Going back to normal

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Axis II

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Not trying to stir the pot but generally curious. I went to cabelas and another chain store that carries reloading gear and the prices are really high. It’s been 2yrs since things started soaring and it doesn’t seem like it’s coming down either. It actually went up a little. I have been holding off buying stuff cause I refuse to spend $100 on primers or $50 on powder. I’m starting to wonder if I should just suck it up and accept it for the new norm and buy some stuff. I don’t need it but stock is getting low.
 
I personally don't accept this as the "new norm" but, fact is, if you want to load and don't want to wait, then you need to suck it up.

I believe prices will drop off but how much and when...well, without a crystal ball that's anybody's guess.

Only other comment I would have is, there are still reasonably priced components out there but they are very few and you need to be in the right place at the right time ready to buy.
 
FWIW, I think you have to look at your stock and decide how long it will last. We've seen how supplies can completely dry up for a year or more. So if you are approaching (or have gone under) what you need to survive the next supply outage, then I think you buy just enough to stay above that level.

It sucks having to pay those prices, and maybe in a year prices will drop to a more reasonable level, but it seems unlikely with inflation and oil prices at current levels.

I've been trying to get ahead on bullets. Prices are up, but they are available, and I don't see them getting cheaper anytime soon. Still much cheaper than loaded ammo on the shelf. If that situation were to suddenly turn around (loaded ammo cheaper than bullets today), I'd buy some loaded ammo to shoot and save the brass.
 
There have been a couple threads in the past on here that have an email from ATK to dealers that costs will be increacing (IIRC 20%). This stands to reason and as much as we want it not to things are gonna cost more. Still the severly jacked up prices are not going to get lower until we as consumers stop paying those amounts. If you need it, you need it. I am waiting for more normal prices to restock. Hope it's a short wait though.
 
I'm in the same boat with the OP, guess we will keep rowing around till the prices decide to come down.

I'm seeing a constant supply of bullets and powder on the shelves at my LGS,
but powder seems to be holding at around $50.lb.
Standard primers are about $100/K and still flying off the shelf as soon as they come in.
CCI #34, BR-4 and Federal Match primers stay longer, but they are also >$100/K
 
While I have been monitoring and tracking reloading component availability and price trends over several cycles the past 30 years, this shortage cycle definitely has shown delayed rebound from the bottom and I feel primer prices falling will take a little longer this time around.

Why the delay in "return to normal"?

Well, around 100 million guns were sold the past decade and in recent years, to new gun owners. And all these new guns, especially new gun owners will need ammunition to shoot in these guns. Market price of anything is dictated by supply and demand ... pure and simple. And 100 million guns sold with likely millions of new gun owners ... That is A LOT OF DEMAND that existing supply infrastructure simply won't be able to support ... And that's why we have seen a protracted delay in "return to normal".

But I am starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

How?

In the "Affordable 22LR ..." thread, we have already broken below the $40/500 ceiling and approached low $34/500 price point. While rest of 22LR pricing has been hovering around $40-$50/500, I am slowly seeing a gradual movement down which is what happened during the 2017-2019 rebound where price of 22LR went from $40/500 all the way down to below $20/500 to $16/500 - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...t-shipped-pricing.902560/page-4#post-12285264

I am reluctant to believe we would return back to below $20/500 for 22LR but I am thinking we may see below $30/500 this time around.

So from my perspective, I think we may go below current pricing before we see the pricing of "new normal" so I would suggest keeping a close eye on supply/inventory/pricing before really stocking up big time.

Believe me, if I think we hit the bottom and prices are heading back up, you will certainly see me posting, "BUY, BUY, BUY!!!" just like 2019. ;)
 
LiveLife said:
While I have been monitoring and tracking reloading component availability and price trends over several cycles the past 30 years, this shortage cycle definitely has shown delayed rebound from the bottom and I feel primer prices falling will take a little longer this time around.

Why the delay in "return to normal"?

Well, around 100 million guns were sold the past decade and in recent years, to new gun owners. And all these new guns, especially new gun owners will need ammunition to shoot in these guns. Market price of anything is dictated by supply and demand ... pure and simple. And 100 million guns sold with likely millions of new gun owners ... That is A LOT OF DEMAND that existing supply infrastructure simply won't be able to support ... And that's why we have seen a protracted delay in "return to normal".

But I am starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

How?

