Sierra Bullets take on the .22 LR shortage.

[22-rimfire]

Deaf Smith, I suspect you are right in that 22LR guns are not selling as well and it is probably likely due to the ammunition shortage. A new shooter might be hesitant to buy a 22 rifle when they can't even buy ammunition for said gun except at scalper prices.

If I were in the market (and I suspect that I am almost always in the market), I look at the asking price on guns and shops that price at suggested retail or above do not get my business at all. The key there is knowing suggested retail at a minimum. Once I learn their pricing tendancies, I stop going. By the same token, I might go into a Bass Pro type store and everything other than guns are pretty much full retail unless it is "on sale". But I know that going in.

 

[Sam1911]

Well maybe we all need to send letters to gun manufactures.

No ammo, we buy no guns.

Then maybe eyes will open (since pocketbooks will be hurt) and they decide to buy their own ammo company to take control of the supplies needed for them to sell guns.

Uh............ so, when the ammo companies are working round-the-clock shifts, and several have announced they are indeed expanding their operations to put more ammo on the market -- which takes a lot of time and about $30,000,000 to do -- exactly WHAT ammo company are the firearms companies supposed to go buy?

You realize that to go "buy there own ammo company" there would have to BE an ammo company out there that's for sale, and for it to make ANY difference AT ALL to the supply of ammo, that company would have to be currently sitting idle or at low production, and we know that's not the situation.

Or they'd have to purchase the land, pay the surveyors, architects, engineers, and designers to develop a plant for them, pay for buildings, hire staff, buy production equipment (which is already in extreme demand), and do all the other things that the ammo companies are already trying to do now.

 

[CraigC]

I cant believe people go through a brick each outing

Back before the shortages, I did this regularly. I was going through 2000-3000rds a month and most of that through revolvers. To me, even now, a 50rd session is not even worth the effort.

In a few years 22 LR will become a pistol cartridge only for any new guns. The 17 HMR will take it's place as an inexpensive rimfire rifle cartridge.

That is laughable and has no basis in reality.

I don't have a crystal ball but it looks to me like several companies see the 22 LR falling behind in the future.

They can't keep up with demand and you think it's going to decline? At what school did you learn this logic???

I'm not a 22 shooter so I don't know a lot about the situation as it stands.

That's very obvious.

Ruger owns CCI

Well at least Winchester owns Winchester and Remington owns Remington!

Where does stuff like this even come from???

One of the principles that guides my life is that I do not take advantage of people economically even when I can and they would not know the difference.

So you have a problem with selling something to someone at a price they're willing to pay? I guess you object to auctions then, huh? Or anywhere else where the market determines the cost? I'm sorry but this makes absolutely no sense.

 

[CraigC]

Then maybe eyes will open (since pocketbooks will be hurt) and they decide to buy their own ammo company to take control of the supplies needed for them to sell guns.

People act as if the ammo/firearms manufacturers are conspiring against them. They are not to blame, it's your fellow shooter who buys every brick of .22 ammo they find. In essence, "WE" are responsible for the shortage.

Sorry but this is a temporary shortage and it makes no sense to go to a lot of effort and expense of building/buying new ammunition plants to fill a temporary need. It's the Chicken Little mentality in both instances.

You realize that to go "buy there own ammo company" there would have to BE an ammo company out there that's for sale, and for it to make ANY difference AT ALL to the supply of ammo, that company would have to be currently sitting idle or at low production, and we know that's not the situation.

Didn't you hear, there's one on every corner. They started going up on every corner where there's a Lowe's/Home Depot, Walgreen's/CVS, or McDonald's/Burger King. You can't throw a rock and not hit an idle, yet fully functioning rimfire ammunition factory.

Sorry folks but the kind of logic (or lack thereof) we see in threads like this are the exact reason why there's a shortage in the first place. Ponder that for a minute.

 

[Sam1911]

I look at the asking price on guns and shops that price at suggested retail or above do not get my business at all.

And that's a great choice! If you really don't care whether you get a particular gun or not.

