Powder Price Spike

[CQB45ACP]

If you were an ammo manufacturer, would you want to sell 1 lb of powder @ a time to somebody complaining about the price, or would you want to sell 100 million loaded rounds to a government agency for twice what it would sell on the commercial market? I know what i would do.

I doubt that’s a real trade off (if you were implying it is).

Seems to me it would be like saying GM could produce and sell Chevy cars and Humvees at their current respective volume but couldn’t ramp up production of the latter without reducing the former.

edit: except of course GM doesn’t make the Humvee, but point is valid

 

[CQB45ACP]

The Russia/Ukraine conflict is sucking up large amounts of ammunition, components, and precursors too. We, (American civilians) are having to compete with Uncle Sugar who is using our money to buy up as much as they get their hands on to give to Ukraine- gratis.
Of course, some of that is relieving global ammunition supply pressure as Ukrainian (and Russian) troops resell it on the black market...

Do we have any real data to show what US manufacturers are supplying in the way of small arms ammo and it’s impact on the domestic market? I haven’t seen it but would like to.

But, even while not at “normal” levels, ammo & components are far more plentiful, and ammo less expensive, today than they were not too long after the pandemic began until the Russian mongrels (and I say that with all due respect) invaded Ukraine.

Now for sure I’ve noticed the supply of howitzer shells is way down But I don’t see the war’s impact on 9mm or 5.56.

edit: if my para 2 is unclear, more & cheaper ammo is available today DESPITE Russias invasion & USA support of Ukraine.

edit #2: according to this State Dept fact sheet we have given Ukraine “more than” 66,750,000 rounds of small arms ammo since January 2021. https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/
But this still doesn’t tell us anything about any negative effect on commercial domestic markets if any.

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

Not saying it’s easy just that it can be done. Nor cheap (but cheaper than human life).

And I don’t need to tell you there are lots of complex things automated today that folks never thought possible except the ones who did it.

I am constantly disappointed by the cavalier manner in which the talents, learning, ability and skill of the people who make things - other than converting clean air to hot air - are taken for granted. People are not pegs and manufacturing is not a pegboard of tasks for just any warm body to occupy. “Automation” does not simply just happen, on the free, for manufacturers to choose and pick. I say this as one of the guys who, almost 40 years ago, was making cables and connectors to mocked-up interfaces between workstation-class UNIX/CAD machines and CNC mills to speed up the programming process. No one had ever done that before. It was not cheap or easy - for those of us doing it.

 

[CQB45ACP]

I am constantly disappointed by the cavalier manner in which the talents, learning, ability and skill of the people who make things - other than converting clean air to hot air - are taken for granted. People are not pegs and manufacturing is not a pegboard of tasks for just any warm body to occupy. “Automation” does not simply just happen, on the free, for manufacturers to choose and pick. I say this as one of the guys who, almost 40 years ago, was making cables and connectors to mocked-up interfaces between workstation-class UNIX/CAD machines and CNC mills to speed up the programming process. No one had ever done that before. It was not cheap or easy - for those of us doing it.

If you think I was being cavalier or less than deferential enough to those who made it happen you’re mistaken. I called the doers visionary what more can I say? But I apologize for offending you.

My comment is simple observation of the past borne from experience—processes are now automated we never thought would be or could be except the people that did it. Show me where that’s wrong.

As for the future, the past tells us we will see even more things automated some of which today only a few can imagine.

But I also did not mention how many failures there were along the way that we now forget or ignore or are willing to overlook because the ultimate success is so amazing. But there were failures, many of them, anyway.

 

[ballman6711]

The price of powder has certainly gone up, even more so recently, but then so has everything else. I don't know why, but I suspect several reasons have caused the recent increases. One reason might be the increased availability of primers. Why would I buy powder if I don't have and can't get primers? But now they are becoming readily available, so maybe people need more powder.

Other reasons certainly exist, like the increase in fuel. Diesel is currently $5.29 here, and everything moves by truck. Years ago I went for a ride with a friend that drove a semi. It was just a day trip, and at the end of the day he put about 150 euros worth of fuel in the truck. That was over $200 after conversion, and that was just one days worth of fuel. So he needed to make $200 just to drive his truck that day, not counting what he needed to actually make a living wage for the day.

