Sierra Bullets take on the .22 LR shortage.

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Too, the idea of 22 LR becoming "obsolete" in favor of the .17hmr is laughable, due to the sheer numbers involved. It would take decades of people buying .17's over 22's for their number to EVER come close to matching the number of .22 LR firearms out in the real world at this very moment.

You could be right, It may not be the 17HMR that shows up the winner in the rimfire horse race right now. I'm not a 22 shooter so I don't know a lot about the situation as it stands. I do know that 22LR is very hard to find and 17WSM isn't even on the radar where I live. So I guess when it comes down to walking into your LGS and buying a rimfire and ammo at the same time right now that would be a 17HMR.

I don't have a crystal ball but it looks to me like several companies see the 22 LR falling behind in the future. I have to agree that it is over rated and ammo is over priced. I have a Ruger MKII that I'm going to gift to relative because I don't shoot it anymore at these prices.
 
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Keep your Mark II. Great 22 pistol. Not a thing wrong with the 17 HMR by the way. It is just more costly than 22LR for general shooting. That brings it into a hunting cartridge for me.

The 17 WSM is a great concept and has better ballistics than the 17 HMR. A few years back I was all into wanting a 5mm rimfire as I thought at least several companies would begin to manufacture new rifles in that caliber. But that seems to have been a pipe dream. I have seen a few boxes of 17 WSM around in stores. I, of course, opened up a box to take a look at a cartridge.

The 22 Mag wins in terms of killing power with larger sized game (coyotes and such) at modest ranges. The 17 HMR is a better 150 yd caliber though, but on smaller bodied animals. The 17 HMR will typically group better than most 22 mag rifles.

During the last shortage, you could always find 22 mag around. Not this time. I have had at least one person offer to send me some 22 mag, but I actually have a cache of that stuff too along with 22LR. Not as many rounds by any means, but I don't shoot it like I might 22LR either. I view the 22 mag more of a resource caliber for me now since I do not shoot varmints or I don't do it with any frequency. I'd like to, but finding a place to hunt is difficult and I don't want to drive 3 hours just to shoot a groundhog. It is a matter of economics for me.

Maybe I am not the shooter I used to be.... I do drive fair distances to trout fish, but I don't apply the same logic to hunting or shooting any more.
 
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You can think of all the reasons for the shortage but it is a disgrace that this country even has a problem like this. It revolves around idiotic business forecasts and the type of people around nowadays
 
Any squirrel hunter can tell you why the .22 isn't going away. Once the shortage subsides and companies start producing .22short again I'll be dedicating one of my squirrel rigs for it exclusively to mitigate noise, the biggest factor as to why I own nearly a dozen rifles chambered for the .22 and zero in .17. The other major reason...anyone shoot .17 Aguila? Far too many players in an as yet undetermined battle that has already shed calibers on a very short timeline.

Of late I've seen a good deal more selection and avilability of .22lr online than last year with more of it sticking around for days at decent prices rather than being sold out in minutes. As for not ordering in bulk to curb the shortage, thread after thread in the archives here will show the opposite advice being dispensed. Buy in bulk to save on price or shipping, you can always store it. If I can find another half-dozen bricks of what I want, I'll happily shoot 6-8 bricks before hunting season, most of it from bolt actions and single-shots.
 
In a few years 22 LR will become a pistol cartridge only for any new guns. The 17 HMR will take it's place as an inexpensive rimfire rifle cartridge. Prices will come down as more rifles and ammo are sold. I predict that they will eventually be much lower than current 22 LR prices.

LOL. I don't think so. For starters the 17 HMR doesn't serve the same purpose as the 22LR. There are a LOT of 22LR rifles that will want to be fed.

I recently auctioned some of my 22LR inventory (all bought before 2008, mind you). I got some prices that amazed me, but none of it went for more than what 17HMR costs at retail.

