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What If's

Discussion in 'Strategies, Tactics and Training' started by JamisJockey, Jun 19, 2004.

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  1. JamisJockey

    JamisJockey member

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    I had to throw my $.02 in on "what if's". Seems that what if threads piss some of you guys off to no end.
    I'm an Air Traffic Controller by trade. My training had alot of What If's built into it. And go figure...the SHTF from time to time, and by being encouraged to think outside the box I find myself with more ability to think creatively when it goes bad. Last night is an example....thunderstorms moving right through the airport...ain't nobody landing in that crap.

    I understand sometimes 'what if's' are unrealistic, and you gotta call a spade a spade....but for the most part a what if scenerio is a healthy exercise to get you thinking about what if....what if things go bad...really bad...what am I going to do? What would other people do?

    Just food for thought.
     
  2. sm

    sm member

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    One learns from mistakes - less expensive and painful if someone else's

    I read, pay attention to, learn from the 'what if's' as well. The Reality is we have different folks in different walks of life, with various degrees of training, experience and actual circumstances. Though I may never be in that exact situation, place or time - I can steal from it lessons , good or bad, in the event those things which I can apply then to in my life. IF I ever found myself in a similar situation I have learned from folks. The Brain can hold a lot of useful tools that may or may not ever be needed - I see no reason to not add another tool to the toolbox when can.

    If not for me, it may be of benefit to someone else.
    To keep it - give it away it is said.
     
  3. GeneC

    GeneC member

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    I have to respond as well. These what if's remind me of that old saying ,"garbage in/ garbage out". What if's are only as good as the realism of the solutions. I happen to agree that what if speculation can be a good thing, but it can be a tragic thing if someone unrealistically thinks they can do a certain thing in a what if, only to find out when it actually happens not only was it the wrong thing, but could possibly be injurious or fatal, especially to someone else. For instance, what if a Libertarian actually was President? They want to obolish the INS and the Border Patrol and Homeland Security and the Patriot Act and taxes. They promote gay marriage and abortion and open borders. They believe that jury duty should not be mandatory, but voluntary and juries should not only decide guilt, but also interpret law. They believe in total individual freedom and a totally free society. Funny , terrorists around the world'd like that too.
     
  4. Devonai

    Devonai Member

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    It's been said that in an emergency, one responds according to the lowest level of training. No training, no response.

    Fortunately the human brain comes hardwired with some training, in fight or flight. As we've seen, fighting without training usually results in failure, and running away may save your hide, but does nothing for anyone else.

    Mental and physical training is benificial no matter how small, as long as the participant takes it seriously. SHTF or tactical scenarios played out on THR can be fun and/or ridiculous, but sometimes they force us to ask critical questions about our awareness level and our ability to respond.

    While we all could use some martial arts and firearms training in the real world, the mental aspect of things should not be ignored. I recommend Musashi's A Book of Five Rings as a great example of how critical thought can be instructive to the real challenges of combat.

    EDIT: Gene, for goodness sake, please educate yourself as to the Libertarian Party's actual platform!
     
  5. JamisJockey

    JamisJockey member

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    No, most of the terrorists we're dealing with would prefer Theocracy...government run by religion.
    And you've named a bunch of things our government insists on doing, yet is failing miserably at. Our borders are already porous.
    And the Patriot act is the biggest violation of the Constitution in 200 years.
    Whats wrong with Individual freedom...or do you prefer the current 'Nanny State'?
    :scrutiny:
     
  6. GeneC

    GeneC member

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    Call it what you want, but while terrorists are bombing in every country in the world at will, except this one , this administration's doing something right.
    Btw, I prefer http://federalist.com/
     
  7. JamisJockey

    JamisJockey member

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    I guess as long as you're right, everyone else must be wrong, eh?

    This wasn't meant to be a political discussion. This is a discussion of why reasonable 'What if's' are a healthy method of learning and problem solving.
     
  8. NMshooter

    NMshooter Member

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    Even a silly but entertaining discussion on the subject of zombie mutant ninja bears can be an interesting excercise if you are willing to look at it as such. Just try to consider factors beyond "Should I take the FAL or the AR-15? 9mm or .45?". You have to eat and sleep, and you need to consider your ultimate goal. Mere survival is not enough.
     
  9. Diamondback

    Diamondback Member

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    "What If's" can be entertaining......just as long as they don't distract me from the reality of what the next terrorist attack will probably look like and how I want to react. If God forbid it happens in my neighborhood, and unfortunately it is going to happen in someone's neighborhood, I want to take my cue fron New Yorkers. We will, I think , want to pull together; those of us with some significant first aid skills will be needed locally. We may be called upon to dig through rubble, feed the neighborhood kids whose mom and dad couldn't get home because the roads are impassible, check on the old lady down the street and turn off her gas. You know, I don't want to be isolated , hunkered down somewhere when in reality I need to be pulling together. I realize this is a gun related forum....and don't get me wrong I have a good bit of concern that I recognize can "melt into " a low grade paranoia from time to time....I got my munitions set aside. Mostly however I think a few extra cans of beans in my disaster kit for the neighbor caught off guard or several extra gallons of water for the neighbor's dog who greets me daily make more sense than my playing "What If ". It behooves me to think about the "What If "it really happens in my neighborhood and how I want to behave. Certainly there is room for the play "What If" scenarios too.