In the "Affordable 22LR ..." thread, we have already broken below the $40/500 ceiling and approached low $34/500 price point. While rest of 22LR pricing has been hovering around $40-$50/500, I am slowly seeing a gradual movement down which is what happened during the 2017-2019 rebound where price of 22LR went from $40/500 all the way down to below $20/500 to $16/500 - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...t-shipped-pricing.902560/page-4#post-12285264

I am reluctant to believe we would return back to below $20/500 for 22LR but I am thinking we may see below $30/500 this time around.

So from my perspective, I think we may go below current pricing before we see the pricing of "new normal" so I would suggest keeping a close eye on supply/inventory/pricing before really stocking up big time.

Believe me, if I think we hit the bottom and prices are heading back up, you will certainly see me posting, "BUY, BUY, BUY!!!" just like 2019. ;)
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I stopped in the LGS here last week. Their 22 LR ammo was very thin. A month or so ago they had decent stock. Ammo overall, they reduced the shelving by a third.
 
Must factor in inflation. Inflation has increased the price of almost everything 20%. IF things fully recover, expect prices to remain no lower than 20% higher than they use to be. When would THIS happen? We have two more years of Biden. IF a Republican gets into office, it will take close to two years for things to return to our preferred 'normal'... so I predict around 4 years to get there IF we get a Republican in office.

Another scenario is the cycle we are possibly in right now...
Inflation ----> Recession ----> Recovery ----> Good Times
If we go into a recession, there's a good chance prices will go down.

So, I'd stock what I need for now. I don't see things getting cheap again for quite a while.
 
I don't believe you will ever see the old "normal" again. Having tested the tolerance for high prices, manufacturers and vendors have learned and are learning the price points for maximizing profits and discovered that those price points are higher than they used to be. Another factor, besides the influx of new hand loaders buying components, is that most typical hand loaders don't have multiple years worth of components stashed away and will eventually have to come back to the market at higher prices or find another hobby. I hope prices come back down to "normal", but I'm not going to cut off my nose to spite my face. If I need/want components to feed my hobby, I'll bitch and moan about how prices have gone up, but I'll still pay'em. ymmv
 
Y’all need to take into account the one thing which has been getting cheaper: The Dollar.

That’s outside of ordinary inflation and regulatory cost increases. The value of the dollar against the six index currencies is in free fall. That means our buying power is falling and everything we, as a country, import costs more even when demand is less. We do not live in a free market economy. Regulation and policy effect availability even when demand is not in the equation. The cost of labor being the largest factor and it’s 100% regulated by policy, not supply or demand.
 
Manufacturers working around the clock on 9 luger and 223/556 NATO.
Everything else sucking hind teit, including 12 and 20 gauge anything.
Haven't seen ANY large rifle primers at any price!
Demand, inflation. inflation, and $120/ barrel crude?
We may never see 4 cent SPP and 2-3 cents are history.
 
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We are stuck in this boat for a while I think demand is through the roof Plus
Uncle sam's stock piles are draining with the donations to Ukraine
I read an article the other day that uncle Sam is looking for ways to replenish the stockpile quickly
Not much meat left on the bone for reloaders
 
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We are starting to see a little easing in supply in both powder and primers however it is no where near normal. Until supply levels get back to the point we can buy whatever we want whenever we want it we won't come close to seeing prices drop. On top of that there are still major issues in supply chain and labor markets. I have been buying what I need when I find it and am happy to not have my reloading activities affected.
 
I hesitant to say “never” will we see decent prices again. History has proven people wrong when they have.

Anybody who says that they’ve got some magic bullet to get oil, gas prices down to 2 bucks a gallon aren’t telling the truth.
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President Obama, 3-13-2012

In March of 2020, with a different POTUS the National average was $1.86…

With another POTUS we are now above $4 again. Will they go back down? I will bet they do with an administration change but we have a few years to go before the consequences of the last election can be corrected.

Since Clinton, all firearms related items are more expensive and less available when Democrats are in office. I hate that so many were caught without this time but I think the huge influx of new people enjoying our rights are good for the gun community and I hope that continues.

One thing is for sure, without a doubt, even if primers do become available in the future for <$20/1000 again, there will still be people out there that don’t stock up and complain when the next panic takes place and prices go through the roof again.
 
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I wonder how many folks are like me, in that we had a decent supply of most things, but after two years are starting to run low and occasionally spending too much for a particular item - now that things are starting to show up. I suspect that the hoarders have full shelves and/or empty wallets by now, but the bubble may persist for a while more as the rest of us restock. I have faith, though, that the market will eventually return to some kind of normality and that competition will bring prices back out of the stratosphere.
 
