North Korea Declaring War against USA
- Thread starter Lonestar
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Not quite. It was Mao's effort to regain control after the failure of the Communist Party after the utter failure of his Great Leap Forward plan. It wasn't about eliminating western ideas (which in many ways the Great Leap Forward had been intended towards adopting). It was about eliminating those who did or might oppose him, and creating a cult of personality in which every good Chinese quoted from his little red book as if it was holy scripture, all with the intent of showing you were a good enough Communist not to get killed.
As for the famines, the casualties didn't result from Mao's inaction, they resulted from his actions in the Great Leap Forward. He attempted to bring China firmly into the 20th Century and becoming an industrial power by ignoring farming and requiring everyone to partake such spurious activites as having backyard foundries. People died because the penalty for disobeying his orders was condemnation and death.
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Art Eatman
Moderator In Memoriam
quatin, would you check back to my Post #62, and respond, please?
, Art
, Artrobertbank
Member
Given about a third of your National Debt is held by China I doubt China will ever be a threat to the U.S. and is probably your biggest ally. Well the latter might be a stretch but they are covering your o/d at the bank right now. The US might be fighting in Iraq but the Chinese are writing the cheques against GWB's IOU's.
North Korea will get away with this as long as the rest of the world allows it to happen and they will. Look at Pakistan and what happened there when the world wringed their hands when they got the bomb.
Might be easier to cut a deal with the Chinese to turn NK into a glass factory and get it over with. The Liberals would whine and write books into the next century but the threat would be done with.
Take Care
Bob
North Korea will get away with this as long as the rest of the world allows it to happen and they will. Look at Pakistan and what happened there when the world wringed their hands when they got the bomb.
Might be easier to cut a deal with the Chinese to turn NK into a glass factory and get it over with. The Liberals would whine and write books into the next century but the threat would be done with.
Take Care
Bob
Keith Wheeler
Member
Based on the ability of the EMPs to nullify all modern technology, probably something in a smooth-bore musket, or maybe even a match-lock.
Yeah, that's not fair comparing Taiwan vs China post civil war, because China had to deal with a war torn country with no foreign support. Taiwan had to deal with a now small population with heavy foreign aid and pretty much had to obey the west in order to have their survival line.
I just have to disagree, it now comes on how you interpret what Mao was trying to do with the Cultural Revolution. It may be a combination of revenge/communist doctrine/control. The Cultural Revolution was so senseless and pointless it's hard to dictate what the real goal was. One thing I know for certain was part of it was about eliminating western influences. People were banned from playing the violin because classical music was "western". Also, the great famines did occur during that period, there were real droughts. Explain it however you want, but one person can't possibly personally execute 30 million people and still not suffer a rebellion. I'm not saying that the party didn't jail opposition, they did and most of them died in jail, but this claim of "executing 20-30 million people" is an exaggeration.
beerslurpy
member
My take:
EMP not a threat
Very capable EMP bombs have been around since the 80s in the US arsenal. But you can harden stuff against EMP and I think it is safe to assume that our carriers are hardened against that sort of thing.
Taiwan not in immediate danger
Chinese have inadequate sea and airlift capability to effect an invasion. If they somehow acquired this ability without us knowing, they still lack the ability to defeat current Taiwanese assets capable of destroying such transport craft before they land. I have heard estimates of 1-2 million chinese miltary losses plus enormous amounts of material to succeed in an invasion. That would completely empty out their military from top to bottom and flatten their economy to boot. If any sort of retaliation occurs, they will be that much worse off. If the US steps in, expect china's economy to take 50-100 years to recover IMO.
China's army not actually that big
China's army is mostly a big government run boy scouts/4H program for political indoctrination. A significant portion of the PLA is involved in agriculture and industry for the financial enrichment of the generals. Lots of wasted energy there. Being able to march and drill is different being able to fire and maneuver against people trying to kill you. They have a few hundred thousand real troops.
Japan not in real danger
Japan could get hit, but not hard enough to do permanent damage. If they did, there would almost certainly be an irrationally strong response from the US. Japan might begin rearming again.
Japan not as advanced as you might think
Remember that the japanese are copiers and refiners, not innovators. They are taking baby steps towards powered armor and color-changing fabrics, but they are a LONG way off from something portable that can be used without an enormous amount of preparation.
I have seen their "thermoptic camo" and it only looked convincing from one narrow angle, it required an external computer and cameras to judge the background and it definitley wasnt portable. What the US wants is a lot more complicated.
