Real World Handgun Load Efficacy Data?

Okay.

I use to have the book (all three of them) and my recollection is ...
Higher velocity 9mm loads like +P Golden Saber or Federal 115 +P+ performed well - similar loads are available today - 124 HST+P and 127 Ranger T +P+
40 S&W loads like the 180 Hydra-Shok and some of the lighter weight HP performed well, similar to the 180 HST or 165 Ranger.
45 acp loads like the 185 +P and the 230 Hydra-Shok performed well, a similar bullet would be the 230 HST.
10mm lightweight bullets like the 150 CorBon and 175 Silvertip performed well.
All of the better performing bullets had incapacitation averages of 5-8 seconds, is that a fair generalization?

The poor performers were 380, 38 special, FMJ in 9mm/40/45 as a generalization these had averages exceeding 10 seconds. Correct?

To your first question: I believe that in general HSTs are an improvement over previous designs, though more so in heavy for caliber loads. The 2001 data did not include HSTs because they didn't exist yet, so my speculation there is based on gel testing comparisons and nothing more. Though not just expansion diameters, but also penetration depths or rather how quickly the bullet came to a halt. That is a long way of saying energy transfer. The 2001 book actually makes note of how the major manufacturers made changes to projectiles which actually reduced penetration depth, by increasing expansion, to far nearer the FBI's minimum of 12". I think you can see that in the Vista LE gelatin test data, when comparing some of those heavy for caliber loads to older projectile designs.

Now the .45ACP data was interesting and differed somewhat from much of the other cartridge data sets which I will explain in a moment. 9mm, .40S&W, and .357 Magnum all have the same trend in the charts. Light fast bullets and +P/+P+ loads dominant the top of the charts. Slow heavy bullets and standard pressures are towards the bottom. Though there are a few exceptions to this, particularly one 180gr .40S&W load. .38Spl also has this trend though to a lesser degree, with +P/+P+ loads at the top. Knowing what we know about .38Spl vs .357mag, we would expect this.

But .38Spl and .45acp show no real correlation in bullet weight. Unlike the other cartridges, where fast and light is at the top, these two see an even spread. It seems more about bullet design than weight. Perhaps because they are lower pressure and lower velocity loads to begin with. Maybe for some other reason.

10mm and .357SIG have limited data sets, with relative small sample sizes, though the smallest is 10 instances. And yes, fast and light is at the top and slow and heavy at the bottom. So a correlation here too.

As to your second questions: If it is based on the Strasburg Goat test, I cannot recall those numbers, but what you describe sounds correct to my memory. As for the 2001 M&S data, there were no times included with the data. But yes, FMJ was pretty bad in most cases, though into the 70% range with some cartridges. And generally the smaller diameter and lower pressure loads did not fair well. The 2001 book has an entire chapter on non-expanding projectiles and energy transfer via gelatin blocks and chronograph readings on either side of the blocks. Pretty interesting stuff. Particularly because the energy transfer percentage with increasingly powerful loads was not linear. But was still certainly measurable.

It's a very interesting book. Even without the OSS data, as there are many chapters that don't even mention it.
 
Unless you—or someone else here—can provide factual refutation (by similarly credentialed folks in the discipline) of the cited articles and their methodology, I'll take the articles' documented examination and findings of the M&S ''study'' over an anonymous and completely unsubstantiated ''I doubt it'' every day of the week.

As for the motive that drove the critical articles, I suspect that it was an honest desire to bring to light the numerous insufficiencies of the M&S ''study'' that might otherwise mislead those looking for a valid study.

For the record, the type of conduct that the analyses of the M&S ''study'' exposes strikes me more as one of gross incompetence rather than a desire to intentionally mislead although that might later have been the case.

Other than that, the topic has been settled (that M&S blew it) since there has never been a refutation of the cited works (above) critical of the M&S ''study'' in the 23+ years since they were published.
Sanow was caught publishing outright lies about shooting incidents. See - https://web.archive.org/web/20130330151130/http://www.firearmstactical.com/pdf/sanow.pdf
 
Last edited:
Do you also have a link to the original article?
Sanow's original article was published in slightly different versions in Handguns magazine, Law and Order magazine, and a gun manufacturer (SIG?) magazine 30 years ago. I may or may not have a copy of the Law and Order article in a box out in the storage shed somewhere.