If you want something that's in high demand, you pay the market price to get it. You may find a bit of a deal somewhere, of course, and it does pay to shop around. But if you just won't pay more than MSRP, then there are some guns that simply won't be yours. If the demand is high, there are plenty of buyers willing to pay more money to have that gun. The stores will (and SHOULD) sell to those buyers at the prices those buyers are willing to pay. That means the stores make money and stay in business.

If you don't really need that gun very much, just wait. Eventually all the folks who want them enough to pay more will have bought them and then the price will start to fall. In a few years you'll be able to buy one at "your" price.


...

Now, if you see a shop mark up a gun or ammo to what they think the market price is, and you then refuse to ever shop there again, the only person you're hurting is yourself. They're smart businessmen, and you're acting petulantly to no benefit. You should be applauding their efforts to be a successful business. If they mark up a gun to some price you think is too high, but they sell that gun at that price -- THEY WERE RIGHT! (And, to be truthful...you were wrong. It WAS worth that much, to the only person who matters ... the buyer.)

The more money the can make, the more stability they'll have through lean times, the more inventory they can purchase, the more guns they'll have for you to look at, and ultimately, the longer they'll be in business. You can refuse to ever shop there because something wasn't priced at the price YOU wanted to pay for it, but that's not a very educated or mature view of how business works.

 

[22-rimfire]

Sam, isn't that the truth of it. (except for the "wrong part" of your post) The reality is that I don't need any more firearms. I haven't really needed a new firearm in 20 years but that never stopped me. I can be rather selective as to where I spend my money and if some one gets under my skin because of their pricing, than I avoid that business. I might well spend the same amount at another business just out of spite. I don't consider that to be hurting myself at all, but rather an exercise in retail or my psychology.

CraigC, you're right, I don't care much for auctions. They work well for used and collector grade firearms.

 

[CraigC]

Auctions are the purest example of the free market at work.

 

[22-rimfire]

I agree that auctions are some of the purest forms of capitalism or the free market.

Until the advent of internet based gun auctions, I only thought of auctions as something that happens when people are forced to sell their property, sold repo'd cars to mostly dealers, or antiques to mostly dealers. Ebay changed all of this and was a revolution in thought.

I used to participate a lot in fleabay auctions with things like gun boxes, publications, old firearm catalogs, and so forth, but have since gotten my fill. I actually have quite a collection of Colt literature.

I might add that those collections will be sold eventually at market prices and probably through an auction. No, I don't see that as taking advantage of someone at all. But when you can "normally" go to Walmart and pick up a brick of 22 ammo for $25 or less, I can't see paying somebody else's market prices for them. It is a matter of selling something that is or should be commonly available versus something that is uncommonly available. Right now, 22 ammunition seems to be falling into the uncommonly available grouping. I'll wait years if necessary. But, if I really needed some tomorrow, I would pay the $50 gunshow price to feed my habit if necessary.

 

[Pointshoot]

@hardheart - - - interesting analysis, thank you. Something I would expect to see on Zerohedge, rather than here.

One reason for manufacturers to consider 22 rimfire is to look at the demographics of their customers. Their average age is increasing. They need to bring in new customers. The perfect and usual introduction for young people (and many adults) into shooting is the 'lowly' 22 LR. Not too much noise, and no recoil. Shooter friendly. And, previously, easy to find and cheap to shoot. -
Beyond creating future customers, is the political environment. People who have actually had a chance to go out shooting with a responsible and friendly firearms owner, a person just like themselves, are less likely to have negative attitudes regarding guns.

Time for the manufacturers to think longer term. The American auto industry failed to do that and look what it did to that industry. Perhaps even if a 'loss leader', it would serve them well to bring the new rimfire production online a.s.a.p. Manufacturers aren't just losing rimfire business, they may be losing future customers and future voters.

 

[Sam1911]

Pointshoot, I see where you're coming from there, but consider this: As we've been discussing in the current thread on the future of the 2nd Amendment, the demographics of the shooting population have been shifting for a long time. The hunting and plinking crowd has started taking a back-seat position to the defensive and practical/tactical/action shooting population.

