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VPC Says:'Pro-gun'States With "Weak"Gun Laws Have the Highest Homicide Rates

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by Winchester 73, Apr 25, 2008.

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  1. Winchester 73

    Winchester 73 member

    Apr 10, 2007
    'Pro-Gun' States Lead the Nation in Per Capita Firearm Death Rates


    Violence Policy Center Analysis of New Data Reveals Louisiana, Alaska,
    Montana, Tennessee, and Alabama Top List of Deadliest States in the Nation

    Blind Allegiance to the Second Amendment Takes Deadly Toll

    WASHINGTON, April 24 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- States in the South and
    West with weak gun laws and high rates of gun ownership lead the nation in
    overall firearm death rates according to a new analysis issued today by the
    Violence Policy Center (VPC) of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
    (CDC) data.

    The new VPC analysis uses 2005 data (the most recent available) from
    the CDC's National Center for Injury Prevention and Control. The analysis
    reveals that the five states with the highest per capita gun death rates
    were Louisiana, Alaska, Montana, Tennessee, and Alabama. Each of these
    states had a per capita gun death rate far exceeding the national per
    capita gun death rate of 10.32 per 100,000.

    By contrast, states with strong gun laws and low rates of gun ownership
    had far lower rates of firearm-related death. Ranking last in the nation
    for gun death was Hawaii, followed by Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New
    Jersey, and New York. (See list below or chart at
    http://www.vpc.org/press/0804gundeath.htm for states with the highest and
    lowest gun death rates. See http://www.vpc.org/fadeathchart.htm for a
    ranking of all 50 states.)

    States with the Five HIGHEST Per Capita Gun Death Rates

    Louisiana--Rank: 1; Household Gun Ownership: 45.6 percent; Gun Death
    Rate: 19.04 per 100,000.

    Alaska--Rank: 2; Household Gun Ownership: 60.6 percent; Gun Death Rate:
    17.49 per 100,000.

    Montana--Rank: 3; Household Gun Ownership: 61.4 percent; Gun Death
    Rate: 17.22 per 100,000.

    Tennessee--Rank: 4; Household Gun Ownership: 46.4 percent; Gun Death
    Rate: 16.39 per 100,000.

    Alabama--Rank: 5; Household Gun Ownership: 57.2 percent; Gun Death
    Rate: 16.18 per 100,000.

    States with the Five LOWEST Per Capita Gun Death Rates

    Hawaii--Rank: 50; Household Gun Ownership: 9.7 percent; Gun Death Rate:
    2.20 per 100,000.

    Massachusetts--Rank: 49; Household Gun Ownership: 12.8 percent; Gun
    Death Rate: 3.48 per 100,000.

    Rhode Island--Rank: 48; Household Gun Ownership: 13.3 percent; Gun
    Death Rate: 3.63 per 100,000.

    New Jersey--Rank: 47; Household Gun Ownership: 11.3 percent; Gun Death
    Rate: 4.99 per 100,000.

    New York--Rank: 46; Household Gun Ownership: 18.1 percent; Gun Death
    Rate: 5.28 per 100,000.

    VPC Legislative Director Kristen Rand states, "Blind allegiance to the
    Second Amendment comes at a deadly price. Many residents in pro-gun states
    cheer the possibility of a June Supreme Court ruling that could place gun
    controls across the nation at risk, never realizing that those states stand
    as proof of the need for such laws."

    The VPC defined states with "weak" gun laws as those that add little or
    nothing to federal restrictions and have permissive concealed carry laws
    allowing civilians to carry concealed handguns. States with "strong" gun
    laws were defined as those that add significant state regulation in
    addition to federal law, such as restricting access to particularly
    hazardous types of firearms (for example, assault weapons), setting minimum
    safety standards for firearms and/or requiring a permit to purchase a
    firearm, and have restrictive concealed carry laws.

    The Violence Policy Center (http://www.vpc.org) is a national educational
    organization working to stop gun death and injury.
  2. ScratchnDent

    ScratchnDent Member

    Apr 24, 2008
    Tampa Bay area
    I believe there were 32 people shot in Chicago last weekend. Those strong gun laws didn't help those victims.
  3. MakAttak

    MakAttak Member

    Sep 6, 2007
    Wow, why am I always shocked by their biased and faulty statistics.

    More people get killed by a firearm when there are more firearms.

    Not everyone who gets killed is innocent.

    Suicides by gun are not worse than suicides by gravity.

    A better question is: are there more HOMICIDES per capita in states with high gun ownership rates?

    I'm betting (I know) it's no.

    Another question is: are suicide rates higher in states with more gun ownership?

    Again, I'm betting (I know) it's no.

    Awful, just awful.
  4. Rudy Kohn

    Rudy Kohn Member

    Jun 9, 2007
    Austin, TX
    A quick use of WISQARS for simple homicide deaths (not necessarily gun-related) gives:

    (entries are in form STATE: murders/population:gross rate)

    AK: 37/663,253: 5.58
    MO: 33/934,737: 3.53
    TN: 495/5,955,745: 8.31
    AL: 433/4,548,327: 9.52
    LA: 592/4,507,331: 13.13

    HA: 25/1,273,278: 1.96
    MA: 178/6,433,367: 2.77
    RI: 32/1,073,579: 2.98
    NJ: 427/8,703,150: 4.91
    NY: 901/19,315,721: 4.66

    The margin is, of course, less. I checked similar data for suicides, and it looks like the rates in the "gun-free" states are also a bit less.

