Next cartridge to become obsolete?
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Glock_10mm
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I'm gonna catch flack on this I know, but I feel the .223 is going to face a huge decline in the near future. It not going to ever die, but as the military goes back to the M14 and more and more rifles are being chambered in the .308 caliber or the many new magnums, the general population is moving back to the high power realm - no matter which caliber, just like the rebirth of the big blocks rolling out of motor city. I feel the 223 has had its day in the sun.
As for truly dying/dead calibers...the .357max is just about there, which is a shame given its compatibility with 38spl and 357mag, as well as use as both a pistol and mid size game rifle cartridge.
I think the 10mm camp is growing, so dont count us out yet!
As for truly dying/dead calibers...the .357max is just about there, which is a shame given its compatibility with 38spl and 357mag, as well as use as both a pistol and mid size game rifle cartridge.
I think the 10mm camp is growing, so dont count us out yet!
A couple guys mentioned .50AE and what guns it was chambered in.
It was also available in the Freedom Arms Model 83 (same revolver that is still available in many calibers, but most famously in .454 Casull).
Ohhh, how I want a Model 83 in .500 Wyoming Express. Possibly a future dead caliber, but the jury is still out.
gp911
It was also available in the Freedom Arms Model 83 (same revolver that is still available in many calibers, but most famously in .454 Casull).
Ohhh, how I want a Model 83 in .500 Wyoming Express. Possibly a future dead caliber, but the jury is still out.
gp911
earplug
Member
.25 ACP
Been surpassed by .32 ACP and .380.
Havent seen a little Baby Browning/Colt at the range in years.
Been surpassed by .32 ACP and .380.
Havent seen a little Baby Browning/Colt at the range in years.
kd7nqb
Member
Here is how I view it, people know about certain calibers as they learn more about guns.
.45acp
.357
.38
9mm
Everyone even none gun people know about these and they will never go anywhere
.17
10mm
.40
.32
.25
most gun people know about these
the list goes on with many more tiers and I dont feel confident enough to post any farther because that where my knowledge gets flaky. But the way I view it the bottom tier would be cut first. Also let me ask it this way which calibers are a pain to find now.
.45acp
.357
.38
9mm
Everyone even none gun people know about these and they will never go anywhere
.17
10mm
.40
.32
.25
most gun people know about these
the list goes on with many more tiers and I dont feel confident enough to post any farther because that where my knowledge gets flaky. But the way I view it the bottom tier would be cut first. Also let me ask it this way which calibers are a pain to find now.
gulogulo1970
Member
357 SIG, it is the 10mm of the 21st century. It will hang around but the 10mm seems to have more utility. I think the 10mm will out live the SIG, given time.
I couldn't disagree with you more. 5.56mm is the NATO round. Also, more and more, Kalashnikovs are also being chambered in 5.56.
5.56mm also dominates Service Rifle. The accuracy is very good, and load development continues. Take a look at Mk 262.
Detroit has not learned from its mistakes.
Barr
Member
I will not say a whole lot about common cartridges such as .40, .45 ACP, .270 Win, and 30-06 etc. They are here to stay for many years.
First, the specialty type cartridges that will not go anywhere anytime soon:
.32 Auto - One of the most popular autoloading cartridges during the early 20th. John Browning based many of his early designs on this cartridge. The Keltec P32 has given a lot of new life to this cartridge. Very popular in pocket sized pistols.
.38 Super - One of the favorites in IPSC. Performance wise, it is similar to a .40 but more exotic.
10mm - Originally designed as a police auto-loading cartridge specifically for the FBI, the cartridge was found to have too much power and penetration. This cartridge has found a home with hunters wanting an auto-loading cartridge.
.41 Magnum - A cartridge that has a following among hunters mostly. Originally designed as a police revolver cartridge (soung like the 10mm or .40?), it did not catch on as well as hoped because like it was said above, the guns tended to be very large for everyday wear and the penetration could be excessive in an urban environment. It is also hard to find reduced power loads unless you reload for this cartridge.
.44-40 - Very popular with cowboy action shooters. One of the biggest selling points of this cartridge when it came out in the 19th century and still is, it can be used in both rifles and revolvers.
.44 Special - With cowboy action shooting and the various smaller frame revolvers this cartridge has a new lease on life.