I run into more and more of those shooters all the time who don't own a .22 and sometime who've never shot one. I've even seen folks mention that HERE, that they've got no interest in .22s. They started with 9mm, or 5.56mm, or .40 or whatever because their interests were in a defensive carry gun, or USPSA, or they (like a million other folks in the last few years) they decided they should buy an AR-15 as their first gun, etc.,etc.

So, while .22 is never a bad answer to the question of starting someone out in shooting, it doesn't hold the lock that perhaps it once did. Yes, the manufacturers need to cover the LONG TERM ammo demand curve (though not necessarily today's "bubble" demand), but there's really plenty of .22 out there for sale now, just a bit higher priced than before. That doesn't seem like a situation which will lose us future shooters and voters.

Those voters and shooters will just perhaps be a little less likely to blow off 500 rounds at a sitting because it's so "cheap."

 

[22-rimfire]

More shooters are choosing higher powered firearms than 22's these days. I see the reasons as being often related to their personal finances and these shooters or buyers are often buying for the self defense purpose rather than to take their firearm to the woods or range and blast a bunch of ammunition up on various plinking targets like many do or did with 22 rimfire. Most are really not shooting very often at all and feel if they can hit a target at 5-7 feet, it's good enough. But as a person interested in the future of shooting as a sport or hobby, I take every one of these buyers into the sport as things do change over time. What was once a gun that sat in the night stand for years, may turn into a favorite shooter later on and fuel additional purchases of firearms and participation in the sport.

 

[Pointshoot]

@Sam1911 - I agree that a lot of adult shooters are coming to this through self defense concerns & needs. Fewer are coming in from hunting. But there has been a long time effort to propagandize the next generation regarding firearms and the 2A. We need to turn those kids into shooting enthusiasts before they start thinking about guns in terms of self defense.

For example, I took an NRA Firearm Safety and Marksmanship course while in grade school. It was offered through a local family activities organization. Shooting our 22 target rifles was something that we kids found fun to do. I later hunted as a kid and as a teen. Didn't really think of firearms in terms of self defense until I was a young adult. I had many years of positive firearms experiences before that.
None of us are ammo industry insiders (I don't think so anyway). I don't know what the low down is on 22 rimfire ammo. But I hope that the manufacturers would look at this as a longer term priority. Some claim 'we the ammo buyers are the problem - we're buying up ammo by the caseload'. Well, any place where I've found .22 rimfire, you can only get a few boxes. Maybe about 150 rds of 22LR at the most. Retailers aren't allowing people to come in and buy out their stock. To me, this points to the need to increase & invest in more production. This is especially so when the severe shortages across the country have gone on for 2 years. Regards, -

 

[Sam1911]

Well, any place where I've found .22 rimfire, you can only get a few boxes. Maybe about 150 rds of 22LR at the most.

With the places that sell it by the brick and limit you to three, that would be more like 1,500+ at a time. But still, not like buying whole cases of ammo that I've seen.
Still, though, when lots of shooters are buying all the .22 LR they see, anywhere, and are actively looking for it multiple times a week, it sure isn't hard to see where it all goes.

To me, this points to the need to increase & invest in more production. This is especially so when the severe shortages across the country have gone on for 2 years. Regards, -

And, seeing as several manufacturers have indeed announced that they are increasing their production facilities, I think we'll see an easing as new production comes on line.

 

[22-rimfire]

You know, the prevalence of buying bulk packs may indeed be part of the problem from a retail inventory and manufacturing point of view. The manufacturers can only produce so many rounds and I assume it is less expensive to place them in loose bulk packs. But bulk packs essentially train buyers to think in terms of 525 or 550 rounds (Federal). When 22LR was plentiful, the big retailers had lots and these bulk packs made a lot of sense. But with a reduced supply, sellers (often with box limits), and abundant buyers, maybe they should go back to 50 and 100 ct boxes.

When I was younger, buying an entire brick (500 rounds) was considered a lot of 22 ammo. Now not so much.

I agree that folks straying away from 22LR may not be good for the sport when the primary focus is self defense. They miss a lot of opportunity to have fun at low cost and develop better shooting habits.