EMP not a threat
Very capable EMP bombs have been around since the 80s in the US arsenal. But you can harden stuff against EMP and I think it is safe to assume that our carriers are hardened against that sort of thing.
Taiwan not in immediate danger
Chinese have inadequate sea and airlift capability to effect an invasion. If they somehow acquired this ability without us knowing, they still lack the ability to defeat current Taiwanese assets capable of destroying such transport craft before they land. I have heard estimates of 1-2 million chinese miltary losses plus enormous amounts of material to succeed in an invasion. That would completely empty out their military from top to bottom and flatten their economy to boot. If any sort of retaliation occurs, they will be that much worse off. If the US steps in, expect china's economy to take 50-100 years to recover IMO.
China's army not actually that big
China's army is mostly a big government run boy scouts/4H program for political indoctrination. A significant portion of the PLA is involved in agriculture and industry for the financial enrichment of the generals. Lots of wasted energy there. Being able to march and drill is different being able to fire and maneuver against people trying to kill you. They have a few hundred thousand real troops.
Japan not in real danger
Japan could get hit, but not hard enough to do permanent damage. If they did, there would almost certainly be an irrationally strong response from the US. Japan might begin rearming again.
Japan not as advanced as you might think
Remember that the japanese are copiers and refiners, not innovators. They are taking baby steps towards powered armor and color-changing fabrics, but they are a LONG way off from something portable that can be used without an enormous amount of preparation.
I have seen their "thermoptic camo" and it only looked convincing from one narrow angle, it required an external computer and cameras to judge the background and it definitley wasnt portable. What the US wants is a lot more complicated.
beerslurpy
member
Mao spent years selling his country's food to the soviets in return for factories and technological help. As a result, 30 million chinese starved to death and 30 million were shot resisting his tyranny. His goal was simple- a dominant place in the world for China. He was after raw power, nothing more complicated than that.
The current chinese government is no less evil.
The current chinese government is no less evil.
He should be paranoid. China was colonized, raided and beaten down by Europe & US (boxer rebellion). Afterwards it was invaded by Japan. Don't you think national security would be a priority after that? Mao did force the continuing export on grain even during the famine, to keep up his "reputation" of a successful China. The worst of the famine was in 1958, one of the worst weathered years of the time. There were also several natural catastrophes 3 years prior to it. It was a stupid self-bolstering idea to continue exports, but there was still a famine, even if Mao was in self-denial it was happening doesn't mean you should be in denial that it happened too.
Bartholomew Roberts
Member
Mao probably set China back 50 years or more... imagine where we would be today if China had actually developed like a normal economy during Mao's reign.
As for the BS-Plan... I'll leave the EMP aspects for those more knowledgable.
Well here a few questions to ask: How many aircraft have sufficient range to reach Taiwan and have any significant loiter time there? What is the sortie rate of the PLAF? How many airfields are located close enough to be used in an attack on Taiwan and what is their maximum capacity?
How many aircraft can China put into action once those restraints are considered?
So a purpose designed amphibious lift ship can only hold 100-250 troops; but a merchant ship pressed into service will hold ten times that number? Why even bother building amphibs then? I think your speculation there is exceedingly optimistic. Also very optimistic is your assumption that the existing amphibious lift capability is around 50k. Pretty much every study I've read on the subject suggests an amphibious lift capability of 30k troops max at current levels with a projected growth to 60k by 2015.
Finally, one advantage amphibs do have over merchantmen is that they can LAND troops instead of merely transporting them. Do you really want to bet your entire assault on being able to successfully seize and hold harbors intact with a tiny fraction of your landing force while the rest of the force spends several days disembarking?
Spoken with the optimism of someone who has never tried to get 20 people organized towards a common goal, let alone 200,000 I doubt you could even unload the initial 100,000 troops in 36 hours. Take a look at the historic problems faced during WWII by nations with far greater specialized amphib capability than the Chinese possess.
What this doesn't tell us is what did ROC consider a "full scale invasion?" Without knowing what capability they attributed to the Chinese, it is difficult to extrapolate whether the scenario was based on current day projections or on China 20-years in the future.
Finally as regards the "Distract us with North Korea and attack Taiwan" scenario that originally started this sidebar discussion, why would initiate a plan now that involves the loss of 2/3 of your military forces, nuclear weapons, and destabilizing every economy in your current list of trading partners?
