Russian ammo ban: what percent of USA ammo is imported?

[twofewscrews]

So as the title stated what percent of USA ammo is imported? From where? What about Russian ammo? Can Russia really account for 30-40% of the American ammo supply?

I keep hearing about people panicking about the Russian ammo ban. I've seen people claiming that anywhere between 30-40% of the American ammunition supply is from Russia but I can't find any hard numbers on it. To me any foreign country importing more then 15% of the total American ammo supply sounds dubious considering that Turkey, France, Germany, Italy, England, Hungary, Brazil, etc. all produce and import ammo here. If those seven countries were each responsible for 4% of the American ammo supply, and Russia was responsible for 30-40%, that would mean America only produces 32% of its own ammo supply. That and it would mean upwards of 66% or 2 out of 3 rounds in America are produced elsewhere. That sounds crazy.

If Russia is responsible for 30-40% of the American ammo supply 1 in 3 bullets in America are made in Russia. That sounds crazy. Perhaps they mean Russia is responsible for 30-40% of the ammo imported to America in a given year and not 30-40% of the American ammo supply total.

Does what I'm saying make sense? It seems absurd to me that Russia or any country could be responsible for importing so much ammunition here.

 

[TEKoken813]

That is a crazy number but there are a lot of 7.62x39 chambered weapons in this country. I very rarely see that caliber from American manufacturers.

 

[Slamfire]

I don't know. I don't have a list of commercial ammunition plants, so I don't even know if steel case ammunition is made in the US. Only found about the Remington Lonoke, Arkansas plant after the bankruptcy, and that will soon be forgotten.

I saw Hornady sold steel case, but I don't know where they sourced the cases, could have been Russian.

The US firearms industry is very consolidated in the US. ATK ran Lake City,, owns Speer, Federal, Allitant, CCI and then was bought out by Grumman. I have no idea what Grumman owns, these Corporations are unimaginably large. It was interesting to read in the Lake City/Grumman article how ATK had been squeezing worker salaries. ATK was also squeezing us too. In my opinion, there is no real competition in the ammunition industry, they are not adding capacity, and I do not believe it is a coincidence that our Government blocked the import of foreign ammunition. By doing so, the Government boosts the profits of the industry at the expense of shooters. And it is a game of whack a mole. If a new supplier is found, in a non banned country, you don't know what pressures your Government is applying to that country, to prevent importation of that ammunition, to protect the profits of the US ammunition industry.

 

[The Last Outlaw]

This might help you a bit, I've been wondering the same thing, found this

http://smallarmsanalytics.com/v1/pr/2021-03-15.pdf

Part of the text-

"Relatedly, imports of munitions in 2020 amounted to nearly 3.5 billion units (defined as cartridges, shells, with or without projectile, and their parts). The top-10 countries of origin were Russia, Mexico, Italy, the Czech Republic, Brazil, Serbia, South Korea, Hungary, Israel, and the Philippines."

Looks like Russia is the number one exporter of ammo to us, but the 40% number floating around is bogus.

 

[Johnm1]

http://smallarmsanalytics.com/v1/pr/2021-03-15.pdf

Part of the text-

"Relatedly, imports of munitions in 2020 amounted to nearly 3.5 billion units (defined as cartridges, shells, with or without projectile, and their parts). The top-10 countries of origin were Russia, Mexico, Italy, the Czech Republic, Brazil, Serbia, South Korea, Hungary, Israel, and the Philippines."

From the above Russia has about 22% of the import market. But from this article from a couple of years ago

3,455,273,110 total imported
765,487,845 imported from Russia or 22% of the imported market. Not an insignificant amount of the import market.

How Much Ammunition is Produced for the United States Market? (ammoland.com)

The US produces around 9 billion rounds a year and I believe that to be non military ammunition but can't for sure qualify that. So that math goes as follows:


Add to the total 3.4 billion rounds imported to the 9 billion rounds made in the US

3,455,273,110
÷9,000,000,000
_____________
12,455,273,110 total ammunition in the US both domestically produced and imported

So the Russian percentage of the total ammunition market here in the US is

765,487,845
÷12,455,273,110
_______________
0.0614 x 100 = 6.14% of the total market

Enough to cause us issues. You bet. In retail they use the same marketing ploy as politicians. Never let a good crisis go to waste. Well, we don't help ourselves on that front either by increasing the demand.

