underestimating the bg

[Fred Fuller]

We've mentioned this study before- not 'new news' but still useful:

http://www.forcesciencenews.com/home/detail.html?serial=62

NEW FINDINGS FROM FBI ABOUT COP ATTACKERS & THEIR WEAPONS

New findings on how offenders train with, carry and deploy the weapons they use to attack police officers have emerged in a just-published, 5-year study by the FBI.

Among other things, the data reveal that most would-be cop killers:

--show signs of being armed that officers miss;

--have more experience using deadly force in "street combat" than their intended victims;

--practice with firearms more often and shoot more accurately;

--have no hesitation whatsoever about pulling the trigger. "If you hesitate," one told the study's researchers, "you're dead. You have the instinct or you don't. If you don't, you're in trouble on the street...."

These and other weapons-related findings comprise one chapter in a 180-page research summary called "Violent Encounters: A Study of Felonious Assaults on Our Nation's Law Enforcement Officers." The study is the third in a series of long investigations into fatal and nonfatal attacks on POs by the FBI team of Dr. Anthony Pinizzotto, clinical forensic psychologist, and Ed Davis, criminal investigative instructor, both with the Bureau's Behavioral Science Unit, and Charles Miller III, coordinator of the LEOs Killed and Assaulted program.

///snip - follow link above for article, the most current data re. LEOs Killed and Assaulted is in the FBI UCR (Uniform Crime Reports) at http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/killed/2008/ .

=====

lpl

 

[Zoogster]

We've mentioned this study before- not 'new news' but still useful:

http://www.forcesciencenews.com/home...html?serial=62

NEW FINDINGS FROM FBI ABOUT COP ATTACKERS & THEIR WEAPONS

Cops face a wider variety of criminals though. Since the cop often runs across a really bad criminal wanted on warrants unexpectedly in a routine traffic stop, or while investigating some event or party.
The result can be explosive and unexpected violence against the officers involved by some well trained and armed individuals. So some really bad guys not involved in your typical violent crimes unleash on the officers.

Officers also are tasked with stopping criminals while they are engaged in some major crimes. Like the infamous North Hollywood shootout.
Your typical citizen does not often face individuals who train and plan extensively to commit violent crime, because those criminals don't spend all that effort to go after your wallet.
They tend to be involved in the drug business or go after bigger targets.
(They do occasionally form home invasion rings.)



This is not to say there is not some very capable bad guys citizens will face. There is. Just that by definition the better trained and capable are not going after small change in the most common of robbery scenarios your average civilian is likely to face.
Cops face a wider variety, including the organized ones who they stumble across or plan raids on.
Now a citizen may tick off a very bad guy with extensive training who they then wind up in a violent situation with, but they are less likely to be initially targeted by them as a stranger for some sort of financial gain.
Unless of course they are known to have extensive valuables. Like money, large amounts of jewelry, drugs, or one that applies specifically to some on the highroad: extensive firearm collections.
If you have thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of dollars in some valuable item that is easy to sell on the black market, or in high demand, then you are more apt to attract well trained criminals.

If the local organized crime ring or cartel thinks they can arm a hundred of their people with your firearm collection they have learned about, then you may face them someday. Something to think about when posting about collections.
But your typical citizen most often faces rather dumb criminals, who are desperate and in need of small quantities of cash, often for expensive drug habits. If they had valuable skills they would typically have better ways to make small quantities of cash than risking a lot in violent crime.
The desperation and often lack of foresight can make them unpredictable and dangerous, but not very sophisticated. They may pull the trigger for little or no reason. Because the wallet or register has little cash, or even when the person cooperates (which means they get experienced homicide detectives after them rather than just being a robbery.)
That stupidity is scary, but it is what it is.

 

[easyg]

Just that by definition the better trained and capable are not going after small change in the most common of robbery scenarios your average civilian is likely to face.

Not true.
The SMARTER criminals will not risk their lives for "small change"....but these are the SMARTER criminals, not necessarily the criminals more capable of committing violence.

Look at it this way....

