Shortage - Where are the ammo component inventories going?

[ArtP]

Sam, I just can't see that happening, multiple trucks going to PV for 100 pounds each. And again, I don't think they'd combine bullets with hazmat if that were the case.

No UPS driver is haz-mat certified. None of them, unless they just choose to do so on their own. UPS does not want them certified. As long as you keep less than 100 lbs of powder on each truck, Haz-mat certification is not required for the driver. Therefore, they limit shippers to 100 lbs of powder per truck so they do not have to deal with haz-mat certification. Once you hit 100 lbs, the entire truck is reclassified as a 1.3C explosives shipment. This means you need to carry additional insurance on the vehicles (expensive), the drivers must have a haz-mat certification on their CDL (limits the number of potential drivers you have to choose from), you need to run placards, and the route must be pre-planned and written out before you leave (with a complete inventory of the items you are hauling).

As your friend mentioned, that certification and insurance is expensive. IMO that's perhaps why the hazmat fee is as high as it is.

I'm going to ask them. They're pretty easy going and have always answered my questions in the past. If I get a response I'll post it.

 

[Sam1911]

Sam, I just can't see that happening, multiple trucks going to PV for 100 pounds each. And again, I don't think they'd combine bullets with hazmat if that were the case.

What? No, no, not 100 lbs. total, only 100 lbs. of hazmat stuff in the load. I'm sure they make up loads with as much other stuff as they can.

I'm going to ask them. They're pretty easy going and have always answered my questions in the past. If I get a response I'll post it.

Great! Please do that!

 

[ArtP]

What? No, no, not 100 lbs. total, only 100 lbs. of hazmat stuff in the load. I'm sure they make up loads with as much other stuff as they can.

But if I order a bunch of bullets and primers, the bullets are the bulk of the weight, and they're shipped in the same box with the primers. My 40 pound box may only have five pounds of hazmat, but to the carrier it's 40 pounds of hazmat. It's either a hazmat package, or it's not. Don't you think they'd separate hazmat if bullets and other non hazmat were going toward that 100 pound limit?

 

[Sam1911]

Interesting point. But that's shipped to YOU. I'd doubt that shipments to dealers would be done that way because that would unnaturally reduce the amount of Hazmat stuff they could get at a time. 100 lbs. is limited enough!

Again, though, find out better info if you're able.

 

[oneounceload]

100#? I used to watch semis coming out of the Army depot in Hawthorne, NV - those folks were carrying 40,000 pounds or ordnance

As much as St. marks makes and ships in one day, I can't imagine them only putting 100# on a truck

 

[KansasSasquatch]

But if I order a bunch of bullets and primers, the bullets are the bulk of the weight, and they're shipped in the same box with the primers. My 40 pound box may only have five pounds of hazmat, but to the carrier it's 40 pounds of hazmat. It's either a hazmat package, or it's not. Don't you think they'd separate hazmat if bullets and other non hazmat were going toward that 100 pound limit?

If you order 10lbs of powder and 30lbs of bullets, that's not a 40lb hazmat to UPS. I used to work at UPS's main hub in KS. When loading semi trailers we had hazmat slips to pull everytime it was put into a different trailer. Every slip I've ever pulled had a net weight of the hazmat material. If there's a spill they like to know exactly how much of the material they need to recover.

PV's website says they will ship up to 48lbs of powder/primers for one hazmat fee. But it also says that orders of 200lbs or more can be shipped through UPS with reduced freight charges. It makes me think they do have a small semi trailer showing up at least every few days to be filled and taken to the UPS facility in Wichita KS (FedEx stuff tends to go through an OK facility). But from what people have posted about Bruno's only being able to put 100lbs on a truck, I'm thinking that they may indeed have a 100lb rule for UPS package cars. So it probably hurts the small shops more than it hurts companies like PV. With the volume PV ships there's just no way they'd be able to get by with only 100lbs per truck, they'd be non stop loading them up.

 

[ArtP]

KS: Thanks for enlightening me. Everything you wrote makes sense.

 

[Sam1911]

100#? I used to watch semis coming out of the Army depot in Hawthorne, NV - those folks were carrying 40,000 pounds or ordnance

That's a semi trailer, which certainly would be able to follow the large scale explosives shipment rules, not a UPS cube van.

 

[BullfrogKen]

When Dillon goes into an extended 60 day backlog on presses, you know the shortage is the explosive growth in new reloaders. Dies and everything are backordered.

This is simply an unprecedented level of demand.

 

[ArtP]

I did get a response from Powder Valley.

Me:

Powder Valley is often the subject of discussion on reloading forums. Some
intelligent people believe the shortage might be worsened because
your shippers can only pickup 100 pounds of hazmat per truck. I.e., 1,000
pounds of outgoing shipment would require 10 fedex trucks.

Can you clarify this for us?

