to those folks predicting the .40 is just going to dry up - keep dreamin', it's here to stay. It's very very popular, at least in my neck of the woods.
you may be right, tell me this though. Realisticly and honestly how much of the 40's popularity is because of it's prevelence and use in Law Enforecement?
Now, in the US there is a disporportionate amount of weight given by local and state agencies to what is being issued/used by the FBI with regard to firearms/ammo decisions. And I'm pretty sure that
if the FBI reverts back to the 9mm, many is the agency that will also revert at the earliest convenience, sheerly on the basis of perceived budget issues, much less the, again likely perceived only, ease of training issue.
without LE sales the number of new guns produced in .40S&W
will drop off and likely will drop off sharply, as the likes of Glock and SIG streamline to make even more 9's.
I never said the death would be immediate or complete. But without FBI issue of the 40 to fuel the idea that 9mm is somehow inadequate, issue to/use by LE of the .40 will decline. Then as that use declines and the gun makers switch to 9mm (or whatever) to fulfill the LE market overall "civilian" interest in the round will decline as well.
Now to cover why i said what i said in my first post here. I was answering to the idea that 40s&w would be the next 38super. I don't beleive that the .40S&W will do what the 38super has done. I.e. survive 80 years past it's perceived obsolescence in Law Enforecement mainly on it's utility in a single sport. without IPSC 38Super would be a footnote, heck outside of IPSC and "1911 People" how well known
is the Super?
Now all that said, do i think that .40 will decline greatly if and when the Feds drop it, Yes
do i think it will disapear? No. and i think that its decline will occur over a moderately extended time, say 15-20 years. In otherwords I think that in time the .40 will start to go the way of the 10mm Auto.