What will be the straw that breaks the union's back?

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I don't see any major issue that will cause the breakup of the union


Overpopulation and greed +time will get us. Like it or not humans always
find a way to screw up a good thing.:banghead:
 
The Preservation of Marriage Act (1996?) ensured that the numerous States do not have to recognize non-traditional marriages performed on other States.

I think two things that will strain the Union is our 30 trillion dollars in public debt, much of which is not currently financed. And, the continuing and rampant, uncontrolled illegal immigration against which the Federal government intentionally only feebly fights, sometimes even ignoring its own laws against such things as employer hiring sanctions.
 
This was taken from the nov/dec issue of American handgunner, written by
Roy Huntington and for me sums up our problems.(are the “good†guys actually becoming slowly extinct?)

Don’t Let The “Idea†of America Die

We are a burley, larger-then life, muscle-bound country. America is populated with the off-spring of adventures and the fearless people who took a leap of faith into the chasm of uncertainty- to come here build a new life. These were not ordinary people, content to live under the thumbs of European nobility but people who, somehow, knew that liberty, equality and economics success could be theirs- if they had the will. Those relentlessly action-oriented people, from all walks of life, left their peasantry behind and planted firm feet on our soil. This had never happened before in history of the world.
A true story: In the late 1800s an English Lord was traveling in the west. He came to a dirty ranch hand mending a fence and inquired as to the “where-abouts of your master’s house?â€The hand paused, looking up and said, “That man hasn’t been born yet.†Which, quite simply, epitomizes the concept of America. With their own wits and muscle, our ancestors made their way here, succeeded, failed, died, lived, raised families and fought for what they believed in. And did not believe in royalty-or in servitude.
How then, have we, who have the blood of these hardened survivors coursing through our veins, gotten so whiny and finger-pointy? What happened to the stoic fellows who simply took it on the chin, did what was right and kept their complaining to a minimum? Where are the prairie farmer’s wives who buried their own children “out back†and the lone soldier who fought against sure death in the deserts of Arizona? Why do we celebrate the mediocre? The whiners? The people who complain the loudest? Why do we pay attention to those who mock us from the very countries our ancestors fled from? Here we stand, the richest, most powerful country in the history of the world-and yet, we doubt ourselves and feel guilty about our successes. We pay a price to be where we are, and that price is the spotlight. People will shout, throw rocks, shoot guns at us and want what we have because they didn’t have the wherewithal to manage it themselves. It’s okay to be right. It’s ok to be strong. It’s ok to be decisive and it’s ok to say, “That’s wrong. Stop it now.†In short, it’s ok to be American. Yet we are becoming a nation of “middleroaders,†of hesitation in the face of decision-making-nation of fearful people who hide in their SUVs and wait for someone else to “do something†about it.
It gets worse. What’s with the spate of TV shows and movies in which the “hero†almost invariably ends-up being somehow “dirty†(on the take, murderer-or worse) continues. Why is it bad to be good? How come our definition of “hero†gotten so muddled? Is a basketball star who cheats on his wife, a president who lies, a Senator who steals or a pop star who rants, worthy of attention-other than as a focus of our own solid indignation? Why can’t there be a good guy who is truly good- and a bad guy who is, just as clearly, bad? Why must there always be some middle ground, some compromise? “Oh, he’s a sort of good guy, but not always.†Why are we, as a nation, suddenly so uneasy with the concept of “this is clearly right and this is clearly wrong? “ Why are we so often hesitant to stand up and simply say. “That, right there, is wrong, and we won’t stand for itâ€- and then back our play. Which got me to thinking about.
America in general. Has Darwin’s theory of natural selection been in effect, and are the “good†guys actually becoming slowly extinct? Is the blood-line of that core-group of genetically-tough adventurers who took their lives into their own hands in the early years of this great country becoming-diluted? Simply “coming to America†these days does not make you an American. Now, a plane ticket and a bit of paperwork can get you to here. Then what? And, just as importantly, just because your born here, unless you participate in what it is to be an American, unless you seize opportunity and become a part of our national culture, what is America dies a little bit.
While the concept of the “melting pot†was popular, and the “celebrate diversity†trend a catchy phrase- I think the reality is somewhere in-between. A melting pot denotes a monochromatic sea of same ideas, while the concept of “separate but together†that diversity denotes-seems to simply a jumbled mess of differing ideas. Neither concept is what makes America what it is. Indeed, how much diversity can we stand and still maintain our cohesiveness as a nation?
If to be an American, is to do what comes most naturally to be the kind of person initially attracted to this great county-then are we still trying? That sense of savvy Yankee independence, combined with a ready-willingness to embrace the concept of the need to do things for the common good is, perhaps, the backbone of what is America.
And, just perhaps, it’s this vibrant exciting arena of commonality of direction that makes up this concept-this mixing of spirit, history, personality and attention to a common good-this gives life to America. It’s her people and how they think, both independently and collectively, that’s what is important. It’s what brought us here and, if it dies, will take us with it. We need to stand firm in our heritage, in what made this astounding experiment called America a success, and to not lose sight of where we came from.
It’s okay to be right, it’s okay to be strong and it’s okay to be united for a common good. Stop whining, stop celebrating the mundane, the offensive, the thieves, liars and relieve us from having to be so quite so heroic ourselves- and that to, is yet another step down that slippery road to nothingness. And what is a tragedy it would be if this noble experiment we are part of-should ultimately fail.
 
