Will President Trump speaking at the NRA convention start movement on HPA and NCR?

[ATLDave]

No. Unless the Senate nukes the legislative* filibuster (which you do NOT want!!), the Democrats can/will filibuster the HPA unless it's part of some broader deal.

Democrats are now following the GOP's playbook from the last 8 years of opposing everything the majority party wants unless bought off or otherwise politically compelled to cave. With Trump's approval rating in strongly-negative territory, no speech he gives is going to change that dynamic.

* I note an assertion above that, because the NFA involves tax stamps, removal of silencers from the NFA might be treated as a tax measure, and therefore might be able to dodge the legislative filibuster through the budget reconciliation process. I don't know enough to opine on whether that is accurate or realistic. But that's an interesting notion.

Of course, that could be a double-edged sword. If silencers can be removed from the NFA by reconciliation with a GOP majority, then perhaps semi-automatic firearms could be added to the NFA by reconciliation with a Democrat majority.

 

[RPRNY]

No. Unless the Senate nukes the legislative* filibuster (which you do NOT want!!), the Democrats can/will filibuster the HPA unless it's part of some broader deal.

Democrats are now following the GOP's playbook from the last 8 years of opposing everything the majority party wants unless bought off or otherwise politically compelled to cave. With Trump's approval rating in strongly-negative territory, no speech he gives is going to change that dynamic.

* I note an assertion above that, because the NFA involves tax stamps, removal of silencers from the NFA might be treated as a tax measure, and therefore might be able to dodge the legislative filibuster through the budget reconciliation process. I don't know enough to opine on whether that is accurate or realistic. But that's an interesting notion.

Of course, that would be a double-edged sword. If silencers can be removed from the NFA by reconciliation with a GOP majority, then semi-automatic firearms could be added to the NFA by reconciliation with a Democrat majority.

The world of parliamentary order is bizarre to say the least. And the rules about germane legislation even more so.

The tax stamps for silencers are an existing revenue measure in law. Budget reconciliation allows revenue measures to be reconciled, or balanced, via a 51 vote process in the Senate. The stamp revenue on silencers is small beans and easily addressed in reconciliation. However, legislative counsel would have to determine whether the stamp revenue is subject to reconciliation as there are quite arcane rules about what is subject to and what is reserved from reconciliation. It should be, but that doesn't mean it absolutely is.

Semi-auto rifles are not subject to a specific tax (all firearms and ammo are subject to Pittman-Robertson excise taxes). Therefore, they cannot be addressed as a revenue measure via budget reconciliation. Any attempt to tax or regulate semi-auto rifles would have to be done in regular order, subject to the "legislative filibuster" that you reference and that one would want to keep.

 

[ATLDave]

Fascinating, RPRNY. Thanks for the insight.

 

[GEM]

No - it will be a bloviating, fear the return of Hillary or similar candidate fund raiser. The GOP has its own action agenda and sorry to say giving something to the gun nuts isn't on it. We are just used for votes and motivated by scaring us. As pointed out, the Senate votes aren't there for easy passage.

Anyway, if all the wonderful progun bills passed and the SCOTUS led us into Constitutional gun heaven, the NRA would bleed members. All that would be left would be a couple of duck hunters. Their selling point is the RKBA for the getting the large membership.

Remember that GWB said he would sign a renewal of the AWB if it got to him. Romney said he supported the AWB as Bush did. Now, MItt changed a bit - that conversion is in the same vein as Hillary ditching the TPP when Bernie and Donald nail her on it.

 

[Crawdad1]

Give the Republicans credit. They have stopped dead in its tracks many federal gun bills proposed by the Democrats over the years that would have really put a burden on gun owners and gun ownership. Except for packing the federal courts with pro gun judges there isn't a lot they can do except stop the Democrats from further federal regulations.

But, on the bright side, federal courts can have a big impact on state regulation also. You have President Trump in there for eight years the 9th circuit might not be so liberal after he's done.

 

[stoky]

The only thing I'll give the republicrats credit for is lip service being marginally better than the "alternative" on RKBA
What we really need is a better alternative.
That, and the ability to perceive the need for gubmint constraint outside the delusional left/right/liberal/conservative dichotomy.
I agree that an Originalist SCOTUS would be a good thing. I just hope it doesn't get co-opted like the POTUS "change" was.

 

[Crawdad1]

I don't think you realize how many bills proposed by the Democrats that they stopped that could have put a real burden on gun ownership across the country. That is the system of so many checks and balances as everything moves slowly or doesn't move at all.

 

[stoky]

Probably the best we dare hope for regarding 2A.
YEA gridlock!

 

[Elkins45]

I'm not convinced that national reciprocity is a good idea. It'd be a short step from that to various limits and conditions that the Feds already do way too much of, gun-wise. I'd give quite a cheer for freely available suppressors, though.

I think national reciprocity is a great idea, but not if imposed by the federal government through legislation. Much better if agreed to as was drivers license reciprocity.

Best would be imposed by the Justice Department as a civil rights action: denying CCW to any citizen is a violation of 2A and therefore cannot stand. Hey, a boy can dream...

 

[barnbwt]

So about that speech and it kicking off movement on the HPA...


...yeah.

 

[CapnMac]

The toughest hurdle HPA would have is Dem leadership--I'm pretty sure there are 8-9 D's who are either pro-gun (or have to be, politically) are in the Senate. But, their "masters" would have to to let them vote.

 

[CoalTrain49]

Trumps appearance at the NRA convention was just a campaign stop. I know, the election is over but Trump is still campaigning. If he was serious about 2A he would have rescinded the executive orders by Obama to restrict imports, which he hasn't. And where are all of those 1911's that were supposed to go to the CMP? Still waiting for the Secretary of the Army to release them. I thought the SOA worked for Trump. Words.