What will be the straw that breaks the union's back?

[jimpeel]

At some point, some state, or states, will secede from the union once they have become fed up with the federal government. There are those who say that San Francisco has already seceded from California with their recent antics.

But on a serious side, there are several issues on the table today that the states are getting fed up with. The attack on religion, the gay marriage issue, the unwillingness of the USSC to address the Second Amendment, the recent Michigan Law School ruling by the USSC, the federalization of police forces, the terrorism color code that every time it bounces costs the states billions of dollars, T.H.E.P.A.T.R.I.O.T.A.C.T., and the ever increasing tax burden that has decreasing returns to the states -- among others too numerous to mention.

Texas has had a couple of recent rulings, such as the shoot down of their sodomy law, that have the folks there railing. Texas never gave up their right to secede and they have a fairly strong secessionist movement.

The one state that really and truly needs to secede, but will never have the guts, is California. Their monetary troubles would dry up overnight if they did. They have the fifth largest economy on the planet, the largest rail yard west of the Mississippi, seven international airports, three major ports, and 12-15% of the nation's population. If all of those gasoline, income, excise, etc taxes weren't being funneled to D.C. they would be solvent tomorrow with a AAA+ D&B credit and bond rating.

With the recent ruling in MA on the gay marriage issue -- and the attendant civil disobedience going on in SF; and the requirement that states, via the full faith and credit clause of the Constitution, must abide by and recognize gay marriages in other states -- I believe that several states will secede rather than recognize these marriages.

That, in my own personal opinion, is the issue that I believe will break the union.

What issue do the members here believe will be the one that will break the union?

 

[bjengs]

Gay marriage cause for disunion?

Gays have been getting married for ages. The issue is over State sanctification of marriage. My wife and I were married before God, we happened to also file with the County Clerk. That is the meaning of marriage, most people know this to be true, and a few creeps who demand handouts aren't going to change a single thing for the other 200 million of us.

A ruined economy (coming soon to a Homeland near you!) will do the trick. Going back to the Roman Empire, as goes a society's economy, so goes the society. Our dollar is worth little more than the paper it's printed on, and it's losing strength daily. The Fed is printing money as fast as it possibly can to no avail. Can you say "stagflation?"

 

[Billmanweh]

I live in Texas and I don't know anyone who cares about the sodomy laws. And I'm guessing that if you took a poll, not even 1% would care if the USSC will or won't hear 2nd amendment cases.

 

[Cool Hand Luke 22:36]

I wonder if Alaska might be the first to secede over the issues associated with a lack of control over its own natural resources and land.

 

[mrapathy2000]

alaska had a movement back in the 90's. havent heard much about it since some people died mysteriously

I would not be suprised if hawaii tried something.

 

[seeker_two]

I'm no supporter of the legalization of gay marriage---but I don't see why the federal & state government should have ANY power in deciding who should be recognized as married anyway. Marriage licenses are a throwback to the eugenics movements popular in the early 1900's. And private businesses should be allowed to decide who they wish to give benefits to & who they shouldn't.

What I do consider commendable is that a politician finally had the cojones to stand up against the state and federal governments and refuse to enforce a law that he & his constituency consider immoral. Who hasn't wished that their own local (or state) government would tell the feds to take a flying leap when it comes to enforcing anti-gun (AWB) and anti-liberty (Patriot Act) laws?

I hope this is the start of a trend that benefits us in the long run. Imagine, civil officials REFUSING to cooperate w/ unConstitutional laws...

 

[71Commander]

What I do consider commendable is that a politician finally had the cojones to stand up against the state and federal governments and refuse to enforce a law that he & his constituency consider immoral.

I believe a few states have done that in regards to medical marijuana.

Hey. It's a start.

 

[Joe Demko]

Be it ordained by the people of Texas in Convention assembled, That we acknowledge the supremacy of the Constitution of the United States, and the laws passed in pursuance thereof; and that an ordinance adopted by a former Convention of the people of Texas on the 1st day of February, A. D. 1861, entitled "An Ordinance to dissolve the Union between the State of Texas and the other States, united under the compact styled "Constitution of the United States of America," be and the same is hereby declared null and void; and the right heretofore claimed by the State of Texas to secede from the Union, is hereby distinctly renounced.

From the Texas state constitution. More here.

 

[dwain]

I wish Chicago would sedede from the rest of the State of Illinois. We would have a great place to live then. They could be in their own little world up there and not ruin ours.