IWBA also published an alert about Sanow's article. The IWBA alert reported about a Sergeant from Louisiana State Police that contacted all the agencies for which Sanow reported shootings and published his findings in SWAT magazine.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 481
Clearly, you didn't bother reading the articles. They are clear and well-composed in their examination of the statistical and methodological deficiencies that plague the M&S ''study''.
Another opinion sans evidence (as seen in the three articles that were cited) is a waste of time because it does not refute the cited IWBA articles and the statistical analyses within.
Opinions, like feelings, do not refute facts.
No, I didn't bother to read it. I really don't care enough one way or another, I was just messing with you. I do however think that you are jumping to conclusions, just because there are a couple of questionable items, the whole entire report should not be discounted IMO.
 
The Men Who Stare At Goats, BPW, Energy Transfer ...

It's been more than 30 years since the mythical goat-roping alleged to have occurred in Strasburg France entered the ranks of urban legend for the gun community.

All of the improvements and changes to handgun ammunition over the last 3-plus decades has brought us back around to 9mm once again being a dominant choice as a service caliber, with .40 S&W and .45ACP relegated to 2nd and 3rd place. Yes, improvements in bullet construction and design have helped bring the 9mm JHP back around ... but so has training/qualifying concerns for a new generation of folks having to be trained, as well as the costs of weapon maintenance/service and budget concerns when it comes to maintaining an ammunition inventory.

The private gun owner market is fickle, with .380's being the hot sellers for a while ... then 10mm ... then diminutive single stack 9's ... then diminutive double stack 9's ... then hot .32's in revolvers ... and 1911's, whether in God's Caliber (.45ACP) or 9mm ... ad nauseam.:neener:

Handgun efficacy data. How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? Pick a desired perspective and you can be patient and find enough examples to support it ... or disprove it.

There's always the potential for encountering both conscious and unconscious bias when it comes to how to consider defensive/duty ammunition 'performance'. Situational context can either help clarify things, or muddle things. Pick your desired outcome.

The perfect One Size Fits All caliber (or weapon, or brand of ammunition, etc) is a Will-'o-the-wisp.

Even back in '89 the FBI's firearms unit acknowledged that trying to get a practical idea of how duty ammunition performed required the consideration of both carefully conducted scientific testing and carefully considering the results of its use in actual 'street' shooting incidents. In other words, the Lab and the Street were both necessary to try and achieve a working understanding how to select duty ammunition for their needs. (They never claimed to have the definitive answer for how other LE agencies must select ammunition for their needs.)

Admittedly, the "How does such & such agency do it?" can be a strong influence when the 18,000+ LE agencies in the nation look at many issues, including the selection of duty weapons and ammunition. Then, there's always the way private gun owners like to follow LE practices and trends. The little agencies don't have the money, or the staffing and time, to engage in the extensive testing and OIS monitoring of the big agencies. Not everyone always agrees, either. That's kind of a given in both human affairs and government entities.

If you don't like one particular study, just look for another that better aligns with your desire. It'll be along shortly, or be resurrected from a few decades ago, dusted off and be shiny again. :)

Don't expect the federal (civilian and military) agencies to throw open their files and hold forth on decades of shooting investigations. Ditto the state, county or municipal agencies. Anecdotal info may be exchanged among agencies (meaning among firearms training units and instructors, when someone begins considering a change of duty weapons and/or ammunition), but it's more of a back channel thing. BTDT. Sometimes that's enough, though, especially when factored in with easily available ammunition lab testing, and considering how changes may affect (or drive) budgetary and hands-on training needs.

When it comes right down to it ... it's just handgun. ;)
 
No, I didn't bother to read it. I really don't care enough one way or another, I was just messing with you. I do however think that you are jumping to conclusions, just because there are a couple of questionable items, the whole entire report should not be discounted IMO.

No worries. There's no need for you to agree with me.

My acceptance of MacPherson's, van Maanen's, and Fackler's analyses and conclusions is based upon more than a ''couple of questionable items''. I won't waste your time explaining why, but there are myriad (not a couple of) issues with the M&S 'study'; none of them bode well for M&S.

I don't mind anyone ''messing around with me'' since my skin is thicker than most, but the preponderance of the evidence indicates that—JohnKSa said—''I do think it's accurate to call Fackler and MacPherson's articles hit pieces and I don't think they were entirely fair in how they handled the situation. But that doesn't mean their criticisms were inaccurate. I would say they were overly harsh in their presentation, but it's clear that they got it right. People who believe M&S data is valid either don't know it's been debunked, don't understand statistics, or just want to believe in it strongly enough that they don't care about hard evidence that contradicts it.''—the M&S 'study' is invalid.

Were the three cited critical reviews 'snotty' or 'mean-spirited'? Sure, a bit; there was some ''pepper on the balls thrown'', but that does not mean that the criticisms were inaccurate or out of place.

The M&S 'study' simply failed critical review and examination (which has remained unrebutted for well over two decades); that is all there is to it. Some folks don't like direct facts like these, but my offering of them is not meant to hurt or insult anyone. If feelings have been hurt as result of my directness, I apologize as that was not my intent. Facts are the only thing that matter.
 
