Sam Gabbert of SGAmmo on the status of Russian ammo

OilyPablo said:

Lie? No. Maybe that is what HE sells, but I have never seen anyone shooting Russian 9mm (9x19). My friend, one time, bought some in the 2010-2011 time frame. Ended up giving it away.

9x18Mak? Sure. 7.62x39 all day long...........

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So, I'm curious- how many new owners are around? I doubt many post here, we're all pretty much longtime shooters.

But the new guys- panic-buy a Glock or M&P, or something like that, in the last year. Looks for ammo. Looks for ammo. Looks for.... you get the point. What's out there right now? Tula 9mm, for somewhere around 60% of the price of whatever else is out there. So it's mostly online; we ARE talking about the Amazon generation- and the Covid scares have made it even more likely to have it shipped to your door, rather than go to the store. How many of them do you think care what the brand is?
Heck, I've shot a lot of brass, and if you press me on it, I can't tell you if Igman is any good, better than Belom, etc. I do understand Belom is a PPU sub-brand, don't know if it's better or worse than the named stuff. I haven't a clue on Igman, other than it's Croatian and they probably test the XD's with it. You can get Federal if you want to fight your way through a morning at Academy, some folks don't like that. And I don't know what version they have, even.

I'd guess what we will see is all the russian ammo disappear as people panic buy, then show back up when shipments land. Rinse and repeat until the already authorized permits are used up. Then it will be off to the races for stuff like 762x39, 9 Mak, etc. and significant incremental pressure on the low end of stuff like 223, 9MM luger etc. where the Russian stuff was the cheapest choice.

A gradual ban on imported Russian ammo isn't carved in stone.

It could easily happen to one or more companies over the next year or so,
but until it happens, the actual, future Results of the State Department's new words "...Subject to denial..." (not exactly the same as “denied) , for a while....are rather unpredictable.

John_R said:

In my experience shopping at stores that sell ammo, I’ve seen the following amount of Russian products:

45 auto: Zero
9x18 Makarov: zero
30 carbine: zero
308 Winchester / 762x51: zero
380 Auto: zero
300 Blackout: zero
6.5 Grendel: zero

Where is all this Russian ammo being sold? I know you can buy it online, but anywhere else?

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Generally speaking I don't see much steel cased at independent LGS, especially not at stores with an indoor range. They seem to be brass only and most of them ban bringing in steel cased to their ranges. I strongly believe this is an economic decision. They have larger mark up on the brass ammo and many of them have a secondary business from their ranges selling once fired brass.

Go to any of the big chain stores and steel becomes common if not predominate for some cartridges. These are selling big volume at bulk prices.

I do not expect the executive order to ever be rescinded based on past situations. We haven't changed sporting use definitions or lifted any sanctions on Chinese arms, not to mention nothing on NFA ever comes off. There is no political benefit for a President to strike these orders.

NIGHTLORD40K said:

I see this as a huge opportunity for the economies of friendly countries such the Czech Republic, Serbia, and the Phillipines. I dont think the domestics will add significant capacity to compete for low-margin products.

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PMC from South Korea can't forget them

Simple S and D; if the supply decreases, how will the demand behavior respond - we do not know yet but we do know that it will respond to cost eventually. Ammo transformed from a consumable to an investment in a short time and the demand behavior changed. My prediction is that the shooting population will shoot less in the future for many reasons, I do not know how that will affect supply and/ or pricing. I think that ammo will remain an investment for the near future and shooting volume will continue to slowly shrink - pricing will stabilize (as I think it has already), supply will very slowly increase - until a swan event (positive or negative) affects any part of ammo S and D, we are presently at equilibrium.

''A gradual ban on imported Russian ammo isn't carved in stone.

It could easily happen to one or more companies over the next year or so,
but until it happens, the actual, future Results of the State Department's new words "...Subject to denial..." (not exactly the same as “denied) , for a while....are rather unpredictable.''

Carved in stone no? Oh ! why, o why would Joe EVER want to ban ammo like he has said he would?

If everyone will excuse me I have to finish my comments on the previously 100% approved braces ban, and, contact my attorney / updates on the subsequent lawsuit(s) re: closed comment period on receivers, home builds, gunsmiths etc.

I don't purchase very much ammo at all... I have to give a good thumbs up for SGA... My few purchases with them were right on the money each time... It will be interesting to see how this shakes out - and here's hoping outfits like IMI might actually find a business opportunity and fill in any new demand for those wanting russian type ammo...

lsudave said:

You should be happy, you're ok. In addition to the Russian steel, I still have Fiocchi, PPU and Geco brass FMJ, and PPU JHP. And Hornady still makes JHP I think, as does I believe Buffalo Bore.
In other words, there's plenty of (European) manufacturers still making this caliber. There will be something available before you run out. As I recall, I didn't pay over $13 for any of the FMJ, and I think the JHP was around $18 (and during a panic rush).

The guys who shoot 5.45 are SOL, and the guys who shoot 7.62x39 are going to have to re-evaluate their usage.
I think x39 is still an ideal hog and ok deer cartridge, and there's a lot of guns that shoot it. But it won't remain the cheapest centerfire cartridge available.
I think the Mosin guys will be ok, PPU doesn't cost TOO awful much, and it's a lot cleaner.

I suspect this is going to hurt the 300 Blackout and other niche AR calibers, a lot more than people realize.

