Gun Ownership and the 2008 Primaries
Gallup News Service ^ | May 22, 2007 | Jeffrey M. Jones
An analysis of recent Gallup polling suggests that gun owners could be a considerable factor in the Republican nomination process, but less so in the Democratic process. Although Rudy Giuliani is the front-runner for the GOP nomination, Republican gun owners are less likely than non-owners to support him. On the Democratic side, both gun owners and non-owners rate Hillary Clinton as their top choice for the party's presidential nomination by similar margins over the rest of the Democratic contenders.
In two polls conducted this month, Gallup asked partisans their preferences for their party's 2008 presidential nomination and whether they personally own any type of gun. According to the polls, roughly one in three Americans are gun owners, including 41% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats.
Republican Nomination
Since February, Giuliani has been the established front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. In the combined May data on rank-and-file Republicans' nomination preferences, he has a 32% to 21% edge over John McCain, and at least a 20 percentage-point advantage over every other candidate.
However, among Republican gun owners, Giuliani's front-running status is not as secure. Twenty-six percent of Republican gun owners say Giuliani is their first choice for the nomination, but 22% choose McCain, meaning the candidates are essentially tied, given the margin of error. Fred Thompson -- the former Tennessee senator who has not yet decided whether to enter the race -- would appear to be a relatively strong candidate among Republican gun owners because he is named as the top choice by 18% of this group. Mitt Romney's and Newt Gingrich's support among gun owners falls just shy of double digits, and all other candidates are at 2% or below...
Draw your own conclusions.
Link: