Private citizens more effective than police in mass shootings.

Status
Not open for further replies.

kcshooter

Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2008
Messages
1,274
Location
Kansas City, MO
Interesting facts. People can say that a CCW holder in that situation wouldn't be effective, or that more bullets flying wouldn't be a solution, but statistics are what they are.


http://dailyanarchist.com/2012/07/31/auditing-shooting-rampage-statistics/

"The average number of people killed in mass shootings when stopped by police is 14.3

The average number of people killed in a mass shooting when stopped by a civilian is 2.3."




This doesn't surprise me. It took the police about 2 minutes, IIRC to arrive at the Colorado shooting scene. That's pretty fast response time for police, but that's an eternity when someone's shooting. A citizen with a gun on the scene has a much better chance of stopping the threat quickly than waiting for police.


(Regardless of the website's name, it's still interesting info.)
 
Last edited:
I wish I could take a look. The URL makes me not sure if I want to click on it at work. :scrutiny:
 
That was very well done, he took a very analytical view and separated much of the wheat from the chafe IMO. I found the last part to be quite interesting given the contentious views from the now locked Aurora thread.

Second, within the civilian category 10 of the 15 shootings were stopped by unarmed civilians. What’s amazing about that is that whether armed or not, when a civilian plays hero it seems to save a lot of lives. The courthouse shooting in Tyler, Texas was the only incident where the heroic civilian was killed. In that incident the hero was armed with a handgun and the villain was armed with an assault rifle and body armor. If you compare the average of people killed in shootings stopped by armed civilians and unarmed civilians you get 1.8 and 2.6, but that’s not nearly as significant as the difference between a proactive civilian, and a cowering civilian who waits for police.

So, given that far less people die in rampage shootings stopped by a proactive civilian, only civilians have any opportunity to stop rampage shootings in roughly half of incidents, and armed civilians do better on average than unarmed civilians, wouldn’t you want those heroic individuals who risk their lives to save others to have every tool available at their disposal?
Reading the samples he used I speculate that there was probably little professional tactical training of the citizens and almost universal tactical training of the LEO's.
It looks to me that the average citizen can make a huge difference when they are motivated.
 
I agree that concerned and armed citizens have a much better chance of stopping a mass shooter. I admire all who did such a heroic thing.. Would that there were many more of us who would and may yet do the same thing.
 
The OP's article's information is interesting. Private citizens are more effective because they are there nearly 100% of the time. Note that there have been several mass shootings at military installations and police stations where there are virtually no private citizens involved and incidents where you have both responding.

However, the listing he provides is bogus. He provides a purely supeficial and decidedly unuseful in the sense of he isn't actually resolving the claims he is making.

He listed 23 killed at Luby's after a shootout with police by the gunman (suicide). He failed to note the terrible failures of at least 2 private citizens who charged the shooter and were gunned down long before the police were intervening.

He listed 16 killed by Whitman after being shot by police. He failed to note responded citizens shooting at Whitman or the fact that one of the people shooting Whitman as part of the responding entry team was not police.

He list 7 killed by Jeff Weise at Red Lake High School before suicide after being confronted by the police. He failed to note Weise was stabbed in the stomach with a pencil by Jeff May who was subsequently shot multiple times, but credited with saving the lives of several who escaped the room they were in because of his actions.

He listed 3 killed by Peter Odighizuwa at The Appalachian School in Grundy, Virginia who was stopped by 3 students. Undoubtedly, he considers these to be private citizens because he doesn't know what he is talking about. Two were off duty cops, both of whom retrieved guns from their vehicles, one grabbing a ballistic vest as well. The other was private and others pursued Odighizuwa.

I wil stop there because I think I have made my point. If you take the time to research the list in detail, you will find that many of the shootings ultimately resolved by cops first involved failures by attempts to be resolved by people inside. Yes, shootings resolved by private citizens will end in a lower number, but a large percentage of such shootings involve private citizens (or at Ft. Hood, other soldiers) attempting to stop the shooter and failing. So it could also be argued that incidents where private citizens attempts to stop the shooter and fail and have to rely on the cops result in a higher number of deaths and a high number of woundings and deaths by the failed private citizen responders. Okay, who wants to be cannon fodder? If you are successful, you will stop the shooter and save lots of lives. If not, you will most likely be injured or killed and if injured, likely punitively injured severely because you end up pissing off the shooter. Of course, the reality is that if you don't attempt to stop the shooter, he may still kill you, just not as soon, and if unchecked, he will continue to kill others. It is HIGH risk to intervene. It is still HIGH risk to just be present, however.

Also as noted, at least one of his incidents involved cops he thought were private citizens and he failed to note private citizens intervening with cops.

His use of the available data is decidedly a mess in terms of being able to draw the conclusions he has drawn. In short, he study is bogus and is NOT a very well done, very analytical view that separated much of the wheat from the chaff. He obviously was not familiar with the incidents he used in this article.

