Sam Gabbert of SGAmmo on the status of Russian ammo

[lionking]

These trade laws can change quickly. I don’t think we’ve seen the end of Russian ammo imports. It’s a political bargaining chip in an endless poker game.

Wouldn't hold breath, Clinton banned ammo and after three presidents after him two of which were firearms friendly overall it is still in effect while Chinese imports overall increased massively. Currently the top imports from Russia from what I read is gas, oil and iron and have increased since last year, yet the Biden administration didn't go after those instead they used a excuse to punish gun owners

 

[slowr1der]

I haven't read the whole thread, but my opinion on this is that it's a marketing email from Sam. I really like Sam. He's a great guy to talk to. We've dealt with him quite a bit at work.

That said, this is how Sam is. He is always looking for an opportunity, as most salesmen are. He would warn of a panic years before there were any signs of a panic, trying to create one to increase his sales. He's also very quick to jack his prices up to gouger levels should an opportunity arise. In addition that that, he plays games with the inventory on his site to make it appear that inventory is significantly lower than it actually is. Again to have people think they have to buy what's left before it sells out.

So with that in mind, I take anything that his marketing emails say with a grain of salt. I'm not saying that he's wrong on this as none of us know exactly what will happen, but I also wouldn't take it as anything other than marketing. My guess is that we'll miss out on Russian ammo, but other than 7.62x39, 5.45x39, etc. I doubt it'll change the market all that much. I'm also pretty skeptical of his estimation of the amount of 9mm, 5.56, etc. made up of Russian ammo. I highly doubt it's anywhere near 30-40%.

 

[JDeere]

I haven't read the whole thread, but my opinion on this is that it's a marketing email from Sam. I really like Sam. He's a great guy to talk to. We've dealt with him quite a bit at work.

That said, this is how Sam is. He is always looking for an opportunity, as most salesmen are. He would warn of a panic years before there were any signs of a panic, trying to create one to increase his sales. He's also very quick to jack his prices up to gouger levels should an opportunity arise. In addition that that, he plays games with the inventory on his site to make it appear that inventory is significantly lower than it actually is. Again to have people think they have to buy what's left before it sells out.

So with that in mind, I take anything that his marketing emails say with a grain of salt. I'm not saying that he's wrong on this as none of us know exactly what will happen, but I also wouldn't take it as anything other than marketing. My guess is that we'll miss out on Russian ammo, but other than 7.62x39, 5.45x39, etc. I doubt it'll change the market all that much. I'm also pretty skeptical of his estimation of the amount of 9mm, 5.56, etc. made up of Russian ammo. I highly doubt it's anywhere near 30-40%.

This right here sums it up nicely...I have bought a lot from Sam at the right times and at fair prices. Sam has thrown in free shipping for the month as a perk for high priced ammo. My locals have ammo on the shelf and at much better prices these days.

 

[Airborne Falcon]

So, I'm curious- how many new owners are around? I doubt many post here, we're all pretty much longtime shooters.

But the new guys- panic-buy a Glock or M&P, or something like that, in the last year. Looks for ammo. Looks for ammo. Looks for.... you get the point.

You make a good point (if I am reading you correctly) insomuch as new gun owners, first time gun owners to be more succinct, are not as price adverse as we are because they've never bought ammo before now so these prices do not seem unreasonable to them ... thus, "the new normal."

All the first time buyers care about is having ammo for their new pistol or AR or whatever (when in truth most of them should-be buying shotguns - but whatever) and then they get caught-up in the frenzy being perpetrated by the message boards and social media and now even, to some extent, the MSM has caught-on. So they search and search and search and hope to buy more ... because they're not adverse to the new norm prices as we are.

Again, thus it is a never ending cycle, (or so it seems at the moment) of gun manufacturers at max production levels supplying a new market (especially blacks and women) in need of ammo to feed their shiney new pew pews.

Nothing wrong with that, it is what it is, but this ban on Russian imports most definitely is going-to have a negative affect on the supply chain side of things that is already teetering on another major shortage with this one possibly lasting much konger than the last.

For me at least, imho, the key indicator in the U.S. market remains lack of reloading components. Everything begins and ends there and honestly I see no relief in sight. Sure, a few things here and there began to appear for a ahort while but almost all of that has once again come to a screeching halt the moment this ban was announced.

