Can you find .22lr?

[sniper69]

...and if I don't buy a brick off GB or at a gunshow I have to wait for the stars to align properly and get my three 50 round boxes from my local store. I like to shoot more than once every couple of months.

Or you can set up email alerts through wikiarms and order online. For example, on Thursday Midway had 325 rd boxes of federal auto match 22 LR for less than 7 cents a round shipped (if the limit of 3 boxes was bought, price point would be higher if less was bought and shipping wasn't spread over the three boxes). It will be here on Monday. Why waste gas and wait in line at stores for 50 rd. boxes, when one can order online when an email notification comes through?

Now if one is desperate for .22's and is out- cdnn has Remington in stock for about 10 cents a round - and they've had it in stock for about a month (maybe because of the price....) With that said there are better prices than that online, but one has to be diligent. With wikiarms you can set up a price point (I set it at 7 cents a round). Then when I need more .22 - I can order some when an email alert comes through. In the last week there have been over a half dozen email alerts at 7 cents a round or less.

I'm not sure why some will only look locally and say there is no .22, or no .22 at a good price, or complain because walmart puts out their ammo shipment at 7 or 8 am and the same folks are always in line - when one can order it online (granted it still sells out quick when decently priced online, but one can still find it).

 

[ColtPythonElite]

If everybody starts scouring online for ammo, there won't be enough to go around....The pie is only so big.

 

[JohnKSa]

And that would certainly explain why a lot of us are saying that the retail stores aren't getting the same qtys they used to.

No one seems to be addressing that issue here.

I have been addressing it!

Of COURSE they aren't getting the same quantities that they used to! They used to get whatever they ordered because the situation was different. Now that EVERY retailer is out of .22LR, they are ALL trying to restock COMPLETELY with every order. That means that there's not enough to go around and nobody gets their full order in.

Before, almost NO ONE was sold out so anytime anyone placed a large order they got everything they asked for.

So 10 years ago, if WalMart X placed an order for 100 bricks in the first week of May, they would get it. No problem because they were one of only a very few stores placing an order that large on that week.

NOW EVERY store is placing an order for a lot of .22LR EVERY week. The numbers make it plain that if every retailer places a large order every week they will only get in a few bricks each--that's all that they can possibly get because that's all that's available.

... that's assuming that every walmart would even sell 30 boxes a week...

No, it's NOT assuming that at all. What I lined out in my last post is an ABSOLUTE WORST CASE scenario assuming that EVERY SINGLE FREAKING ROUND OF .22LR MADE goes ONLY to WalMarts. Clearly that is not remotely accurate. There are many other walk-in retailers of ammo besides WalMart and many online retailers as well.

In the WORST CASE SCENARIO where WalMart gets ALL the .22LR, each store would only have to sell 32-33 bricks a week to stay completely sold out. In the real world, they only have to sell 5-10 bricks a week to stay completely sold out because there is a host of other retailers also selling .22LR.

In the current situation, each WalMart really only needs to sell a handful of boxes of .22LR each week to completely sell out.

The point of my post was that the comment that one poster made about his WalMart getting ONLY 10 bulk boxes per order does NOT support the argument that there is some sort of artificially restricted supply. That sort of a weekly shipment size is EXACTLY what we should expect in the current situation.

The pie is only so big.

PRECISELY. In my last post I posted the numbers that show how big (small) the pie really is once you start figuring out how many people want a slice on a regular basis.

The bottom line is that a relatively small number of "dedicated" panic buyers/flippers in each area can keep this shortage going indefinitely for a relatively small investment in money and a slightly larger investment in time.

 

[danez71]

Quote:
And that would certainly explain why a lot of us are saying that the retail stores aren't getting the same qtys they used to.

No one seems to be addressing that issue here.

I have been addressing it!

Of COURSE they aren't getting the same quantities that they used to! They used to get whatever they ordered because the situation was different. Now that EVERY retailer is out of .22LR, they are ALL trying to restock COMPLETELY with every order. That means that there's not enough to go around and nobody gets their full order in.

No. You're not. Unless I'm completely reading it wrong.

(written for illustration purposes only, I'm not meaning this literally)

What you're describing is that every store has a sell rate of 10 boxes and they like to have at least 5 boxes on the shelf.

They placed their 10 box order every week and got their 10 boxes every week. But tragedy happens, panic ensues, and they sell all 15 boxes.