.454 Cassull - A cartridge that does not do much more than the .44 Magnum already does at half the cost. The .454 delivers 150% more energy at the muzzle than the .44 Magnum does already etc., it does not make the deer or grizzly any "deader". Just a neat cartridge with a lot of power that you do not find ammo for at many stores. Mostly a handloader's proposition. Most people probably shoot more .45 Colt through it than full power ammo.
.500 S&W - Lots of power and on top of the roost for pistols. Lots of good publicity and marketing hype make it much like the SW Model 29 when they first came out. Hard to come by but when you do the prices are high and it is cool to say you own one. They are starting to become easier to find once some of the less-stout hearted try them. I have shot one and it was bearable but I just like my .44 Magnum too much.
The cartridges that are dying a stagnant death:
.25 ACP - Very popular back in the first and even second half of the century for pocket pistols. Originally designed for more reliable feeding in semi-autos. About the same power as a .22 Long Rifle but much more expensive. Not many people shoot it because of the cost of buying ammo and because it is such small and almost dinky size case, not many people load it because it is such a hassle. With pistols such as the American Derringer, Keltec P9, P32, P3AT, and the various Seecamp pistols chambered in everything from the .32 ACP all the way up to 9mm and .40 there are much better alternatives for caliber and size now in small pistols.
.32 Magnum - Most people outside of the shooting world have not heard of this cartridge. Cowboy action shooting has given a little bit of life to this cartridge but not many people shoot it. A .38 Special has more power in the same size platform with little more recoil. For recoil sensitive shooters, the .38 Special can be safely downloaded to the same level and guns are much easier to find in .38 Special than .32 Magnum.
.357 Maximum - Cartridge to hit like a .41 or .44 Magnum but in a .357 diameter bullet. This cartridge was mostly intended for use in Silhouette competition. This cartridge tends to severely eat through the forcing cones and topstraps of revolvers because of the high pressures and temperatures.
.357 Sig - Neat cartridge but the cost of ammo is so high. It does not do anything better than the .40 or .357 Magnum does except maybe marginally better on penetration depending on loading. Because it is a bottle neck cartridge like the 7.25x18mm Russian, not many handloaders want to fool with it unless they are dedicated to the cartridge or really love their gun that it is chambered in.
Winchester Short and Super Short Magnums - Similar to 7mm STW, they are marginally more effective than the cartridges they are designed to replicate. Example, the .270 WSM is supposed to hit like a .30-06 class cartridge in a .277 sized bullet. The 7mm Remington Magnum already does just that. Price of ammo is usually high.
7mm STW - Ultra long range flat shooting cartridge that goes through powder and barrels like a blowtorch. Very inefficient cartridge for the amount of powder burned. Catridges like the .300 Winchester Magnum do not shoot as flat, but are just as effective and the life of the gun (namely barrel) is dramatically increased. The cost of ammo if you can find it, is dramatically high.
8mm Remington Magnum - It has spawned off several take-offs such as the 7mm STW. Another one of those cartridges where one company tried to better the other company's cartridge. In this case, the Remington 8mm tried to cut in on Winchesters' .300 Magnum and .338 Magnum.
.338 Federal - About the same as the 8mm Remington Magnum. Right cartridge, but about 1-2 decades too late.
.44 Auto-mag - This cartridge was supposed to have the performance of a .44 Magnum, but be rimless for feeding in an auto-loading pistol. Cost of ammo and scarcity of pistols made this round die rather quickly.
.460 XVR - About the same as the .454 Cassull with a little more power but same problems. Scarce availability and even higher prices for ammo. Can shoot .454 and .45 Colt in it.
.480 Ruger - Nice concept, but it does nothing that a hotly loaded .454 or a downloaded .500 will not do just as well.
First, the specialty type cartridges that will not go anywhere anytime soon:
.32 Auto - One of the most popular autoloading cartridges during the early 20th. John Browning based many of his early designs on this cartridge. The Keltec P32 has given a lot of new life to this cartridge. Very popular in pocket sized pistols.
.38 Super - One of the favorites in IPSC. Performance wise, it is similar to a .40 but more exotic.
10mm - Originally designed as a police auto-loading cartridge specifically for the FBI, the cartridge was found to have too much power and penetration. This cartridge has found a home with hunters wanting an auto-loading cartridge.
