Ammo predictions (5/6/21)?

[bersaguy]

I was just at my local Bass Pro, there was actually a few boxes of ammo on the shelf, mostly 223 and 7.62x39, a few reloading bullets, a few boxes of new brass. Not much, but a darn sight more than there has been for quite a while. I'm hoping this is the beginning of the end of the drought

 

[wiscoaster]

Observation, not a prediction: I've been getting bunches of "Ammo in stock!!" emails from online ammo sources I've done business with. They wouldn't be pushing ammo they didn't have. I've also been getting "Guns in stock!!" emails as well. I take them as hopeful signs, and I suppose if forced to make a prediction it would be "the end is near!!" Though of course the end of anything and everything will be one day closer tomorrow than today.

 

[Ignition Override]

If....we see very few urban riots this spring/summer, then the mass anxiety will then lead to a gradual, but steady decrease in prices by September.

Since September I never saw 7.62x39 avail. at all on the AIMsurplus website. It appeared in single boxes of Red Army Standard several days ago (or earlier). Strange to see it there.

And the previous $400-420 price on JGsales for 1,000 rds. of Tula or Wolf FMJ is now a steady $400.
JGsales consistently has had multiple types/quantities of 7.62x39 since my observation began in September, when a calf muscle was healing from a tear.
-- A new, extra small tip in a large block of ice is far better than none.

Another viewer here might have stated yesterday that many First-time gun owners must have thrown a handgun in a drawer and never touched it again, after trying it out.

 

[reddog81]

Steel case Tula 9mm for $29.95/50 says we've still got a very long way to go!

Very true. In 2019 that stuff was like $8 per box of $50, however $30 per box is better than $40 per box they were going for 3 months ago!

I have also noticed they daily emails with 9mm available. Even got an email today for 300 rounds of .38 Special for $240 which is the first .38 Special I've seen under $1 per round in a long time. A lot of imported ammo is hitting the market.

I think we will see a slow decline in price for a while. Of course, that assumes nothing else comes up that cause a fresh round of panic buying. It took 2 years of Trump in the office and Rs having control of congress in order for prices to bottom out. If you're waiting for 2018 prices to return you will be waiting for a very very very long time.

 

[herrwalther]

With Vista now owning a large percentage of US manufacturing and they recently announced several price increases; I seriously doubt prices will be like 2018, but one can hope.

I took into account manufacturer price increases. Every large ammo maker has upped the cost of production as far as I know. And that increase is passed onto suppliers, dealers, and customers. I don't think we will see 2018 prices ever again.

 

[DustyGmt]

My wife says I'm pretty good at calling things ahead. I'm guessing when the dust settles and every manufacturer is caught up in the next 12-18 months, the old normal of $8-$12 for 50rd box of 9mm, will be $18-$22. I will be very happy if I'm wrong and we see $200 cases again.

 

[George P]

My wife says I'm pretty good at calling things ahead. I'm guessing when the dust settles and every manufacturer is caught up in the next 12-18 months, the old normal of $8-$12 for 50rd box of 9mm, will be $18-$22. I will be very happy if I'm wrong and we see $200 cases again.

You won't be wrong. A look at Vista MSRP shows a massive increase over MSRP from 2 years ago

 

[George P]

There will soon be thousands of newly reopened summer camps and scout camps looking for .22 LR ammo. Tens of millions rounds needed.

There are tens of thousands of SCTP kids looking for shotgun ammo so they can continue their scholarships

 

[lsudave]

'm guessing when the dust settles and every manufacturer is caught up in the next 12-18 months, the old normal of $8-$12 for 50rd box of 9mm, will be $18-$22.

If we were dealing with one mother company, such as Vista, that definitely would be the case. But don't discount the impact that CBC (Magtech, S&B, MEN), RUAG (RUAG, Geco, etc), PPU (which owns Belom) et al can make. And that's not taking the new imports (Igman from Croatia, Venom from Turkey, etc) into account.

If Vista wants to price Blazer Brass at $22, you know they will get undercut. There's a reason things were sitting around $10 a box beforehand, that was as low as they could go and make a small profit. Higher prices sound good to a manufacturer or a retailer, until their competitors don't play along.