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Thanks. Ill keep those brands saved for when I run out

Am I paranoid to think of Our Leaders saying "Let's take a break from ruining the national economy, public health, and foreign relations and think of a way to screw gun owners that won't have to go through congress or the courts."

Well, even paranoids have enemies, so, "at this point, what difference does it make?"

Was at Bimart yesterday and took a pic. Its fuzzy cause i got knocked out of way by guy grabbing ammo in pic. (LOL)

Jim Watson said:

....... a way to screw gun owners that won't have to go through congress or the courts.

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That's pretty much gun control in a nutshell.

John_R said:

In my experience shopping at stores that sell ammo, I’ve seen the following amount of Russian products:

45 auto: Zero
9x18 Makarov: zero
30 carbine: zero
308 Winchester / 762x51: zero
380 Auto: zero
300 Blackout: zero
6.5 Grendel: zero

Where is all this Russian ammo being sold? I know you can buy it online, but anywhere else?

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Wolf and TulAmmo in those calibers is just about all I've seen for the past year, or and Red Army Standard in 7.62x39. Lately I have been seeing a bit more Federal sneaking in.

I reload so steel case is very gross to me, but I still have a hundred or so Wolf 6.5 Grendel 100 grain laying around that's very accurate, surprisingly so.

This could be a business opportunity for some daring person. Buy up some industrial reloading equipment and space, get you manufacture FFL license and start loading these com-block cartridges here in the US.

mcb said:

This could be a business opportunity for some daring person. Buy up some industrial reloading equipment and space, get you manufacture FFL license and start loading these com-block cartridges here in the US.

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Manufacturers, especially small manufacturers, doubly so for startups, have the same limitations of component supplies as we home reloaders.

rust collector said:

When it comes right down to it, cheap guns and ammo created a niche in the market and probably cost domestic producers a lot of money.

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Which is why US firearms manufacturers supported GCA 1968 and its restrictions on imports. And dealers had to be in favor of the effective ban on mail-order sales.

rust collector said:

cheap guns and ammo created a niche in the market and probably cost domestic producers a lot of money.

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Jim Watson said:

Which is why US firearms manufacturers supported GCA 1968 and its restrictions on imports. And dealers had to be in favor of the effective ban on mail-order sales

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Exactly however let's also add in the presence of inexpensive imported guns and ammo brings in a lot of buyers who otherwise simply would not buy a firearm. There is only so many people who are tempted with "buy this one for $700 and ammo cost $1.25", but you offer "buy this one for $100 and ammo costs 15 cents" a giant heap of new folks will appear. The old basic supply/demand of low prices generating addition sales with the understanding a lot of those sales are first time owners.

There was a really good example of this with SKS back a few decades ago. The argument from Winchester was that the imports were hurting demand for traditional hunting rifles (lever guns). Maybe, but they sure weren't selling anything near the volume before or after the imports. Imported SKS were sold by the millions, with ATF reports of 950,000 from China in 1993 alone. Low price reliable guns do create their own niche market, just don't assume it's a small one. When that option disappears people don't suddenly pony up the cash for the more expensive ones. They are simply priced out.

NIGHTLORD40K said:

Thats true. 50% of my total ammunition stash is Russian steel-cased, but I consider it "wartime emergency" stockpile and it is prepped for long-term storage. The domestic brass stuff gets picked for casual range use or serious target work.

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Yep, I’d say 80+% of my “never shoot” stash is Russian.

These trade laws can change quickly. I don’t think we’ve seen the end of Russian ammo imports. It’s a political bargaining chip in an endless poker game.

mcb said:

This could be a business opportunity for some daring person. Buy up some industrial reloading equipment and space, get you manufacture FFL license and start loading these com-block cartridges here in the US.

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Where would they get primers?

brewer12345 said:

Where would they get primers?

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Make them. Once you have the manufacture's FFL and required paper work to manufacture ammunition they can buy the raw material and make their own primers.

Our primer shortage is not a raw material problem but a current manufacturing capacity problems. The current primer manufactures are not selling primers to reloaders (private and small botique loaders) because they can use all the primers they produce in ammo they produce not because they don't have enough materials to make primers. If you have the machines to make primers I have no doubt you could source the raw material to make primers.

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mcb said:

Make them. Once you have the manufacture's FFL and required paper work to manufacture ammunition they can buy the raw material and make their own primers.

Our primer shortage is not a raw material problem but a current manufacturing capacity problems. The current primer manufactures are not selling primers to reloaders (private and small botique loaders) because they can use all the primers they produce in ammo they produce not because they don't have enough materials to make primers. If you have the machines to make primers I have no doubt you could source the raw material to make primers.

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Would be at least two years to set up a new primer factory.

brewer12345 said:

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Would be at least two years to set up a new primer factory.

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I could believe that but if you can no longer import Russin ammo and you want to setup and become that US ammo maker making these hard to find Russian calibers it would be a wise investment. And if the market gets slow at some point in the future there are lots of reloaders that would be happy to buy primers from you.

mcb said:

I could believe that but if you can no longer import Russin ammo and you want to setup and become that US ammo maker making these hard to find Russian calibers it would be a wise investment. And if the market gets slow at some point in the future there are lots of reloaders that would be happy to buy primers from you.

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Just takes a lot of start up capital in an industry that is shunned by many providers of same. In a commodity chemical industry, there would already be multiple new facilities under construction.