Here's the rumor, if interested:

No UPS driver is haz-mat certified. None of them, unless they just choose to
do so on their own. UPS does not want them certified. As long as you keep
less than 100 lbs of powder on each truck, Haz-mat certification is not
required for the driver. Therefore, they limit shippers to 100 lbs of powder
per truck so they do not have to deal with haz-mat certification. Once you
hit 100 lbs, the entire truck is reclassified as a 1.3C explosives shipment.
This means you need to carry additional insurance on the vehicles
(expensive), the drivers must have a haz-mat certification on their CDL
(limits the number of potential drivers you have to choose from), you need
to run placards, and the route must be pre-planned and written out before
you leave (with a complete inventory of the items you are hauling).

The information below is pretty much accurate. However, this has nothing to
do with the shortage of powder. This does cause delays because shippers are
only able to ship out as much powder as they have UPS/FedEx trucks available
to ship. This also causes transportation problems as hazmat travels
throughout the US. At each transfer point UPS/FedEx must have certified
hazmat personnel available to inspect and distribute the powder separately
so that more than 100 lbs is not placed on any one driver. That means if a
driver is pulling 3 trailers, only a total of 100 lbs can go on those 3
trailers. This is why UPS/FedEx delivery times are not guaranteed on hazmat
packages and sometimes you see abnormal delays during shipping. However,
again, this has absolutely nothing to do with the shortage of powder.
The DOT did provide another classification a couple of years ago for powder.
It is 1.4C. Powder classified as 1.4C would have the capabilities of having
1000 lbs transported per person. However, the DOT has made it very
difficult to obtain this classification and none of the powder importers
have been able to obtain the classification on their full line yet. If the
DOT will address this issue it will make the transportation of powder much
easier in the future. Considering the current political climate I don't
foresee this as a point they are willing to fully address at this time.

In regards to powder shortage. I can tell you we are only receiving about
5% of what powder we order on a weekly basis from Hodgdon, IMR and
Winchester. There is absolutely no Vihtavuori available. Alliant, Ramshot
and Accurate currently are having lead times of 8 weeks and we still only
receive about 30% of what is ordered. Keep in mind we are not ordering 100
lbs at a time. We are typically ordering between 10,000 and 60,000 lbs of
powder at a time depending on the manufacturer. These shipments come in as
1.3C and therefore there is no limit on what the manufacturer can ship us.
Thus, the reason for me stating that the shortage has nothing to do with the
limit of 100 lbs per driver by the DOT for a 4.1 classification.
I hope this fully answers your questions. If not please shoot me an email
and I would be glad to clarify further.

Thanks
Bryan

 

[Sam1911]

Awesome clarification! Send him a thank you from all of us here at THR!

 

[rajbcpa]

So CNN is reporting that, at the direction of the White House, the IRS targeted certain Tea Party groups who were applying for status as tax-exempt organizations. Apparently, the IRS has admitted this and said they are not doing this anymore because it was not a nice thing to do.

This must have been directed as a result of one of those secret executive orders that do not require Congressional oversight.

....And Obama did not do anything to create an ammo and ammo components shortage? Hmmmm.

 

[villagelightsmith]

We've been through these panics before. This panic just seems to be based on a threat that is perceived as (and, I believe, is) a bit more substantive. I've been slowly building a pile of such supplies over the last few decades, so have been in a position to pass a bit forward to ease the strain for a few other shooters. Only one, an elderly gentleman, has abused this by taking far more than he could use and scalping the market. I'm about to break out the old Corbin presses and dies. Just doin' my part.

 

[huntsman]

If the DOT will address this issue it will make the transportation of powder much
easier in the future. Considering the current political climate I don't
foresee this as a point they are willing to fully address at this time.

A perfect storm of confining (unnecessary)regulations, extreme reaction that led to panic buying and a flawed system of inventory(JIT) shows us how serious this is and should dictate one's future actions.

 

[Ken70]

I wonder what volume of powder PV was ordering a week, before November, 2012. He said they are now only getting 5% of the order, are they ordering 10X as much, which might be 50% of the pre-panic order?

 

[Cosmoline]

Ask any shop owner. It's going to *US*. We're the problem. We buy stuff up the second it reappears on the shelves, and the longer the shortages last the broader they get. Heck a local store is actually selling off a pallet full of 7.5 French! People are just buying whatever is there. And I'm part of the problem too. I've snatched up primers, powder and even bought an AK-74 to take advantage of the 2,000 rounds of 5.45 I bought. The manufacturers estimated X demand and we gave them X times 10. The just-in-time system of delivery means there are no Indiana Jones warehouses for a lot of this stuff. And the shortages are across the board so factory space is instantly backlogged. Maybe for years when it comes to certain ammo.

It will calm down when we calm down and the factories have a chance to catch up. But you have to calm down first, because I'm still buying! LOL

 

[rajbcpa]

The ammo threat in New York is NOT perceived. It is REAL!

We have an ammo purchase background check law In NY that will take affect in 2014. This will prohibit all Internet purchases of ammo and likely of ammo components like powder and primers, brass and projectiles.