Added- keep in mind, PPU is coming from Serbia, established company with relatively low labor costs. They were able to set the low price point in the past (and they make the brass Monarch ammo for Academy). I imagine they, like other companies, have been ramping up, we're eventually going to get a glut of ammo hitting the market.
I mentioned Igman from Croatia... remember that Maxxtech ammo nobody wanted to shoot, it was really cheap? That was Croatian, too. Could well be a rebrand.

Lots of these foreign makers put out a lot of ammo, and they don't have nearly the native shooters we have here in the US. I think they hit military contracts, and then anything else comes here. I'm sure they'd LOVE to increase their profits, but like I said above- it's going to be hard to keep everyone toeing the line at a false high. That Croatian company would be all too happy to cut their per-round margin, if they can establish a solid foothold here. They're not going to sit at the same price an established brand is, if they can sell cheaper and still make a profit.

 

[ozarkhillbilly]

I think if everything goes smoothly we will see a slow decrease in pricing. However if all of a sudden ammo dropped to 2018 prices we would see a massive run, I believe the demand is still very high, just not at .75 to1.00 per round.

 

[1942bull]

The ammo market will go as the gun market goes. With record gun sales and record selling prices of guns you can be sure the ammo market will follow suit. More guns means a greater demand for ammo. The greater the demand the higher the price. “We have ammo” does not translate to we have better priced ammo.

 

[lsudave]

“We have ammo” does not translate to we have better priced ammo.

Someone with a business background commented on another board awhile back- I think the stores have to pay taxes on inventory. *Yep, just looked it up, in a generic sense you do pay taxes on unsold inventory in a number of states (and I recognize those as home states for a lot of ammo sellers).

The smart model, I guess, is to predict how much you will sell, and buy accordingly. That, of course, got whacked this past year.
I think what's happening with all these emails, is that the manufacturers are catching up, the stores are getting full warehouses, and the market is slowing down. And suddenly, a lot of guys are looking at potential big tax hits if they don't move stuff- especially if they already placed more orders anticipating continued frenzies.

So I guess the move on our (the buyers) part, is to find out when that tax bill gets calculated. Is the retailer going to hold firm and sit on his stock, and pay his taxes, or is he going to try to sell what he can? I think it's the latter. If we can hold out until that time approaches, I bet we see things drop a good bit. And once it does, it will only keep moving.

 

[Telum Pisces]

Here's why I said what I said about primers being back on the shelves and not being sucked dry.

If primers are making it to shelves to be sold as components, that means that the producers of ammo are finally catching up to their demand and prices are settling to what they are going to be. Then initially, the reloading crowd will have their go at hording the initial round of primers on the shelves for a while. Because let's face it, reloaders that are sane have not probably bought primers in over a year by now! I know I haven't. So when primers are sitting on the shelves it means two things. The actual ammo world of people that want complete factory ammo are satisfied and then also reloaders are satisfied and prices will level. So until primers are on shelves in all varieties for me to choose from, it is not back to normal.

 

[twarr1]

Reloading components, particularly primers, are the bellweather for me; when I see primers on the shelf lasting through restock intervals. The price will settle where it needs to be.
I've been able to buy enough ammo at good prices to keep me shooting through this spell. It's not my first (or second) and it won't be my last. But my reloading has been on hold for a long while. I have a good collection of brass!

 

[Deadeer]

When supplies level out, I will be buying by the case and powder by the jug or keg from now on!

 

[mmb617]

Prices may have started downward a bit, certainly not much. And availability is still a big problem at this point. I get lot's of email advertising ammo and components and if I respond to them I always find prices still very high and usually they are already sold out even if I just got the email a couple hours ago. One example was an email I got last night at 7 PM and checked this morning at 6 AM for primers at $100 per brick plus $25 hazmat. Most would say that price is still pretty high, yet they were all gone during the overnight.

My crystal ball is cloudy but I don't see things getting much better in the short term, and I don't think there's any chance prices will ever be close to what they were pre-panic. Eventually, maybe next year, product will be available but prices will be at least double and probably more than double what they were in early 2020. I hope I'm wrong but doubt if I am.

 

[jmorris]

My prediction is that once ammunition and components become plentiful and cheap again, there will still be people that won’t buy what they need or more than they need at the moment until after the next panic buy starts.

