Aragon, do you have any hard numbers to show slumping demand? Or is that just wishful thinking for whatever reason?
Or, are you just trolling for an argument?
How well will gun mfgs. throttle back production to match slumping demand?
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Or, are you just trolling for an argument?
Aragon
member
It depends on the gun used. If it's a modern sporting rifle, then there will be a lot of pressure to enact more gun control as there was in the Sandy Hook Elementary School Massacre.
If handguns are used -- as in Isla Vista, CA and now Charleston, SC, the pressure will be far less and it will be fleeting.
USAF_Vet
Member
More safeties; fewer safeties; different types of safeties; hammer fired versions of traditional striker fired guns; striker fired versions of traditionally hammer fired guns; polymer instead of steel; lightweight alloy instead of polymer; this or that new finish; these or those new sights; laser grips in red, green, and purple colors; red green purple frames; 5 shots, 6 shots, 7 shots, 10 shots, 12 shots, 17 shots! Essentially, all the same marketing tricks that have been put to good use over the last 30 years.
Pro series, Operator series, Elite series! Space Shuttle Door Gunner Special!
Guns manufacturers, like automotive manufacturers, can be guilty of marketing something completely different that is really 99% the same as another product. Chevy Camaro vs. Pontiac Firebird. Z28 vs. Trans AM! They were made on the same assembly line. Pontiacs just got a few extra parts like rear sway bars or a high capacity motor.
denton
Member
But there is no decrease in demand. NICS checks continue to increase year over year. The whole discussion of how manufacturers will respond to a non-existent decrease in demand presumes something that is not true.
Aragon
member
Some are still in denial about gun sales dropping from from historic highs:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=falling+firearms+sales
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=falling+firearms+sales
Sam1911
Moderator Emeritus
Denial:
Meh.
Nobody -- not anyone, and certainly not anyone in the industry -- thought or claimed that their sales would hold above the massive peaks of the recognized spikes after the election and Sandy Hook. It appears the question we're debating here is without substance because no leader of any gun company could possibly be surprised that sales would not hold at stratospheric levels. I imagine, if anything, they're more surprised at how strong sales have remained and remain today.
Meh.
Nobody -- not anyone, and certainly not anyone in the industry -- thought or claimed that their sales would hold above the massive peaks of the recognized spikes after the election and Sandy Hook. It appears the question we're debating here is without substance because no leader of any gun company could possibly be surprised that sales would not hold at stratospheric levels. I imagine, if anything, they're more surprised at how strong sales have remained and remain today.
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Aragon
member
Indeed.
Sam1911
Moderator Emeritus
Indeed. That would be a "well duh" sort of statement. Surprising no one at all from Jimmy with his first rifle all the way up to the execs at Remlinchester.
No he doesn't. However, neither do those that claim sales aren't slumping. These folks generally point to background checks as proof that gun sales aren't falling. However, background checks are done for concealed carry, explosive sales, and guns sales (both new and used). What matters to gun manufacturers are sales of new guns.
Aragon likely sees the same things I have seen. Gun shelfs stocked full of guns but few customers at the counter. He also sees prices coming down which indicates supply is exceeding demand.
No one will have hard numbers until official sales numbers are released. That won't happen for a couple of years.
denton
Member
The CNN Money article that started this rumor was seriously in error. They compared the then current NICS checks with the number of NICS checks for the same month the previous year. As it happened, the same month the previous year was in the middle of the all-time record high sales associated with Obama's election.
Are you going to believe CNN or your lying eyes? NICS checks are highly correlated with new gun sales.
Gun sales are seasonal. May through August is routinely the slow portion of the year. The overall trend is relentlessly upward.
Here is the silly "gun sales are plunging" article: http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/14/news/companies/guns-ammo-sales/
And here is a January 2015 CNN article saying that gun sales are surging: http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/07/news/fbi-gun-sales/
A quote from the lede:
Are you going to believe CNN or your lying eyes? NICS checks are highly correlated with new gun sales.
Gun sales are seasonal. May through August is routinely the slow portion of the year. The overall trend is relentlessly upward.
Here is the silly "gun sales are plunging" article: http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/14/news/companies/guns-ammo-sales/
And here is a January 2015 CNN article saying that gun sales are surging: http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/07/news/fbi-gun-sales/
A quote from the lede:
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Sam1911
Moderator Emeritus
Of course, but there is no cogent reason (that I'm aware of?) why there would have a boom (Ha!) in explosives sales during this time, and likewise no reason to expect any upward swing in the rate at which used guns change hands, relative to new gun sales. (In fact, relative to new gun sales, the percentage of gun sales which are used guns finding new owners could very probably be assumed to have fallen dramatically.)