One possible solution to the Russian caliber steel cased shortages than are impending? Simple .... produce more reloadable brass to fill the niche but, guess what, that goes back to what I suggested above ... until we see the shelves once-again full with primers, powders and pills, this issue shall linger.

 

[Airborne Falcon]

I'm also pretty skeptical of his estimation of the amount of 9mm, 5.56, etc. made up of Russian ammo. I highly doubt it's anywhere near 30-40%.

I tend to agree with you there and I believe some of those numbers being quoted are based upon the production numbers themselves provided by the Russian ammo makers ... and I do believe those numbers to be accurate and true but I also know for a fact that much of that NATO caliber inventory was/is going-to the European and South American markets not to mention the illicit north African trade.

Talking to a couple of my contractor friends I would comment upon how I wish they would pick-up brass and send it back to me (jokingly) and they would laugh and explain to me how much steel cased 9mm and 5.56 is in use over there and how the bad guys have even devised ways to reload that stuff because they go through so much of it. (I wonder how the Taliban are going to feed the 800k M4s they are now in posssession-of once Uncle Sugar's supply runs-out.)

I always found that fascinating.

I know that brass cased ammo in Brazil and Argentina is considered a luxury item that only the wealthy can afford and it has been that was down there for quite some time.

 

[Snowdog]

In my experience shopping at stores that sell ammo, I’ve seen the following amount of Russian products:

45 auto: Zero
9x18 Makarov: zero
30 carbine: zero
308 Winchester / 762x51: zero
380 Auto: zero
300 Blackout: zero
6.5 Grendel: zero

Where is all this Russian ammo being sold? I know you can buy it online, but anywhere else?

I can't remember the last time I bought ammunition off-the-shelf... maybe a couple bricks of .22LR at Walmart in the late 2010's?
I purchase all my ammunition online because I can purchase precisely what I want as opposed to settling for what's on the shelves. I also spend less too, even considering shipping fees, as I purchase several boxes or a case at a time that often will qualify me for a low flat (or sometime zero) shipping fee.

I also reload for nearly every pistol and shotgun I have, so that may have something to do with it.

My primary concern over this shady fiasco is how it will affect the price of brass/copper foreign and domestic ammunition, being the uber-cheap Russian stuff will no longer a competitor.

 

[twarr1]

(I wonder how the Taliban are going to feed the 800k M4s they are now in posssession-of once Uncle Sugar's supply runs-out.)

The US will sell it to our ‘allies’ in the Middle East and the Taliban will get it from them. Non-issue for them.

 

[DustyGmt]

I got 4 boxes of 5.56 tula, waiting for it to reach “collectable” status.

I have a box of "Norinco" 5.56 made in china. I have a sealed spam can of wolf 9mm military classic. I was already putting off shooting it, it will be a sad day when I shoot up the very last of my Russian stuff.

 

[DustyGmt]

I already feel as though this was less of "sanction" or foreign policy decision and more of a calculated, twisting knife in the backs of gun owners and shooting enthusiasts. They know that if they turn the screws and put a long term strain on shooters, less ammo, less shooting, less shooting, less shooters, less guns, less 2A votes, etc.....

I know I'm going to take it pretty hard on the .223 and 9mm front since it's most of what I shoot but at least there is massive domestic manufacturing support for those cartridges. The AK guys must feel like they just took a good dxxx-punch.

 

[The Last Outlaw]

I don't shoot steel, and I think this guy's numbers are pretty inflated, but this could definitely help to keep ammo prices up in the U.S. This was definitely not done to hurt Russia, he just did it to poke the gun owners a little more.

 

[Dale Alan]

The blame goes on the USA citizens that were buying the Russian ammo in the first place . Everyone talks tough against Russia, but folks run right out and buy it to save a buck .

 

[BlueHeelerFl]

This could be a business opportunity for some daring person. Buy up some industrial reloading equipment and space, get you manufacture FFL license and start loading these com-block cartridges here in the US.

As others have stated, where would they get the components?

And would the Biden Administration even give them the required Federal permits to legally manufacturer and sell ammo? The Russian ammo ban is to hurt the American shooting community, so why would the Feds ease up on them?

 

[BlueHeelerFl]

I'm sure the Russians will have no problem selling ammo to everyone in Afghanistan to feed those hundreds of thousands of US supplied weapons.