.41 Magnum - A cartridge that has a following among hunters mostly. Originally designed as a police revolver cartridge (soung like the 10mm or .40?), it did not catch on as well as hoped because like it was said above, the guns tended to be very large for everyday wear and the penetration could be excessive in an urban environment. It is also hard to find reduced power loads unless you reload for this cartridge.
.44-40 - Very popular with cowboy action shooters. One of the biggest selling points of this cartridge when it came out in the 19th century and still is, it can be used in both rifles and revolvers.
.44 Special - With cowboy action shooting and the various smaller frame revolvers this cartridge has a new lease on life.
.454 Cassull - A cartridge that does not do much more than the .44 Magnum already does at half the cost. The .454 delivers 150% more energy at the muzzle than the .44 Magnum does already etc., it does not make the deer or grizzly any "deader". Just a neat cartridge with a lot of power that you do not find ammo for at many stores. Mostly a handloader's proposition. Most people probably shoot more .45 Colt through it than full power ammo.
.500 S&W - Lots of power and on top of the roost for pistols. Lots of good publicity and marketing hype make it much like the SW Model 29 when they first came out. Hard to come by but when you do the prices are high and it is cool to say you own one. They are starting to become easier to find once some of the less-stout hearted try them. I have shot one and it was bearable but I just like my .44 Magnum too much.
The cartridges that are dying a stagnant death:
.25 ACP - Very popular back in the first and even second half of the century for pocket pistols. Originally designed for more reliable feeding in semi-autos. About the same power as a .22 Long Rifle but much more expensive. Not many people shoot it because of the cost of buying ammo and because it is such small and almost dinky size case, not many people load it because it is such a hassle. With pistols such as the American Derringer, Keltec P9, P32, P3AT, and the various Seecamp pistols chambered in everything from the .32 ACP all the way up to 9mm and .40 there are much better alternatives for caliber and size now in small pistols.
.32 Magnum - Most people outside of the shooting world have not heard of this cartridge. Cowboy action shooting has given a little bit of life to this cartridge but not many people shoot it. A .38 Special has more power in the same size platform with little more recoil. For recoil sensitive shooters, the .38 Special can be safely downloaded to the same level and guns are much easier to find in .38 Special than .32 Magnum.
.357 Maximum - Cartridge to hit like a .41 or .44 Magnum but in a .357 diameter bullet. This cartridge was mostly intended for use in Silhouette competition. This cartridge tends to severely eat through the forcing cones and topstraps of revolvers because of the high pressures and temperatures.
.357 Sig - Neat cartridge but the cost of ammo is so high. It does not do anything better than the .40 or .357 Magnum does except maybe marginally better on penetration depending on loading. Because it is a bottle neck cartridge like the 7.25x18mm Russian, not many handloaders want to fool with it unless they are dedicated to the cartridge or really love their gun that it is chambered in.
Winchester Short and Super Short Magnums - Similar to 7mm STW, they are marginally more effective than the cartridges they are designed to replicate. Example, the .270 WSM is supposed to hit like a .30-06 class cartridge in a .277 sized bullet. The 7mm Remington Magnum already does just that. Price of ammo is usually high.
7mm STW - Ultra long range flat shooting cartridge that goes through powder and barrels like a blowtorch. Very inefficient cartridge for the amount of powder burned. Catridges like the .300 Winchester Magnum do not shoot as flat, but are just as effective and the life of the gun (namely barrel) is dramatically increased. The cost of ammo if you can find it, is dramatically high.
8mm Remington Magnum - It has spawned off several take-offs such as the 7mm STW. Another one of those cartridges where one company tried to better the other company's cartridge. In this case, the Remington 8mm tried to cut in on Winchesters' .300 Magnum and .338 Magnum.
.338 Federal - About the same as the 8mm Remington Magnum. Right cartridge, but about 1-2 decades too late.
.44 Auto-mag - This cartridge was supposed to have the performance of a .44 Magnum, but be rimless for feeding in an auto-loading pistol. Cost of ammo and scarcity of pistols made this round die rather quickly.
.460 XVR - About the same as the .454 Cassull with a little more power but same problems. Scarce availability and even higher prices for ammo. Can shoot .454 and .45 Colt in it.
.480 Ruger - Nice concept, but it does nothing that a hotly loaded .454 or a downloaded .500 will not do just as well.