Internet discussion forums are basically the only place the Chinese will be invading Taiwan anytime in the next 10 years.
As for the BS-Plan... I'll leave the EMP aspects for those more knowledgable.
Borachon said:
Well here a few questions to ask: How many aircraft have sufficient range to reach Taiwan and have any significant loiter time there? What is the sortie rate of the PLAF? How many airfields are located close enough to be used in an attack on Taiwan and what is their maximum capacity?
How many aircraft can China put into action once those restraints are considered?
So a purpose designed amphibious lift ship can only hold 100-250 troops; but a merchant ship pressed into service will hold ten times that number? Why even bother building amphibs then? I think your speculation there is exceedingly optimistic. Also very optimistic is your assumption that the existing amphibious lift capability is around 50k. Pretty much every study I've read on the subject suggests an amphibious lift capability of 30k troops max at current levels with a projected growth to 60k by 2015.
Finally, one advantage amphibs do have over merchantmen is that they can LAND troops instead of merely transporting them. Do you really want to bet your entire assault on being able to successfully seize and hold harbors intact with a tiny fraction of your landing force while the rest of the force spends several days disembarking?
Spoken with the optimism of someone who has never tried to get 20 people organized towards a common goal, let alone 200,000
I doubt you could even unload the initial 100,000 troops in 36 hours. Take a look at the historic problems faced during WWII by nations with far greater specialized amphib capability than the Chinese possess.What this doesn't tell us is what did ROC consider a "full scale invasion?" Without knowing what capability they attributed to the Chinese, it is difficult to extrapolate whether the scenario was based on current day projections or on China 20-years in the future.
Finally as regards the "Distract us with North Korea and attack Taiwan" scenario that originally started this sidebar discussion, why would initiate a plan now that involves the loss of 2/3 of your military forces, nuclear weapons, and destabilizing every economy in your current list of trading partners?
Internet discussion forums are basically the only place the Chinese will be invading Taiwan anytime in the next 10 years.
rbernie
Contributing Member
All strategic and most all theater-level weapons or communications systems that have been deemed as mission essential during a trans-attack or post-attack scenario are EMP hardened and tested as such. It's real and it happens (and it's really really cool to watch).
Are your average antiquated PRC-77's or AN/VRC-12 invulnerable to EMP? No. But if it's important enough of a weapons or comm system, you bet your sweet backside that EMP hardening and testing was part of the SOW/spec for that system (e.g SINCGARS and the forthcoming JTRS Cluster 1). In short, in-country EMP isn't a huge issue for the US warfighter.
What was being discussed during the Congressional briefings is that the US infrastructure in general (e.g. circuit- and packet-switched networking, electrical generation within the CONUS) is not specifically EMP hardened. There is no doubt that the DoD warfighting capability *does* have some interdependancies upon these systems. (Cheyenne Mountain and Site R and other such fun places might be able to generate their own juice, but places like Tinker and Davis and MacDill still need local juice to keep the hangers running.)
But I doubt that NoKorea is in a position to take down the US electrical grid any time soon.
JohnBT
Member
"North Korea Declaring War against USA"
Interesting title, but shouldn't it say "Threatening to Declare War" or "Might Declare War"?
John
Interesting title, but shouldn't it say "Threatening to Declare War" or "Might Declare War"?
John
dragongoddess
member
for those with an inquiring mind check out the term faraday cage.
Also if you want to take out equipment with EMP your missile guidance systems are going to have to be accurate. And then there is that problematic Inverse Square Law that applies to a point source of linear waves.
Also if you want to take out equipment with EMP your missile guidance systems are going to have to be accurate. And then there is that problematic Inverse Square Law that applies to a point source of linear waves.
Borachon
Member
I've always loved that phrase, "safe to assume". I use it myself quite a lot.
Of course, I'm not a threat to regional stability in Eastern Asia with my finger on a nuke either.
So all those fancy new things they produce in Japan that only end up here two or three years after they sweep thru Japan aren't advanced?
They got recordable DVD's before we did. Hand held pocket computers before we did. Japan is a very advanced nation in my opinion.