 

[illinoisburt]

There are hard numbers available for imported items, though you cannot discern precisely what those items may be (ie completed ammunition vs primers/components, cartridge or caliber). You can probably safely assume the majority is finished ammo though rimfire and shotshells are going to be at least a substantial percentage. Checking the March report gives total 2020 numbers of about 750 million rounds of ammo from Russia. There's a bunch from other countries as well (total about 3.5 billion).

https://smallarmsanalytics.com/saaf-press-releases/

Edit: looks like a minute earlier answered already. Anyway here's an image of the report so you dont need to download the pdf file.

 

[CapnMac]

I'll wager the 40% number is in strictly steel-case ammo, as a number of non-russian sources use steel for components. The actual amounts of ammo out there are staggering. As are the production numbers.

Which is part of why most of the manufacturers were (and remain) happy to use a JIT (Just in Time) production model to make product.

Consider what it takes to increase ammo production in a factory.
First there's the "what" to produce: Which caliber, which projectile, FMJ, HP, etc.
Then, there's the "how many" to produce--as there are manufacturing efficiencies to consider.
Also, there's the "costs" of production: You need rounds, cases, propellant, you need the cardboard for the boxes, for the cases, the wood and metal banding for pallets--these are non-trivial costs when considering a 10 million round run of production.
Note all that is just the boardroom brain work, too.

Say, the go-ahead decision is made. Is that an extra shift? Ok, how many new employees is that. How many are available. How much training will they need to get up to speed. How many of the existing work force will balk at being moved to a different shift to be the knowledge base for "the new guys." Then, there is the very real issue of how additional shifts tend to be less-good the later into the day they get. QC rejects expand dramatically on 2nd Shift, and even more so on Graveyard. And, since the QC is as affected as anything else, the "missed" QC increases too. And, this is presuming that the new shifts are just continuing the work Day shift did.

Just adding more machines is almost as big a roadblock. You need space for the machines. You tend to need a "complete" line as well--which includes things like packaging, raw materials, and the like. And the warehousing space to collect up the work until there are truckloads available. And, adding machines typically means increasing the labor base, too. Brand new, ground-up, factory building needs a year to stand up, and that's not including the installation of the tools & machines and the like.

 

[crestoncowboy]

I shoot a lot of 5.45 and I'd certainly believe they import 40 percent of that.

I've shot tens of thousands of rounds of 5.45. Never seen a brass cased or American made round. Ive seen a few in 7.62 but not many.

Other than 7.62, 5.45, and perhaps 9mm (tula and wolf mostly) I don't believe they make up a significant portion at all.

 

[Johnm1]

I shoot a lot of 5.45 and I'd certainly believe they import 40 percent of that.

I'm sure they produce/import a lot of the 'cheap' stuff and I'm sure it will have an impact on us all. We can't really tell from the data we have available to use. But in the big picture of the availability of ammunition overall, they are a 6% supplier and it isn't like we are losing 40% of the overall ammunition supply. The cheap stuff just got a lot more expensive for sure.

 

[wiscoaster]

The ban is on "new" permit applications. I think relevant questions are: 1) how long does an existing permit last and 2) how much does an existing permit cover? Wolf, Tula, Barnaul, Silver Bear, etc and et al may be entirely unaffected by this new ban. I suspect the ban is more for political show and posturing than anything that actually has an effect either on the Russians or on us. Therefore the percent of total supply isn't worrisome, at least not to me. They're going to continue selling us as much as we allow them to sell us and as much as we care to buy.

 

[Slamfire]

The ban is on "new" permit applications. I think relevant questions are: 1) how long does an existing permit last and 2) how much does an existing permit cover? Wolf, Tula, Barnaul, Silver Bear, etc and et al may be entirely unaffected by this new ban. I suspect the ban is more for political show and posturing than anything that actually has an effect either on the Russians or on us.

I don't know, but these sort of things have time limits, because the agency wants paying customers in the future. Just look at a passport. Have to renew, and if you let it lapse, the State Department has created new, and more expensive hoops to jump.

 

[gobsauce]

I've said this before, and imma say it again. I miss 2019.

 

[illinoisburt]

I've shot tens of thousands of rounds of 5.45. Never seen a brass cased or American made round. Ive seen a few in 7.62 but not many

I have a feeling 7.62x39 will get plenty of other sources to fill any void due the popularity of the round here. As for 5.45x39, it's truly a niche cartridge in the US. Outside the Ak74 derivatives and some oddball ARs there aren't many guns chambered in it floating around. Someone will likely make it, but nothing like to old mag dump days of 7n6.