Last edited:
Do you think its possible Sanow was publishing the data given to him? Maybe he was fed false information?

Even if Sanow was fed false information, the duty to verify information falls upon him. Ultimately, the product (the M&S 'study') is his. Both he and Marshall are responsible for their work and checking/double-checking their sources' validity. I know that sounds cruel and unyielding, but statistical research and DOE is like that: You follow the established methodology, or you end up with garbage.
 
More on Sanow - "Ed Sanow and Guns & Ammo Insist upon Intentionally Misrepresenting Facts of Dayton, Ohio Police Shootout" See - https://web.archive.org/web/20130328181113/http://www.firearmstactical.com/briefs12.htm

Do you mean this:

Ed Sanow and Guns & Ammo Insist upon Intentionally Misrepresenting Facts of Dayton, Ohio Police Shootout

In Tactical Briefs #8 we reported the efforts of Dayton, Ohio police detective Mark Lukas to correct misinformation presented by gun writer Ed Sanow in an article published in Handguns magazine. Officer Lukas contacted Handguns editor Jan Libourel by telephone and also submitted a letter to the editor, which was subsequently published in Handguns.

Officer Lukas, a member of his agency's firearms training unit, disputed the accuracy of facts reported by Sanow about a fatal shootout involving officers of his department.

Despite the efforts of officer Lukas to set the record straight, Guns & Ammo has recently reprinted Sanow's article in its special edition magazine Firearms for Law Enforcement.

On page 47 of the article "Latest Loads for the .40 S&W," Sanow has re-written his description of the Dayton police shootout. However he insists upon spinning the same untruths: "A high profile Dayton Police shootout involving this Medium Velocity 165-grain JHP raised expansion and cycle reliability questions that were answered by the switch to higher-velocity ammo."

According to officer Lukas (who is also a member of the IWBA), the detectives who investigated the shooting believe one of the bullets that hit the suspect, which did not expand, first passed through the driver's side door of the truck he was attempting to escape in before it hit him. FBI ammunition tests have shown that most bullets do not expand, regardless of velocity, whenever sheetmetal is encountered. Officer Lukas and his fellow detectives feel this is the most likely scenario, and that it reasonably explains why this particular bullet did not expand.

Also, the cycle reliability problem alleged by Sanow never happened, according to officer Lukas.

In the Firearms for Law Enforcement article, Sanow also claims: "Other agencies using the Medium Velocity loads complain of a lack of expansion, and poor cycle reliability from short barreled handguns or when fired fired by small statured officers." Since Sanow chose not to name the departments involved, we're left to wonder if this claim is more fraud and deceit.

So again, we do not know what exactly Sanow wrote. Nor do we know what the differences were between what he wrote and what actually happened.

What it seems like to me is two cases of "He said, She said." Except it's more like "He may have said. And they didn't really say much of anything."

I'm not sure if that passed for evidence or dare I say proof in the 1990's, but it sure as heck wouldn't today.
 
Also worthy of note is a question I like to ask about any conspiracy theory. Why?

Why would Marshall or Sanow intentionally lie, make up manipulate statistics, and intentionally misrepresent real world shootings? What was the benefit?

Why would ranking LEOs contact the IWBA or other publications regarding the publicizing of shootings at their departments, claiming the published accountings of those instances were false? What would be the benefit?

Why would IWBA members writing pieces for the WBR publication feel the need to lie about studies, testing and real world instances, that seem to indicate some of their own assertions about handgun load efficacy were potential flawed? What would be the benefit?

What's the best reason and the worst reason in each case. Those are something to think on.
 
So again, we do not know what exactly Sanow wrote. Nor do we know what the differences were between what he wrote and what actually happened.

What it seems like to me is two cases of "He said, She said." Except it's more like "He may have said. And they didn't really say much of anything."

I'm not sure if that passed for evidence or dare I say proof in the 1990's, but it sure as heck wouldn't today.
The original sources of Sanow's articles are cited in the criticisms and an interested person will invest the time and effort to track them down to see for themselves exactly what the truth is.

Of note, there's first person testimony from two police officers (Porter and Lukas), in the articles I posted links to, in which Sanow was informed of the truth yet he chose to publish lies afterwards.
 
No, I didn't bother to read it. I really don't care enough one way or another, I was just messing with you. I do however think that you are jumping to conclusions, just because there are a couple of questionable items, the whole entire report should not be discounted IMO.

Well, it is worth reading. Simply to understand the scope of the issue and the limits of the evidence presented, along with what critical information is conspicuously absent.
 