While the dollar is taking a beating under Bush, hitting an all time low against the pound last week at almost 2 to 1 and expected to hit a record low against the euro this week, it will swing back once a new admin comes in and fixes the mistakes and reduces the deficiets of the last few years.

hmm...I seem to recall it being $2.80 to the pound when I moved here in 1978. And it was over $3:1 during Ikenhower, that democratic bastion. To which "all time low" are you referring? Or is this another "right wing biased press" illusion?


I hope you don't think John "papercuts are war wounds, too" Kerry is going to "Fix" anything, except that pesky RKBA if he gets in. You might recall he was in nice and tight with Hanoi Jane and the American Communist Party until he found a job marrying and plundering rich heiresses.
 
When I was in England in the spring of 1989, the pound was around $1.59 official exchange rate. Maybe it has been lower.
 
The Preservation of Marriage Act (1996?) ensured that the numerous States do not have to recognize non-traditional marriages performed on other States.

Oh, goody. A perfect precedent to not accept CCWs from other states, either.:rolleyes:

I'm increasingly convinced that anyone who imagines that a restrictive, prior-restraint law against anything is the real problem.

If we had half the brains we imagine, we'd team UP with the gay activists. "You want marriages recognized interstate, we want CCW recognized. You help us, we'll help you." They have a LOT of PR outlets, and we have a few of our own. Together, we could cram the 14th Amendment down CA and MA's throat for us, and down TX and AL's for them.

Instead, we have every little faction trying to screw the others over (no pun intended) for their own little corner they're never going to get.

If your morals or your religion are getting in the way of your politics, you're not helping anyone. We don't have civil rights so we can be politically correct. We have civil rights so we can be different and offensive.
 
To address the original question:

I think we can look to Arizona for a clue. They already have a measure in their legislature (there were news stories about it) to reserve the right to secede if the federal government does any one of three things:

1. Declares martial law.
2. Suspends the U.S. Constitution
3. Attempts to confiscate firearms.

I think secession is possible if any of these events occur:

1. Another terrorist attack on the U.S. occurs and it's worse than 911. In response, the feds declare martial law and suspend the Constitution.

2. Bush's immigrant amnesty proposal becomes reality and the feds continue to do nothing much to help the southwestern states defend their borders (there have already been gunfights between the Border Patrol and Mexican soldiers on our soil.)

3. The dollar continues to fall, then collapses and China and Japan call in their debts.

4. The feds are foolish enough to try to disarm all of America (I see this as very unlikely--they have to know the western and southern states would rebel.)

5. The price of oil rises so much (peak oil) that many Americans can't afford food (obesity epidemic disappears rapidly), and the government clamps down with some heavy-handed police-state tactics.

You could probably also argue for the effects of increasing unemployment as more American jobs are 'off-shored.'

Let's keep our chins up and our powder dry. :)
 
Yay MadMike!

If we had half the brains we imagine, we'd team UP with the gay activists. "You want marriages recognized interstate, we want CCW recognized. You help us, we'll help you." They have a LOT of PR outlets, and we have a few of our own. Together, we could cram the 14th Amendment down CA and MA's throat for us, and down TX and AL's for them.

Instead, we have every little faction trying to screw the others over (no pun intended) for their own little corner they're never going to get.

If your morals or your religion are getting in the way of your politics, you're not helping anyone. We don't have civil rights so we can be politically correct. We have civil rights so we can be different and offensive.

Exactly what I was driving at in the "How much DO you want to keep your guns?" thread. You spelled it out brilliantly. Matter of fact...pardon me while I blatantly steal your line!
 
unlikely on the gun collection after big attack and marshal law. would spawn big mess. its like shooting yourself in the foot. maybe if way left dems were in office.

china and japan call in debt? HA. japan would get missles to keep china at bay and china would get a big delay and lack of responces. guess we could always sell them taiwan too.

dollar falls invest in gold or keep your money away from banks and investors.

imigrant policy I disagree with and think we should get troops or state governed militia or national guard to cover. would be organized militia first unless it became a real problem. though BP would probably be pissed they are out of a job or we could enhance BP with money and equipment so they can do theyre job easier.