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pharmer
Member
.22 long. When was the last time you saw an actual box? Gotta be at least 25 years for me. Joe
mohican
Member
a lot of the Winchest short mags and super short mags may become obsolete without new rifles to shoot them in, although I like the 300 WSM in theory
Those bemoaning the death of the 41 mag, it will be kept alive, at least in a small way by handgun hunters and reloaders as it has been for years. You can figure that Ruger will always make a single action and Smith will always make a double action 41 mag.
Those bemoaning the death of the 41 mag, it will be kept alive, at least in a small way by handgun hunters and reloaders as it has been for years. You can figure that Ruger will always make a single action and Smith will always make a double action 41 mag.
Justin
Moderator Emeritus
I mistakenly bought a box of CCI .22 Long that got mixed in with a bunch of .22 LR about two years ago. Still have the ammo around somewhere.
GW
Member
That will never happen as long as the 44 magnum is popular.
Cousin Mike
Member
You folks who think .357SIG is going anywhere are only kidding yourselves. 
Fu-man Shoe
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Quite to the contrary, my good man, I believe that the 5.56/.223 will only
continue to rise in popularity, contrasting the (already in decline) eventual
fading away of the large .30 caliber cartridges so many of us love, such
as the mighty .308.
Now, mind you I am not trumpeting the death of .308. Far from it.
But you must look at greater societal trends, such as the increased
urbanization of America, and the lack of a good open place to shoot.
Increasingly, more and more ranges in this country are indoor 25 meter only.
This happens to be a great place to shoot an AR-15...much less so an M1A.
Increasingly, your typical environment is city, suburb and exurb. It seems
'the sticks' are rapidly vanishing. With hypothetical engagement distances
decreasing, and overpenetration, etc.. becoming an important concern,
it seems that weapons firing the small, fast bullets are rapidly becoming
'the thing to have'.
Also, you have to credit the fact that 5.56 caliber weapons, such as
the various incarnations of the AR-15, are very forgiving.
This is not your Daddy's M-16.
Modern AR series rifles are very reliable and easy to use,
and what's more, they are easy to hit with. Plus, the ammo is cheap and
readily available.
...
The following is purely anecdotal, so take it how you will.
Among many of the people I meet at the range who are my age and a little
older, (mid 20's to mid 40's) the common thread among us is the ownership
of guns for personal protection, and the enjoyment of shooting. Hunting has
little to do with anything. You have one season (late summer) when all the
deer hunters come and sight in thier .300 Remchesterbys, but that's it.
I live in an urban area of Virginia. The vast majority of shooters here are
not hunters.
What does that mean? A lot of things I suppose. But the thing that I notice
is that "carbine" class weapons are by far and away the most popular. The
much vaunted "Main Battle Rifle" is few and far between.
Take that how you will, but I don't think that 5.56/.223 is going anywhere.
Fu-man Shoe
mohican
Member
Going Obsolete?
The Winchester short mags except maybe the 300. It fills a need (maybe not) Without the american made line of rifles, the others will die a slow death.
The Remington ultra and short ultra mags are also candidates
The odd thing to me is that at least one of the AR platforms uses the 300 rem short mag instead of the Winchester 300 short mag. But the market for magnum level cartridges in a semi auto platform is limited.
The 480 Ruger will live on like the 41 mag. It is a handloaders niche cartridge. It fills a gap between 44 mag and 454 Casull. As long as there is brass, handgun hunters will load the 41 mag and 480 ruger.
The Winchester short mags except maybe the 300. It fills a need (maybe not) Without the american made line of rifles, the others will die a slow death.
The Remington ultra and short ultra mags are also candidates
The odd thing to me is that at least one of the AR platforms uses the 300 rem short mag instead of the Winchester 300 short mag. But the market for magnum level cartridges in a semi auto platform is limited.
The 480 Ruger will live on like the 41 mag. It is a handloaders niche cartridge. It fills a gap between 44 mag and 454 Casull. As long as there is brass, handgun hunters will load the 41 mag and 480 ruger.
Lonestar.45
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The .45 Bushmaster.
Yes, I realize it has not even come out yet, but it will be obsolete so fast it'll make your head spin.
When you only have one manufacturer making a proprietary round for a rather specialized gun type......spells doom. And we already have the .50 Beowulf (which is probably close to extinction as well), and several others already out there in this class.
I'd say second runner up is the .32NAA. For the same reasons stated above.
Yes, I realize it has not even come out yet, but it will be obsolete so fast it'll make your head spin.