If they decide to build a nuclear weapon and a delivery system they can have it ready inside of three months. (and make it smaller and cheaper too
) Ninety days from now. They've already got the nuclear material (18 tons of it...enough for thousands of weapons), and a space program use to launching payloads into space. That they have chosen not to build nukes and missiles is a political decision, not because they lack the capacity to do so.With a population of 1.2 billion, China has access to a reserve of roughly 250 million military age men (I'm sexist...I'm leaving out the women). Probably more than this figure actually. Mandatory military service for males is required. Conscripts serve 3 to 4 years in the military. China's active military isn't as large as some other military's in the world, but it's reserve is HUGE. Just like Israel's...per capita anyway.
If China went to war and lost 1% of its population, that would still be 12 million men. 12 million of the most bumbling slack jawed illiterate cannon fodder, armed with pitchforks, would still be a formidable force for any nation to deal with. Trust me...they won't be armed with pitchforks. And China is use to losing far more men during war time. World War II cost China 30 million. The Cultural Revolution probably killed about the same. Huge population death doesn't scare China like it does us.
Actually the Chinese reserves get more training and serve longer than many other Armies. They probably aren't slack jawed idiots (well...some of them will be.)
Borachon
Member
Absolutely no idea. In spite of my repeated attempts,and quite blatant bribery attempts, Chinese military leaders have not yet seen fit to brief me on military capabilities within the PLA.
But...the distance between some of the nearest Chinese mainland airbases and Taiwan is about 110 miles, 120 miles etc. Most of the fighter and close support bombers I've heard of can cover that distance in about 15 to 30 minutes. Figure Taiwan is 250 miles long, and 90 miles wide...so....they ought to be able to fly, hit a target and return to base within 90 minutes....assuming that nothing shoots them down in the process.
And although I am a blooming idiot in terms of what China has....globalsecurity is not. Here's their opinion.
Again, it should be remembered that I'm of the opinion that Taiwan's air defense capability could be retarded by an EMP attack prior to any invasion....an opinion that is not shared by the majority of people on this board who view EMP as being akin to blown sand, or a muddy field in terms of being a combat problem. If I'm right (and they are wrong) the 3-to-1 capability of China might jump to 30 to 1 if Taiwanese airplanes aren't capable of flying for one reason or another.
Borachon
Member
3rd wave EMP effects can bypass a Faraday cage, can they not?
Edit:
Sorry. I had to look up the term again. It's not 3rd wave...it's "late time effect".
Taken from here: http://www.milnet.com/e-bomb.htm
Then again...maybe China wouldn't even need to go nuclear to get the EMP effect. http://www.unitedstatesaction.com/emp-terror.htm
If China really went crazy/stuipd and attacked Taiwan, I bet 1/3 or 1/4 of the population would take advantage of the perfect opportunity.
The mood on the streets would probably be something like this.
"Hey where did all the thugs/army go? They're attacking Taiwan?!? Are they #*$&ing nuts!! My aunt/uncle/cousin/grandfather lives there!! The hell with this, time for a revolution. Remember Tienemin Square!!!"
Most of the people in China are very pissed with the horrible pollution (poisoned drinking water and rivers recently) and insane corruption. Kicking people out of their homes to build Olympics Facilities that will go unused immediately after and cost tons of $$$$$ is making the people pretty ticked too. I bet the expensive (wonder what that costs? ) manned space program clearly using copies of Russian Spacecraft kind of dulls the "Wow, we're in space, occasionally, for a few hours....." factor too.
The mood on the streets would probably be something like this.
"Hey where did all the thugs/army go? They're attacking Taiwan?!? Are they #*$&ing nuts!! My aunt/uncle/cousin/grandfather lives there!! The hell with this, time for a revolution. Remember Tienemin Square!!!"
Most of the people in China are very pissed with the horrible pollution (poisoned drinking water and rivers recently) and insane corruption. Kicking people out of their homes to build Olympics Facilities that will go unused immediately after and cost tons of $$$$$ is making the people pretty ticked too. I bet the expensive (wonder what that costs?
) manned space program clearly using copies of Russian Spacecraft kind of dulls the "Wow, we're in space, occasionally, for a few hours....." factor too.Borachon
Member
Okay...that's enough about EMP. South Park is on.
Thin Black Line
Member
Declaring War? Really? So what.
NK uses a low-yield nuke on us, we turn them into a parking lot with many
high-yield nukes. They know this. They won't attack us. Quit buying the
AM radio hype. We handled far more with the soviets for decades. This
is like a SWAT team going from facing a platoon of trained snipers to some
loud-mouthed little thug with a .25 pocket pistol.