    I wonder how they picked the states, though. That's probably the key to this problem.

    WISQARS is publicly available at http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/wisqars/

    It's fun to play around with.
  5. jlbraun

    jlbraun Member

    Dec 29, 2005
    Here's my THR thread on this very subject. She's wrong.



    Note that on the left half of the graph are states considered "firearms unfriendly", and in those states an increase in firearm ownership is correlated with increased crime rate. The rest of the country is on the right half.
  6. Big45

    Big45 member

    Oct 5, 2007
    behind enemy lines...NO MORE. Made it to Free Ari
    These people are absolutely pissed that Heller more than likely won't go their way.

    Their pooh poohing is full of lies of course.
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2008
  7. csmkersh

    csmkersh Member

    Jan 26, 2004
    San Antonio TX

    I don't know if Dougie Weil is still Minister of Propaganda at VPC, but this smells like his "work."

    Total homicide rates per 100K from the 2005 FBI UCR, Table 4, for the year 2005:

    LA 9.9
    Alaska 4.8
    Montana 1.9
    Tenn 7.2
    Alabama 4.8

  8. buttrap

    buttrap Member

    Dec 24, 2002
    What ever the VPC says I would tend look at 180 degrees from that as being facts!
  9. Rudy Kohn

    Rudy Kohn Member

    Jun 9, 2007
    Austin, TX
    csmkersh, I wonder why the FBI numbers are so different from the CDC numbers. There's a big difference in some of those rates.

    jlbraun, nice plot, (I think I saw it before in that thread you mentioned) but I have a feeling that if you set up a trendline (and exclude DC), the slope won't be statistically significant. Even with DC, the slope probably won't be statistically significant.

    However, if you were to weight each point based on state population, you might find something significant.

    Of course, there are a million ways to look at this. If, for instance, firearms are used for self-defense ~750,000 times a year (by the most conservative estimates), I'll bet there is a very good correlation between gun ownership and defensive use. That is, places with no lawful ownership show little defensive use.

    Another point--their figures for ownership probably include only lawful ownership.
    I wonder what happens when you remove all murders commited by unlawful possessors of firearms. (E.g. John Q. Gangmember's illegally procured pocket pistol) (Or, what happens if your "possession" rate adds in illegal guns?)

    I wonder how much the murder rate drops when you only consider when people who are in legal possession of the gun use it. I'll bet it plummets like a rock.

    Ah! I didn't even notice that the VPC omitted DC! I'll bet that data point doesn't fit their conclusion!
  10. Beagle-zebub

    Beagle-zebub Member

    Dec 18, 2006
    Moscow, Russia
    In any case, this is an observational study, not a controlled experiment. For an example of the dangers of trusting the former, observe the history of the Philips Curve.
  11. Josh Aston

    Josh Aston Member

    Apr 12, 2006
    Mountain Home, ID
    The only logical explanation would be that the FBI is using the number that the VPC is really looking for, homicides. Whereas the CDC is using all firearm related deaths, to include self defense, suicide, accidents, etc. I'm pretty sure the FBI was including all homicides also, not just firearms related homicides. --edited cause I was wrong --

    When the numbers don't say what you want, use different numbers.
  12. Zangetsu

    Zangetsu Member

    Oct 9, 2007
    The more logical explanation is that CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION!! Any statistician who's worth a damn could find ways of massaging and manipulating the data until it did exactly what they wanted it to show. And also, without some type of analysis and experiment to go along with it, the data is worthless...and let's not even begin to touch the matter of statistical significance. Also, didn't FBI release a report not too long ago which said that no link at all could be found between laws prohibiting assault weapons and reduction in violent crime?
  13. phoglund

    phoglund Member

    Jul 16, 2004
    The Bozone
    I notice they didn't use the District of Columbia stats which are a "crude rate" of 30.93 deaths per 100K!!

    The idea that where I live (Montana) is one of the most dangerous places in America to live is ludicrous.

    Instead of cherry picking the numbers. Just sort by homicide rates and take the lowest 5 states and the highest 5 states.


    Homicide rates taken from "2005, United States Homicide Injury Deaths and Rates per 100,000" published by CDC on 2005 Data.

    Brady ratings taken from "2007 Brady Campaign State Scorecard"

    Move along folks, no story here...except that VPC doesn't care about truth or reality, just their point of view.
  14. csmkersh

    csmkersh Member

    Jan 26, 2004
    San Antonio TX

    There may be two things going here. One innocent and one not.

    The innocent may be a different database the the FBI UCRs.

    The not so innocent is CDC's long bad reputation of being anti-gun. They funded more than one "study" by Prof. Kellermann who promptly mis-stated his findings and withheld his data from peer review.

    Back to VPC and their "numbers." They flat freaking lie. WISQARS will give you firearms related homicides (NOT MURDER) if you ask it properly.

