Clean97GTI said:
jfruser, your claims on ethanol production are a bit dated. It totally discounts forestry (wood ethanol) as well as oceans as potential sources for ethanol. While it would take quite a bit of work, it can be done. Sugar doesn't only come from sugar cane and the US is a huge producer of sugar beets. We can also produce cellulose based sources for ethanol to help bolster production. This is near cutting edge stuff and we just don't have all the answers yet. If you'd like a few sources of cellulose, just think about all the corn stalks, wood, there is a certain illegal plant that grows phenomenally (almost like a weed) that can be used to produce ethanol. Corn and sugar are not the only sources.
True, it has been a while since I read them & was interested in this subject, but the studies I read (way back before the 'net. Printed on actual paper.) about assumed that not only would we use land currently in production, but that we would clear all land that was once in production but has been let go back to wild. IOW, all the top producing land plus all the land that was not economically viable, given competition from the Midwest. That land that went back to the wild is mostly in the east & especially in the northeast. Just how much support do you think a proposal to cut back all the forest lands regained since the year 1900, so we could drive eth autos? Also, it assumed that sugar beets would be grown where viable.
OK, assume we did all that, plus planted wacky tobaccy in every ditch & marsh. *** do we then eat? We go from being energy dependent to being food dependent. What a wonderful improvement.
Also, I recall (from dimming memory), that the stalks & other unusable veg matter was to be distlled into methanol (wood alcohol). Very little was to be wasted. Which brough the question to my mind, "Just how long until the soil gets played out, when every last bit of veg material is used for fuel & none goes back to replenish the soil?"
Also, wood alcohol is not "wood ethanol." Two very different alcohols. Methanol is much more toxic than ethanol and when burned produces formaldehydes. I recall distilling wood in 9th grade. Whooooeeee! What a stink!
Clean97GTI said:
Without government subsidies (while I'm not a huge fan of government spending) we'd not be able to develop this at all and foreign oil would rule until it ran out. This gives us a way to hedge our bets against such a problem.
Oil will rule until it is no longer economically viable. All the silly, wasteful edicts by congresscritters matter not a whit; certainly no more than if some congresscritter, 'round 'bout the year 1830 tried to subsidize the petroleum industry in anticipation of the oncoming shortage of whale oil in 70 years.
Clean97GTI said:
Your math also seems a bit off.
I should have been clearer. Lemme try again:
* Eth has 1/2-2/3 the energy per unit volume of gasoline. This can vary according to a few factors, one of which it is nearly impossible to get all the water out of ethanol.
* So, a car with a 300 mi range on gasoline would be able to go 150mi running on straight eth.
* An auto running on E85 (15% gas + 85%eth =15% + 42.5% = 57.5% of the energy you'd expect from gasoline. Roughly a 40% loss in energy stored in the fuel tank)
* Oxegenated fuel (mandated by EPA or others) runs 2-10% eth. If it is 10%, expect 5% worse miles per gallon.
Clean97GTI said:
I think you'll find the solution to the big SUV problem is already here. Take a look at gas prices and car prices. As these numbers continue to climb, the number of SUVs will go down. Demand will dictate what cars Americans drive. GM could really help itself by dropping some new diesels into their SUV fleet. Such smart business decisions would be atypical of standard GM operating procedure.
Yeah, sorta. There are folks who can not operate without SUV functionality. They will eat fuel costs. Also, most folks who buy SUVs (need or not), can afford a pricey item. Increasing the fuel cost is negligible to TOC of the vehicle, unless you're driving a LOT of miles per year. Folks who buy a new SUV every 3 years are eating much more in depreciation than they will spend on the difference between $2/gal & $3/gal fuel.
Amen, on offering diesels in more SUVs, trucks, etc...esp 1/2 ton & compact trucks. I wish I coulda bought a diesel in my 1997 Nissan Ext Cab Pickup, way back in 1997. I get 20/26 MPG with a 2.4L gasser. I'd expect 26/35 MPG with a similar turbodiesel in the 135Kmiles I have driven.
Clean97GTI said:
Oh, and biodiesel can be produced in ways other than using old frying oil. There are a lot of oil seeds as well as possible algae farms that could supply demand.
Diesel first designed his engine to run on hempseed oil, if I recall. There is still not enough arable land to produce enough to satisfy America's demand. Also, what is produced is only economically viable if deisel gets a lot more expensive than current prices.
What is the deal with the algae farms? I never though algae produced much in the way of oil/fat/grease.
Clean97GTI said:
Its going to come down to technology and the money to sink into it.
I think I disagree. It will come down to the market. When oil looks to be pumping its last, other energy sources will step to the fore and then folks will invest in the technologies to exploit those energy sources
profitably.
The technology used in the late 19th/early 20th century to drill for oil had existed for hundreds of years. No one thought to do too much with it until whale oil became scarce & other products from refined oil found a profitable use. (FYI, naptha (gasoline) was usually dumped aside as waste before the advent of the otto cycle engine & the automobile became ubiquitous. Everyone wanted kerosene, machine oil, & grease.)
Malone said:
Well, some of us think it's a small price to pay to be able to breathe. This is as much a national security issue as a secure border.
Just how does it help, again? When ethanol is mixed in our fuel, we burn more eth & gasoline. Let us take it as a given that the oxygenates make it burn a teensy bit cleaner (a not inconsiderable granting of a point, considering how clean burning new autos are, nowadays...an example would be my Honda Element, which qualifies as a Kaliforny LEV). When burning that mixed fuel, more pollutants are expelled into the atmo than if the auto was running straight gasoline. The loss in fuel efficiency outweighs the beneficent effects of the oxygenate (eth). It is a bad deal for everybody excpet the eth industry.
That's why I call the oxygenate proponents schmucks. No real upside for the consumer or the enviro.
Nehemiah said:
What I get for this is that the reason for the spike is due to something regulatable by the industry, and it's their crappy planning that's making it happen.
(Or not so crappy planning, if you're inclined to believe that they're intentionally doing it.)
I think you're confusing the hazmat freight hauling industry with the petroleum industry. Yes, some petroleum companies own fleets of semis. Some even have tankers capable of hauling ethanol.
But most of their hauling capacity is hired out, as the oil companies are in the oil business, not the hauling business
Another twist is that hauling ethanol & other fuels requires a Hazmat license. If you have a felony, you can not get one. The proportion of folks who drive semis and do not have a felony is astonishingly small (Maybe I am easily astonished). So, we are short drivers to deliver ethanol. This shortage has induced some governors to relax driving restrictions on tanker truck drivers, allowing them to drive longer & with less shuteye.
This still does not address the shortage of trucks & tankers to haul ethanol.
Even if all hte drivers, trucks, & tankers were around to ensure speedy delivery of eth when the transition to boutique oxegenated fuel mixes occur in the spring, they would be idle 6 months of the year when those mixes are not mandated during the colder months.