WrongHanded
Member
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2017
- Messages
- 4,771
This is a thought exercise. No need to panic....yet. And we're only talk handgun cartridges here.
Considering the panic buying and general ammo shortages we've seen in the past couple years, along with the reduction in raw material availability compared to the rise in demand, I got to wondering:
If such shortages continued over a longer period of time (various reasons for this), it seems likely to result in prices continuing to rise, and only the most common cartridges continuing to be available on a regular basis. Given such a scenario, we'd likely see market forces drive many handgun cartridges into a mass extinction of sorts. Where I can imagine only a few cartridges would remain popular enough - during a market shift towards affordability and availability - that the handgun chambered in them would continue to be produced. And as we've seen with Sig recently, production would stop for the less popular cartridges. Which would further narrow the market on cartridges.
If such events did unfold, I see the 9x19mm as the front running survivor. Its use in Military and LE applications, along with its surge of popularity in the civilian market, guarantees its success. The cost of materials per cartridge are low, and for SD and HD use it is certainly capable enough that even those with other preferences would be willing to convert to it eventually.
This would kill the .40S&W (for real this time), the .357 Sig, the .38spl and also probably the .45acp. Where material costs factor in, the .45 would simply not be an economical "bang for your buck". And so I see the 9mm replacing all of these cartridges completely.
However. Due to the growing number of people recreating in nature, I believe there would still be space for one other cartridge. A woods cartridge of some sort. It would make sense that to stay relevant during the cartridge mass extinction, it would need to be significantly more powerful than the 9mm, and already common enough to have a strong footing in the market. It would also need to not be so overwhelmingly powerful as to be unappealing to a great deal of gun owners.
I see the .357 Magnum, 10mm Auto, and .44 Magnum as being the three likely candidates in this handgun cartridge niche. But I'm not sure which one of them would win the race.
How do you guys feel about it? If the market dictated only two handgun cartridges remained, what do you think they would be?
Considering the panic buying and general ammo shortages we've seen in the past couple years, along with the reduction in raw material availability compared to the rise in demand, I got to wondering:
If such shortages continued over a longer period of time (various reasons for this), it seems likely to result in prices continuing to rise, and only the most common cartridges continuing to be available on a regular basis. Given such a scenario, we'd likely see market forces drive many handgun cartridges into a mass extinction of sorts. Where I can imagine only a few cartridges would remain popular enough - during a market shift towards affordability and availability - that the handgun chambered in them would continue to be produced. And as we've seen with Sig recently, production would stop for the less popular cartridges. Which would further narrow the market on cartridges.
If such events did unfold, I see the 9x19mm as the front running survivor. Its use in Military and LE applications, along with its surge of popularity in the civilian market, guarantees its success. The cost of materials per cartridge are low, and for SD and HD use it is certainly capable enough that even those with other preferences would be willing to convert to it eventually.
This would kill the .40S&W (for real this time), the .357 Sig, the .38spl and also probably the .45acp. Where material costs factor in, the .45 would simply not be an economical "bang for your buck". And so I see the 9mm replacing all of these cartridges completely.
However. Due to the growing number of people recreating in nature, I believe there would still be space for one other cartridge. A woods cartridge of some sort. It would make sense that to stay relevant during the cartridge mass extinction, it would need to be significantly more powerful than the 9mm, and already common enough to have a strong footing in the market. It would also need to not be so overwhelmingly powerful as to be unappealing to a great deal of gun owners.
I see the .357 Magnum, 10mm Auto, and .44 Magnum as being the three likely candidates in this handgun cartridge niche. But I'm not sure which one of them would win the race.
How do you guys feel about it? If the market dictated only two handgun cartridges remained, what do you think they would be?