 

[CoalCrackerAl]

Im about to step into the world of 7.62x39. I only have 30 brass casings so far. I have them loaded. Sure hope i come across more. Either range finds or factory ammo later. I had some brass awhile ago. Sent them off as a P.I.F.

 

[AJC1]

Just in time manufacturing for companies with a 2 year backlog is just stupid. Why risk profit if your that far behind. Toyota has evolved this plan to be far more effective and others need to evolve as nessary.

 

[Mars5l]

Im about to step into the world of 7.62x39. I only have 30 brass casings so far. I have them loaded. Sure hope i come across more. Either range finds or factory ammo later. I had some brass awhile ago. Sent them off as a P.I.F.

In my area it seems it doesn't cost much more now to get brass 7.62x39 vs steel. In fact my local range had a bogo deal on Belom brass, could have gotten a 400ish round case for $140 a month ago, I regret it now.

But on the original topic everyone looks at me funny for spending more at times for brass 7.62 for my SKS. Most of the 7.62 Russian ammo ive seen sold and used is steel, thats 7.62x39 and 7.62x54r. All my local stores have already increased their prices on Tula by a few dollars and their suppliers saying it will get higher on what else is arriving

 

[CoalCrackerAl]

I haven't been ammo shopping besides picking up what Walmart has on the shelf. When it gets close to getting my rifle i'll order brass from star-line or Winchester or someone who makes it.

 

[SquidBubble]

I think this is going to have a ripple effect on prices of almost everything else that was just starting to come down. At least we can still buy ammo and guns from other combloc countries (for now).

 

[Reloadron]

Im about to step into the world of 7.62x39. I only have 30 brass casings so far. I have them loaded. Sure hope i come across more. Either range finds or factory ammo later. I had some brass awhile ago. Sent them off as a P.I.F.

Not exactly the best time to get into 7.62 x 39 especially getting brass case stuff. I have several old boxes (20 round count) from the early / mid 90s we were selling for $5.50 a box. Problem is both the Remington UMC and Winchester white box brass cased boxer primed stuff is all limited production and when it is available Remington UMC is about $20 a box (a buck a round) and the Winchester White Box is about $26 a box. My guess is limited production because of the influx of the cheaper Russian ammunition. When we were selling the Rem and Win stuff for $5.50 the Chinese stuff was pouring in at about .08 cents a round. Anyway finding brass cased boxer primed 7.62 x 39 will likely be a chore about now. Best of luck on that endeavor.

Today, I would look to Starline when they have the brass in stock.

Ron

 

[Phydeaux642]

I passed on a case of Tula today for more than $450. I'll probably regret that at some point.
I'm almost to the point that I'm giving up on centerfire everything and just shoot .22lr. I have lots of that stashed.

 

[wiscoaster]

I don't know, but these sort of things have time limits, ....

After posting, I found out the existing permits are good for two years. There are still new permits already applied for that could be approved before the ban takes effect Sept. 7. The ban expires in 12 months. The Democratic legislature in a little longer. I still don't think it's going to be a big problem.

 

[Tom-R2]

I doubt if Russia cares, at least for their .223/5.56 stuff. The Taliban has LOTS of M4s that will use it.

 

[BigAlShooter]

I think the 6% number is probably right. But, I believe a few months back, there were probably some internet sellers that probably did have 40% of their sales to be Tula or some Russian steel ammo. I didn't buy any, but I understand when the cheapest brass 223/556 is $0.60 and Tula is $0.40. I will still pay the $0.60 as I reload the brass.

If I can remember a few years ago, I was turning down $0.20 steel 223 for $0.24 brass ammo.

So, I hope this ban doesn't affect me, but I think it already has, as I have seen another run on ammo and components just in that last few days.

 

[dave951]

I think this is mostly for politicaly kabuke theater. IF and WHEN a real ban on 7.62x39 were ever implemented, there is a huge supply of AKs and other guns that use it so I could see an enterprising US company step into a void and make a ton of money.

 

[reddog81]

I’d guess the 6% might be close. I said it’s probably around 5% in one of the original threads on the subject.

There’s absolutely no way it’s close to 40%. That’d mean it’s larger than Winchester, Remington, Federal, Speer, CCI, Blazer, and Hornady combined.

I’d believe 30% of the import market. That might be reasonable. However there are some big players there also - Magtech, S&B, PPU, IMI, Aquila, and at least a dozen others.