    Boy does't my post sound like a lecture !....sorry folks I can be like that sometimes.....I don't mean to put a damper on fun ! Just some thoughts.
    Regards
     
  10. GeneC

    GeneC member

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    Act, a "what if' scenario is only good if it's FIRMLY grounded in realistism, and yes my realism is right. I don't know/care about yours.

    Diamondback, your scenario is tops.
     
  11. Ryder

    Ryder Member

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    I see the "what ifs" as entertaining and I like reading them but I don't view them as particularly instructional even though I am always on the lookout for something new which might compliment my abilities.

    We all have different levels of ability and these discussions are but a chance to share that among ourselves. When your life is at risk who thinks? It's time for reaction, not remembering the opinion of others. I don't find myself bounded by anybody elses lack of ability nor their opinion. I am bounded by my abilities, experience, and conscience.

    Nobody high dives off an 80 foot cliff without working their way up a bit at a time unless they want to go splat. Life and death activities which depend on skill are all like that. This is so basic to survival, who needs to be warned?

    If the question is "what would you do?" I sure don't tell others what they shouldn't do. I wonder as to the motives of people who want to steer the conversations. Hey, guys who tell everyone what they can't talk about, why do you do that :confused: ;)
     
  12. Bobarino

    Bobarino member

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    hmmm, i'm wishy washy on the "what if" stuff. on the flip side of ACT1MAN, i'm a pilot, (thanks ATC!MAN, you guys rock!) and we deal with "what if" constantly in training. the CFI is ALWAYS pulling the red knob and asking what are you going to do now? what if you had a bird strike? what if, what if, what if. well, they train you deal with all the "what if"s. it boils down to training. when a pilot loses and engine, we follow the proceedure we were trained to follow almost automatically and with even thinking about it. same applies to firearms. training, training, training. have people train you and then practice over and over. rationale has a way of finding its way out the window when things go sour and you're left with what you were trained to do and practiced so much that its ingrained in your brain. i read the what if's here but honestly don't give them as much thought as i probably should becuase, lets face it, some of the are WAAAAAY out there. mutant zombie killer Kangaroos are not going to invade from the planet Omnibushius anytime soon. the ones that sound somewhat feasible i do pnder for a while and try to make an honest assesment of what i would really do. most of them involve changing my underwear. many involve using the Nike defense. but its tough to train for something that has never happened and likely never will happen becuase in order for someone to trian you in what to do , someone has to have expereince in that area. and, ain't noone alive can tell me how to counter the tactics of the Russian army invading America. or, maybe i should go rent Wolverines again and take some notes.

    Bobby
     
  13. GeneC

    GeneC member

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    Ryder, what the heck are you talking about? The whole thing about "what ifs" is what works and what don't work , IN REALITY. That does not change, per ability, it has very little to do with ability, it has everything to do with common sense and presense of mind. Let me tell y'all about two armed confrontations I was in , when I wasn't armed. First one was in LA, Ca, 1982. I was delivering pizzas at night. Seems local gangs got the idea to find houses where the lights were on, but nobody home and would call in and order a pizza(s) to that address(this is partially why they call and verify your phone #). One night I pulled up, we had hot trucks,(which was a little pickup with an oven in the bed) and we weren't allowed to pull up into the driveway, we had to park on the street. So I parked and went up to the door with my 3 pizzas. The lights were on and a van was in the driveway, so I went up the steps and knocked on the door. No answer, so I knocked again and again. No answer , so I turned around and started down the steps back to my truck. When I hit the ground, the van side door opened and 5 gang members stepped out. The apparent leader, who was in front said,"Hey man, give me your money!" Without missing a step I dropped the pizzas in front of them and 3 of them immediately swooped on the pizzas. I said, "Hey man, I don't have any money." and kept on walking to my truck. The leader pulled a gun and went after me and I began to run to the truck. He chased after me firing his weapon and chased me around the truck shooting at me. The only thing I remember was bang,bang,bang,,click,click. I got in my truck and drove away. Now, anybody want to tell me what I should have done? Anybody want to tell me about reality? I have more.

    Bobarino, yeah, training is based on tried and true of what works and believe me, people ahave died on what don't work, same as in combat. Btw, I was in the USMC for 8 years.
     
  14. Freedomv

    Freedomv Member

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    Concerning "What ifs."
    I believe it would be best in any given situation to KNOW Your capabilities. Take into account the situation. This may take a split second or maybe minutes, depending on the situation. Take into account available resources and options and act accordingly. The most important is knowing your capabilities and risk factor.
    My $.02
    Vern
     
  15. Ryder

    Ryder Member

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    Sounds like you did what was within your ability and you reacted without taking a bunch of other's opinions into account Gene. That is what I was talking about. Not sure why you found that hard to understand? Perhaps I was having a bad hair day. :D

    If there's a problem with "what ifs" that would have be it... Ten people can interpret every comment in ten ways. Perceptive abilities are amazingly variable using this medium of communication.
     