So this rebuttal or mitigation seems without merit.
Reasons why the percentages of used guns may increase:
- An increase in total guns in the USA means more used guns are available for sale
- Several states have passed laws requiring background checks for private sales (EDIT: These sales would now show up in NCIS numbers)
- Baby Boomers are dying and their collections are being sold or transferred.
However, for me it comes down to the basics of supply and demand. Falling prices indicate to me that supply is exceeding demand.
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Aragon
member
Indeed. That and availability. A simple (and non scientific) on-line stroll through GunBroker or Bud's is a far, far different experience from a year or two ago -- both in terms of pricing and availability -- and not only on ARs.
Ed Ames
Member
Where? I go to a lot of gun stores and for the most part what you said just ain't true. Oh, it is true if you compare counters of today to those from 2 years ago, but that wasn't normal. Compare them to 7 years ago.
The closest store to where I am sitting is typical. In 2007 they had eight handgun counter/cabinets, and each cabinet held at least 32 guns. They were pointed muzzle out with not much space between so figure four per linear foot of cabinet. Today they have five cabinets, and the guns are pointed along the cabinets so their density is down to 8-10 guns per case. I am pretty sure that means they now carry less than 20% of the handgun inventory they had in 2007. Is it more than they had in 2012? Yup. But it is still way down.
Same with their long guns. That store had horizontal displays on two walls and a vertical rack along a third. Each horizontal display wall had five columns of about 10 long guns each, and the back wall was about 20 feet of a 3 long guns per foot. 160 long guns on display. At the bottom of the panic they were down to zero long guns. Today they have 20 long guns on one wall, 10 on another, and the vertical rack was gone. So they were up from zero to 30 guns. Or were they down from 160 to 30? Depends on the timeline you consider.
That store is the most extreme example in the area, but not the only one. Most gun stores are showing sparce counters compared to before 2008.
Sam1911
Moderator Emeritus
Reasons why the percentages of used guns probably have NOT increased:
Especially as...
These all seem like desperate grasps at straws to support the assertion.
But not to outpace the quantities of NEW guns being made and sold, which has been at unprecedented high levels for years now. Sure, there are more used guns being sold than before, but there is no reason at all to make the profound assumption that they represent a larger percentage of total sales than they ever have before.
Especially as...
This is not a significant percentage of states, nor of gun sales so affected. Some percentage of used guns always transferred through dealer sales (thus causing NICS records) and now a small handful of states have started requiring ALL sales of used guns to be so. And we may presume that there is at least token compliance with those laws, though far from universal. But this can't be assumed to make a noticeable difference as it affects a small percentage of part of a fraction of the total NICS checks.
As has always happened. But again, not at greatly advancing rates which would cause a spike.
These all seem like desperate grasps at straws to support the assertion.
Ed Ames
Member
Actually, boomers are dying at a rate lower than "millenials" are coming of age. Any supposed "boomer glut" is completely offset by the grandkids, who could absorb all of the boomer guns and still need to buy more to maintain the same number of guns per capita. And millenials are not as anti gun as boomers were.
The Baby Boomers and Millennial generations are roughly the same size at 76 million. However, the older a person is the more likely they are to own a gun.
18-29 = 26%
30-49 = 32%
50-65 = 40%
65 + = 40%
wally
Member
But in many (most?) states, Texas for sure, once you have a CHL you no longer need the call-in background check. While CHL holders are unlikely to be first time gun buyers, its pretty common to want two or more guns in the "carry rotation" depending on season, dress requirements, perceived risk of needing to be in "bad areas", etc.
I'm sure I'm not typical but this has been my gun actively so far this this year:
(4 more guns will be sold shortly)
- I purchased 9 guns. (5 new / 4 used)
- For these guns I did 4 background checks (Picked up multiple guns at the FFL on 1 check)
- I've sold 4 guns (shipped to FFL's likely resulting in background checks)
(4 more guns will be sold shortly)
Ed Ames
Member
Yes, owning a gun is like owning a screwdriver. Nobody was born owning a screwdriver, and there are some 80+ year olds who have never owned one, but for the most part every year increases your odds of owning one and once you do you will probably keep it. That was insightful of you to bring up but I don't think it counters my point.
