Russian ammo ban: what percent of USA ammo is imported?

[lsudave]

I haven't been to a LGS store in a little while, but I could see the 40% number being sales OR stock in 2020 and 2021.

The Russian steel is "ONLY" 9mm, 223, 7.62x39, 308, 9x18, 45acp, and 5.45, right?
9x19, 223, 7.62x39, 45acp, and 308 are very likely the top 5 centerfire cartridges in terms of bulk sales. Those are your primary pistol cartridges, and your 3 major semiauto removable mag (military-style) cartridges (AR, AK, and MBR).
If you go plinking outside of 22lr, you very likely do so with 1 or more of those. 100 rds of 30-30 can last a long time; 100 rds of 308 with a FAL, G3 style, or M14 (or AR10) could be a range session. Definitely the same with 223 and x39. And again, definitely the case with 9mm or 45.

I have good stock of all of those, but I've watched the market. I did go outside those a couple times; picked up 4 boxes of 30-30 when I saw it at Walmart for $14 or so a box. Picked up some surplus Largo and Tokarev, when those slipped below the price of 9x19.
But my strong preference is going to be the listed calibers. I'm good on 9, haven't bought anything this year. Last purchase was probably a case of Tula for under $160. Wish I'd bought more, now that I'm shooting it (saving the brass). Only brass 9 I've shot is some old Aguila my late cat peed on about a decade ago, found in a closet (it shoots and smells ).
Last year the bulk of my 223 was steel, under $300 a case. I recently bought a case for under $350, thought it was a fair price end of July to top off the supply (it definitely was, in hindsight). Bought some x39 at the same time, for under $270. Both were higher than I wanted, but not so high that I refused it; and I feared another panic with the new covid wave. I'm not buying brass at today's prices, and the steel shoots.

Long story short, people may buy a box or so of other stuff, but they buy these calibers in bulk, and the steel prices were blowing brass away (and were definitely available). 40% of overall sales sounds right, maybe a little low to be honest.

 

[Phaedrus/69]

I do find it interesting and I wish we had solid numbers (that were reliable). I go years without ever buying or shooting anything Russian but I'm not big on steel ammo. Not all Russian stuff is steel but that's the stuff they're known for. Nothing I own is chambered in 7.62x39 nor 5.45, and I swore off Tul and most of the other Russian 9mm simply due to how incredibly filthy it is. I don't mind running steel through a Scorpion or something but it's not worth the extra cleaning for a relatively modest savings. When it comes to 5.56 I'm pretty much brass-only nowadays (not even sure if my only "real" AR will run steel but my PWS and Bren 805 will). I don't shoot a ton of 12ga (at least lately) but all of it is Federal or Brenneke (well, I guess a little bit of legacy Winchester and some Russian DDuplex Steelhead that doesn't really work in most 12ga guns I've tried). And to date I've never even seen .40 S&W from Russian although it might exist.

I wouldn't miss Russian ammo whatsoever save for the extra demand it puts on the other stuff.

 

[lsudave]

I will be curious to see what 7.62x39 evolves into. Lots of AKs and SKS's out there, but it was cheap enough that people started making ARs and bolt actions in that caliber. Ballistics somewhere around 30-30 generally, perfect size for hogs and occasional deer. More umph than 223.
It may not stay king of the fun plinkers, but it's got a lot of potential.

 

[Dale Alan]

I say 6% , based on zero facts...just like all these other numbers .

 

[Rule3]

The previous thread on this got closed.

But from the fact sheet:

New sanctions imposed today under the CBW Act include:

1. Restrictions on the permanent imports of certain Russian firearms. New and pending permit applications for the permanent importation of firearms and ammunition manufactured or located in Russia will be subject to a policy of denial.

https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-un...-russia-for-the-poisoning-of-aleksey-navalny/

 

[vintovka]

The fallout from this can already be seen on net auction sites. Sellers are listing Mosin Nagant rifles as "banned" and some bidders are bidding very high. "Traitor Joe" the gun sellers best friend?

