That is like the "Street Stoppers" and "Stopping Power" books by Evan Marshall (I used to read like the bible
) with "1 shot stop" percentages.Problem there is it excludes all the examples where more than one shot was required.
"I Feel Comfortable with My...."
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That is like the "Street Stoppers" and "Stopping Power" books by Evan Marshall (I used to read like the bible
) with "1 shot stop" percentages.Problem there is it excludes all the examples where more than one shot was required.
Trunk Monkey
member
This matches the link that Kleanbore posted to John KSA's thread.
According to The Rand Study of 2008 the police get hits about 30% of the time. It's important to remember that only accounts for the departments they studied AND they counted ANY hit as a hit. So, if the bad guy got shot in the foot (which would probably actually stop most people because you can't stand up) it counts as a hit. So those 30% of hits aren't even necessarily GOOD hits.
True story, there is a meat packing plant on the west side Colorado Springs. One morning eight or nine Buffalo got loose and were wandering around in a residential neighborhood. The local cops showed up and started shooting at the buffalo with their patrol rifles. It was a police shooting incident and every single round was accounted for.
The police fired TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTEEN rounds and hit all NINE Buffalo less than TWENTY times. They ended up having to call somebody from the zoo to come down with a bolt action .308 and put the Buffalo down.
So assuming a 30% hit rate and a 6 shot revolver, you're only likely to hit the guy that's coming after you twice AND there's no guarantee those will be good hits.
So most of the time I carry a glock 26 with a 12 round magazine in it for a total of 13 Rounds. IF I make 30% of my shots I'm going to hit the guy 4 times.
According to The Rand Study of 2008 the police get hits about 30% of the time. It's important to remember that only accounts for the departments they studied AND they counted ANY hit as a hit. So, if the bad guy got shot in the foot (which would probably actually stop most people because you can't stand up) it counts as a hit. So those 30% of hits aren't even necessarily GOOD hits.
True story, there is a meat packing plant on the west side Colorado Springs. One morning eight or nine Buffalo got loose and were wandering around in a residential neighborhood. The local cops showed up and started shooting at the buffalo with their patrol rifles. It was a police shooting incident and every single round was accounted for.
The police fired TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTEEN rounds and hit all NINE Buffalo less than TWENTY times. They ended up having to call somebody from the zoo to come down with a bolt action .308 and put the Buffalo down.
So assuming a 30% hit rate and a 6 shot revolver, you're only likely to hit the guy that's coming after you twice AND there's no guarantee those will be good hits.
So most of the time I carry a glock 26 with a 12 round magazine in it for a total of 13 Rounds. IF I make 30% of my shots I'm going to hit the guy 4 times.
But like you told me in another thread, nobody content carrying "less" gonna change their behavior.
Trunk Monkey
member
They're notView attachment 952005
But like you told me in another thread, nobody content carrying "less" gonna change their behavior.
Trunk Monkey
member
View attachment 952005
But like you told me in another thread, nobody content carrying "less" gonna change their behavior.
As I said above they're not.
The difference is I honest to God Could Not Care Less what other people do
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P5 Guy
Member
"I Feel Comfortable with My...."
Glock 26
Glock 26
Trunk Monkey
member
I know thos post is a month old but it brought up a point that I've heard several times.
Bad guys may not go take combat handgun courses like some of us do but there is plenty of evidence that they do practice.
There's also plenty of evidence that the bad guys have a lot more real-world experience than most of us do.
If you have a run-in with a bad guy it may be the first time that ever happens to you but it is entirely possible that you're not even going to be his first encounter of the night.
He's also very likely to be a lot more comfortable than you are using violence and he's not wondering if what he's about to do is an appropriate use of deadly force and is he going to be able to afford the legal defense afterwards.
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Trunk Monkey
member
I am stealing this post and going to make my own thread out of it
Old Dog
Member
I am honored.
I'm always struck by how many people I see in after-action interviews saying things like: "I can't believe it happened to me.", "I could hardly believe it was happening to me.", and "I had to convince myself it was really happening.".
This says to me that there's a strong tendency for people to avoid thinking about possible outcomes. They don't look at the things that happen to others and internalize the lesson that the same things could happen to them. I see people talking about using deadly force in terms that makes it plain they have given zero consideration to the idea that they might not live through a shooting or might be maimed for life if they do. I see people talking about guns as if they are magic talismans--as if their mere presence will guarantee a good outcome independent of their level of skill, situational awareness or level of preparation.
That says to me that for many people (most people?) how comfortable they feel as they go through their daily routine is mostly disconnected from reality. Their comfort level doesn't have much to do with the level of risk they are actually running. They are comfortable not because they are safe but because they refuse (at some level) to really acknowledge all the possible outcomes and are ignoring many of the risks that they are actually running.
It's easy for us to think that because we are more prepared than the average person, or the guy down the street, or the guy from work, that we are prepared enough. It will be enough if it allows us to deal with the risks that come our way effectively--not because we're more prepared than someone else.
It's easy for us to think that because we can't prepare to the nth degree (or don't want to or can't afford to) that we can just forget about that aspect of preparation and it won't be problematic if things go south. The fact that we can't prepare fully for something (or don't want to or can't afford to prepare fully) doesn't mean that we can just ignore that aspect of preparation with impunity.
It's easy for us to rationalize doing what we want to do to prepare and then calling it good. It's even easy for us to rationalize why doing more would be stupid or paranoid or ridiculous or a waste of time or money. That makes us feel better but it has no effect on reality.