So then they place an order for 15 boxes to completely re-stock; but they don't get all 15 boxes. And now there isn't enough to go around..... and no one is happy because they aren't getting whatever they ordered. And, that is what they are used to; getting what ever they ordered.


What I'm saying is the same thing except that they should be getting their normal 10 boxes.

I agree/concede, They wont get 15 boxes; because there isn't anymore capacity than before. I'm with you on that.


HOWEVER!!.......They should still be getting their same 10 boxes they were getting for yrs. But they're not!!!

 

[Ignition Override]

What many of these topics don't want to describe in clear language up front, is that it's all about buying from/supporting "China-Mart".

Is the lower price really worth so many diversions in a car?

Ordering online does require average market prices plus extra for shipping, but if the goal is just to Have some .22LR ammo, that meets the overall objective.
When the next panic hits, which usually is related to an unexpected tragedy, the extra price for .22LR will be a type of ammo insurance policy.

 

[JohnKSa]

What you're describing is that every store has a sell rate of 10 boxes and they like to have at least 5 boxes on the shelf.

More like the other way around. They probably had a sell rate of 5 bricks and like to keep at least 15 bricks on the shelves.

They placed their 10 box order every week and got their 10 boxes every week. But tragedy happens, panic ensues, and they sell all 15 boxes.

No, that's not correct at all for several reasons.

1. Your scenario dramatically understates the increase in demand. I don't believe that the sell rate was anywhere near 10 bricks a week per WalMart. The 4.2billion figure is quoted as a maximum production rate, not the normal production rate. The average sell rate was obviously a LOT lower than it is now or the manufacturers would have been able to keep up by increasing production. The demand has increased so much that the ammo makers can't actually make enough to keep everyone happy. As far as I can tell, that means an increase of AT LEAST 300% to 400%, not a 50% increase as your scenario assumes.

2. Your scenario ignores the "reservoir effect" of stocked shelves. Unless a store is sold out, they do not have to order to completely restock, they just have to order at their sell rate. Now that all the stores are sold out, they're not just trying to keep up with their sell rate, they're also trying to restock. So they weren't having to order "their normal 10 boxes" every single week because they weren't sold out on a regular basis.

In a normal situation, they have busy weeks and light weeks. Some weeks they might not order any .22LR at all. Maybe even some entire months. Then other times they might sell most of what they have and need to order say 6 or 7 boxes. They might even have a truly banner week and sell out completely and have to restock.

But when the shelves are empty, they have to order to restock AND to meet demand.

3. Your scenario ignores the "empty shelf effect" which tends to panic buyers and increase demand further. This explains why the increase is a lot more than it would be based purely on the increase in gun sales, for example.

However you hash this out, the bottom line is that even at MAXIMUM .22LR production, the numbers say that a handful of motivated buyers for each store can keep retailer shelves empty of .22LR.

When that happens over a large area, and for long enough time, it means that as more stores get sold out and more stores have to place larger orders to try to meet increased demand AND restock at the same time, it means that more people want a bigger slice of a pie that can only be increased in size so much. The result is that everyone actually ends up with a SMALLER piece of pie than they had before.

Look at it this way.

At a party, a size 24 pie is split by a group of 10 people except that only 5 people want pie and one guy wants seconds. With 6 pieces being handed out, everyone who wants pie gets a size 4 piece of pie (24/6).

Now those 10 people go to the same party next week and each bring 3 friends. The host knew that the party was going to be bigger but he only has so much money to spend on pie so he buys a size 48 pie.

At the party, when it's time for pie, 36 people want a piece. The original 10 people at the first party ALL want pie this time and 5 of them even decide that they also want a second helping because at the first party the guy who wanted seconds got some. The 36 people who wanted pie each get a size 1.3 piece of pie and there's nothing for seconds.

Now the original 10 people start complaining because they say they wanted a size 4 piece of pie as was handed out at the original party and the 5 who wanted seconds are also complaining because they can't get seconds like they wanted. The host points out that he bought more pie, but he doesn't have the ability to provide enough pie for everyone to get a size 4 slice like they did at the first party, let alone for there to be seconds for those who want them too. The demand is just too high.

BUT, the original 10 say--at the first party there was a size 4 slice for everyone who wanted pie and there was even seconds. Clearly, they say, there isn't as much pie as there used to be. NOT TRUE, says the host. There's twice as much pie as there used to be, but now there's 6 times as much demand.