When you only have one manufacturer making a proprietary round for a rather specialized gun type......spells doom. And we already have the .50 Beowulf (which is probably close to extinction as well), and several others already out there in this class.
I'd say second runner up is the .32NAA. For the same reasons stated above.
rangerruck
Member
30/40 krag.
lonewolfalpha
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Okay first off all of you guys that are saying that there are no rifles going to be chambered in the Winchester Short magnums clearly haven't looked at Browning lately. Remember them? They are still selling several rifles in these chamberings both lever and bolt (I didn't check the semi auto's or the pumps).
As for the .303 British being dead there is still a lot of high quality factory ammo available from all the major makers, I know because I just bought three boxes of Federal 180 grain soft point loaded with Speer hot core bullets for my old Parker Hale/Lee Enfield bush gun.
The 30-30 is also going nowhere soon, I know a lot of guys up here that still swear by them.
The .303 Savage? Sadly amo is drying up fast, I saw four Savage Model 99's at the last gun show I was at but no one could or would get cartridges for them.
The 7.62x54R Russian? Going hard according to the ammo availability that I've seen, even Winchester is still loading it although I am uncertain if thier softpoint is still available. Again prices are the same as .308, just like for the .303 British.
That said, even the .444 Marlin is going strong except most of the guys that I know who shoot this one handload it.
So which cartridge is soon to die next? That's a tough one so how about 8x56R unless you live in Europe?
As for the .303 British being dead there is still a lot of high quality factory ammo available from all the major makers, I know because I just bought three boxes of Federal 180 grain soft point loaded with Speer hot core bullets for my old Parker Hale/Lee Enfield bush gun.
The 30-30 is also going nowhere soon, I know a lot of guys up here that still swear by them.
The .303 Savage? Sadly amo is drying up fast, I saw four Savage Model 99's at the last gun show I was at but no one could or would get cartridges for them.
The 7.62x54R Russian? Going hard according to the ammo availability that I've seen, even Winchester is still loading it although I am uncertain if thier softpoint is still available. Again prices are the same as .308, just like for the .303 British.
That said, even the .444 Marlin is going strong except most of the guys that I know who shoot this one handload it.
So which cartridge is soon to die next? That's a tough one so how about 8x56R unless you live in Europe?
Here's my picks:
GOING...GOING....GONE:
.45 GAP
.45 Bushmaster (other big bores have lead in AR platform)
Mentioned by others but I think HERE to STAY:
6.8 SPC
6.5 Grendel
why? the AR-15 platform is very popular and these two make good medium game hunting rounds. Additionally, the 6.5 Grendel is a great long range shooter (target or hunting) that outdoes the 5.56 at all ranges and outdoes the .308 at really long range.
GOING...GOING....GONE:
.45 GAP
.45 Bushmaster (other big bores have lead in AR platform)
Mentioned by others but I think HERE to STAY:
6.8 SPC
6.5 Grendel
why? the AR-15 platform is very popular and these two make good medium game hunting rounds. Additionally, the 6.5 Grendel is a great long range shooter (target or hunting) that outdoes the 5.56 at all ranges and outdoes the .308 at really long range.
SniperStraz
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- 871
I'd say...
...The .22 long is about to get its butt kicked by the .17.
...The .22 long is about to get its butt kicked by the .17.
Thumper5
Member
And I'd Say....
The .25 ACP and .32 ACP are ready for the trash heap with the introduction of tiny, high-quality practical pocket pistols (like the Kel Tec) in .380. Why would anyone buy a gun in .25/.32 today?
The .25 ACP and .32 ACP are ready for the trash heap with the introduction of tiny, high-quality practical pocket pistols (like the Kel Tec) in .380. Why would anyone buy a gun in .25/.32 today?
lonewolfalpha
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Here's one that is going and gone, the .280 Ross. Has anyone else here even heard of it? It pretty much shot 7mm Remington Magnum velocity about fourty years before the magnum in the old Ross straight pull rifles but with a bullet in between .308 and .284.
Manedwolf
member
Nope. Speer makes Gold Dot in both. Winchester just came out with an Expanding Point. Hornady makes ammo for both. S&B sells a lot of 6.35 Browning.
They're not going away anytime soon.
BTW, caliber aside, the Beretta Jetfire in .25 is still a better, more reliable gun than the KelTec in .380. Depends on what your priority is.
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