if we distance are selves from china this country would be in better shape specially if trade went belly up though we may be at war then. cheap goods are nice but it puts americans out of work when companies move overseas to make more money cause people are not willing to pay high price for american goods. I also hate inflation and price dictation.

want a free book. www.terrorism.com a good website and under the documents section->non us government->china is a book in pdf form translated from chinese called Unrestricted Warfare. unrestricted warfare pdf dl link needs adobe acrobat reader or equivalent that reads .pdf files. its more than 100 pages though not a huge dl accept maybe 56kers 400KB file

war anymore is more than guns,rockets,cannons and soldiers dont all wear camoflage. economic warfare is being waged daily and you as a consumer have choices to make. everytime you go to walmart do you help USA or do you help the other?
 
And getting back to the original topic...

IANAEconomist or political scientist or financial whiz. I'm just a truck driver with a little bit of common sense.

Fifty cents minus one dollar = negative fifty cents. If anyone can show me how that statement is false, spit it out.

The National Debt of the USA is over Seven Trillion Dollars at last count.

Seven.

Trillion.

Dollars.

:what:

I can't even begin to wrap my brain around that concept. Can you? If I've figured it right, even at one percent interest per year, that equates to $2217 per second--in interest alone.

Our gov seems to be under the same false impression that many of our citizens are...that they can just spend and spend forever without consequence. But what I've learned is this: You cannot live forever on credit. Sooner or later, people are going to want their money. So what do you think will happen to the USA, and the rest of the world, when Uncle Sam finally has to admit he's bankrupt? I think the resulting (worldwide) depression will make the '30s look like another dot-com boom.

I believe we're going to have one more blast of prosperity, if we're lucky. And then, we've had it. A New Dark Age, TEOTWAWKI, Civilization In Ruins, etc. etc. I hope I'm wrong. But with socialism spreading across the civilized world like a cancer and the USA spending itself into the poorhouse, something's got to give. I just hope we find a way out of this mess before it all hits the fan.

My answer? Financial collapse...and the State of the Union will be a footnote to our worries.

Man, this tinfoil really itches....!!:p
 
(attaches tin foil hat)

:D Well, until I hear a more likely theory, I'll go with John Titor's description:

The year 2008 was a general date by which time everyone will realize the world they thought they were living in was over. The civil war in the United States will start in 2004. I would describe it as having a Waco type event every month that steadily gets worse. The conflict will consume everyone in the US by 2012 and end in 2015 with a very short WWIII.

(secures tin foil hat)
 
In a sense, the South is still recovering from the last time this was tried. People in my family that went through those bad times were still alive when my mother was a kid. I've heard the stories. You do not want to go through that.

Unfortunately,when we hit the steep downhill section of the curve on the other side of global peak oil production it won't matter whether the union is together or not.

No, I'm not wearing my tinfoil. See also:

http://www.americanassembler.com/issues/peak_oil/peak_oil.html
http://dieoff.org/page116.htm
 
Personally, I havent a clue what will cause states to seceede. However, I do know it wont be Gay Rights, Gun Rights, or any other rights, unless all of them are revoked in one penstroke.


Hawaii couldnt seceede, its like my big toe seceeding from my body. Where will it get its blood and oxygen? The only thing it grows is a toenail.:rolleyes: Hawaii only has sugarcane and pineapples as staple crops. The state cant support itself. Hell, Arkansas can barely support itself. But, if we quickly annex all of hte businesses and money (Wallyworld, Tyson, JB Hunt, etc etc) then we may have a bargaining chip...:evil:
 
Acknowledgement of Breakdown...

won't be about gay marriage.

This is a SYMPTOM, not a cause.

The actual underlying disease is that the wall separating the powers of government is dissolving before our eyes, too many People have largely abdicated from the process, the Bill of Rights has ceased to be an effective and certain restraint on the powers of government, and some root principles of justice, such as jury trial, double jeapardy, and the preeminence of individual prerogative are down the tubes.

There are an ENORMOUS number of huge structural, financial, and Constitutional issues facing us.

Our Constitution has been around long enough that unprincipled people have learned how to very effectively "game the system", and the "hardwiring" have been completely circumvented.

Although I'd like to put more thought into it to make a definitive list, let me rip out a quick one, just to get the point into peoples heads:


-The Judiciary:
-Is legislating from the bench
- Is colluding re: jury nullification
-Regularly fails to uphold 1A..10A

-The Executive:
- wields whatever emergency powers he can get away with.

-The legislature:
-spends maniacally
-regularly ignores the Bill of Rights


Financially, the federal government is something like 40% of GDP, up from 12% in the early part of the 20th century, and of that, 60% is social spending. Social Security is anything but.

It's a credit to our own levelheadedness as Americans that the whole thing hasn't flown apart at the seams, but like they say, past performance is no guarantee.
 
posted by mrapathy2000
I would not be suprised if hawaii tried something.