NK is a non-issue for the US. In fact, isn't this still considered a UN issue?
Why should it be our issue? Why continue to make it ours? Just because
some idiot on the radio or TV tells you it should be? I'm an American,
not cannon-fodder for the Global-cop army.
Let the Japanese develop their own nukes and counter them. Just like the
world let the Paks develop them to counter India. There, problem solved.
Taiwan and China? Pffft. Why not worry about Tibet then?
NK uses a low-yield nuke on us, we turn them into a parking lot with many
high-yield nukes. They know this. They won't attack us. Quit buying the
AM radio hype. We handled far more with the soviets for decades. This
is like a SWAT team going from facing a platoon of trained snipers to some
loud-mouthed little thug with a .25 pocket pistol.
NK is a non-issue for the US. In fact, isn't this still considered a UN issue?
Why should it be our issue? Why continue to make it ours? Just because
some idiot on the radio or TV tells you it should be? I'm an American,
not cannon-fodder for the Global-cop army.
Let the Japanese develop their own nukes and counter them. Just like the
world let the Paks develop them to counter India. There, problem solved.
Taiwan and China? Pffft. Why not worry about Tibet then?
rbernie
Contributing Member
More bunk in the form of pseudo-science, and from such a reputable source at that.
As far as I understand this stuff, the described effect can be useful only if the sites interconnect their potential grid to each other (aka 'floating ground') instead of using the Earth as a common potential reference, or if the filtering already in commercial use to reduce localized EMI effects is overloaded and blows 'shorted' rather than 'opened'. Neither of those scenarios are likely, since they've been designed around for fifty years. NOBODY designs EMI filtration to blow 'short' and nobody designs facilities interconnects with floating ground instead of using good ol' Ma Earth as the common potential.
Of course, since most of the telco interconnects these days are fiber, the real vulnerability to the communications grid is on the power side and in the local copper loop.
Good luck targeting NK with a high-atmosphere EMP without frying stuff in South Korea, Japan, and China and Russia too.
Initial EMP from either a nuke or a conventional gadget is almost entirely reflected by a solid metal surface.
I think what that article is concerned about (even though it talks mostly about conventional EMP) is that nuclear detonations cause longer-term EMP in several different ways, depending on whether it's a low-altitude or high-altitude detonation. That lower-frequency EMP induces large currents in exposed conductors, including first-line EMP shielding itself. That current will generate EM radiation that can disrupt the electronics, unless maybe there are multiple layers of shielding.
See http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/emp.htm
The options for a nuclear power are these:
1. Detonate a nuke at low altitude and get a strong but very localized effect -- largely secondary to the disastrous physical effects of a nuke.
2. Launch a thermonuclear bomb on a rocket and detonate it in space. Unfortunately, that knocks out everyone's electronics, which won't be a problem for North Korea because their citizens live in the dark ages anyway, but it would be a disaster for China because they'd have civil unrest in cities in addition to having to fight a war.
And any sort of high-altitude EMP would _really_ piss off Japan. Both NK and China would want to think hard about the long-term consequences of a militarized Japan.
Borachon
Member
Yep. Very true. And entirely militarily correct.
China suffers a shortage of amphibious landing craft though. So using only amphib vessals would make transportation of large numbers of troops impossible.
They do possess a number of cargo and merchant vessals. So if they decide to attack Taiwan anytime soon, that's what they'd have to use. They do have a number of small craft like hovercraft and small boats that could ferry troops ashore. You are right though that this would take time. To move 200,000 troops ashore though shouldn't take more than 20 hours. How did I arrive at that figure? 200,000 troops divided by the 100 (the number of troops a small ferry from the merchant man to the shore could hold) divided by the number of such ferries, which I'm estimating at 100...although actually the Chinese have close to three times as many, but it would probably take more than an hour to load and move the troops, but with 3 times as many ferries it ought to work out somewhere like that. Tanks and jeeps and other equipment could take longer. But it would be enough to establish a bridgehead.
Understand that I'm not suggesting China is about to attack Taiwan today. I'm merely saying that the "impossibility" of China attacking Taiwan may not be true either. It would demand a lot of careful forethought and planning, but that it is not outside the capability of China to do.
There are a thousand other concerns right now that would keep China from attacking Taiwan. Economic concerns being one. Having their troops tied up attacking Taiwan when they might be needed in Korea to fight in a NK/US war is another.