Somebody asked about more listing. I compiled this in response to folks who think that being unarmed means being defenseless. People actually make this sort of statement on gun forums, people who considered themselves "well prepared" and "head on a swivel" folks, but who are reduced to being defenseless because apparently you can't fight bad guys without guns. It is an attitude issue I was hoping to quell somewhat by pointing out all the times that tackling shooters stopped the shooters, but also noting that it is a very high risk endeavor. It works and it works often, but it also results in some people being wounded or killed directly because they did try to stop the shooter. Timing of such attacks (such as the apparent poor or unavailable timing at Luby's) seems critical to success of such an endeavor.

My lists of incidents do not include the distinction of cops/not cops per se and in fact lists numerous shooters stopped by cops who opted to tackle and not shoot (various reasons, but often because of timing or directions not prudent for shooting such as would have been the case for the Reagan assassination attempt or Oswald's assassination by Jack Ruby).

http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=436861&highlight=tackling

Davi Barker's article also failed to list one of my favorite mass shootings stopped by a private, unarmed citizen. That was of Sylvia Seegrist at a mall in Pennsylvania. It was Halloween and she walked around shooting people before a John Laufer, not realizing she was using real bullets, grabbed the gun, grabbed her, and held her for security/cops. Fortunately, he grabbed the gun before she pulled the trigger on him because he was clueless, but a hero none-the-less.
http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=436861&highlight=tackling
 
It is a certainty that intervening unarmed makes such actions much more hazardous and any study of mass shooting can be done many ways whether this one was done well or better than others? I guess I haven't seen any to compare it with. There is still ample proof that an armed individual can usually make a big difference.
The point I guess is to be armed and then to be ready to act quickly and wisely. The thought of going at it unarmed alone against an armed man is not a pleasant thought at all.
 
Just out of curiosity, how do you know it is going to be a "mass shooting" if a civilian stops it after only 2.3 people are shot? How do we know that the intended targets were not just the shooters girlfriend and the guy she has been having an affair with and maybe some bystander who got winged?

Just wondering.
 
Comparing apples and oranges.

How many mass shootings occured where the police were present in the room/building? What was the fatality count?

It should not be suprising the the number was higher when police were involved. The bad guy had longer to act before being confronted.

I carry concealed off-duty to protect myself and my family. I don't carry off-duty to protect others.
 
Owen, when it comes to 'averages' and statistics i become curious also. who gathered the info? from what and how many sources? filtered how? and the results can be whatever you want them to be.

but the power of large numbers is that trends will emerge.
how we interpret the trending info is again, open to lots of interpretation and than, debate
 
It should not be suprising the the number was higher when police were involved. The bad guy had longer to act before being confronted.

Which makes the case for civilian concealed carry.

I carry concealed off-duty to protect myself and my family. I don't carry off-duty to protect others.

Soooo, if your family was safe, even if you had a clear shot, you'd duck out the side door while a killer mows down the unarmed crowd?

Interesting.
 
Alaskaman,I carry concealed off-duty to protect myself and my family. I don't carry off-duty to protect others. QUOTE

that is not the mindset of police i knew growing up.
to serve and protect. and as they are never totally off duty when it comes to observing felonys, have policies changed or you speak only for yourself?
 
The point is that an armed response by someone who is there is more effective than waiting for the police. Kind of like that cliche, when seconds count the police are only minutes away.
Nobody is bashing cops IMO just saying that their effectiveness is more of a deterrent when they are present and that they have a limited effect when they are not, people have to wait for 911, dispatch, administrative permission. From what I am told many agencies now allow immediate action on active shooter incidents but prior to Columbine they were more about securing the perimeter and waiting for more backup.
That is not a comforting thought for those inside.
 
It should not be suprising the the number was higher when police were involved. The bad guy had longer to act before being confronted.
That's not really apples to oranges, that's actually the entire point.
 
Just out of curiosity, how do you know it is going to be a "mass shooting" if a civilian stops it after only 2.3 people are shot? How do we know that the intended targets were not just the shooters girlfriend and the guy she has been having an affair with and maybe some bystander who got winged?

Just wondering.

You are asking a very good question, but based on some confused insight. You can have mass shootings without mass murders. The study spoke only of deaths during mass shootings, not of numbers of people shot. So you can have an average of 2.3 people killed in a mass shooting.

You can have an average of 2.3 people shot, but then you have to look at the information to see if it was going to be a mass shooting or not. There are lots of incidents I listed that never were going to be mass shootings. Barker lists Peter Odighizuwa's shooting but doesn't tell you it was over when he was stopped. His rampage was done as far as anyone knows. At the point he was stopped, he was just a murderer running from the scene. His wasn't a mass shooting or a mass murder, which if going by tradition definitions usually involve 5 or more (killed for murders or just shot for mass shootings).