The mafia uses hitmen to take out those whom they want dead.
But the hitmen themselves are seldom very high up in the mafia....they are just specialized foot-soldiers (so to speak).
They are very good at what they do, which is killing people.
But they are not great mastermind criminals by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[pbearperry]

Criminals cannot buy ammo anywhere if they are convicted of a crime,even at Walmart.

 

[uspJ]

Not true.
The SMARTER criminals will not risk their lives for "small change"....but these are the SMARTER criminals, not necessarily the criminals more capable of committing violence.

exactly

another thing to consider is now that the economy is going down the drain and unemployment is rising daily a new more desperate criminal is emerging, this is a criminal who may be trying to feed his/her family, keep their home etc. these people under normal circumstances wouldn't commit crimes but due to the situation they're in they feel compelled to "do what they have to do".

 

[uspJ]

Criminals cannot buy ammo anywhere if they are convicted of a crime,even at Walmart.

i'm not a felon but i can't remember the last time i was carded for buying ammo...even at walmart. i'm sure the stores i frequent aren't the only ones who do this so it's probably safe to say that they buy it at places where they aren't checked for prior felonies.

 

[Arkansas Paul]

-"most of the time they'll be high on drugs or fiending for their next fix."

This may be true sometimes, and if it is, all it is going to do is make the criminal MORE dangerous.
I agree with your OP. Underestimating someone is a good way to get hurt or killed.

Criminals cannot buy ammo anywhere if they are convicted of a crime,even at Walmart.

I don't know how they do it in the People's Republic or Massechusetts, but here, if you go anywhere to buy ammo and you look like you're over 21, the only question they ask is "How many boxes would you like?" What do you think they do, call in a background check before you buy ammo? Surely Mass isn't that much different than every other state in the Union.

 

[mrokern]

Criminals cannot buy ammo anywhere if they are convicted of a crime,even at Walmart.

Sure they can...go to the counter, look 21 or older, and whip out the cash.

 

[X-Rap]

Acting as though some ammo restriction will keep us safe from crime falls right into the big brother mentality that furthers government meddling.
Criminals get what they want no matter how, that is what makes them criminals.

 

[Zoogster]

Acting as though some ammo restriction will keep us safe from crime falls right into the big brother mentality that furthers government meddling.
Criminals get what they want no matter how, that is what makes them criminals.

Well in California by next year everyone is going to have to submit a fingerprint to buy ammo. Internet ammo purchases shipped to the home are prohibited, so most good deals are gone. Less popular calibers will be hard to find a good deal on, or find at all in some cases.
Not just a fingerprint, but basically all the information required on a 4473 will be required at the state level just to purchase ammo, or magazines, or bullets for handguns.
It also becomes mandatory they keep it all crowded behind the counter. I cannot even read it from as far away as it is sometimes behind a counter, and some smaller places they have much less space to stock ammo as a result.

Criminals buy ammo at Walmart just like everyone else.

It is quite possible Walmart will stop selling handgun ammunition after the California law goes into effect, at least in California. Just like they stopped selling long guns in California years ago.
It simply became too much of a hassle and too risky. Now that the exact same risk and procedure will be required for ammo as the long guns they stopped selling, I doubt they will continue to sell it.
One of the best places for inexpensive ammo used to be K-mart, but under anti-gun pressure they stopped selling ammo altogether.

Comments like that will just leave you with few sources of ammo, huge hassles to get it, and unable to obtain ammo from the less expensive sources like online.


In my experience the ammo restrictions are not going to stop crime. Most career criminals rarely feel the need to fire their gun. They commit multiple crimes with a gun that never needs to be reloaded. A criminal could get by with a full magazine for years, or until the gun is confiscated in most cases.
While the recreational shooter goes through hundreds and more often thousands of rounds in the same time period.
Hundreds of rounds is nothing in recreation. If the budget allows thousands could be used in under an hour at the range.