The original 10 leave the party convinced that the host is involved in a conspiracy to keep them from getting as much pie as they want...

 

[DevsAdvocate]

I never understood the way the term "hoarder" is thrown around with a negative connotation. They should be instead be referred to as "preparers". I guess folks are just jealous that some people had the good idea of stocking up on ammo. It is thanks to stockpiling that myself and others were able to shoot for about a year when .22 was very scarce.

In my opinion, it is NEVER a bad thing to have too much of an important item, especially something potentially life-saving such as ammunition.

I have 20+ bungee cords in my truck in case one breaks while I'm working. I don't NEED 20 bungee cords, so does that make me a bungee cord hoarder?

My neighbor doesn't NEED four motorcycles, does that make him a motorcycle hoarder?

Gold is scarce, yet my Dad has some gold stashed away that he'll probably never touch. I guess he's a gold hoarder, huh?

Water is scarce, yet I have 100 or so gallons of emergency supply water that I don't NEED, but it makes me feel better to have extra. Does that make me a water hoarder? (These are all rhetorical questions, I don't really give one if anyone thinks I'm a "hoarder" or not)

Call it what you will, I call it being over prepared. Rather have too much than too little ammunition, anyone that says they'd rather be underprepared is either a fool or lying out of spite. If you're reading this and you have 500,000 rounds of .22lr stocked up, it may be excessive but that's awesome and keep it up, you smart over-prepared people!

I don't think hoarding is bad, but I do believe hoarders are responsible for much of the .22lr shortage woes. But generally this is true because .22lr is simply too cheap for the moment.

 

[Hammer059]

I'm glad I started this thread, it's turned out to be pretty interesting!

My LGS seems to be getting shipments of 50ct boxes of CCI standard velocity at least once a week now… My guess would be about 2,000 - 3,000 rounds at a time but it's hard to say because it's obvious people have bought some by the time I get there. Anyway, yesterday I picked up another 10 boxes (500 rounds) for $44. They always have Federal and some other random stuff but I'm trying to fill up a .50cal ammo can with .22lr and I want to keep it all CCI SV if possible.

There are plenty of other local-ish small stores that I know have .22, I just haven't checked because the one literally down the street from me always has something.

My Walmart doesn't even carry firearms or .22lr. They carry "common" centerfire calibers and barely ever have anything (from what I hear, I haven't been in a Walmart in years)

 

[oneounceload]

The pie is only so big.

But it could be made bigger IF the makers were willing to increase capacity; but that takes time and capital; they were hoping that bubble was going to be a short time, but it hasn't. I just saw a story where CA has supposedly outlawed lead for ALL hunting - I suspect with things like that happening many makers are reluctant to make the investment for rimfire when the profit might be greater with certain centerfire rounds.

 

[hot chili powder]

Finding 22LR

Still hard to find here in Titletown. Cabelas is hit & miss.....mostly miss. I won't pay over 8 cents per round. Even Walmart is out. If ya see some at a reasonable price....buy'em as the shortage is still with us.:banghead:

 

[danez71]

JohnKSa, for the love of all things gun related, quit trying to disect what I said that i wasnt writting literally and try to re-explain to me what I'm not asking. (Said with genuine smile)

I've been involved in mfg, supply chain management in some way for almost 30 yrs and currently manage as part of my duties the purchasing and planning dept for a 850 million dollar publicly traded company. My division is only about 200 million though.

Fair to say I know a thing or 2.

Word it however you want and use whatever #s you want.

Every POS (point of sale) has/had a sell rate per what ever time period you want to define.

We'll call that X. Every POS had a different X sale rate.

3 yrs ago, every POS ordered their specific X qty to replenish what they sold over what ever time period you want to define.

New shooters came along. Panic came.

All of the POS now need to order their X+ y% to replenish. (y% = whatever % you want to define.)

Instead of getting X+y%..... The POS are getting less than X.

You keep describing demand as why supply is less. But that's not right.

Demand might be why there is less availability. But the supply should be at least the same.

The only way to explain that the POS are now being supplied less than their X sale rate of 3 yrs ago is that either the mfg are making less or that there is so many more POS now that the supply is being spread out thinner to a greater # of POS.

The supply from the mfg is the same or greater today than it was 3 yrs ago but the POS are being supplied less today than they were 3 yrs ago.