  16. CrudeGT

    CrudeGT Member

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    I think what ifs are good for the imagination. I under stand that in a high stress, high adrenaline situation your training is what will wave your ass. But the "what if's" that are portrayed here are good for ones ability to think up new ways to train. thus making the individual more able to handle the situation, if the individual wants to.


    gene, While i will agree with you that one can not cover EVERY possible variable (we be here until we all had alzheimers), we certainly do have the ability to dream up new topics. It's something fun that those of us who live behind computer desk, and dispise our jobs. It gives me something entertaining to run through in my head.

    And I know this is going to be childish, but I gonna say it. If you don't like the topic don't read the post. it's really as simple as that. None of us are talking about what's going to happen tomorrow. These are just random thoughts. So if you don't like where they are going, don't read, and don't post. Otherwise you come off a troll. At least in my eyes.
     
  17. GeneC

    GeneC member

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    Crude, I'm surprised at your response (btw, I'm certainly NOT a troll), when on just another thread , you say yourself that you dislike all the false bravado and unrealistic innuendo, which is all that I'm saying. I love "what if" scenarios, but only if the response solutions are realistic. Of course you can't practice fro EVERY situation, but when you study real situations(and survive a few of your own), you realize there are some simularities. For instance, in any given fight, no matter the circumstance, don't get cornered, keep yourself an exit, don't let your opponent get in close, don't hesitate,MOVE, MOVE quickly, move laterally, know your enemy, know human nature- my intuition was at the time that they were hungry and I had fresh pizza. I reduced my opponents from 5 to 1. I don't know, this may sound corny, but I've always been a student of the Truth and of human nature and I think I have a good grasp on reality and human nature, but know some people're just unpredictable.


    Btw, Ryder, you said you don't jump off a 80' cliff without working up to it. That's what I's questioning and was wondering what that has to do with this?
     
  18. Heraclitus

    Heraclitus Member

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    "What if" scenarios are not bad, nor do they represent a one-size-fits-all solution for the ad hoc participant.

    As true as there are jokers in every deck of cards, there are random elements at work in each and every situation. Like buzzing insects, they move about amorphously in black and heavy swarms, and suddenly combine -- cartoonlike -- into specific, often surprising shapes. In the end, we cannot predict these shapes anymore than a 16th century court physician with a minor in astrology. We can only guess them.

    Armed with this knowledge, "what ifs" merely provide us with a rough template; a disembodied sketch of the world, with which we can examine, excercise, and perhaps build our situational awareness to the point of a daily workout.

    This, in my opinion, is a good thing.
     
  19. BigG

    BigG Member

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    I went through a lot of that stuff and found it's often helpful. At least it gets you thinking and that is a new experience for some people. Remember the 6P Principle. ;)
     
  20. David Blinder

    David Blinder Member

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    The body won't go where the mind hasn't been. What if's are useful because nobody has the time or inclination to experience enough situations for real but we all have time to imagine various scenarios and come up with possible solutions. Do they have to be exactly like a genuine situation? No! Do they need to be within the realm of possibility? Yes!
     
  21. GeneC

    GeneC member

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    Folks, I's in the Marines for 8 yrs and this doing what your capable of and the body not going where the mind hasn't been just isn't real. Every day for 16 weeks I went way beyond what I thought I was capable of. You don't really know WhAT your capable of 'til ya A.) constantly push yourself to the limit or B.) get into a situation and have an overwhelming desire to survive. You HAVE to believe you can do anything you need to to survive (but remember, an ounce of prevention, be prepared, etc...), or else you're defeating yourself.

    Btw, Herclitus, I want some a what you're smoking.:D
     
  22. Trebor

    Trebor Member

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    Personally, instead of making "what if's" out of whole cloth, instead I like to look at crimes reported in news article and then role-play that situation out in my mind. Granted, there aren't a lot of details in most articles so I have to fill in the blanks to get a scenario, but it gives me a place to start and grounds the whole thing in reality a bit.

    Btw, the scenarios don't have to be from news articles. Historical incidents work as well.

    I will admit to pondering the SHTF "zombie mutant biker" attacks from time to time, but I generally like to concentrate on things that are more likely to happen in my real like.
     
  23. carpettbaggerr

    carpettbaggerr Member

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    Strange, that's what I'd prefer too.

    Have a few singles paperclipped to a book of matches -- throw money to left of robbers, run to right. The one who's not hungry will go for the cash.
     
  24. R.H. Lee

    R.H. Lee Member

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    "What ifs?" can be good practice exercising the communication between the left and right brain. They are "think tank" type exercises used by every major power on earth. They imagine possibilities and the use (or lack thereof) of available resources, and can lead to new innovations and inventions.:)
     
  25. Plinkerton

    Plinkerton Member

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    Ahh... why must you tease me?

    It's too bad you couldn't just deal with the topic at hand. You had to jump at the chance to bash another political stance, besides the almighty Conservative one.

    I hate to break it to you, but God probably isn't a Conservative. I would imagine He would have a little more compassion.
     
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