So there is such a large volume of rounds used in shooting sports that the handful needed to keep a criminal armed for months or a year is very insignificant by comparison.
If they can get a gun, either stolen or in a straw purchase then they should have no trouble obtaining at least a full magazine. In fact in many states where people store a firearm in a vehicle they keep it loaded. Vehicles are broken into all the time. So such stolen guns will come pre-loaded.
Guns stored in a home are often stored with ammo or loaded. A single box of 50 will keep a typical criminal well armed and allow for numerous robberies with few or no shots, and even several murders.
Maybe you want legislation to stop the ability to store or keep loaded weapons to reduce that too? Maybe some legislation requiring ammo be stored in a safe? Maybe the safe needs to weigh X number of pounds so it deters more?
Maybe some laws requiring someone belong to X gun club for Y number of months to purchase ammo to reduce straw purchases?
Those laws should both push gun ownership out of the hands of low income people, and make it such a hassle that half of middle class people that would have purchased a gun or enjoyed shooting sports no longer do. Reducing those fighting for gun rights.
They have done these things in parts of Europe and Australia.

 

[mljdeckard]

I have never been asked for ID at Walmart when buying ammo.

 

[Ryder]

Only gun I had stuck in my face was a 38 S&W. It was fully loaded with lead round nose. It was an old gun but I have no doubt it would've fired if the trigger was pulled. Criminal marksmanship would not have mattered because of the proximity and the thought of the gun misfiring never entered my thoughts, guaranteed.

There is no doubt that most of my attackers over the years were using mind altering substances. I've used that to my advantage. They were easily caught off-guard by quick actions and easily confused/distracted by attempts at reasoning. But you're right, it is not something people should count on.

I've read stories where badguys ran after being shot and some where they didn't. If I reach for my gun to defend myself the only thing I plan for is to eliminate any threat to my safety before I am injured. If they're quick enough to prevent me from accomplishing that goal by running away I'll be utterly amazed.

I think we discuss these things in our scenarios because they do happen and we like to be prepared for various possibilites... But I don't know that anybody realistically expects them or depends on them?

Life and death situations are the most situational things I've ever experienced. I pre-plan nothing for certain. I play these incidents freestyle where anything can happen and anything is possible. I turn my instinct for survival loose and it does it's thing. That is a game plan that hasn't failed me yet and I'm sticking to it.

 

[trol79]

Good evening, every BG, even worst shooter with the badest gun&ammo of the world is a dangerous tread that should never be underestimated because with bad aim and an unprecise/weak gun and and distance, he can allways hit you lethal just by luck. That is how I understand it.

 

[shockwave]

I pre-plan nothing for certain. I play these incidents freestyle where anything can happen and anything is possible. I turn my instinct for survival loose and it does it's thing. That is a game plan that hasn't failed me yet and I'm sticking to it.

Very well stated. In the martial art I study now there are no set drills with attacker and defender. We may study a principle, like "yank downward" or "roll shoulder," but in application practice the attacker is allowed to do anything within reason as long as it's a good, honest attack with follow-through. The idea is that you don't know what an assailant will do and you have to develop your ability to roll with whatever is happening, automatically and instinctively. If you have to think it through, you'll be way too slow.

This is why gun drills where you don't know beforehand what you'll be facing are especially good practice. You want to be flexible and adaptable, because the BGs always have the advantage of knowing what they are going to do, and they get to go first. As defenders, the only edge we can obtain is relentless practice and training to the point where our responses are correct and preternaturally fast.

Y'know, you almost have to think that on their side, the Bad Guys must have similar discussions amongst themselves - thinking about how the "average" citizen will react to an assault. They probably make a lot of assumptions themselves about how the victim will respond and what the performance envelope of the target is. Our job is to give them a very bad day at the office.

 

[Gritacular]

I don't know why people even assume their adversary is going to be a "criminal" or a "bad guy"?

-You’re walking a quite dark street at night and you notice a suspicious man walking towards you who goes for his pocket, you reach for your gun and a he draws his, a gun-fight ensues. When he was just scared of you and wanted to feel his weapon in his hand.

-You run into a well practiced shooter who has become desolate, disillusioned (for whatever reason) and decides to go on a killing-spree.

-You’re in a domestic dispute and a distant family member pulls a gun on you.

-You have to deal with a local violent extremist political faction who have supporters and view themselves as just.

-You need to defend your food supplies from other people just trying to feed themselves and their families during a suspension of services.