I was at my LGS last week and they had a large stack of 17 HMR. All those hoarders and scalpers better start dumping some ammo soon because that inflated market isn't going to be there forever.

I agree. 22 supply will improve and prices will drop. OTOH, 17 HMR isn't going to get any cheaper than it is now.
 
"I have shot 500 .357's outta a revolver in one outing. Shooting a brick of .22lr outta a semi pistol dinging steel swingers ain't hard to do."

You've got more money than me :)
 
"I have shot 500 .357's outta a revolver in one outing. Shooting a brick of .22lr outta a semi pistol dinging steel swingers ain't hard to do."

You've got more money than me :)


If you reload .357 and have seen the prices lately of .22 ammo, it's kinda a wash. This is what I was saying in my first post in this thread. I be damned if I'll pay $10 for 50 rounds of .22 when I can shoot my 686s and lever carbines chambered in handgun calibers for less. 500 rounds in an outing, whether it's .22 or .357 is not that many. I regularly shoot 500 rounds of various calibers in a single outing. Many times if both boys go along, even more. That's only a coupla hours worth of ammo, and if you reload, is not any more than taking the family to the movies.
 
Keep your Mark II. Great 22 pistol. Not a thing wrong with the 17 HMR by the way. It is just more costly than 22LR for general shooting. That brings it into a hunting cartridge for me.

The 17 WSM is a great concept and has better ballistics than the 17 HMR. A few years back I was all into wanting a 5mm rimfire as I thought at least several companies would begin to manufacture new rifles in that caliber. But that seems to have been a pipe dream. I have seen a few boxes of 17 WSM around in stores. I, of course, opened up a box to take a look at a cartridge.

The 22 Mag wins in terms of killing power with larger sized game (coyotes and such) at modest ranges. The 17 HMR is a better 150 yd caliber though, but on smaller bodied animals. The 17 HMR will typically group better than most 22 mag rifles.

During the last shortage, you could always find 22 mag around. Not this time. I have had at least one person offer to send me some 22 mag, but I actually have a cache of that stuff too along with 22LR. Not as many rounds by any means, but I don't shoot it like I might 22LR either. I view the 22 mag more of a resource caliber for me now since I do not shoot varmints or I don't do it with any frequency. I'd like to, but finding a place to hunt is difficult and I don't want to drive 3 hours just to shoot a groundhog. It is a matter of economics for me.

Maybe I am not the shooter I used to be.... I do drive fair distances to trout fish, but I don't apply the same logic to hunting or shooting any more.

The 22 mag shortage must be worse than the 22LR shortage. I had a customer in Louisiana ask me to make a local purchase for him in WA and he was going to pay me for my expenses plus if I would ship it to him. Never heard of anything like that.

I used to drive 6 hours to bird hunt but don't anymore now that I'm retired. So like you I just drive down the road a few miles and fish. I finally realized that I can catch salmon for a few bucks where it was costing me hundreds of dollars to hunt birds.
 
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If you reload .357 and have seen the prices lately of .22 ammo, it's kinda a wash. This is what I was saying in my first post in this thread. I be damned if I'll pay $10 for 50 rounds of .22 when I can shoot my 686s and lever carbines chambered in handgun calibers for less. 500 rounds in an outing, whether it's .22 or .357 is not that many. I regularly shoot 500 rounds of various calibers in a single outing. Many times if both boys go along, even more. That's only a coupla hours worth of ammo, and if you reload, is not any more than taking the family to the movies.

That is my point also.

I load 38 for plinking and I'm down to about $15/100. If I were a squirrel hunter I would be using a shotgun. I think a 20 ga makes a better small game gun than a 22LR. A person doesn't use a lot of ammo hunting so the majority of 22LR is being burned up on targets. So I have to ask myself, would I rather plink with a 38 or a 22. No doubt in my mind there.
 
The only 22LR I will currently pay $10 for a box of 50 is target grade stuff and that wouldn't be considered high end target 22 ammunition. It just depends on what you're shooting and why you're shooting.