 

[JohnKSa]

Fair to say I know a thing or 2.

I'm not questioning your knowledge, just asking you to read what I've actually written rather than "pre-dismissing" me because you consider yourself an expert.

Instead of getting X+y%..... The POS are getting less than X.

I don't believe this is true and the numbers bear it out.

If you look at what various folks say that their local retailers are getting in and extrapolate those figures, the result compares very well with what is quoted as being the maximum possible .22LR supply available--which is considerably larger than .22LR production figures from before the shortage.

What I believe is that the people being queried are stating something along the lines of: "Oh yeah, we used to be able to order 50 bricks and get them all in that same week." I believe that is true. HOWEVER that kind of order was not the norm then, and when they really did place an order like that, it was offset by many, many other weeks when they only ordered a brick or two or maybe didn't order any at all.

If every store really had been placing these huge orders on a regular basis, when you extrapolate them up, you end up with a totally unrealistic figure for the overall supply.

Now everyone's trying to order the max every single order (all 10 original folks and some others want a piece of pie instead of just the original 5 persons who asked for a slice at the first party) and the result is that the maximum order being delivered to anyone (at a given party) is less than the "50 bricks" that they know from experience that they were able to order (at least once or twice) in the past. Just like the guy who asked for seconds found that he not only couldn't get seconds, he couldn't even get as much for his first helping as at the first party--EVEN though there was twice as much pie available in the second party.

Now if they could go to a party every day and get pie from many different sources, things would be different. But they can't. There's only one party a week and only so much pie available at each party. That means the more orders for pie at a party will result in less pie per person. That will be true even if the size of the pie goes up as long as it goes up less than the demand.

You keep describing demand as why supply is less. But that's not right.

Supply is more, a LOT more, but demand has increased by an even larger amount.

It's like the pie example. Everyone is getting less pie even though there's double the amount of pie available. Every person (retailer) in the example could correctly say that he got less pie (ammo) PER SHIPMENT (per party) than before. Does that mean supply is less? NOT AT ALL. Supply doubled in the pie example--and the overall amount of pie handed out doubled as well. But each person's share of the supply per party became much smaller because more people ordered pie.

More retailers are placing larger orders on a more frequent basis. That means MORE ORDERS and LARGER ORDERS on average. The result is that when the pie is split more ways, everybody who had been getting pie is now getting less pie (per party) than before even though there's more pie being made and eaten overall. NOT because the ACTUAL supply is lower but because each retailer's slice of the actual supply has decreased due to overall demand and order frequency increasing across the board.

The only way to explain that the POS are now being supplied less than their X sale rate of 3 yrs ago is that either the mfg are making less or that there is so many more POS now that the supply is being spread out thinner to a greater # of POS.

You can't just focus on the amount of a single order and pretend that's the whole story, you have to also understand that more orders OVERALL are being placed because pretty much every ammo retailer is placing an order every single time they can and are also basically reordering the maximum every time they place an order. Before the shortage, that wasn't happening.

It should be pretty simple to understand that more orders in a given amount of time (i.e. within a supply interval where only a fixed amount is available to ship) means that each order will get less delivered.

 

[Peter M. Eick]

John,

I admire your efforts and you are doing a great job explaining economics. I just wanted to pass along I appreciate your efforts to lay out the case like you have.

To me the problem is consumption. Supply was in balance with demand until the rise of the AR style 22's and the first big shortage. We never really recovered from the first big shortage, and with all of the high capacity (25 to 50 round) AR style guns running around today, demand has continued to outstrip supply for years.

My take is that without really significant new influx of production, 22's will be in scarce supply for many more years. The reason is there is now a bunch of pent up demand that will continue to scarf up 22's when they see them. I know I am down to my last 3 cases (15,000 rounds) and have been slowly looking around for more to add to the stash.

 

[danez71]

I'm not questioning your knowledge, just asking you to read what I've actually written rather than "pre-dismissing" me because you consider yourself an expert.

That's not the case at all. And if you knew me youd know I don't consider myself an expert in anything instead of throwing little unwarranted and baseless jabs.

If you look at what various folks say that their local retailers are getting in and extrapolate those figures, the result compares very well with what is quoted as being the maximum possible .22LR supply available--which is considerably larger than .22LR production figures from before the shortage.