.38 Special said:
I wonder how many folks are like me, in that we had a decent supply of most things, but after two years are starting to run low and occasionally spending too much for a particular item - now that things are starting to show up. I suspect that the hoarders have full shelves and/or empty wallets by now, but the bubble may persist for a while more as the rest of us restock. I have faith, though, that the market will eventually return to some kind of normality and that competition will bring prices back out of the stratosphere.
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Like you, I was a hoarder when prices were low. I’m not sure anyone is hoarding when prices are high.
 
Buy what you need for the next 12-18 months and maybe by then prices will get closer to what used to be normal. I don’t think we will see those prices again, but maybe 20% more could happen, but I would t expect to see that for at least 2 years or more. Keep at least a years stock in reserve minimum and buy what you need as you find anything resembling a deal to keep you going.
 
I’ve bought during all the high times, 1994, 2012, 2020/2021.

what I know is when I pull a new lb of powder out from 1994, or 2012, I get an immediate smile on my face.

Many of you have covered it; inflation, devaluation of our dollar, supply chain issues, war.

My philosophy is “better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.”

I still look for deals. Example: For some time Brownells limit was 2,000 on primers. Everyone else was 1,000. I’d put 2,000 in my cart, then search for powder. If I got the powder I wanted, say 6 lbs or more, I’d pull the trigger. Spreading out hazmat and shipping fees.!!

I left a bunch of stuff in my cart, but added a lot of stuff to my shelves as well.

I don’t like paying $79, or $84 a 1,000 for primers, hate it!

But when I load them in bullets and nobody else can find ammo, I get that familiar smile again. Plus once the $$$ is gone, who cares? Plus, plus, “better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.”
 
I wonder how many of these types of threads will have to exist before mods come in a shut them down immediately. They're not about handloading, they're about economics and the economics doesn't change so they are pointless.
 
Bearded Phil said:
I wonder how many of these types of threads will have to exist before mods come in a shut them down immediately. They're not about handloading, they're about economics and the economics doesn't change so they are pointless.
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Maybe so. But if they get even one more shooter or reloader to think ahead and stock up on supplies the discussion is OK with me. Not everybody has past experience buying things that cycle in and out of stock so violently when certain triggers happen. Teach the newbs how to weather these occurrences, do not mock them. They are the future of this sport.
 
Bearded Phil said:
I wonder how many of these types of threads will have to exist before mods come in a shut them down immediately. They're not about handloading, they're about economics and the economics doesn't change so they are pointless.
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Phil - I respect your comment but disagree (Of course, I'm not a moderator....so there is that).

As avid reloaders, we need to maintain a steady flow of components to ensure our friable skills and enjoyment do not wane (or end entirely). While it most always comes down to "How much can you afford to spend", some folks need to see how others deal with availability and pricing so they can make a decision for themselves - herd behavior is a real thing in this world.

I have worked out a sort of compromise with myself....when I finish up a brick of primers or a 1K box or projectiles I buy another - just to maintain my base supply. If Vista and ATC suddenly announced tomorrow they were never going to make components available to the market again I'd be pissed...but I'd survive.
 
Akula69 said:
Phil - I respect your comment but disagree (Of course, I'm not a moderator....so there is that).

As avid reloaders, we need to maintain a steady flow of components to ensure our friable skills and enjoyment do not wane (or end entirely). While it most always comes down to "How much can you afford to spend", some folks need to see how others deal with availability and pricing so they can make a decision for themselves - herd behavior is a real thing in this world.

I have worked out a sort of compromise with myself....when I finish up a brick of primers or a 1K box or projectiles I buy another - just to maintain my base supply. If Vista and ATC suddenly announced tomorrow they were never going to make components available to the market again I'd be pissed...but I'd survive.
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I’ll add this: there is a real net effect on how we put together loads when any one - or more - preferred component is scarce. Go count the number of, “Can I use rifle primers in pistols..?” threads. Ditto for case and powder substitution. Those are not ideal swaps, they’re forced by economic realities. Yes, shortages are Germaine to the conversation.
 
I've gone thru plenty of shortages as a gun owner/shooter, and because of it I have plenty of ammo, mags, etc....

But I just started reloading for pistol in 2018 and had never seen or heard of a reloading supply shortage. Even so, I was prepared and have enough to keep loading pistol ammo for a few years at my current usage.

Bottleneck rifle is a different story. I began reloading .223 last August, and as such had nothing in the way of components. I've had to pay higher prices for primers and powder compared to a few years ago, but I now have enough components to last a few years.

Before I started reloading I would never have thought of a shortage on components. Threads like this one may help new reloaders be prepared to weather the next shortage, although this one may be a painful learning experience. And some will never learn.

chris
 
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