I used to consider regular HV CCI 22LR "high end" at about $7.00 or $8.00/100 ct box. Times have changed a bit. Can't find any of that local either and I don't try real hard as I have a fair amount on hand along with a couple cases of CCI SV.
 
That is the core of the problem IMO. The ammo companies have little to gain as long as people pay more for what they make their profits stay high. But at some point some company will take advantage of a booming market and make a fortune doing it. That's how little companies become huge companies. And people act like it isn't in the best interest of the ammo companies to buy new equipment. It won't dry up and blow away if the panic ends. Demand is going to be high because a lot of people have gotten into shooting thanks to Obama. Sure it looks bad on a quarterly expense report but that's the biggest problem US companies have IMO. They look at the next quarter when they should look at the next quarter of a century. Their old equipment will wear out eventually and they will have new equipment even if demand drops off and they don't happen to pay for that equipment in a big hurry.

If the demand is really there then some oriental company is going to step up and take over the market by actually supplying people with ammo. Then the US companies will have a giant producer to compete against. Does anyone really think that the Chinese would hesitate to jump into a new market like the current situation? We have restrictions on buying ammo from them or they likely would have done it already.

The thing about supply and demand is that there are two ways prices can go down. Demand can go down or supplies can go up. And there is lots of room to make lots of money by investing in the ammo making business.

Let's look at the bottled water industry. There were 100 companies selling water in bottles just out of the blue. They didn't just go fill those bottles n a river. They had to invest in production. And it paid off big time for them. Many would have argued that the demand would drop eventually. It didn't. There are many profitable companies selling bottled water now including the traditional big drink bottling companies (Coke and Pepsi). Companies took a risk on something that was actually a lot less likely to maintain the level of demand. After all we all have a source of water or we would be dead. We sure didn't need it to be bottled in plants and sold in gas stations. But that's exactly what happened. Some companies invested heavily into bottling plants.

If companies took a risk on something that seemed ridiculous to many and made it pay off they can certainly take a risk on something that seems likely to pay off quickly. I don't buy that they're so scared to invest in new equipment. Someone can build a huge new plant and make money on it IMO. Is it a sure thing? Very few things are. Bottled water certainly wasn't but I'd like to own a chunk of one of the new companies that put water in a bottle and charged a buck fifty for it.
But the ammo companies are only raising their wholesale prices the usual 3% to 4%.
 
Increases in price signal competitors to enter the market, as demand has exceeded the current supply curve. Additonal production would shift the supply curve to the right as well, leading to a new equilibrium of both a higher total quantity sold and a lower price per unit. In the long run the assets are indifferent, so there would be no sustained economic profit. In other words, if 22LR is making a whole lot more money, then other businesses would start to make 22LR to get some of it, and the more 22LR on the shelves, the lower the price will eventually be due to price competition. That's why additional revenue now would drive down the price later, through increased supply, not souring people on expensive ammo.

Perhaps that is why prices aren't going up, the manufacturers do not want to signal competitors. Looking at ATK's annual report for last year, most of their revenue comes from government sales, and sporting as a whole was about a quarter. They also indicate that orders from the sporting section are considered a risk, as they believe the quantities exceeded true demand. With environmental and safety concerns with production, this can all add up to minimal growth, as they perhaps feel they cannot reliably anticipate future demand and hidden costs associated with expansion. They also have a considerable amount of debt already, so gambling too far with commercial ammunition may not be in the cards. But reinstatement of existing productiont capacity should help a bit.
It is extremely expensive to start up manufacturing .22. There are only 3 manufacturers in the US: Remington, Olin and ATK. Considering that it costs about $30,000,000.00 and a couple years to start up .22 production, I don't see an opportunity for new competition.

Centerfire is much easier. You can set up a few Dillon 1050s and start cranking away.
 
I'll say one thing about the shortage of .22 lr.

