Alarmist AP article on guns very alarming!

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cougfan

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http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ijpM_MlZkqOYXtwdulL1yxIXolXwD9IFVN7O2


Report: 10 states sell half of imported crime guns
(AP) – 4 hours ago

WASHINGTON — Nearly half of the guns that crossed state lines and were used in crimes in 2009 were sold in just 10 states, according to a report being released Monday by a mayors' group.
Those states accounted for nearly 21,000 guns connected to crimes in other states, said the survey by Mayors Against Illegal Guns, an association of more than 500 mayors led by New York's Michael Bloomberg and Boston's Thomas Menino.
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives traced more than 145,000 guns used in crimes in 2009 and found that more than 43,000 of those weapons were sold in other states.
Forty-nine percent of those guns were sold in Georgia, Florida, Virginia, Texas, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, California or Arizona.
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I read this article, and being an accountant and a real stickler for statistics, I fired up Excel and google and found a wikipedia entry with some easy to use population statistics*. This article says that slightly less than 30% of guns used in crimes were originally purchased in a state other than the one in which they were used and presumably recovered in connection with a crime. So 43,000 out of 145,000 "crime guns" were imported. Shockingly nearly half (48.8%, generously since the article rounded up a couple of times) of those 43,000 imported "crime guns" came from just 10 states. Those 10 states, their populations estimated in 2009 by the US Census Bureau, make up 46.4% of our nations populace. This hardly seems like any sort of major gun running pipeline like the article makes it out to be. People move, guns are stolen and people commit crimes. The only states that are at the top in terms population numbers yet not on the list of top "crime gun" exporters are New York and Illinois, both of which seem to be infamous for higher instances of gun crime, both of which have hugely restrictive gun laws and both of which most likely had a hand in issuing this press release disguised as news.

Check out http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/html/home/home.shtml to see the report in its original context and see if your city's mayor is against illegal guns (no brainer, no one wants more gun crime). I just hope paying a think tank a bunch of money to fiddle with FBI statistics isn't going to change public opinion. Hopefully your mayor didn't chip in your $ for this groundbreaking report.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
 
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This hardly seems like any sort of major gun running pipeline like the article makes it out to be. People move, guns are stolen and people commit crimes. The only states that are at the top in terms population numbers yet not on the list of top "crime gun" exporters are New York and Illinois, both of which seem to be infamous for higher instances of gun crime, both of which have hugely restrictive gun laws and both of which most likely had a hand in issuing this press release disguised as news.
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And hardly surprising as well, when concidering the source.
 
The New York Times took this article and ran with it. See their take here http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/us/politics/27guns.html.

It seems like the state of New York (and NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who heads the alliance of mayors against illegal guns and most likely paid for this statistical squaredance) should just erect borders and search everyone coming in, or greatly increase the penalties faced by New York residents for buying guns they can't legally own and committing crimes with them. But hey if I had a billion dollars I would try to push my political agenda every way I could too, I just hope more mayors look past the title of this organization and see what it really is into; which is a public relations campaign to make stricter gun laws nationwide. Why can't we all just agree that using a gun to commit a crime (ie. robbery, murder; not owning a handgun) should cost you the hand you used to harm society?
 
Statistics can be and are used to prove just about anything.

Those mayors probably went through land area, population, ethnic groups, gender and religious affiliations until they hit upon something that could be construed to "prove" their point.
 
50% of 'crime guns' come from just 10 states? I'd be willing to bet that 50% of those same 'crime guns' were used in just 2 states: New York and Illinois. Of course, that couldn't possibly indicate that those two states have a problem; naturally, it's easier to blame your trouble on the other guy.

"All of our criminals are really well behaved, honest. If other states would just stop selling them guns, I'm sure they'd see the error of their ways and go on to become healthy, productive members of society."

R
 
nice work by COUGFAN delving into the numbers. That's how we best disprove these myths...
 
All of our criminals are really well behaved, honest. If other states would just stop selling them guns, I'm sure they'd see the error of their ways and go on to become healthy, productive members of society.
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I LOL'ed. Well played sir.
 
Remember the "backward masking" crisis in the 1980s, trumpeted by hysterical televangelists? This is "backward masking" for anti-gunners. It will amount to as much.

They're going to keep flailing and lashing out, but like Holocaust deniers, they've permanently marginalized themselves with their dishonesty and more importantly, the consistent failure of EVERY dire prediction of "blood in the streets".
 
Good work cougfan!