 

[DustyGmt]

I have heard a few people say it's only for future applicants and that the brands that are already coming in will still be allowed, is there any truth to that. Meaning Wolf, RAS, etc will continue to be imported, according to some folks.

 

[wiscoaster]

1. ...New and pending permit applications...

...effective Sept 7.

 

[Mannlicher]

Regardless of how much Russian ammo is imported, just the rumors of a ban are spiking prices. America is awash in a sea of disinformation.

 

[Gun4Fun90]

Yeah like others have mentioned a huge amount of steel cased ammo is Russian made. Even from American brands it is often made by Tula and Wolf in Russia.

Also basically all steel cased 7.62x39 is originally sourced from Russia.

the big difference with this ban is it is anything manufactured in Russia. So even if you are importing from Ukrainian or whatever as long as it is made in Russia is a no go.

 

[Hartkopf]

I have heard a few people say it's only for future applicants and that the brands that are already coming in will still be allowed, is there any truth to that. Meaning Wolf, RAS, etc will continue to be imported, according to some folks.

But all the applications expire regularly. Idk details but supposedly every two years so once one expires, it won't be renewed. (supposedly, I'm estimating/guessing like everybody else.)

Either way it sucks because prices are already inching up on some ammo.

 

[AK Hunter]

I can see 30% to 40% being imported but I doubt if it's all from Russia. There are many other countries that import ammo into our country. Remember just because it's imported doesn't mean it's steel cased ammo. I bet the price of once fired brass goes through the roof in those imported calibers now.

 

[OrangeCat]

The fallout from this can already be seen on net auction sites. Sellers are listing Mosin Nagant rifles as "banned" and some bidders are bidding very high. "Traitor Joe" the gun sellers best friend?

I mean sure if you want to let him steal the credit from unscrupulous sellers, and all the guntubers that can't let a good banic pass them by. But I'm not sure that we should be taking the glory from our comrades in the 2a community to a two bit politician.

 

[CoalTrain49]

Just in time manufacturing for companies with a 2 year backlog is just stupid. Why risk profit if your that far behind. Toyota has evolved this plan to be far more effective and others need to evolve as nessary.

Most Toyotas these days are sold before they're built. I know because I'm waiting on one. That isn't a bad business plan. In the not too distant future, if you want a case of ammo, you'll have to put some money on the table and wait in line a few months until it's produced. That process allows manufactures to know what to build. They can then concentrate their resources on what people actually want to buy.

 

[illinoisburt]

In the not too distant future, if you want a case of ammo, you'll have to put some money on the table and wait in line a few months until it's produced. That process allows manufactures to know what to build. They can then concentrate their resources on what people actually want to buy.

This is already how the manufacturers operate. They have large orders from retail chains and distributors. As those orders are filled the product is pushed farther down the line to smaller retailers and eventually to end users. Prices are fairly fixed at the start of production. It takes a long time for the manufacturer prices to change significantly. Rather it's the distribution centers and other middlemen adjusting prices for ad hoc orders outside their pre-existing long term contracts, and of course the retail sellers who vary drastically with sales or price increases as the market will bear. I can assure you the money paid from month-to-month to the factory is going to be very stable (and it's a lot less than prices in the store).

 

[CoalTrain49]

This is already how the manufacturers operate. They have large orders from retail chains and distributors. As those orders are filled the product is pushed farther down the line to smaller retailers and eventually to end users. Prices are fairly fixed at the start of production. It takes a long time for the manufacturer prices to change significantly. Rather it's the distribution centers and other middlemen adjusting prices for ad hoc orders outside their pre-existing long term contracts, and of course the retail sellers who vary drastically with sales or price increases as the market will bear. I can assure you the money paid from month-to-month to the factory is going to be very stable (and it's a lot less than prices in the store).

I know. LE contracts suggest that ammo prices haven't gone up more than about 15% in the last few years while the general public is being ripped off.