 

[Pointshoot]

No bricks in my area for a very long time. Yes, when we can find them, its limited to about 2-3 boxes of 50 rounds, not 1500 rounds. Maybe its different where you guys are.
I could get bricks for high GunBroker prices + shipping costs, but I don't want to do that.

Maybe the supply situation isn't as tight in other places ?


P.S. - I don't know what I was thinking. SH was in Dec 2012. Less than a year & a half ago. Some how the time seems much longer. No, that's not a lot of time to invest in & increase production capacity.

 

[itsa pain]

If you reload .357 and have seen the prices lately of .22 ammo, it's kinda a wash. This is what I was saying in my first post in this thread. I be damned if I'll pay $10 for 50 rounds of .22 when I can shoot my 686s and lever carbines chambered in handgun calibers for less. 500 rounds in an outing, whether it's .22 or .357 is not that many. I regularly shoot 500 rounds of various calibers in a single outing. Many times if both boys go along, even more. That's only a coupla hours worth of ammo, and if you reload, is not any more than taking the family to the movies.

Reloading components are just as hard to get as 22 ammo. Oh I forgot you have to stockpile. I do roofing framing siding etc. So what I have to do is get warehouses and stock lumber shingles siding nails etc. But wait there is no shortage of any of it even though millions of tons were used and are still being used. There is more to this then what we are being fed

 

[AfghanVetOrcutt]

Stop paying stupid prices and prices will go down. Simple economics, supply and demand. If there is no demand for it at $0.12/round the manufacturers will lower the price to sell it.

 

[Pointshoot]

AfghanVetOrcutt: "Stop paying stupid prices and prices will go down. Simple economics, supply and demand. If there is no demand for it at $0.12/round the manufacturers will lower the price to sell it."

I don't know if the manufacturers are getting the extra money, or if its just going to resellers. In either case, I got a pellet rifle so I could shoot for about a penny and a half per round. I shoot targets with it at 100 yards and a little past that. Its a good challenge, especially when there's a breeze out. Plus I can shoot it whenever I want, right on my own place with no concerns. Trigger time is good time.

 

[hardheart]

@hardheart - - - interesting analysis, thank you. Something I would expect to see on Zerohedge, rather than here.

Thanks.

What too many shoppers say in too much defense of sellers is, thankfully, too far removed from what successful business owners practice. That is because the savvy sellers understand that consumers do not shop to support them, they shop to support themselves. The product has to be worth as much, or more, than the money they are asking the consumer to part with. And consumers are not forking over cash as a form of charity, or to put food on the table of the salesman, they are exchanging money for something they perceive at the time of purchase to be at least as valuable as the money they are spending. They don't care about profit for the store, they care about consumer benefit. It's why calling Wal-Mart dumb for not selling at the so-called market price for ammo does not really make Wal-Mart look so bad, because they are demonstrably very good at setting prices and moving inventory.

And no, I don't want more money to flow into the industry if it doesn't mean I get to receive more choices down the road. Why pay more for 22 when it doesn't change the quality or selection of 22 in the long run, especially since the justification for a price hike seems squarely laid at the LGS by most, and not to raise prices at the production level? I can do other things with the money that benefits me. I don't get more than a nickel's worth of benefit every time a 22 goes down range.

 

[Agsalaska]

Agsalaska, the price has adjusted at some gunshops for the most part. That's one of the reasons I refuse to do business with them. One of the principles that guides my life is that I do not take advantage of people economically even when I can and they would not know the difference.

I know this type of reasoning is out there but it doesn't make any sense to me at all. Allowing prices to float to meet changes in demand has absolutely nothing to do with taking advantage of people.

I want you to do me a favor. I want you to never buy an item on sale.

 

[HexHead]

And that's a great choice! If you really don't care whether you get a particular gun or not.

If you want something that's in high demand, you pay the market price to get it. You may find a bit of a deal somewhere, of course, and it does pay to shop around. But if you just won't pay more than MSRP, then there are some guns that simply won't be yours. If the demand is high, there are plenty of buyers willing to pay more money to have that gun. The stores will (and SHOULD) sell to those buyers at the prices those buyers are willing to pay. That means the stores make money and stay in business.

