wrong because they argue as if it was a hardware/tool availability issue.

 

[denton]

If you do a plot of homicide rates vs. law strictness for US states, you get a plot that looks like someone dropped a bowl of marbles, i.e., no correlation. Your chances of being murdered are not influenced by how strict the gun laws are. It follows that within the range of existing US laws, you can set strictness anywhere you like without changing homicide rates.

That database used to supply the information on homicide rates is the FBI homicide rate. That database also includes DC and Puerto Rico, which are conveniently left out of anti-gun analysis. If those are included (super strict laws, very high homicide rate), then the picture changes, with a negative correlation between law strictness and homicide rates. That is, more guns, fewer homicides.

I used to like to point out that Malaysia had about the same homicide rate as my state, Utah. But in Malaysia, posession of one round of ammunition or a firearm draws an automatic life sentence. Possession of ammunition and a firearm is an automatic death penalty. Utah, on the other hand, is practically awash in firearms.

Japan's suicide rate is much higher than ours. But there is no private firearm ownership at all in Japan. I think the people there are sad because they don't have firearms.

It's not the guns that are the problem. Blaming guns is a cop-out. We have some real problems to solve. Blaming guns gives some people an easy way out. It's not enough to "do something" about the problems. It requires us to do something much more difficult, something that actually works.

 

[Elkins45]

I would like to see a correlation with gun free zones. It sure seems like a lot of true mass shootings happen in a place where people aren’t supposed to have guns. Victim disarmament zones, if truthfully named.

 

[Old Dog]

Wait, so FOUR of the top TEN states for "mass shootings" (IL/MD/DE/DC) have some of the most restrictive gun laws in the country, while NINE of the TEN states with the least amount of "mass shootings" have some of the least restrictive gun laws in the country?

No respect for this media outlet since it cannot even extrapolate this conclusion from its own statistics.

 

[CDW4ME]

If only there was some data about the perpetrators, are most of them over or under or over 40, 30, 25 years old (for example).
Without data one might envision the majority perpetrators as menopausal women between 40-50 years old. Title said something about hot.

 

[Walkalong]

Crazy is universal

 

[lysanderxiii]

There is lying, and then there is lying through statistics.

The criteria give was mass shooting per million people.

Washington DC is tops with 10.43 shooting per 1,000,000, with a population of 700,000 people that means about 11 shooting over the 2014-2022 period

Louisiana is second with 4.28 shooting per 1,000,000, with a population of 4.6 millions, that means 1 shooting over the 2014-2022 period

Illinois is third with 3.61/1,000,000; pop 12.67 million = 4 shootings

Mississippi - 2.95/1,000,000; pop 2.95 = 1 shooting

Alabama - 2.32/1,000,000; pop 5 million = 2 shootings

Missouri - 2.29/1,000,000; pop 6.17 million = 3

South Carolina = 2 shootings

Delaware = 2 shootings

Tennessee = 4 shootings

Maryland - 3 shootings

Using the criteria of "per 100,000 " or "per million" highly basis the results against the low population areas. When you further break it down into locality and local laws, you get a very different picture.

 

[lysanderxiii]

Here's another one trying to show that restrictive gun laws help lower the number of deaths:

However, when you look at the total number of people killed you get a different picture:

CA = 3335
HI = 49
NY = 1051
MA = 258
CT = 216
IL = 1786
MD = 832
NJ = 463

AZ =1215
OK = 825
WY = 150
SD = 122
AR = 684
MT = 231
ID = 335
MS = 843

 

[bearcreek]

However, when you look at the total number of people killed you get a different picture:

CA = 3335
HI = 49
NY = 1051
MA = 258
CT = 216
IL = 1786
MD = 832
NJ = 463

AZ =1215
OK = 825
WY = 150
SD = 122
AR = 684
MT = 231
ID = 335
MS = 843

Doing that makes it seem like you're cherry picking the stats to prove your point. Why would total number of people killed have any real relevance if you don't take into account total population?

 

[Atavar]

It’s all meaningless. Criminal shooter are criminals because they ignore and/or circumvent the laws in the first place. Trying to equate one to the other is pointless.
What they are trying to do is control criminals by restricting law abiding citizens. How is that going to work?
If we need a new law how about mandatory consecutive 20 year sentence for possessing a lethal weapon during commission of a violent crime?

 

[entropy]

I'd rewrite that as "while commiting a violent crime" . Law abiding citizens who use a lethal weapon to defend themselves/others while a crime is being committed by someone else, as well as Law Enforcement on scene while a crime is being committed, would be subject to the same mandatory sentence as the perpetrator.

"During the commission" is in passive voice, and means literally anyone, not just the perpetrator.

 

[GEM]

Have to look at demographics, economic circumstances of the shooters, drug / gang involvement of the shooters for many of the non-rampage by single, lone wolf (ex. school shooters, Las Vegas type). County by county - state by state and laws - doesn't tell you that much. Plenty of research on gun culture by those variable producing shooting.

 

[CDW4ME]

Here's another one trying to show that restrictive gun laws help lower the number of deaths

Everytown Research?

If two armed felons kicked in my front door and screamed, "Die CDW4ME, die!!!" and I managed to defend myself killing both of them in the process...
That hypothetical incident of what would be legal self defense is likely reported as two gun deaths by Everytown.
Do they separate lawful self defense versus murder in their gun death numbers? I doubt it.

 

[grampster]

The one element that is never reported with respect to crime is the cultural aspect. That's the elephant in the room. The American cultural standards have been eroded and degraded with respect to many things. One could write a lot about this, but just common knowledge that is readily available with respect to just about every aspect of American life is very obvious. Very few with a bully pulpit speaks of it other than those who seek to divide us and control us.

 

[CDW4ME]

The one element that is never reported with respect to crime is the cultural aspect. That's the elephant in the room.

Cultural aspect missing ... Amish, Mennonite, or both?. Silent speculation. Elephant? What elephant.

 

[GEM]

State by state is worthless as pointed out. NO demographics of shooters makes it worthless. We know some 'mass shootings' are gang related in concentrated areas in cities. Those are different from the rampage nut.

 

[old lady new shooter]

The law that applies is the law where the shooting took place, not where the shooter was from.

Thank you.

 

[JTHunter]

There is lying, and then there is lying through statistics.

That is why a certain writer (Twain?) said many years ago that: "There are lies, then there are damned lies, then there are statistics."