Your adversary in these scenarios would most likely not fall under obvious “bad guy” or “criminal” until the action, and it is subjective. Is this Disney? Are there always Bad Guys and Good Guys?

My only point is that I agree with the OP and people need to be ready for it all.

 

[uspJ]

gritacular

nice post! i've thought about many of the potential threats you've mentioned.

the scenario involving another ccw holder is one that i thought about a few times. how many times have we seen posts about people who feel threatened and grab the grip of their weapon or put their hand in their pocket to dissuade a possible threat?

if you were walking toward someone to ask for directions, ask for assistance with your car, etc. etc, who is to say that the person your walking toward won't assess you as a threat and reach for their weapon? what would you do at that point? would you yell out "wait! i'm a good guy!"? would you reach for your weapon while giving commands for them to stop and wait for them to escalate or deescalate and act accordingly?

 

[miamiboy]

Well said. If targeted by an individual with mal-intent, a subject will become a defender, rather than an aggressor. It would only seem logical to reason that the ensuing struggle would be a long climb from the pits, to get out of trouble, and that it should be treated as such. No need to bring your "B-game" to an "A-game" fight if your life, liberty, or property is on the line.

 

[smince]

No matter what the relation or semantics, anyone who tries to commit a felony against me or my family becomes a criminal or a BG.

 

[Deltaboy1984]

Simple answers to this Thread.

Cooper says keep aware If I remember correctly that is Yellow level.

The Gunny says be polite to everyone you meet and have a plan to kill them.

Always carry a Gun.

 

[jbrown50]

I see it repeated here and in other forums quite often that criminals are stupid. To say that someone is stupid is to say that they lack intelligence. That is mostly incorrect and is also a very dangerous assumption.

The majority of criminals know even the basic consequences of their actions so, they're not stupid. They just don't care. That's what is called a psychopath or a person who suffers from psychopathy. Like anything else there are varying degrees of psychopathy but a lack of intelligence is rarely a trait.

People who don't care are very dangerous and unpredictable. Just ask the FBI Agents who survived the Miami incident in 1986. Platt and Matix were two typical psychopaths. They robbed banks and armored cars with lots of money and, on the side, they robbed and killed ordinary citizens with very little money. They otherwise blended well into society.

 

[philpost]

I see it repeated here and in other forums quite often that criminals are stupid. To say that someone is stupid is to say that they lack intelligence. That is mostly incorrect and is also a very dangerous assumption.

+1
And even if someone is stupid, for arguments sake, it doesn't mean they haven't practiced, have tremendous amounts of muscle memory to fall back on, and have no inner voice telling them not to hurt an innocent person. The safer assumption is that anyone could be super-BG; carry yourself accordingly. But thinking you're better trained than some street thug is pride, which as we all know goeth before a fall.

 

[cleardiddion]

I agree that the criminal element often has been over simplified as being 'dumb' and 'inaccurate' and all that jazz.

But, when you hear stories about (this happened a while back near my hometown) a guy running from the cops and shooting himself in the head it does serve to remind that just like in real life there's all different levels in the criminal world.

 

[ironcode]

I have never been asked for ID at Walmart when buying ammo.

I've always been asked, but they only look at and enter the date of birth, to make sure I'm older than 21. That's only at Walmart, though. Regular gun shops have never checked my ID for ammo, as far as I remember...

 

[ChuckWalla]

People are stronger than we think. Many gang bangers take target practice. anyway lucky shots happen. Always get the odds on your side and always look to retreat until al avenues are closed. Then fight. It can help with any legalities.

 

[walksbyhimself]

"There is as much individuality among the lower orders, gentlemen, as there is among ourselves. Today we may go out and stumble upon a lion which is over-timid—he runs away from us. To-morrow we may meet his uncle or his twin brother, and our friends wonder why we do not return from the jungle. For myself, I always assume that a lion is ferocious, and so I am never caught off my guard."

-Tarzan, "Tarzan of the Apes", Edgar Rice Burroughs

This was Tarzan's reply to a group of men who were discussing lion hunting, after several of them expressed the opinion that lions were cowardly, and would likely run from a hunter.