    Here are the States I pulled FBI stats from and now provide the CDC's data from 2005. Oh, and I've added Washington DC. Format is total homicides, population, crude rate per 100K and age adjusted rate:

    LA 457 4,507,331 10.14 9.8
    Alaska 24 663,253 3.62 3.29
    Montana 17 934,737 1.82 1.78
    Tenn 371 5,955,745 6.23 6.22
    Alabama 319 4,548,327 7.01 7.15
    District of Columbia 142 582,049 24.4 21.59

    It's been illeagal to own/possess an unregistered handgun in DC since 1977.

    Sort of makes one question the veracity of CDC. Naw, I know VPC lies. Dealt with them before.

    Oh, minor request. Call me Sam or Sergeant Major. Your choice.
  15. jlbraun

    jlbraun Member

    Dec 29, 2005
    Cherry picking. First, "firearm death" is meaningless. You want to look at the overall murders and violent crime:

    Attached Files:

  16. MTMilitiaman

    MTMilitiaman Member

    Apr 28, 2005
    Missoula, Montana

    There were only 18 total homicides in MT in 2005. With a population of 934,737.

    I have to call BS on the VPC. More people were killed in Chicago last week than in MT during the previous two years...
  17. Synergy

    Synergy Member

    Mar 30, 2008
    Los Angeles
    Folks, lets all remember there is only ONE inaccurate math and thats called "statistics"

    Stats can be manipulated to say anything you want!
  18. RP88

    RP88 Member

    Jan 1, 2008
    one death in ten people is 10%

    one death in New York City is 0.0000000000000001%

    big difference there.
  19. revjen45

    revjen45 Member

    Jul 26, 2007
    Everett, WA
    I suggest an excellent book called "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff and Irving Geis. After reading it (about 2 hours if you don't move your lips when you read) you will never be taken in by numerical guano again.
  20. tntwatt

    tntwatt Member

    Mar 9, 2008
    The CDC study makes no distinction between justifiable homicide(including cops) and criminal homicides. It also puts firearm deaths at #15 in the top 15. Suicide is #11 and accidents is #5.
  21. stephpd

    stephpd Member

    Feb 9, 2007
    Wilmington, DE
    Homicide rates

    Don't forget to separate the gang violence from the other forms of murder. Most gang violence and for that matter most deaths by guns come from those who are forbidden by law (felons) who can't legally own guns. And they didn't purchase those guns legally.

    I live in Delaware and the city of Wilmington has had 11 murders so far this year. All were committed by gang on gang violence. None of the guns were legally purchased and most of those killing others were already felons.

    If we remove (separate) those numbers from the self defense,suicide and killing a spouse we end up with a totally different view.

    If you actually separate into all the different categories gang violence is at the top of the list and self defense at the bottom.

    The government seems unwilling to punish the criminals or patrol high crime areas. Having the felons killing other felons does what the law seems unwilling to do. Get rid of evil people.
  22. thorn726

    thorn726 Member

    Dec 15, 2004
    berkeley, CA

    comparing incredibly densely populated area rates like NY with sparse areas like MT?? shenanigans!
  23. csmkersh

    csmkersh Member

    Jan 26, 2004
    San Antonio TX

    No, all rates stated are in per 100,000 population. Which negates the density "problem."

    What isn't noted because it's "racist" is that areas with a certain high minority population have an out of norm violent crime rate. Specifically, 12.5% of the US population committ the same volume of crime as the 82.5% white population. That's per the FBI UCR for 2005 Expanded Homicide Data Table 1.
  24. Winchester 73

    Winchester 73 member

    Apr 10, 2007
    Now,the cat is out of the bag.This is the statement I've been waiting for.
    Thank you,Mr Kersh.
    And 90% of black homicides are black on black.53% of the U.S total homicide rate is black.
    Hispanics making up 14% of the U.S. population commit 24% of the homicides.
    Caucasians making up 73% of the U.S.population commit 22% of the homicides.
    PC is our biggest curse today.See these stats:

  25. Carl N. Brown

    Carl N. Brown Member

    May 10, 2005
    Kingsport Tennessee
    That's like the argument that the "gun hating northeast" has lower crime rates than the "gun loving south or west" argument. When you look at the Brady Campaign grades for the Northeast states, three are gun hating: MA, CT and RI (their laws get Brady Grades in the A- to B- range) and three are gun loving: ME, VT and NH (all getting a D- Brady grade). Check out the FBI UCR rates of violent crime and homicide per 100,000 population per year:
    [SIZE=3]State Brady Campaign Ratings v FBI UCR Crime and Homicide Rates
    Northeastern US          2003              2006
    Connecticut    A-   308.2    3        280.8    3.1
    Maine          D-   108.9    1.2      115.5    1.7
    Massachusetts  A-   469.4    2.2      447.0    2.9 
    New Hampshire  D-   148.8    1.4      138,7    1,0    
    Rhode Island   B-   285.6    2.3      227.5    2.6
    Vermont        D-   110.2    2.3      136.6    1.9[/SIZE]
    Correlation may not equal causation, but lax gun laws do not guarantee high crime or homicide rates, and vice versa.
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