Ruger owns CCI, and if Ruger wants to sell their 10/22 or MKII .22 pistols, or Single Sixs or any .22 gun of any kind, they need to expand their factory and start pumping them out.

I now see tons of .22 rifles and pistols on the shelves at stores. Few buyers cause of the shortage of ammo.

Same for Remington. They sell .22 rifles and they ought to start making lots more .22s if they want to sell guns anymore.

Deaf
ATK is the parent company of CCI and Federal. In some cases, both brands come out of the same factory.
 
even with the increased demand, the ammunition is still missing.

if 2012 production levels could just keep up with demand, then why is it that after capacity and production hours were increased, we have a shortage? we should have a new 22lr plant coming online in a month or so, that according to the owner should make the same amount of ammunition this year for 22lr that Remington made in 2011 on its own.
yet well still have a shortage. and ive been seeing photos and accounts that while americans had a shortage, canadian stores were flooded with 22lr. I dont mean the tiny 50 round boxes, i mean the big 500 and 1000 round bulk boxes.
When i see photos of stores that have 6 pallets of that type of merchandise on the salefloor, and another 3 pallets worth put out on the shelf, and the employees complain they have to many pallets of it in back taking up room.
I know that someone somewhere in the USA decided to send it somewheres else.
 
even with the increased demand, the ammunition is still missing.
Increased demand is WHY ammo is still "missing". Demand doesn't create more product.

if 2012 production levels could just keep up with demand, then why is it that after capacity and production hours were increased, we have a shortage?
The little bit of increased production that could be squeezed out of the old lines is not enough to meet the new increased demand. New lines are needed.

we should have a new 22lr plant coming online in a month or so, that according to the owner should make the same amount of ammunition this year for 22lr that Remington made in 2011 on its own.
yet well still have a shortage.
Uh, production capacity that we will have SOON isn't able to put ammo on the shelf NOW.

I'm going to get a new truck next month. Can I haul firewood with it this afternoon?

and ive been seeing photos and accounts that while americans had a shortage, canadian stores were flooded with 22lr. I dont mean the tiny 50 round boxes, i mean the big 500 and 1000 round bulk boxes.
Different country without the same panic factors. They've gotten their supplies in and maybe a little more, perhaps, but there's no huge panic demand to buy it.

I know that someone somewhere in the USA decided to send it somewheres else.
Yup. Into shooters' closets and gun safes.
 
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Agsalaska, the price has adjusted at some gunshops for the most part. That's one of the reasons I refuse to do business with them. One of the principles that guides my life is that I do not take advantage of people economically even when I can and they would not know the difference.
 
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One of the principles that guides my life is that I do not take advantage of people economically even when I can and they would not know the difference.
The one fundamental principle that makes business work is to maximize return on investment. Buy product at the lowest expense and sell it at the highest profit. That's why businesses exist, and that's how they stay in business, grow, and make money for their owners.

Gun shops are BUSINESSES. Not CHARITIES. They do not exist to give people a handout or a "great deal" -- except in that it might further the larger goal of getting people to spend more at the shop in the long run.

YOU, personally, might feel that if you have some of "X" and someone you know needs some, you should give it to them at cost, or even at a loss, so you aren't "taking advantage of them." However, that simply means you're not in the business of selling "X."

(Or are really bad at it and won't be in business for long! :))
 
"the shortage is structural and the argument used why not to invest is false IMHO, basic math really."

I agree with the above statement. This situation has been going on for more than 2 years. Anywhere I go, if there is any 22LR, it doesn't last very long. And then they're empty again. This is in places with restrictions of only a few boxes of the stuff; they're not being bought out by guys taking their whole shipment. And most places have absolutely NONE in stock. I assume this is the situation in most of America.

Can No American company do the out-of-the-box entrepreneurial thinking that would serve a huge market if they were able to pump out 22 rimfire at a reasonable price in good quantitities ? Really ? The place that used to be called "The Arsenal of Democracy" ?