LOL the sheeple here have to import toilet paper, fer cryin out loud. We have but one resource, tourism. we can't grow our own food, supply our own building material, hell we don't even have our own defense.

If hawaii seceded, we'd be sitting ducks.

We had a vote in the '98 election to defend traditional marriage. Overwhelmingly yes (nearly 70%, as I recall). The special interest wanks STILL get preferential treatment, as our leg is overbearingly leftist.

Pretty much a case of 'don't come here' if you value yer freedom. Politicians here aspire to model this place after Kali.
 
Moparmike

Hawaii couldnt seceede, its like my big toe seceeding from my body. Where will it get its blood and oxygen? The only thing it grows is a toenail. Hawaii only has sugarcane and pineapples as staple crops.
Hawaii did just fine before they joined the union.

Although you did bring up the sugar and pineapple crops you failed to mention their ace-high, number one cash crop -- tourists.

Tourism has always been the number one staple there even before their entry into the union; and even if no Americans went there ever again after they secede, the Japanese and Europe would more than make up for that loss.

Ya just don't hear about many tours to Midway, The Solomons, and Iwo Jima. Not a lot of hotels there. Not a lot of snow skiing either, like there is in Hawaii.

Yep, there's only one mid-Pacific destination island group and Hawaii is it.
 
Back to the original question:
The United States, up to the mid 1800's was a agricultural country. The manufacturing age started in the mid 1800's, and led to greater prosperity for the average man, and he could expect his children to do AT LEAST as well as he did. By the 1950's, the factory worker could live a pretty good life, with one bread winner, and the wife staying home to raise the kids. The country was the most aflfuent country in the world, the people had the highest standard of living the world has ever seen. Starting in the 1970's, the one world order idea started making it's rounds leading to treaties such as NAFTA and Ghat. Our tariffs were lowered or dropped, and the Federal Govt had to raise taxes on the workers to cover the shortfall. Outsourcing of labor started, led by international corporations such as General Electric. The manufacturing jobs started to flow overseas to countries with a cheap labor pool. The manufacturing era for the United States started to die. But that was ok, because the large corporations were making money. Besides, the computer age was looming just over the horizon. Well, the computer age started in the early to mid 80's and lasted for about 20 years. The internet allowed outsourcing to strike even deeper and quicker in the computer age since all you need is global communications to move data, no ships and trucks to move a product. There is no upcoming bright new era that I can see right now, just the McDonald's era.
When people finally realize what is in store for them, the lowering of our standard of living to the same as third world countries, I think there will be a revolt.
We have in, 30 years, taken every advantage, earned by the fruits of our parents labor and industry, and throwen them out the window. We have given our future away. We perfected manufacturing. We learned how th farm the land so well that we now feed the world, on less land using less labor than could have been ever dreamed of. We invented the computer, and made it feasible for the average man to own one or more. We invented the internet.
We also started the United Nations, where we give it all away.
I think of my sons, still in school, wondering what to advise them to study, all I can come up with is math, since they will need to be able to do those quick calculations on the street corners dealing dope. I thank the heavens that I don't have a daughter.

Jack
 
Exactly. In the case of Hawaii, they provided for themselves just fine and dandy. everyone knew their place, their role and the people were content. Of course there were maybe 10 of 15 thousand people.

dischord posted links from the hawaii sovreignty crowd. the percentage of pure hawaiians here is probably relative to the percentage of gays nationwide.

I don't want to live in a grass hut, worship a mess of gods or eat fish and poi all day. We are lucky that it was the US that took us under it's wing and not the USSR, Japan or some other restrictive nation. 1.2 million people living in a state a fraction of the size of RI simply cannot provide the american dream. Yet we live it. And we still sit here like sheep while the socialists run amok promising yet another entitlement if we just swallow it and side with them.

Puh-leeze. One look at all the federal money-grabbing from our congressmen indicates that we ain't going nowhere... and we are in a rush, to boot.
 
Mike, no we dont. whatsmore, we could provide for ALL our people exactly nothing (except maybe sunshine :) ). We are so 'in the hole' now that even if we were allegianced to the chinese, we couldn't get out of it.
 
Moparmike.....

"Well, ok. I suppose you could eat the tourists, but you have to cook them right or else they are all tough and stringy."
************************************************************

After the burgeoning Maori population of NEw Zealand exterminated the moa, the protein of captured enemies became a welcome addition to the pot. :D

What about it, joonya187?

That'd be a good way to get that population back down to sustainable levels.;)
 
There is no upcoming bright new era that I can see right now, just the McDonald's era.

You've nailed it Jackc., We export jobs to third world and import poorly
educated third world people at some point the ship will sink. The rich
don't care because they feel they have a lifeboat,"money". :(
 
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