And if you actually read what I wrote several times, your numbers make a lot of sense and I'm not disputing them. But yet you want to continue to spout the same stuff regurgitated using new words.

For the last time, I'm not disputing your #'s. They make a lot of sense.

I wont even reply to your thesis theory about pie consumption. Why? Because I already said a few times that I'm not disagreeing with your numbers. Your numbers certainly support your theory.

You can't just focus on the amount of a single order and pretend that's the whole story ...<snip> ....

This part is laughable. I'm not doing that at all. In fact I said you can pick the qty's and you can pick the run rate and you can pick the ... etc etc. You're a smart guy so I don't understand why youre ignoring words written on your screen.... or maybe youre forgetting that you read them?

....<un snip>.... you have to also understand that more orders OVERALL are being placed because pretty much every ammo retailer is placing an order every single time they can and are also basically reordering the maximum every time they place an order. Before the shortage, that wasn't happening.

If you understood POS inventory management you'd know that you're completely describing this incorrectly. They don't order 'the max' - what ever that is supposed to mean.

And they are Not placing orders "every single time they can" as you say. EDI (electronic data interchange) works 24/7/365(6) and I'm sure the mfg's emails and fax is on too. Do you seriously thing the mfgs are saying "orders can only be placed between 2-4 pm on Wed's and Fri's?

This is hinting that YOU are looking at this as a bunch of single orders rather than looking at run rates which I clearly said I was.

Mom and Pop shops might order 'the max' that they can afford but the larger retailers are using POS inventory management and that is simply not how it works.

There is no such thing as 'the max'. It has to be a number/qty.

Inventory levels are set by Corp. Each store using POS inventory management that automatically reorders to replenish to what ever the Corp bean counters and Marketing have decided they should have on hand.

The Corp Bean counters don't want more than that because it hurts cash flow, inventory turns, takes up space which is money... the list goes on. Each individual Walmart, Bass Pro, Cabela, etc etc store makes almost ZERO purchasing decisions.

From that point on, how much should be kept on hand at the POS is adjusted by the inventory management system using data from the POS system to keep in line to the parameters set by Corp to achieve the cash flow, inventory turns, etc etc, goals in order to keep the share holders happy.

Inventory is ordered to replenish from the POS the amount the POS needs to support the run rate at the POS.

This is all happening almost 'real-time'.

"What happens when the run rate is zero?..?... the whole system fails because by that example you don't need to order any if the run rate is zero" is the next question most asked.

The Corp Bean counters and Marketing established the original qty they wanted at the POS. It will keep trying to order enough to get to that level and that's it.

The ERP system (the Enterprise Resource Planning system (inventory management system on steroids) of which a POS system is part of) is Not adding up a bunch of IOU's too. Stores aren't handing out IOUs for 22lr and many/most websites are Not letting you place Back Orders for it either.

The POS system is only requesting enough to satisfy what the Corp bean counter established to have on hand... not 'the max'. ERP systems need a number. Not a description.

So while there is a pent up "demand/desire" by people, there isn't the same pent up "committed Back Orders recognized/accepted by the ammo mfg's" generated by the POS's through and ERP system .... simply because that's not how POS ERP systems work..... and its those POS systems that the retailers are using.

POS inventory management been in use for decades at grocery stores and has steadily made its why into retail over the last 15-20 yrs. It could really clean up your pie eating conundrum if you wanted to implement it though.

More retailers are placing larger orders on a more frequent basis. That means MORE ORDERS and LARGER ORDERS on average.

Again, by far and large, the regional and national retail chains are using POS inventory management. And what youre describing simply isn't accurate.
(You can even get open source systems through Google that are a cheap enough license for Mom and Pop shops could afford. Google XTuple)

There may be more retailers (and I suspect with the rise of Buds etc, there really are more POS and some are probably moving lots and lots of volume) which was part of my question to you that you never answered really and instead went to a pie eating party comparison.


But I digress.... It doesn't really matter in the end.


This is what really matters apparently.

Quote:
Instead of getting X+y%..... The POS are getting less than X.

I don't believe this is true and the numbers bear it out.

You choose to ignore what I'm (we) are saying and write a pie eating thesis that re-hashes simple concepts that I said from the beginning made a lot of sense and I wasn't disputing... BUT don't entirely make sense.

The 2 places I trust most have said to me "we used to get roughly X amount in every week..... now we get way way less than that same X amount."