I'm sure if we asked the SWAT team who they'd rather face....a career criminal who knows what he's facing and knows his own capabilities (ie the Russians) or face a loud mouth punk who thinks he stands a chance (ie North Korea), I'm pretty sure the SWAT team will tell you the punk is more dangerous. He doesn't know the score. He doesn't realize he stands no chance and that it's time to give up. He's the kind of guy who hides under the floorboard, lets the Swat team walk over him, and then shoots up from underneath with his .25. Does he die one second later? Often, yes. Or does the SWAT team take a couple of casualties and fall back? Sometimes that happens too.
If North Korea announced today that they are doing a nuclear test tomorrow and that it would prove to the world that they possessed nuclear weapons, and then launched a missile that exploded a nuclear weapon as an airburst halfway between South Korea, Japan and Okinawa, what would the US do?
More likely than not this type of airburst would put out a big EMP (it could be positioned for just this effect) but very few people would die. North Korea could then scream "Ooops!". "We're soooo new to this nuclear thing. We didn't understand what would happen." (Riiiight....)
Is the US going to turn them into a parking lot because they generated an EMP pulse over Okinawa? According to most of the electrical engineers here, we wouldn't because their "accidental" placement and firing of the nuke would have little or no effect. Can the US justify to the rest of the nuclear armed nations of the world turning NK into a parking lot at this point? I don't think so. Even if the nuke fried every electrical component onboard every one of our ships, and left our jets totally ruined, we probably still wouldn't launch a nuclear weapon against North Korea. No one (or very few) people would have died because of the North Korean "accidental" EMP generated pulse. The most we would do in retaliation....the most we COULD do politically....is generate a pulse over NK. That's tough to do without hitting parts of South Korea and Russia and China. After that we could launch a conventional war....assuming our assets in the region actually still functioned after being EMP'd.
Think of it this way. SWAT teams COULD go door to door, arrest hundreds of citizens at a time, and intensively process them "downtown" for hours and hours until they found the one subject they were looking for. They have the material capability to do that...but the political will to do it isn't there.
Unless North Korea hits us directly with a nuclear weapon, I don't see us launching nukes on them.
Swat officer shot. Suspect lives.
http://www.abcactionnews.com/stories/2006/07/060726swat.shtml
Another one shot. Suspect not even shot.
http://www.officer.com/article/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=29276
Another one shot.
http://www.policeone.com/SWAT/articles/79704
4 more shot
http://www.emergency.com/gwntshot.htm
Another
http://www.press-enterprise.com/newsarchive/1998/11/01/909897392.html
Shot in the foot
http://www.policeone.com/policeone/frontend/parser.cfm?object=News&operation=full_news&id=72177
Actually the amount of these type of stories surprised me. Even more surprising is the number of Swat team members shot and killed during training exercises. Those stories outnumber criminal attacks by a mile.
North Korea may be a wannbe thug with one big gun going up against the Ninja Master of Democracy...but they'll probably get the first shot. And sometimes, the thugs hit what they shoot at.
Borachon,
So to sum up your posts on why China will overpower Taiwan:
1. They will use a weapon system that has never been used before which will: A. Work perfectly the first time. B. Cause no problems whatsoever for them. C. Totally disable our forces (even though we've been preparing for this kind of thing since 1952 or so). D. Totally disable all of Taiwan's weapon systems (even though they bought them from us, see C. )
2. Then they will achieve air superiority because of #1 and a combination of: A. Having thousands of extra obsolete aircraft. B. Being able to field them way out of proportion to their logistics and available airfields. C. Shoot down Taiwanese F16s and US carrier based F18s with crop dusters and cargo planes with guys with AK47s lashed under the wings. D. The Aegis missile cruisers (the world's best anti-aircraft platforms) will probably not work because of the super EMP or perhaps their crews will be devoured by genetically engineered Chinese aquatic super-pumas, either way, we'll disregard the giant multi-ship Aegis shield.
3. Then they will move several million troops across the ocean on barges, cargo ships, and rafts made of styrafoam beer coolers. We will assume that the super EMP will cause the Taiwanese to be too stupid to burn their piers so that these non-amphibious craft will be able to offload. That's assuming that US carrier based forces aren't shooting them in the open ocean like fish in a barrel.
(also we'll asssume that our super advanced spy aircraft and world's best spy satelites didn't detect a million troops massing on the coast)
The Chinese troops that do manage to hit the beaches will not have any heavy weapons, and will be basically light infantry. However we will assume that all Taiwanese armor, mechanized forces, and artillery were neautralized by #1. (note 1C).
