The SHTF scenario that really make me nervous is civil unrest. You just play the hand you've got with an earthquake, storm, or flood, but crazy people bent on destruction seems way too dicey. When folks take on the mob mentality or are fueled by panic, the danger could be way too sporadic and volatile to predict a safe exit plan. Potential triggers for civil unrest could consist of controversial court decisions, sports victories or defeats, police brutality, sports hero mishaps, economic collapse affecting SSI checks, any old natural disaster, or a terrorist event. If the national guard or police is busy elsewhere, you would be on your own. That's SHTF to me. Fending off attacks from looters and arsonists could end up taking way more time than one person has. Working with the neighbors to maintain a safe perimeter would probably be the only way to insure your safety. You need to make sure someone is making food, filtering water, manning communications, maintaing defenses, etc as well as just duking it out with badguys. It really sounds like a suckfest.