Rather than believe that I can recite what was said to me, not you, you change it to 'What they're really replying with is that they used to get all they wanted and now they dont' and that I am misinterpreting that as "We used to receive X and now we receive less than X'.


Well, all I can say is that I was there and You weren't. I know what was said to Me, not You, and you don't know because you were not there... any of the times.


You just don't believe what I, and others, are saying is true. But want us to believe what you say is true.

Which is fine... I guess... for you. I'll choose to be a little more open minded and ask questions about different theories rather than regurgitating simple theories with vigor that will surly convince others that don't have much understanding of POS inventory management, especially people that enjoy pie, that you have all the answers.


I think that the 'perfect storm' did happen (which largely supports your theory) AND... AND... there are more POS... which I asked several posts ago but you replied as if people are POS's; but they aren't. And, as someone else pointed out that I forgot, the rise in AR 22lrs.


Boy... I can be long winded too.


I was hoping that my credibility could be taken at face value as I do yours but apparently not.

And that we could have a better discussion rather than reading your, as I said before, simple well laid out theory, over and over and over; but apparently not.

I was looking for a discussion of potential reasons; You were looking to convince me you're right.


You said:

Supply is more, a LOT more, but demand has increased by an even larger amount.

And:

Quote:

Instead of getting X+y%..... The POS are getting less than X.

I don't believe this is true <snip>.

That's your position and it certainly has some merit.

 

[markm_04]

Sounds like we are getting farther away from a firearms related discussion and more into an economics/business discussion.

 

[Andy2]

The supply of .22lr around where I live (Pacific Northwest, just down from the border) is still spotty.
Sometimes the local dealers have lots, in which case you can buy as much as you want, or they have very little and limit you to how much you can buy.
Yes I know I can buy online or go to a big box store and have a better chance of getting some, but I like to shop local.
None of the above was meant as a "slam" to those of you who shop online or at a big box store ... just my preference.
With supply being what it is, I just buy when I can ... no big deal.
Andy

 

[oneounceload]

Yes I know I can buy online or go to a big box store and have a better chance of getting some

Please mention where you can easily do that.

 

[Andy2]

A lot of guys around where I live buy .22lr at WalMart .
As for online ... I have seen ads where they advertise having .22lr in stock ready to ship.
Right now 5:52 Pacific time 12 April 15 Able ammo has about 15 choices of .22lr in stock ready to ship ammo
As I said, just not for me.
Andy

 

[JohnKSa]

...instead of throwing little unwarranted and baseless jabs.

Honestly, I can't really figure out your motives in this and I will admit to a certain level of frustration which may have shown a bit more than it should have in my last post. You respond to what I've said by saying that I've got it all wrong, but when I parse your detailed explanations of inventory management, nothing in them actually contradicts anything I've said.

And they are Not placing orders "every single time they can" as you say. EDI (electronic data interchange) works 24/7/365(6) and I'm sure the mfg's emails and fax is on too. Do you seriously thing the mfgs are saying "orders can only be placed between 2-4 pm on Wed's and Fri's?

Nope, but no matter how often they order generally they're only going to get shipments in at a certain frequency. At my WalMart they ONLY get ammo shipments in on Tuesday nights. So they can order as often as they want but they'll only get in one shipment a week. Effectively they are really only placing one order a week in terms of what is actually supplied to them.

They don't order 'the max' - what ever that is supposed to mean.

They're ordering what they need to restock completely (based on whatever the system says they should have in stock) and to meet whatever demand (units per time interval--bricks per week, if you will) the system projects. For each retailer that is going to be the most they would ever reorder--the max, if you will.

Since no one is getting that much in, what it amounts to is ordering as much as they can every supply interval and getting in the most that is available to them each supply interval.

Each store using POS inventory management that automatically reorders to replenish to what ever the Corp bean counters and Marketing have decided they should have on hand.

Which is to say that there is a maximum limit that they can order based on what the supply chain management in their organization has determined they should need.

I understand all that. That's precisely what I'm talking about when I say that they order the max every time.

Each individual Walmart, Bass Pro, Cabela, etc etc store makes almost ZERO purchasing decisions.

Which means that they can't order more than the inventory management will let them. So that means if they're completely out of stock all the time they will, in effect, be placing an order for that maximum amount every week. The max, if you will.