In order to buy ammo after 2013, you need to go to an FFL who will perform a background check and sell you the evil goods. By law, a background check information will be kept by NYS in a data base and the information will be required to be forwarded immediately after the purchase to your local police department for their possible action.

This is effectively a firearms registry. The information from the background check system will be matched against your firearms registration data and any inconsistencies will be fully investigated.

Example: If you own a so-called assault weapon but fail to register it with NYS according to the new law, you will get your door kicked in by a NY swat team after you buy 50 rounds of 223 Remington assault weapon ammo.

So yeh, people in NY are buying up all the ammo and ammo components they can in 2013.

 

[orionengnr]

The reality is that there are 230 million guns owned by citizens

I think it surpassed 300 million several years ago.
That is a lot of mouths to feed.

FWIW, I have not bought a round of loaded ammo since 2010-2011..and that was .22LR, back when it was readily available...
Yes, I recently placed an order from Missouri Bullet, and they quoted 3-4 weeks. I can wait until they deliver.

 

[valleyforge.1777]

I think that much of the shortage, not sure how much -- maybe 50-75%, is retailers holding back supply from their customers. For example, my local gun shop has no ammo on the shelves, but they are (openly) selling cases of ammo on GunBroker for high prices. Another example, all of a sudden the local gun shops all have tons of AR's on the shelves. When did the factory truck back up to these shops and unload dozens and dozens of AR's? Well, probably the rifles were in storage by the shops all along.

My guess is that retailers expected Congress to pass severe gun controls and bans. I think they were holding back a lot of rifles, mags, and ammo so that when the bans passed, they could quickly offer the vast supplies to their customers for VERY high "last chance to buy" prices in the interim between when the laws passed and when they took effect.

 

[Peter M. Eick]

My impression is more along the lines of the UPS comments and the demand issues above.

Due to the shortages of ammo, many got into reloading.
Due to the shortages, many bought more than the normally would creating more shortage
Due to the more shortages, some went into panic mode and bought it all
Due to the gov action and proposed bans, many new shooters got into the sport
Due to gov/ups regulations, not enough material can be transported in a timely fashion.

Due to all of the above, the only solution is time. Capitalism will solve this short term demand problem by increasing the price on available resources, reducing demand in the short term and infilling the resources to exploit the higher prices, thus over time driving down the price and demand.

The key is time and lack of gov influence to solve this problem. Left alone the business world will solve this problem back to a new level.

 

[papaairbear]

I agree with you Peter. Although I believe prices will again, as they have historically through these times, be higher. As VF1777 said, I'm seeing more AR's in the racks at LGS I frequent but at least $300.00 higher than they were. On a positive note, what this administration did accomplish was to arm the American Public. A fitting legacy....and stay tuned for more!!

 

[huntsman]

. For example, my local gun shop has no ammo on the shelves, but they are (openly) selling cases of ammo on GunBroker for high prices. Another example, all of a sudden the local gun shops all have tons of AR's on the shelves. When did the factory truck back up to these shops and unload dozens and dozens of AR's? Well, probably the rifles were in storage by the shops all along.

I for one think that any shop who carried a traditional inventory should be profiting from it, after all it costs them money to carry an inventory.

WW and JIT are what's buyers are conditioned to so when that's disrupted they freak out, the truth is this system is more vulnerable than people will want to admit and whether it's food or ammo there's something to be said for buying local from stores who are willing to carry inventory even if it costs you more, at least you'll have an opportunity to buy.

 

[Sam1911]

Of course, love or hate the WW/JIT inventory model (which strips so much waste and non-value-added cost from most of our lives these days) -- no store anywhere, and no combination of stores anywhere, could have sat on enough inventory to have made even a momentary dent in the current run on ammo.

 

[Piratesailor]

Awhile back I did a little research on the ammunition supply chain. Given all the components and chemicals, not to mention the commodity minerals, it's a very fragile supply chain. With Peter' correct analysis I'm surprised we have what we do have.

I think a major impact on the supply will be government backing off. Since that obviously won't happen, what we have is probably here for awhile. 2014 and 2016 may change that on a national level but not the liberal states.

True, capitalism and supply and demand will level things out but the government negates that, to some degree, with their actions/threats.

If I was in nys, after what I read, I'd be hoarding like crazy... Or moving.

 

[stavman11]

I live 1 mile from Cabela's in AZ

I have noticed and increase in availability of pretty much everything....

1 month ago... people standing in Line when they open to get Rounds... I went yesterday... No 9mm or .22 but had everything else in stock... and a lot... and that was at 11am.

I have seem a nice turnstyle stock of all AR's they normaly Have... even a S&W Sport... almost got it... like I NEED 2...LOL... 15-22, Colts... all of em

yesterday they had a Very good supply of Powder also... not many Primers... But I almost got some Powder... just Becouse....

Bruno's is also local... and I can get pretty much anything in stock... Primers and Powder... some of the more popular Powders are harder to get.. but lots of alternates available.....


It is getting better....