 

[Joe Demko]

If, and it is a mighty big if, the union were to be dissolved (note the use of the subjunctive tense) it would likely be along regional economic lines. You'd probably end up with the CONUS fracturing into 3 to 5 smaller countries. Alaska and Hawaii might attempt to go it alone as independent nations for a while, but w/o the might of the US to defend them, they would in a relatively short amount of time become tributary states of other countries.

 

[ksnecktieman]

My opinion is that the only thing that will cause our nation to collapse is a financial crisis. And, I further believe it will be brought about by taxes. It is a fine thing to say "cold dead fingers" or a lot of other slogans backing different points of view. When MEN are walking the streets unemployed, and their families are hungry we will see action. We commonly say that the corporations that are taking our jobs overseas are our financial downfall. I think I disagree. That is a result, not a cause.

We pay taxes on everything, some estimates say half of our income goes to taxes, direct and indirect. Income, Property, Gasoline, Cigarettes, Communications, car registration and tags are a form of tax, building permits, any permit or license is a form of tax.

How many people are involved in making a loaf of bread? A seed store, a farmer, a tractor manufacturer, laborers on the farm, truckers to haul wheat, an elevator to store it, a trucker to haul it to the mill, the mill workers, truckers to the bakery, The bakers, the plastic manufacturers to make the wrapper, truckers again, and warehousemen to load and unload and finally the store to retail it to you, with stock boys, and cashiers.

Every one of these people want a decent place to live, and a decent car,
and a few luxuries to make life worth while. And EVERY one of them has to double the income needed to buy those things so he can support our government, with fifty percent of his income.

Anyone for a "tea party"? I almost am :banghead:

 

[Jonesy9]

not gonna happen

I don't see any major issue that will cause the breakup of the union. The states are too intertwined. The more conservative states in the interior could not survive without the governemnt subsidies that keep them going.

More importantly, the vast majority of the country doesn't care enough about gays, race, guns or any hot button issues to get off their buts and even hold a sign, let alone do anything else. They certainly will not do anything that would create immediate hardship or interupt their standard of living for a long term goal. Hell, we can't even get our politicians to look beyond the next election and do anything long term as it is.

Would an economic disaster cause seccesion? If we look back to the 30's the Depression brought many Americans together.

While the dollar is taking a beating under Bush, hitting an all time low against the pound last week at almost 2 to 1 and expected to hit a record low against the euro this week, it will swing back once a new admin comes in and fixes the mistakes and reduces the deficiets of the last few years.

Activists tend to forget that they are on the fringe. Hell, most of us know the majority of shooters at our clubs are apathetic about RKBA. The opinions represented in our clicks and websites are not indicative of the rest of the population. What are our numbers anyway? Like maybe one tenth of one percent of the pop. if we're lucky?


Funny that you would think that gay marriage would cause states to secede.

I completely disagree but do find it funny that conservatives and people who advocate strict constructionism choose to act like the liberals they have vilified for years and try to pick and choose which parts of the Constitution they want to obey. Hypocracy and bigotry know no bounds.

But, the country went through a much bigger upheaval when the laws against interracial marriage were struck down and survived that. The world hasn't ended, the country is still here and can anyone say that the country is worse off since I can marry a black girl?

We survived the aboloishing of miscegenation laws.

We survived the granting of Constitutional rights to citizens with extra melanin in their skin (although we did have to kick a few states in the butt to get them to accept the Constitution on that one).

Gay marriage is a sham, an election year wedge issue designed to motivate voters emotionally instead of rationally.

Gay marriage recognized by the state won't change my religions definition. Nor will the state be able to intervene in my sacraments.

Witeness the tiny amount of demostraters on both sides. Compare that to the Civil Rights era or the interracila marriage law battles.

I just don't see it being a big issue.

 

[Jonesy9]

BTW

from what I hear from a lawyer friend in Austin, it's a damn good thing for the Governor that the sodomy laws have been repealed

what's with you guys and male cheerleaders anyway?

 

[dischord]

I would not be suprised if hawaii tried something.

Yep.

http://www.hawaii-nation.org/

http://www.freehawaii.org/

http://www.nativevillage.org/Messages from the People/Hawaii Announces Secession.htm

 

[MrAcheson]

I don't see why the federal & state government should have ANY power in deciding who should be recognized as married anyway. Marriage licenses are a throwback to the eugenics movements popular in the early 1900's.