That's a much better result than allowing US citizens to shoot or hoard it. /sarcasm

 

[mcb]

As others have stated, where would they get the components?

And would the Biden Administration even give them the required Federal permits to legally manufacturer and sell ammo? The Russian ammo ban is to hurt the American shooting community, so why would the Feds ease up on them?

This is not a material shortage. There is no shortage of copper, zinc, and lead. There is no shortage of the chemicals to make powder and priming compounds. This is a shortage of manufacturing capacity relative to the market demand. If you have the industrial ammunition manufacturing equipment, and have all your legal paper work in order you can easily order the raw materials to manufacture ammunitions from raw material.

 

[Racinfan83]

This right here sums it up nicely...I have bought a lot from Sam at the right times and at fair prices. Sam has thrown in free shipping for the month as a perk for high priced ammo. My locals have ammo on the shelf and at much better prices these days.

Where are you? None of the stores around me (west of St Louis) have anything. Some have 9mm, 40, .223, and 350 legend? - but of course I bought lots of that when it was cheap. (Except for 350 legend - I don't even know what that is) I can't find any 38 special, 44 special, 44 mag etc anywhere except online...

 

[illinoisburt]

Truth be told, back in 2016 many of us were expecting the Russian supply line to be cut by the Hillary administration (along with a bunch of other restrictions like a reconstituted AWB and the state dept prohibiting any nato surplus as non-sporting). It was only the shocking upset win by Trump that put those fears to rest for a while. So in many ways this move EO is not exactly shocking. Its just an unfortunate continuation of the path we were on pre-Trump.

 

[Mars5l]

I think the hoopla is settling down around here. Prices have gone up though. Was in Rural King today, they had Wolf 7.62x39 for $12.99 a box. Right next to it was Norma brass 7.62x39 for the price. There was piles of both, unless there is some particular need to have the Wolf, I grabbed some Norma instead.

I am on the fence on getting some 5.45x39 incase I ever end up with an Ak74 since it looks no one biu Russia makes. I want a VZ52 but it shoots 7.62x45 and no one makes that it looks like

 

[DustyGmt]

The blame goes on the USA citizens that were buying the Russian ammo in the first place . Everyone talks tough against Russia, but folks run right out and buy it to save a buck .

Do you have smoke detectors in your house? How bout patio furniture, flat screen TV, mobile phone, computer, etc...?
You see where I'm going. I'd bet my red wings that you are likely not without sin in terms of having and purchasing foreign made products, even products made by our enemies.

I could be wrong and every appliance, shirt, lamp, tool, vehicle, etc you own is made in the USA, but you can't very well claim moral superiority if you're guilty of the same thing. If it was just a matter of a few bucks, I'd fork over the extra for the superior ammo, but it's roughly, at least it was roughly 30%-40%. I was shooting alot and can't afford to be that virtuous.

Just saying. I like your avatar btw.....

 

[Ignition Override]

What serious fraction of the US' most important pharmaceuticals (or components) come from China?

What we buy from Russia doesn't even compare to a tiny bit of what Americans demand- partly due to lower prices - to be manufactured in "global powerhouse China".

And China is a far bigger threat to maritime right - of - way, shipping, fishing etc. Taiwan also looks to us for support (maybe not so much Now...). Fentanyl often comes, conveniently, from China to Mexico, into the US.

But personal ammo from Romania, Ukraine, even Tula Russia - which helps keep US-made prices from going higher- bothers people.......well, ok.

 

[Phaedrus/69]

He's also very quick to jack his prices up to gouger levels should an opportunity arise. In addition that that, he plays games with the inventory on his site to make it appear that inventory is significantly lower than it actually is. Again to have people think they have to buy what's left before it sells out.

Are you talking about the same SGAmmo the rest of us are buying from? In the years I've been a customer they've never jacked up the price to gouger levels like LowerThanDirt. Sure, their prices rise when it rises everywhere but they're very rarely the highest out there and usually pretty reasonable compared to other vendors. In normal market conditions (which granted we might not see again for many years) they're among the lowest priced out there.

 

[commygun]

Low price reliable guns do create their own niche market, just don't assume it's a small one. When that option disappears people don't suddenly pony up the cash for the more expensive ones. They are simply priced out.