If you don't really need that gun very much, just wait. Eventually all the folks who want them enough to pay more will have bought them and then the price will start to fall. In a few years you'll be able to buy one at "your" price.


...

Now, if you see a shop mark up a gun or ammo to what they think the market price is, and you then refuse to ever shop there again, the only person you're hurting is yourself. They're smart businessmen, and you're acting petulantly to no benefit. You should be applauding their efforts to be a successful business. If they mark up a gun to some price you think is too high, but they sell that gun at that price -- THEY WERE RIGHT! (And, to be truthful...you were wrong. It WAS worth that much, to the only person who matters ... the buyer.)

The more money the can make, the more stability they'll have through lean times, the more inventory they can purchase, the more guns they'll have for you to look at, and ultimately, the longer they'll be in business. You can refuse to ever shop there because something wasn't priced at the price YOU wanted to pay for it, but that's not a very educated or mature view of how business works.

Excellent analysis. Why shouldn't a retailer mark up an item they don't know if, when and for how much they'll be able to replace it? Especially when they can't keep it in stock at their price?

 

[Skylerbone]

I don't get more than a nickel's worth of benefit every time a 22 goes down range.

There it is again, perception of benefit. Guys are paying $35 for a box of SuperFormance in .308 for 20 rounds and are fine with it. I pay .08/round for what was .07/round pre-panic and I'm the one shooting overpriced ammo. Now I know that's not what hardheart is saying but that's the din from several other posters. I enjoy shooting my rimfires. I am more than satisfied with the cost to benefit ratio of the ammo I purchase. I'm not guaranteed a single second on this marble and I darn sure ain't gonna sit around waiting to do what I enjoy or be pushed to another caliber with more perceived value. Every shot is one hole, regardless of size. It matters not to the target, only in the field and for hunting my want of .22 exceeds all other calibers combined. Because my children love shooting and aren't big enough for centerfire the reasons keep adding up.

MidWayUSA:
Aguila Super Extra 40gr. $39.95/500
Aguila Match Rifle 40gr. $54.95/500 (ordered on two occasions)
Aguila Match Pistol 40gr. $54.95/500

Palmetto State:
CCI SV 40gr. $48/500

All of that ammo ordered in the past month, all of it in stock for 3 days or more. It's a few clicks away from being delivered along with other supplies I need and in the case of Midway, I got $15 off those prices with a coupon. When calculated as a percentage of the minimum required order, I paid under $44/brick for match ammo and $32/brick for target grade. 6.4 cents/round for answering an email notification. Blame me as a buyer if you like but I'm the one going to the range.

 

[hardheart]

There it is again, perception of benefit.

That's because it is the only reason anyone ever buys anything. The rest of your post is your explanation of the benefit you receive from 22. It is higher than mine, therefore you are willing to pay more. It still comes down to how much a .22 caliber hole means to you.

 

[Skylerbone]

Don't misunderstand me, hardheart, I agree with what you wrote, something my own writing may have failed to convey. The main contention was that .06/round for far better than Thunderterds has me happily shelling out. I don't consider myself a hoarder as I've given away more than 3,000 rounds in the past 18 months and what little I traded was to my LGS for what he deemed a fair price. That ammo was Velocitor and Quiet which performed poorly from my rifles and I felt sitting on the better part of 2 bricks during a shortage was foolish. The 3,000 rounds referenced went to friends or fellow shooters (strangers) at a private club along with tips on buying online.

 

[buck460XVR]

Arguing amongst ourselves about the price and value of .22 ammo just verifies what the article by Sierra was trying to say. We gun owners are sometimes our own worst enemy. The shooting world is experiencing a similar situation with ammo that occurred years ago with gas supplies. Like gas in the 70s, ammo, up till around 2008 was plentiful and relatively cheap. A dramatic change in driving/shooting habits, plus changes in the political climate and what was once a glut turned into long lines and high prices. Like gas, prices on ammo, especially .22 ammo will level out at a higher level as demand levels out a lower level. Like gas, the supply will come back, but the prices won't.