For most people, 22 rimfire ammo isn't an absolute necessity. What would happen if we were dealing with an item that was absolutely essential ?
 
Sam, there are rules of thumb in business in terms of markup. There is also competition that acts as a moderating force if you are in business. As you can tell, I am against taking advantage of people when you can get away with it approach. You would say that ...say $40-$45 is the market price for a $20-$25 bulk pack at retail of promotional grade 22 ammunition, and you would be mostly correct. This is why I refuse to sell any rimfire ammunition that I have because down deep.... I want that $40 or $45, but my sense of right and wrong won't allow me to sell at those prices. I hold people to the same standard. I also won't buy at those prices. But that's easy for me to say since I probably have enough promotional grade 22LR to last me the rest of my life and then some on hand already.

The problem comes in with pricing services in that many people feel that you should make $10 an hour for your services and see even below market based pricing to be extremely high. It is a concept that many people will never understand. But as you said, if you are in business, you are in business to make money and provide income for living and re-investment into that business.

For most people, 22 rimfire ammo isn't an absolute necessity. What would happen if we were dealing with an item that was absolutely essential ?

There lies the problem and govenment has stepped in with necessities such as fuel. But they have been remiss in stepping in relative to food as they ignore that as part of the inflation calculation equation.

I might add, that I don't want the government to step in unless it is a life or death situation.
 
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hate to burst it, but as we started the 22 "shortage" imports of that ammunition to canada went up....

as far as production... well even compared to 2013 levels current lines should be making roughly 80% more per year.
 
hate to burst it, but as we started the 22 "shortage" imports of that ammunition to canada went up....
Could be. Do you have data to support that? We'll need to know the how, why, and whom to be able to make anything out of that claim.

as far as production... well even compared to 2013 levels current lines should be making roughly 80% more per year.
Should be? Ok, can you support that theory with some data? And it stands to reason that some new and/or increased avenues of supply have been coming on line by now (they've had a year and a half to get going). So that would correspond well to the claims of many that the shortage is starting to ease.
 
Well maybe we all need to send letters to gun manufactures.

No ammo, we buy no guns.

Then maybe eyes will open (since pocketbooks will be hurt) and they decide to buy their own ammo company to take control of the supplies needed for them to sell guns.

Same for gun shops that sell .22 ammo at scalper prices. $50 or $100 for 550 rounds of Remington is just bs.

I'm already seeing alot of shops with huge inventories of .22 rifles. No, they are not selling. Why should they sell well when ammo is so expensive?

One does not need to practice with .22 all that much. If they want to hoard, let 'em. They can eat the ammo when food is short.

And BTW, it would be a WISE idea to get canned food for maybe a months supply in stock at your home. Buy the kind of canned food you like and has expiration dates about 10 years hence.

Deaf
 
For all of the assertions put forth the plain truth is that .22 ammo is available at present to anyone willing to part with their cash. That is a simple truth.

I bought a new Ford 500 in 2007 at a cost of $24,000, its equivalent is now closer to $30,000. No matter my posturing, the dealer simply won't agree to sell at "the old price" and it's not because he doesn't appreciate my business or that he's taking advantage of me. In the end, I can walk away or pay the asking price or spend $42k on a BMW knowing that the premium I paid bought me better performance.

Anyone who has seen Meet The Parents knows a "whole lot of Mums" is not the equivalent of a good bottle of champaign. Lamenting the fact that cheap, crummy ammo is not piled to the roof at Walmart is much the same. I know, someone's rifle shoots one-hole groups at 50 with Federal bulk all day long...

If .02/round were the most I'd pay, my centerfires would all have to go away not to mention the muzzleloaders which are my most expensive to shoot option.
 
"$50 or $100 for 550 rounds of Remington is just bs."
And yet it sells... I think your resentment is misplaced.

TCB
 
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