But I think that powder prices will level out, and even drop some, just like primers have. Not sure when it will happen, but I think it will.

And I will admit to getting caught a bit short when the shortages began. I started loading about 4-1/2 years ago and had no idea a "reloading shortage" could or would happen. At 55 years old I have seen plenty of shortages, but this one caught me off guard. Add to that I've started loading three new calibers since last summer, and have had to play catch up with them but now I'm set for awhile. If/when things change and prices drop I will stock up to where I can wait out the next shortage and price increase.

chris

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

Alfred Nobel blew up Stockholm twice till he figured that out. They still have a law that you cannot manufacture Dynamite within city limits.

This is absolutely true and cannot be emphasized enough. We do not live in a risk tolerant society. We live in a, “gimme, gimme” society where asking politely that someone work is insulting to the point of being criminal. Imagine St. Marks having a catastrophic failure and some innocent bystander is injured…
The media assassins and tort lawyers would just be the cheerleaders for the Federal response to eliminate the civilian possession of any and all things arms related.
Yes, powder prices are up. But to assume it’s scalping, profiteering, or a lack of robotics is very shortsighted. I guess the obvious answer - increasing costs of doing business - just isn’t satisfying.

 

[CQB45ACP]

This is absolutely true and cannot be emphasized enough. We do not live in a risk tolerant society. We live in a, “gimme, gimme” society where asking politely that someone work is insulting to the point of being criminal. Imagine St. Marks having a catastrophic failure and some innocent bystander is injured…
The media assassins and tort lawyers would just be the cheerleaders for the Federal response to eliminate the civilian possession of any and all things arms related.
Yes, powder prices are up. But to assume it’s scalping, profiteering, or a lack of robotics is very shortsighted. I guess the obvious answer - increasing costs of doing business - just isn’t satisfying.

My turn. Lawyers, lawyers, lawyers. Always the lawyers. We are the lawyers and the lawyers are us.

When we vote we get laws because that’s what we voted for. They are in turn written by and implemented by lawyers.

We want laws to require this or prohibit that or vice versa. And we want them until we don’t.

The lawyers are no more or less the problem than are we. Because they are us.

 

[Bartojc]

In relationship to what loaded factory ammo is these days the price of components seems on par. The days of $9.99/50 9mm seems gone as well at least for now.

Do I like paying the newer prices, heck no. If I want to shoot though that is the cost of doing it. Or it least it will be going forward depending on my stock.
I don't like $4.25 gas either but if I want to drive anywhere that is the cost.

-Jeff

 

[GeoDudeFlorida]

My turn. Lawyers, lawyers, lawyers. Always the lawyers. We are the lawyers and the lawyers are us.

When we vote we get laws because that’s what we voted for. They are in turn written by and implemented by lawyers.

We want laws to require this or prohibit that or vice versa. And we want them until we don’t.

The lawyers are no more or less the problem than are we. Because they are us.

Typical. Pluck a word from a paragraph and make it the only thing stated.
Nope. Risk and the cost of doing business are the point. The threat of a massive cost over decades resulting from a series of tort cases is just one risk and only one cost but it’s a big risk and a big cost. But never mind all of that. It’s the evil price hikers trying to pad their pockets. Sure. And everyone complaining worked for free their whole lives. Right.
Powder prices will settle on a price agreed upon by the seller and buyer. If the price is more than someone is willing to pay then they will do without. Complaining and blaming buys nothing.

 

[CQB45ACP]

Typical. Pluck a word from a paragraph and make it the only thing stated.
Nope. Risk and the cost of doing business are the point. The threat of a massive cost over decades resulting from a series of tort cases is just one risk and only one cost but it’s a big risk and a big cost. But never mind all of that. It’s the evil price hikers trying to pad their pockets. Sure. And everyone complaining worked for free their whole lives. Right.
Powder prices will settle on a price agreed upon by the seller and buyer. If the price is more than someone is willing to pay then they will do without. Complaining and blaming buys nothing.