Why would Marshall or Sanow intentionally lie, make up manipulate statistics, and intentionally misrepresent real world shootings? What was the benefit?
Sanow had a personal agenda to discredit 9mm 147gr and the FBI's .40 S&W reduced velocity 165gr load. His mistake? He identified the agencies involved in the shootings, which allowed independent investigators to contact the agencies to verify and validate Sanow's claims.

As for Marshall, I have reason to believe he was just incompetent. His heart was in the right place but he was outside his lane.
 
The original sources of Sanow's articles are cited in the criticisms and an interested person will invest the time and effort to track them down to see for themselves exactly what the truth is.

Of note, there's first person testimony from two police officers (Porter and Lukas), in the articles I posted links to, in which Sanow was informed of the truth yet he chose to publish lies afterwards.

Ah, I'll just head to the local library and sift through the microfiche then. o_O

What you've presented is statements saying "What Sanow said was wrong", but not explaining anything more. That's not evidence. It's conjecture. And I simply have no interest in applying a significant amount of time investigating what Sanow actually wrote, and then comparing it to the official police reports of the (so far) nameless instances. Reports I would presumably have to track down myself via the freedom of information act and a whole bunch of jumping through loopholes, armed with very little initial information.

And without the actual truth of what really happened (which I challenge you now to provide in detail), how can anyone prove that whatever Sanow may have claimed in those articles was indeed wrong, nevermind intentionally so?
 
Why would ranking LEOs contact the IWBA or other publications regarding the publicizing of shootings at their departments, claiming the published accountings of those instances were false? What would be the benefit?
To prevent other officers/agencies from falling victim to Sanow's lies and choosing inadequate ammunition that could cost officer lives.

Why would IWBA members writing pieces for the WBR publication feel the need to lie about studies, testing and real world instances, that seem to indicate some of their own assertions about handgun load efficacy were potential flawed? What would be the benefit?
What did IWBA lie about? Show us your evidence of how MacPherson lied in his statistical analysis. Show us your evidence of how Van Maanen lied in his simple analysis of Marshall's data?

Finally, what is the plus or minus percentage in margin of error in Marshall's findings, i.e., how accurate are his findings based on his methodology?
 
  • Like
Reactions: 481
Sanow had a personal agenda to discredit 9mm 147gr and the FBI's .40 S&W reduced velocity 165gr load. His mistake? He identified the agencies involved in the shootings, which allowed independent investigators to contact the agencies to verify and validate Sanow's claims.

Evidence please.
 
What did IWBA lie about? Show us your evidence of how MacPherson lied in his statistical analysis. Show us your evidence of how Van Maanen lied in his simple analysis of Marshall's data?

I never said they did. I asked why they would. I can think of a very powerful motive.
 
What you've presented is statements saying "What Sanow said was wrong", but not explaining anything more. That's not evidence. It's conjecture.
Track down Sanow's articles and verify and validate the criticism I've presented for yourself.

If you choose not to do so, then that's your prerogative. The Marshall-Sanow ship sailed 30 years ago. Sorry you missed it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 481
Finally, what is the plus or minus percentage in margin of error in Marshall's findings, i.e., how accurate are his findings based on his methodology?

Oh who knows. But that doesn't matter much to me, because I'm not selecting a load of 92% efficacy over a load of 89% efficacy because of 3 percentage points. I'm taking the 10,000 foot view, where the margin of error is far less significant. And the chances of it causing the kind of correlations seen in the 2001 data sets, tiny.
 
Track down Sanow's articles and verify and validate the criticism I've presented for yourself.

If you choose not to do so, then that's your prerogative. The Marshall-Sanow ship sailed 30 years ago. Sorry you missed it.

Are you purposely ignoring what I said: There's no point me tracking down Sanow's articles without also tracking down the police reports for those specific shootings. Otherwise I have nothing of any value to compare Sanow's articles with.
 
Oh who knows. But that doesn't matter much to me, because I'm not selecting a load of 92% efficacy over a load of 89% efficacy because of 3 percentage points. I'm taking the 10,000 foot view, where the margin of error is far less significant. And the chances of it causing the kind of correlations seen in the 2001 data sets, tiny.
A margin of error as low as 10 percent plus or minus, which is extremely generous given Marshall's "catch-as-catch-can" methodology, invalidates the usefulness of his alleged "findings".
 
Just because we've reached this point of discussing the M&S data, here are two cartridge data sets from 2001 for everyone to look at. 9mm and .40S&W, which is where the big debate was through at least the later 90's.
IMG_20230525_182846352.jpg

IMG_20230525_182823349.jpg

It certainly changed my preconceptions about the potential of the 9x19mm cartridge.
 
Back
Top