If 40% of boomers have guns, and the boomers and millennials are about the same size, that means that millennials (who, as you point out, are not born owning guns) are capable of absorbing the entire boomer gun supply. So these dreams of a boomer glut are just dreams. Wishful thinking. Those guns are spoken for.
Ed Ames
Member
And then you have me. I am in a NICS state. I have purchased ... I don't know if you count silencers actually so call it 7+ new guns, 3-4 used... A total of 10-14 transactions, and have caused 0 NICS checks.
Aragon
member
Quite the opposite in some cases with increased barriers to purchasing firearms.
I guess we will have to set our calendars for 2 years from now and look at actual gun sales to see if new gun sales are increasing or decreasing.
There are so many factors that come into play when you go looking at gun & ammo sales.
1. Availability and how well something sells when it's put on the shelf of a LGS. I'm pretty sure gun store owners look at that specifically when it comes time to decide which guns to reorder.
2. Guns, & even ammo, are really luxury/amenity items; they are not typically "Necessary"; this comes into play when a potential buyer is looking at whether or not to buy a gun;
3. Being a luxury item, if the budget is best spent on bills, and for lots of folks, budgets are tight nowadays, well, less gets spent on such luxury items. The economy seems to be in a downward spiral as well. Maybe that is the biggest factor in prices falling; less available cash; and it's better to sell a thousand of something and make $2 each than it is to sell two of something for a thousand each. Think about it; although I'm certain that some will argue against, but when it comes to guns & related gear/ammo/etc, it's far better to sell 1000 guns than 2..
4. Politics drives demand as well. Get some idiots in DC trying to stop certain types of gun related sales, and you'll see runs. While you and I might consider our arsenal complete, younger folks, or those that were financially strapped before, but aren't now- might see it as time for them to take the plunge. As of late, it does seem that gun control, for and by politicians, seems to be political suicide; but that may change.
Right now, I wonder how much of the supposed slump is caused by a lack of spendable cash, and or by a lack of different choices behind the counters. However, with falling prices, it seems that the thing to do, if you can, is to consider buying what you feel you need, and buy it while the prices are lower. We are always just one "bad" event away from a rush, or so it seems. In other words, now, while prices are lower, is a good time to stock up on things like ammo, or to pick up that gun that you did want before but didn't have the cash for..
1. Availability and how well something sells when it's put on the shelf of a LGS. I'm pretty sure gun store owners look at that specifically when it comes time to decide which guns to reorder.
2. Guns, & even ammo, are really luxury/amenity items; they are not typically "Necessary"; this comes into play when a potential buyer is looking at whether or not to buy a gun;
3. Being a luxury item, if the budget is best spent on bills, and for lots of folks, budgets are tight nowadays, well, less gets spent on such luxury items. The economy seems to be in a downward spiral as well. Maybe that is the biggest factor in prices falling; less available cash; and it's better to sell a thousand of something and make $2 each than it is to sell two of something for a thousand each. Think about it; although I'm certain that some will argue against, but when it comes to guns & related gear/ammo/etc, it's far better to sell 1000 guns than 2..
4. Politics drives demand as well. Get some idiots in DC trying to stop certain types of gun related sales, and you'll see runs. While you and I might consider our arsenal complete, younger folks, or those that were financially strapped before, but aren't now- might see it as time for them to take the plunge. As of late, it does seem that gun control, for and by politicians, seems to be political suicide; but that may change.
Right now, I wonder how much of the supposed slump is caused by a lack of spendable cash, and or by a lack of different choices behind the counters. However, with falling prices, it seems that the thing to do, if you can, is to consider buying what you feel you need, and buy it while the prices are lower. We are always just one "bad" event away from a rush, or so it seems. In other words, now, while prices are lower, is a good time to stock up on things like ammo, or to pick up that gun that you did want before but didn't have the cash for..
Ed Ames
Member
The opposite of what? I honestly don't know what idea you meant to convey here.
I have never inherited a gun (I'm not a millennial) but if I had, I'm pretty sure it would have made its way to my possession without any of the "barriers to purchasing". A friend of mine inherited some guns from the father of one of his coworkers, for example, and it was just like you say, no barriers. The coworker just brought 'em into work and they moved 'em from one trunk to the other. That was in California where the state wants transfers to go through dealers but at this point (years later) who could say where they are or where it happened?
I see something similar in new York. Apparently 96% of weapons some recent law recategorized as "assault rifles" are now going to be inherited and traded off papers, and actually are less likely to be used because they make better reserve guns now.
But the point is still there...the boomer guns aren't going to reduce new firearms sales in any meaningful way.
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