Civil marriages was a major breakthrough that developed out of the inter-religious strife of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. I could be wrong but we probably inherited it from the British via Common Law. I am Baptist. My girlfriend, who will likely become my wife when she finishes grad school, is a Reform Jew. Neither my pastor nor her rabbi will marry us. However a Justice of the Peace will in a civilly recognized ceremony. Civil marriage has nothing to do with eugenics and everything to do with smoothing over societal inter-religious and inter-cultural tensions.

 

[stevelyn]

If it takes gay marriage to split the union we are in serious trouble. Folks need to quit trying to tell others how to live their lives. No one here has to answer for another's lifestyle.
As for the Alaska thing, it's still simmering under the surface.

 

[BerettaNut92]

I doubt gay marriage will be the one that does it. I'm leaning on something really inane like coffee going up to $8 per cup

 

[Jonesy9]

Civil marriages was a major breakthrough that developed out of the inter-religious strife of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. I could be wrong but we probably inherited it from the British via Common Law. I am Baptist. My girlfriend, who will likely become my wife when she finishes grad school, is a Reform Jew. Neither my pastor nor her rabbi will marry us. However a Justice of the Peace will in a civilly recognized ceremony. Civil marriage has nothing to do with eugenics and everything to do with smoothing over societal inter-religious and inter-cultural tensions.

an interesting aside- the first marriages in the new world, conducted in Plymouth Colony, now Massachusetts, were civil marriages for the first 4 years until a Chaplin arrived to our shores.

 

[Iain]

the first marriages in the new world, conducted in Plymouth Colony, now Massachusetts, were civil marriages for the first 4 years until a Chaplin arrived to our shores.

So you can blame Charlie's ancestors then?

From an outsiders point of view - I don't see it. I appreciate there are internal tensions, greater ones than what we get here due to I guess to a much larger geographic area and the nature of it being a union of states. However, I can think of several countries that are more likely to break in to civil war, seems many of these are based on crude ethnic lines. Not necessarily racial lines, more the desire of one group not to be under the same national banner as another group that they despise. When that happens in the US on a large enough scale you will know all about it.

If I were News Director at the BBC or ITN and decided to do a piece about whether or not the US is likely to break in to civil war I expect my correspondent would have a hard time filling my brief. I guess he would be able to get interviews with tin-foil hatters on one end of the spectrum, in the middle quite a few that here and there resent federal interference quite rightfully, and many that would think he was nuts.

 

[Sean Smith]

With the recent ruling in MA on the gay marriage issue -- and the attendant civil disobedience going on in SF; and the requirement that states, via the full faith and credit clause of the Constitution, must abide by and recognize gay marriages in other states -- I believe that several states will secede rather than recognize these marriages.

That, in my own personal opinion, is the issue that I believe will break the union.

You've got it all figured out, gay people acting silly in San Fran is going to destroy America.

 

[Smoke]

I agree it will be a financial issue.

More likely than the secession is simply the bankrupting of a country by more entitlements ans socialists programs. If we're broke we can't defend our borders. Can anyone say "Dictatorship?"

Smoke

 

[hammer4nc]

What ksnecktieman said. Financial insolvency looming on the horizon. Major (already shaky) financial systems falling like dominoes; will cause the mainstream to question whether a "new" organization will be better than the current one.

Very hard to predict the exact sequence of events; perhaps the downfall of the social security system (already insolvent...kept alive through accounting shenanigans now) when the baby boom retires, will propagate intolerable tax increases? Massive individual bankruptcy owing to credit card debt? Cost of govt. healthcare (promised by the next Demo administration)? An auto industry with millions of new cars they can't give away? Add your own scenario.

Right now, the fedgov enforces many mandates by withholding "federal funds" to the states. Withholding highway funds is most popular. Well, thats a two way street, when more and more people decide to "withhold" their own contribution before sending it to DC, as in mass non-compliance with the income tax system.

In times like this, wars are more likely. Even "civil" ones...which could result in some new boundaries being drawn.

The gay marriage thing is not even a blip on the radar screen.

 

[fix]

Breaks tha back or causes secession?

I don't think anything will happen to cause secession, short of a declaration of martial law. But there will be a Mexican Intifada in the SW at some point in the next 30 years and that will break the back of the union.

 

[dischord]

an interesting aside- the first marriages in the new world, conducted in Plymouth Colony, now Massachusetts, were civil marriages for the first 4 years until a Chaplin arrived to our shores.

There were marriages performed down here in Virginia for the few decades prior to the Massachusetts settlement (not to mention the in the Spanish colonies before that, including probably in St Augastine, Florida).

 

[Jonesy9]

please, we all know the fable of Jamestown is just for tourists