Barker further confuses the issue by noting in the title that it is an analysis of rampage shooting, which can be different than mass shooting depending on whose classification you use.

Comparing apples and oranges.
Yes and no, but either way, doing it poorly. His comparison does bias the results and in that regard, you are right. However, he is doing it from the perspective of the private folks being in the kill zone. In that result, his insight has merit and does for the reasons you claim. The cops can't protect you if they aren't there and may not when they arrive.

It would be good to see the comparison between shootings when cops are and are not present. That would be insightful.
 
Last edited:
He listed 16 killed by Whitman after being shot by police. He failed to note responded citizens shooting at Whitman or the fact that one of the people shooting Whitman as part of the responding entry team was not police.

And if those two citizens were armed?
 
There are so many ways one can manipulate the criteria that I doubt a concise study has or will ever be done but his premise is sound unless you can show that police are more effective in stopping mass/rampage shootings.
Are there studys that counter his claim?
 
The title is misleading. Calling citizens "more effective" is also inaccurate.

You need a couple other categories to make this "study" complete. Like,

1. The average number of persons killed at a mass shooting who were stopped by a LEO who was present when the shooting started.

2. The average number of persons killed at a mass shooting who were stopped by unarmed citizens.

My point is this is just a case of presenting statistics that are biased and therefore meaningless.

Don't get the wrong impression. I'm for arming anyone who wants to be armed, except criminals, as long as it doesn't become a government "benefit".
 
The title is misleading. Calling citizens "more effective" is also inaccurate.
When citizens stop shooters, less people die. I don't see how that doesn't make them more effective.

The average number of persons killed at a mass shooting who were stopped by a LEO who was present when the shooting started
Arizona Giffords shooting, lots of police present, shooter still stopped by citizens. Albeit unarmed, but they still stopped him even with a large police presence.

My point is this is just a case of presenting statistics that are biased and therefore meaningless.
While this isn't a completely inclusive study, it shows a pattern that makes sense, and shows that civilians aren't helpless in these situations. He cites cases, and his explanation of which ones he omitted in order to keep the numbers from being skewed seems to show that he isn't adding bias to the calculations. I certainly don't believe it's "meaningless".




I think the real point behind this, as X-Rap said, is the truth behind the old cliché, "when seconds count, police are only minutes away." That's not bashing police. They can't be everywhere at once, and you can't expect him to be. It's a statement that individuals need to be prepared to defend themselves, and these numbers show that they can do so.
 
Last edited:
When citizens stop shooters, less people die. I don't see how that doesn't make them more effective.

Well, well all the citizens fail to stop the shooter, more people die. Following your logic, that makes them less effective. Failing to include the failures has apparently introduced a bias so strongly that you have failed to consider the failures. That is what the bias is supposed to do. As a result, you are being taken-in, duped by data that are not what they are claimed to be.

Arizona Giffords shooting, lots of police present, shooter still stopped by citizens. Albeit unarmed, but they still stopped him even with a large police presence.

Okay, I see you are in the same boat as Barker. You are not familiar with the data. There were NO police at the Giffords shooting.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110112-congressional-security-tucson-shooting

That there were no police present has prompted a lot of lawmakers to look into making such events be required to have police for security.

Also, there were no police present for four minutes after the first 911 call. http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/02/02/20110202gabrielle-giffords-rescurers-timeline.html

While this isn't a completely inclusive study, it shows a pattern that makes sense, and shows that civilians aren't helpless in these situations. He cites cases, and his explanation of which ones he omitted in order to keep the numbers from being skewed seems to show that he isn't adding bias to the calculations. I certainly don't believe it's "meaningless".

The study isn't meaningless because it isn't completely inclusive. There are all sorts of valid sample studies. This study is meaningless, is garbage, because Barker screwed up so badly by not actually understanding what he was talking about and not knowing the data.
 
This study is meaningless, is garbage, because Barker screwed up so badly by not actually understanding what he was talking about and not knowing the data.
Well, if you truly believe that the data isn't correct, and the conclusion isn't correct (or at the bare minimum, logical), fine. I disagree.

If someone starts shooting around you, grab your socks and call the cops. Good luck.
 
So I am still waiting to see a study showing the opposite is true.
The truth is any compilation of data can be contorted and shot full of holes.
 
Two were off duty cops, both of whom retrieved guns from their vehicles, one grabbing a ballistic vest as well. The other was private and others pursued Odighizuwa.

But at the time of the shooting, they were private citizens defending their classmates, and not off duty cops responding to a call. I do agree it makes logical sense - the citizen is there, the cop will take an average of 6.5 minutes to get there. I don't know about you, but I can go through a lot of rounds even from a revolver in 6.5 minutes.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top