That’s not really a crystal ball, I have just seen them do it when Clinton signed the AWB, that sunset when Bush was POTUS and I guess no one bought AR’s, mags, ammunition or reloading components because after Obama’s re-election and Sandyhook they went full panic again, then Trump came in and business actually closed because, I guess everyone and their brother were using AR lowers for door stops and mags as bookends, obviously didn’t stock up on ammo or the $99/5000 primers back then, as they are where they are now.

 

[George P]

I don't believe there ever was a shortage. There was a massive increase in the demand for ammunition that far exceeded the manufacturers ability to fill.

That is, by definition, exactly what a shortage is

 

[George P]

One example was an email I got last night at 7 PM and checked this morning at 6 AM for primers at $100 per brick plus $25 hazmat. Most would say that price is still pretty high, yet they were all gone during the overnight.

You get an email at 7PM, you can bet 100,000 others did too and if you do not act immediately, you'll never get to order any.

 

[shafter]

That is, by definition, exactly what a shortage is

I meant supply. Supply didn't change. Demand did.

 

[Wildbillz]

I think things have peaked and are in the down ward trend. If all goes well I think in 1 year to a year and a half we will see ammo on the shelf and the price stabilized. I don't think that we will see the price as low as they were pre WooFlue. Keep in mind there have been some raw materials increases, and we will most likely see some sort of inflation from all the Free Money that was handed out. Also how many guys have we seen post as soon as things are normal again I am going to back up the truck! That is going to keep the pressure on supplies for a while.

Just my thoughts
WB

 

[Hangingrock]

At my present rate of consumption I won't need to acquire additional ammunition until 2025. By then the political climate should be changed thus the marketplace also. The other aspect is I find myself shooting less than previous years which could be an aging thing. At some point its up and out!

 

[1942bull]

Someone with a business background commented on another board awhile back- I think the stores have to pay taxes on inventory. *Yep, just looked it up, in a generic sense you do pay taxes on unsold inventory in a number of states (and I recognize those as home states for a lot of ammo sellers).

There are only 9 states that tax inventory. You can see a list and an explanation of the taxing here:
https://www.boxstorm.com/articles/inventory-tax-explained-for-your-small-business/

I do not think inventory taxes have much to do,with the price of ammo.

 

[lsudave]

There are only 9 states that tax inventory. You can see a list and an explanation of the taxing here:
https://www.boxstorm.com/articles/inventory-tax-explained-for-your-small-business/

I do not think inventory taxes have much to do,with the price of ammo.

Well, one of those states is Oklahoma, and I know sgammo is in Stillwater. I will watch them this fall, and I think there are others in places that tax it.

The idea isn't now; it's end-of-year. Everyone wants ammo, so every shop places as many orders as they can. More manufacturers are coming back into the mix, based on what I see available. Makes sense, we're all going back to normal in some manner, and companies like PMC want to sell their share of ammo at 40 bucks a box.

I meant supply. Supply didn't change. Demand did.

I think supply did, too. Some countries got hit pretty hard with shutdowns. You get a ding in the chain somewhere (raw material shipment, having to go skeleton at the factory, something like that), while at the same time demand skyrockets and you empty your shipping warehouses... that has an effect.
I haven't seen Fiocchi back, yet. That's Italy, they got rocked. And Fiocchi is a big player in this. If they're behind, that makes a difference.

Back to the stores- if they are placing orders left and right (a lot might be to cash in right now), AND the following occur- orders get filled faster due to ramped up production, and purchases are dropping because nobody;s buying bulk 9mm at over 700 a case. Then suddenly, Billy Bob's Online Ammo Shop has a warehouse full of stuff, and his sales are not making a dent in that. Not a big enough one, at least. So he either takes the tax hit, or tries to run sales to move it at a lower price, and make (a still good amount of) money on it. That's the scenario I'm hoping for.

That, and I'm hoping the new manufacturers to our market sell low to stay in the game. I mention Igman, since it's Croatian. Never saw it before. You know they can make ammo, they make the XD series of guns and they've got a rather hostile neighbor in Serbia (who have the Zastava guns and PPU ammo). Ammo in a country there is probably a priority, in the event there's another conflict. So they probably have a big factory. They've gained access to US sales, you know that's got to be a good thing in their minds, and I wouldn't be surprised if they try to stay in it. The best way to do so is to sell it cheaper then others.

 

[shafter]

Well, hopefully once ammo is cheap and plentiful again people will stock it deep so they're ready for next time.

But they won't.