Yes and no. My, well, Commie guns, were never the first-string of my gun collection. I don’t know many shooters whose firearms are primarily Chinese/East European. And it’s a rare first-time gun owner who has the confidence to choose, unguided, a relatively exotic surplus firearm. And that guy, with his lone SKS or Makarov, probably isn’t burning up piles of Russian ammo, especially years after the inexpensive heyday of the surplus arms and ammo.

I think Sam is being a bit pessimistic here. Supply and demand, sure. But the former is no more static than the latter.

 

[Ivy Mike]

I see this as a huge opportunity for the economies of friendly countries such the Czech Republic, Serbia, and the Phillipines. I dont think the domestics will add significant capacity to compete for low-margin products.

I was seriously thinking this is what was going to happen. Russia and China talk with Duterte, and get a law passed that says ammo is not manufactured until it is weighed for consistency and placed in a box. Philippines based companies box up Russian and Chinese ammo, mark it Made in Philippines and ship it out.

Wouldn't hold breath, Clinton banned ammo and after three presidents after him two of which were firearms friendly overall it is still in effect while Chinese imports overall increased massively. Currently the top imports from Russia from what I read is gas, oil and iron and have increased since last year, yet the Biden administration didn't go after those instead they used a excuse to punish gun owners

It's not just a punishment for gun owners. It's a non-essential item for the US and one that makes up a substantial portion of Russian exports to the US. If you wanted to squeeze Russia, ammo is a good place to do it.
of course, if we just had friendly trade and commerce with all, and alliances with none like old Thomas Jefferson told us, this wouldn't even be an issue.

 

[brunowbe]

It's not just a punishment for gun owners. It's a non-essential item for the US and one that makes up a substantial portion of Russian exports to the US. If you wanted to squeeze Russia, ammo is a good place to do it.

Lol! You cannot be serious. This was totally nothing more than back door gun control. This does not hurt Russia one bit. Squeezing Russia would have been going after their energy sector with sanctions, not ammo.

Wow, I cannot believe I read this on a gun forum of all places.

 

[Airborne Falcon]

This latest article from The Federalist puts it all into perspective and lays-out their goals and aims ...

https://thefederalist.com/2021/08/3...your-gun-rights-without-passing-any-new-laws/

Excerpted fair use - article entirety linked above.

How Democrats Are Using Economic Chokeholds To Restrict Your Gun Rights Without Passing Any New Laws
The State Department announced new sanctions banning the importation of ammunition and firearms from Russia, a decision that comes in the midst of a large ammunition shortage.
By Justin Haskins

President Joe Biden’s State Department announced new sanctions banning the importation of ammunition and firearms from Russia, a decision that comes in the midst of a large ammunition shortage that has forced U.S. retailers to depend on foreign suppliers to meet demand. Since 2019, ammunition imports have increased by about 225 percent.

President Biden and his elitist allies in woke banks and investment firms know that severe restrictions on Second Amendment rights aren’t possible given the current composition of the Supreme Court, thanks in large part to President Trump. So they are turning to other tactics instead, most of which aren’t being covered by the press, to get the job done. It’s working.

For more than a decade, investors, banks, and other financial institutions have been dragging U.S. corporations toward the full adoption of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, posing a significant threat to the long-term survival of the firearms industry.

Continued here in its entirety .... https://thefederalist.com/2021/08/3...your-gun-rights-without-passing-any-new-laws/

 

[Neo-Luddite]

The guys who shoot 5.45 are SOL, and the guys who shoot 7.62x39 are going to have to re-evaluate their usage.

Yeh...I'm wishing I'd added to my Wolf stockpile for my Yugo SKSs and WASR 10/63 in 7.62 x 39 Soviet. We were spoiled (for lack of a better term) for decades. Oddly, I think the 5.45 x 39 will be around for a while as 1) When the 7n6 became non-importable and deemed 'armor piercing' pistol ammo (!) what was previously thought of as 11 cent blasting ammo was squirreled away in spam cans and has been sitting in basements ever since---BUT had been imported by the millions! 2) In the interim years, super-cheap NATO 5.56 sold as overrun/surplus lured many former 5.45 x 39 guys away from that caliber altogether or for practical purposes. 3) So the guys with AK 74s and ARs that eat that caliber are a much smaller number. In that respect I bet that not much movement will be seen in 5.45 x 39...it was already "Dead" to many and there is a SERIOUS domestic stockpile in store.