I think we all know who is driving the ammo bus. It isn't the factory. That system of factory-to-distributor-to-dealer is going to hurt the ammo business in the long run. Toyota is factory to dealer. Toyota sets a price (MSRP) so we know about what a reasonable cost should be. Dealer can charge more but at least we know who's getting greedy. During normal production the dealer could go as low as 10% below MSRP and make money but those days are gone. The production numbers just aren't there.

If the ammo manufacturer put an MSRP (15% markup included) on every box of ammo they made, a person could ask who's getting the 50% markup. It would have to be the distributor and/or the dealer.

It doesn't affect me because I figured out a way around the scalper's during the shortages.

 

[AJC1]

Most Toyotas these days are sold before they're built. I know because I'm waiting on one. That isn't a bad business plan. In the not too distant future, if you want a case of ammo, you'll have to put some money on the table and wait in line a few months until it's produced. That process allows manufactures to know what to build. They can then concentrate their resources on what people actually want to buy.

The other aspect is that they have learned that computer chips and the delays associated with them can severely impact production so they hoard large amounts of them to keep steady production.

 

[lionking]

I'm tired of scrambling to chase ammo it is just one crisis after another we just can't get a break , back in January I posted about my worry that they would ban ammo imports like this and some members dismissed it I guess they voted that way and thought this wouldn't happen from their guy and now low and behold.........

What bothers me most about these constant ammo crisis is in the last couple years I have been getting some friends and family into shooting and have been generous with ammo letting them get the like of shooting especially the younger generation of my friends kids because they are the future and it has become where I can't just let them shoot away when the costs are just too high. The good news is they are hooked but practice will be limited for center fire cartridges a while except maybe .22

 

[CoalTrain49]

The other aspect is that they have learned that computer chips and the delays associated with them can severely impact production so they hoard large amounts of them to keep steady production.

Toyota has cut back most production now by about 40%. They can't do just-in-time delivery anymore. According to the ammo manufacturers they never cut production. The demand just overwhelmed the production. Distributors and dealers took advantage of the demand by increasing prices. The manufactures raised their prices marginally only to cover production costs which was about 15%.

This isn't good for the industry as a whole. People who understand the dynamic here won't buy ammo during these shortages. They buy it when it's relatively inexpensive and squirrel it away. Ammo isn't a perishable commodity. I know people who have cases of ammo on hand and aren't buying until prices return to more or less normal and they will over time. When ammo prices return to normal I think a lot of distributors and dealers are going to wonder where their good customers went. If they sell anything it will have to be discounted before it moves. It wouldn't surprise me if 9 x 19 isn't $100/case and selling at or below dealer cost. Who gets jammed up now? It won't be the guy that has 5 cases of the stuff in his garage. I think that just-in-time supply idea is about dead in the ammo industry.

 

[GEM]

A general comment. Folks complain about our manufacturing moving overseas. Cheap labor kills our industries. OMG, I can't get cheap ammo from an overseas dictator!
Wah, wah.

 

[illinoisburt]

According to the ammo manufacturers they never cut production. The demand just overwhelmed the production. Distributors and dealers took advantage of the demand by increasing prices.

Obviously costs fluctuate but I did happen to notice the recent article about military contracts with ATK for about 1.6 billion rounds annually at cost of $131 million. That's making delivery at 12-1/4 cents per round of mixed metallic cartridges including 5.56, 50 bmg, and others. Would hazard a guess they aren't expecting to loose money on the deal, so how much are things being marked up here?

 

[CoalTrain49]

Obviously costs fluctuate but I did happen to notice the recent article about military contracts with ATK for about 1.6 billion rounds annually at cost of $131 million. That's making delivery at 12-1/4 cents per round of mixed metallic cartridges including 5.56, 50 bmg, and others. Would hazard a guess they aren't expecting to loose money on the deal, so how much are things being marked up here?

Looks like about 300%. Now I realize some profit needs to happen but that's a little over the top. During normal times it's probably around 100% divided by the shipper, distributor and dealer.

But like I said, I don't buy manufactured ammo, so it's of no great concern to me. I'm still building all the ammo I want with components I purchased 2 years ago and I can keep that up for at least another year.