While I have been monitoring and tracking reloading component availability and price trends over several cycles the past 30 years, this shortage cycle definitely has shown delayed rebound from the bottom and I feel primer prices falling will take a little longer this time around.
Why the delay in "return to normal"?
Well, around 100 million guns were sold the past decade and in recent years, to new gun owners. And all these new guns, especially new gun owners will need ammunition to shoot in these guns. Market price of anything is dictated by supply and demand ... pure and simple. And 100 million guns sold with likely millions of new gun owners ... That is A LOT OF DEMAND that existing supply infrastructure simply won't be able to support ... And that's why we have seen a protracted delay in "return to normal".
But I am starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
How?
In the "Affordable 22LR ..." thread, we have already broken below the $40/500 ceiling and approached low $34/500 price point. While rest of 22LR pricing has been hovering around $40-$50/500, I am slowly seeing a gradual movement down which is what happened during the 2017-2019 rebound where price of 22LR went from $40/500 all the way down to below $20/500 to $16/500 -
https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...t-shipped-pricing.902560/page-4#post-12285264
I am reluctant to believe we would return back to below $20/500 for 22LR but I am thinking we may see below $30/500 this time around.
So from my perspective, I think we may go below current pricing before we see the pricing of "new normal" so I would suggest keeping a close eye on supply/inventory/pricing before really stocking up big time.
Believe me, if I think we hit the bottom and prices are heading back up, you will certainly see me posting, "BUY, BUY, BUY!!!" just like 2019.