4. The Chinese will do this because it benefits them so greatly to lose their entire army, ruin their economy, lose all of their trading partners, probably collapse their government, and invite nuclear war against the US. In return they will get a tiny island filled with valuable electronics and manufacturing industires (whoops too bad they slagged it all with #1!)
Did I get that all right?
If you will excuse me, I've got to get back to digging my fallout shelter in the backyard.
So to sum up your posts on why China will overpower Taiwan:
1. They will use a weapon system that has never been used before which will: A. Work perfectly the first time. B. Cause no problems whatsoever for them. C. Totally disable our forces (even though we've been preparing for this kind of thing since 1952 or so). D. Totally disable all of Taiwan's weapon systems (even though they bought them from us, see C. )
2. Then they will achieve air superiority because of #1 and a combination of: A. Having thousands of extra obsolete aircraft. B. Being able to field them way out of proportion to their logistics and available airfields. C. Shoot down Taiwanese F16s and US carrier based F18s with crop dusters and cargo planes with guys with AK47s lashed under the wings. D. The Aegis missile cruisers (the world's best anti-aircraft platforms) will probably not work because of the super EMP or perhaps their crews will be devoured by genetically engineered Chinese aquatic super-pumas, either way, we'll disregard the giant multi-ship Aegis shield.
3. Then they will move several million troops across the ocean on barges, cargo ships, and rafts made of styrafoam beer coolers. We will assume that the super EMP will cause the Taiwanese to be too stupid to burn their piers so that these non-amphibious craft will be able to offload. That's assuming that US carrier based forces aren't shooting them in the open ocean like fish in a barrel.
(also we'll asssume that our super advanced spy aircraft and world's best spy satelites didn't detect a million troops massing on the coast)
The Chinese troops that do manage to hit the beaches will not have any heavy weapons, and will be basically light infantry. However we will assume that all Taiwanese armor, mechanized forces, and artillery were neautralized by #1. (note 1C).
4. The Chinese will do this because it benefits them so greatly to lose their entire army, ruin their economy, lose all of their trading partners, probably collapse their government, and invite nuclear war against the US. In return they will get a tiny island filled with valuable electronics and manufacturing industires (whoops too bad they slagged it all with #1!)
Did I get that all right?
If you will excuse me, I've got to get back to digging my fallout shelter in the backyard.
Soooo, the world would believe that they're bright enough to build and launch an effective EMP tuned nuke, yet not bright enough to comprehend the effects of such a weapon. Everyone on the whole planet is too stupid to figure that out, except you. And the world is more comfortable letting a nation of starving desperate savants figure out nuclear weapons via trial and error, over some of the most valuable real estate on the planet, rather than allow the US to take action? That's your line of conjecture. Dude, we sooo need to play poker.
Two pages ago we were beating a dead horse, this is now a pile of pulp with a saddle.
Check this out...
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ballistic_Missile_Defense_Key_To_Defending_Taiwan.html
Sunburn missiles, even the Aegis is not a "missile proof" system, it's "missile resistant". It only takes one missile to slip through and take out a ship. I believe the Russians designed it to take out US air craft carriers.
Also..
http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2001/Autumn/art3-au1.htm
China has one of the world's largest anti-air artillery supply. If Taiwan deploys their aircraft, they would suffer massive loses especially in such a concentrated area in the Taiwan Strait. What little China has in an air force would go largely unchallenged afterwards(at least by air).
In spite of all this, I have to agree that China is not capable of taking over Taiwan constructively. There's a lack of air power, naval power and amphibious capabilities, that is crucial to HOLD territory. However, let's realize China is not planning a physical take over of Taiwan, yet. China is building weapons of "intimidation", such as long range artillery that can reach over the strait of Taiwan.
http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/china/missile-miles.htm
If you look at Chinese military spending, there is a very small dribble going towards an offensive air force, an offensive blue water navy and amphibious forces. China's military is largely defensive. Funding has been changed recently however, with China purchasing Russian J-14 fighters and Sorynemy Class destroyers. This situation may change 20-30 years from now if funding continues.
In terms of N.Korea, you have to admit. If N.Korea did not make a nuke, Bush would not have said for CERTAIN we won't invade. A nuke is a large bargaining chip. It's a whole new ball game now.
- Status