You got up on the wrong side of the bed obviously.

For me, it simply began as an observation (from 30K feet) regarding automation. How that turned into an offense against programmers I’ll probably never know.

But, still appreciate you.

 

[Varminterror]

@CQB45ACP - much of my career has been in manufacturing process innovations, which inevitably includes automation technology projects such as what you describe.

Much of those systems would already be quite automated - mixers, batch weighers and bulk loaders, dryers, etc. However, knowing a bit about the chemical composition and therefore speculating the margins, I can relate my own experiences in manufacturing technology value engineering - “robotics” as a blanket solution is a very 1970s & 1980s-esque vision. Post-WWII industrial revolution and the era of the Jetson’s really threw folks into a mindset of “robots will solve everything,” chased by the renovation of Detroit and auto manufacturing. And naturally, sci-fi predictions running ahead of the industry with movies like the Terminator series in which automation innovation ran so quickly we couldn’t even keep up as a species…

But reality in industry is much less sexy… As an example, MOST manufacturing automation projects which are proffered never come to realization, simply because the market will not tolerate the extreme product cost increases which must accompany such process upgrades. As a scalar, most projects don’t move forward if payback isn’t realized within 2 years - whereas some of the manual labor risk displacement projects (“robotics projects”) I have had proposed to me have ended up with 30-80 year paybacks… meaning they literally would never payback, as the life of the machines, life of the products they’d make, and even the MARKET for the products weren’t long enough to ever pay back the investment and operation cost. I led a project a few years ago which would replace 140 workers (of which we could only reliably staff about 65-80 at any time, meaning the production targets were being missed and EXTREME overtime costs were being paid). Even overpaying relative to the regional market by 30%, we couldn’t fill our production floor… so our robotics project totaled over $185 million, and would have taken over 20yrs to payback, with the robots needing maintenance effectively re-buying the project every 10yrs… some of the project survived, largely in a pack & stack portion of the plant, but the rest of the project was scrubbed… cheaper to pay double overtime on top of 30% over market wages on labor than to buy the robots to replace them…

 

[CQB45ACP]

@CQB45ACP - much of my career has been in manufacturing process innovations, which inevitably includes automation technology projects such as what you describe.

Much of those systems would already be quite automated - mixers, batch weighers and bulk loaders, dryers, etc. However, knowing a bit about the chemical composition and therefore speculating the margins, I can relate my own experiences in manufacturing technology value engineering - “robotics” as a blanket solution is a very 1970s & 1980s-esque vision. Post-WWII industrial revolution and the era of the Jetson’s really threw folks into a mindset of “robots will solve everything,” chased by the renovation of Detroit and auto manufacturing. And naturally, sci-fi predictions running ahead of the industry with movies like the Terminator series in which automation innovation ran so quickly we couldn’t even keep up as a species…

But reality in industry is much less sexy… As an example, MOST manufacturing automation projects which are proffered never come to realization, simply because the market will not tolerate the extreme product cost increases which must accompany such process upgrades. As a scalar, most projects don’t move forward if payback isn’t realized within 2 years - whereas some of the manual labor risk displacement projects (“robotics projects”) I have had proposed to me have ended up with 30-80 year paybacks… meaning they literally would never payback, as the life of the machines, life of the products they’d make, and even the MARKET for the products weren’t long enough to ever pay back the investment and operation cost. I led a project a few years ago which would replace 140 workers (of which we could only reliably staff about 65-80 at any time, meaning the production targets were being missed and EXTREME overtime costs were being paid). Even overpaying relative to the regional market by 30%, we couldn’t fill our production floor… so our robotics project totaled over $185 million, and would have taken over 20yrs to payback, with the robots needing maintenance effectively re-buying the project every 10yrs… some of the project survived, largely in a pack & stack portion of the plant, but the rest of the project was scrubbed… cheaper to pay double overtime on top of 30% over market wages on labor than to buy the robots to replace them…

Interesting and informative both this and info from @GeoDudeFlorida. I never doubted there was “the rest of the story” as Paul Harvey’s bit would conclude. Thanks

 

[Walkalong]

Glad we got that settled