The 2 places I trust most have said to me "we used to get roughly X amount in every week..... now we get way way less than that same X amount."

Which tells me that you understand exactly what I was talking about when I discussed placing weekly orders in spite of the long lecture on why it's completely wrong for me to try to imply that supply and ordering is based on time intervals.

That aside, those two data points do not contradict anything I've said. Those two places would be analogous to the guy who had seconds at the first party. They sell more ammo than the average store and so they were getting resupplied more than the average store right up until everyone started running out and everyone wanted pie at once. Now they're not getting in as much as they used to because there's not as much available to ship to them after everyone who wants pie now gets their share.

Again, I really don't understand the confusion over how more orders being placed in a given amount of time can result in smaller shipments. Increasing supply will help, but if it can't be increased enough to meet the new demand then the average shipment will be less than it was before the demand increased. The retailers who previously received orders larger than the new average order (which is a function of the new supply/demand situation) will now get less than they used to.

...you replied as if people are POS's; but they aren't.

Nothing I've replied was meant to imply that individual consumers are retailers. The pie example uses people at a party as analogs of retailers but that's an example. It's not meant to imply that people are the same as retailers.

You were looking to convince me you're right.

What I'm trying to do is answer the questions and concerns of people who are convinced that the only a conspiracy could explain the current situation.

I was looking for a discussion of potential reasons...

I don't understand what you mean. What would be the point of discussing "potential reasons" when the actual reasons are patently obvious? Increased demand and an inability to increase supply sufficiently to equal the increased demand.

 

[oneounceload]

I don't understand what you mean. What would be the point of discussing "potential reasons" when the actual reasons are patently obvious? Increased demand and an inability to increase supply sufficiently to equal the increased demand.

Exactly - no conspiracy, just a HUGE increase in demand and folks are not buying what they would have before these "panics". It used to be you would stop by your local store and pick up a box or two to take with you and your kids to go shoot a little. Now folks are so worried there won't be any available that when they do find it, they're scarfing it up.

We ARE our own worst enemy. It would be nice if Walmart would change their pricing to reflect the current market situation.

 

[theothermike]

My local walmart seems to get 22s kinda regularly and sell them at about $30 a brick, limit 3 per day. But i rarely get there at the right time, the same people buy it up before anyone else gets a chance. Then they go sell it at gun shows and flee markets for $50+...

But luckily for me, my lgs sells for $30. But he only gets a few bricks every other week.

 

[HankB]

The 2 places I trust most have said to me "we used to get roughly X amount in every week..... now we get way way less than that same X amount."

That aside, those two data points do not contradict anything I've said. Those two places would be analogous to the guy who had seconds at the first party. They sell more ammo than the average store and so they were getting resupplied more than the average store right up until everyone started running out and everyone wanted pie at once. Now they're not getting in as much as they used to because there's not as much available to ship to them after everyone who wants pie now gets their share.

And as I've written before, several places have told me they are not getting in what they used to - and certain types of .22 rimfire ammo are not being shipped to them AT ALL - as in ZERO supply.

Now, everyone knows about supply and demand; over the years, most of us have seen sporadic shortages with gasoline, toilet paper, reloading components, and most recently green-tip 5.56mm ammo. BUT . . . this .22 situation has been going on for OVER TWO YEARS now.

I'd just like to ask people here one question: Here in the USA, other than during WWII when rationing was imposed, has anyone personally experienced this sort of YEARS LONG shortage of ANY OTHER common consumer product during their lifetime?

 

[P5 Guy]

Wall-Mart has become the wholesaler for the resellers.

 

[alsaqr]

Wall-Mart has become the wholesaler for the resellers.

That is a stone fact. Our two Mao-Mart stores never have .22 ammo in stock. The scalpers get it all.

The local Academy store receives regular shipments of .22 ammo. .22 ammo is on a shelf up front by the entrance, out of reach for all to see. There's a limit of two boxes per customer. There are always several brands on the shelf.

Bought some Blazer .22 LR for $2.49 per box. It's good stuff.

 

[oneounceload]

That is a stone fact. Our two Mao-Mart stores never have .22 ammo in stock. The scalpers get it all.

You sound jealous that others have beaten you to the delivery time. Those folks aren't scalpers - they are pricing the product at the current market value - if Walmart (Mao-Mart, really?), would price them at the current market value, this whole thing with them ceases immediately.