I have an interview with a local Fox News affiliate this morning concerning this very report and GCO's take on it. I will definately make sure to point out the info you have brought to light.

Thanks!
 
Good work crunching the numbers.

This is the same old song and dance. Just as the corrupt and essentially non-functional Mexican government blames US gun laws for its problems, the corrupt mayors the urban wastes blame their problems on gun laws of other states.
 
I, for one, am shocked the group is not in favor of amnesty for these "illegal guns". They are just doing the jobs that legal guns don't or won't do.
 
Mayors against illegal guns and Bloomberg is all you have to know---to where a flawed cooked up piece is going to lead you by the nose.

Move along---nothing to see here.
 
If you analyze the statistics to read "At one time during their lifetime, 21 070 (that is 49% of the 43,000 number listed above) guns from 10 of some our heavily populated states (averaging about 2107 apiece for those 10 states) ended up in crimes in other states than they were originally sold in." I wonder how many were LEGALLY moved from one state to another, along with the original or subsequent owners. I wonder how many were STOLEN in one state and illegally brought to another (should my state of Ohio be punished if crooks from NYC come here and burglarize guns for sale on NYC streets? I think not!). If my math is correct, 2107 guns for each of the averaged 10 states mentioned is about 1.5% of the total guns used in crimes. What is the issue? That 10 populated states, most of which have lesser gun restrictions that New York or California contribute about 15% of the TOTAL gun used in crimes? Since we have 50 states, and each could average 2%, I'd say that 10 gun-lenient states only contributing 15% total is pretty good. The report isn't telling us how many INDIGINOUSLY sold guns were used in each state's crimes, i.e. how many New York guns were used in NY crimes. If we were not inclined to THINK about such smears and claims, the gun haters could mess with us. It just confirms how desperate they are.
 
The true problem is in the fact that many people haven't the time, or the ambition, to actually check the math on these "reports". They take them at face value.

What is sorely lacking is a reference value for how long those guns were "in the system", reported lost or stolen, sold, or the owners moved INTO the state requesting the trace. A gun bought in 1979, for example, could have come into the state in question in 1980, been stolen in 2010, and used in a crime. The trace data ends at the initial sales point, in 1979.

This lack of time reference throws the entire statistic into disarray.
 
I wish these coke snorting Democrats would go away. All of their dope, herion, coke, meth and crack crosses state lines. If they would stop abusing drugs 24/7/365 the demand would drop and the trafficking would slow about 90%.

The former president of Mexico once said, they would not have a smuggling problem if the millions of dope fiends in America would take a break from their lust for drugs.
 
This is typical for anti-gun nuts.

"It isn't our fault. It isn't even the criminal's fault. It is those blood thirsty gun owners. They are destroying our fine citys."

They seem to ignore the fact that when the law abiding citizens are armed and can fight back the crime rates fall.

According to the site Gun Facts,
Thirty-nine states282, comprising the majority of the American population, are
"right-to-carry" states. Statistics show that in these states the crime rate fell (or did not
rise) after the right-to-carry law became active (as of July, 2006). Nine states restrict the right to carry and two deny it outright.
Click to expand...

also

Fact: Though the number of firearms owned by private citizens has been increasing steadily since 1970, the overall rate of homicides and suicides has not risen. As the chart shows, there is no correlation between the availability of firearms and the rates of homicide and suicide in America
Click to expand...

If these municipalities want to be as safe as the ten states they list, they should ease their own restrictions.
 
I just wanted to toss a quote from a Mafia hitman in to the thread. To me it shows why these people are fighting against logic.

MAFIA INFORMANT SAMMY "THE BULL" GRAVANO
"Gun control? It's the best thing you can do for crooks and gangsters. I want you to
have nothing. If I'm a bad guy, I'm always gonna have a gun. Safety locks? You
will pull the trigger with a lock on, and I'll pull the trigger. We'll see who wins."
Click to expand...
 
Statistics is a sticky subject.

My personal favorite is "50% of all marriages end in divorce, the other 50%, well, they end in death." It makes it sounds really bad, but it's the truth.

If we wanted to mess with those guys, then we should go on the offensive and we should be cranking out studies and show them just how much the guns do help.

The true problem is in the fact that many people haven't the time, or the ambition, to actually check the math on these "reports". They take them at face value.
Click to expand...

True. Statisticians generally post all of their info with their reports so that they can't be disputed. Other statisticians check them, the rest of us don't.
 
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