Reality doesn't care what we like to do or don't like to do. It doesn't tailor a scenario for us based on our preparation preferences, on what kind of holster we choose to carry, on whether or not we have a spare magazine, on how much training we think is reasonable, on how fast we can draw our carry gun or how accurately we can fire it under stress. It won't change based on what makes us feel comfortable.
This says to me that there's a strong tendency for people to avoid thinking about possible outcomes. They don't look at the things that happen to others and internalize the lesson that the same things could happen to them. I see people talking about using deadly force in terms that makes it plain they have given zero consideration to the idea that they might not live through a shooting or might be maimed for life if they do. I see people talking about guns as if they are magic talismans--as if their mere presence will guarantee a good outcome independent of their level of skill, situational awareness or level of preparation.
That says to me that for many people (most people?) how comfortable they feel as they go through their daily routine is mostly disconnected from reality. Their comfort level doesn't have much to do with the level of risk they are actually running. They are comfortable not because they are safe but because they refuse (at some level) to really acknowledge all the possible outcomes and are ignoring many of the risks that they are actually running.
It's easy for us to think that because we are more prepared than the average person, or the guy down the street, or the guy from work, that we are prepared enough. It will be enough if it allows us to deal with the risks that come our way effectively--not because we're more prepared than someone else.
It's easy for us to think that because we can't prepare to the nth degree (or don't want to or can't afford to) that we can just forget about that aspect of preparation and it won't be problematic if things go south. The fact that we can't prepare fully for something (or don't want to or can't afford to prepare fully) doesn't mean that we can just ignore that aspect of preparation with impunity.
It's easy for us to rationalize doing what we want to do to prepare and then calling it good. It's even easy for us to rationalize why doing more would be stupid or paranoid or ridiculous or a waste of time or money. That makes us feel better but it has no effect on reality.
Reality doesn't care what we like to do or don't like to do. It doesn't tailor a scenario for us based on our preparation preferences, on what kind of holster we choose to carry, on whether or not we have a spare magazine, on how much training we think is reasonable, on how fast we can draw our carry gun or how accurately we can fire it under stress. It won't change based on what makes us feel comfortable.
Trunk Monkey
member
I posted the following in August
Before I was a Security Guard I worked for a medical implant manufacturer in Monument.
One night I was in my work area with all my coworkers and the fire alarm went off. We found out later that one of the maintenance techs had set off a smoke detector welding something but at the time nobody knew for sure what was going on.
I watched all of my coworkers freeze and start questioning "is this real?" Because previously all fire drills were announced.
I'm not claiming to be Joe hero but my brain snapped and and without even thinking about it I said "Everyone turn off your machines and let's go now." As soon as they received direction my co-workers followed the fire drill protocol to the letter. It was just a matter of getting them to overcome that part of their brain that said this isn't really happening.
I credit the hours of stress inoculation training I went through in the Army. That and the fact that I just had one of those lives where I always expect the worst.
Having said all that though, I also want to acknowledge all the posts that I've read here (some of them in this thread) where the poster is essentially saying "The odds are I'm never going to need a gun anyway so why should I bother to carry a full size handgun?"
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Ernie Bass
member
Well said mavracer. The scenarios on the internet just seem to keep growing more all the time. (By the way, I had my LCR9MM out the other day. I have not been shooting as often do conserving ammo, but just could not resist any longer the fun that comes with shooting that gun. 150 rds made for a good day. If the gun Gods came down and said I had to just carry a 5 shot Snubbie only, I would not have a problem at all. I love carrying a Snubbie, love shooting them. Thankfully I have a LCR22 which keeps my skills honed and provides a lot of good time during the Crapola that is going on now.
Trunk Monkey
member
Literally not ten minutes after I posted this
I was handed a perfect example
I was handed a perfect example
'splain.
Trunk Monkey
member
There was somebody who used to post here that had "Mindset, Skillset, Toolset" for a signature line.
And really, that's the truth of it.
If in the back of your mind you really don't believe that you're ever going to actually need a gun, it really doesn't matter what you're carrying.
Also if you believe in the back of your mind that all you have to do is show a gun and the bad guy's going to run away it doesn't matter what you're carrying.
I've said this here before but I have a friend who carries a BB gun with him when he goes out at 3 in the morning to walk his dog. I've told him numerous times that one of these days he's going to run into somebody who's carrying a real gun and they're going to ventilate him. He's actually told me several times "That'll never happen." There is nothing that I'm ever going to say it's going to change his mind until somebody shoots him.
I used to go to church with a guy who basically told me he carries a concealed handgun because it makes him feel like a cop.
There is really nothing in the world except for experience that can change that mindset
So if you want to LARP with a real gun, be my guest. Just remember the Tweakers aren't role playing
And really, that's the truth of it.
If in the back of your mind you really don't believe that you're ever going to actually need a gun, it really doesn't matter what you're carrying.
Also if you believe in the back of your mind that all you have to do is show a gun and the bad guy's going to run away it doesn't matter what you're carrying.
I've said this here before but I have a friend who carries a BB gun with him when he goes out at 3 in the morning to walk his dog. I've told him numerous times that one of these days he's going to run into somebody who's carrying a real gun and they're going to ventilate him. He's actually told me several times "That'll never happen." There is nothing that I'm ever going to say it's going to change his mind until somebody shoots him.
I used to go to church with a guy who basically told me he carries a concealed handgun because it makes him feel like a cop.
There is really nothing in the world except for experience that can change that mindset
So if you want to LARP with a real gun, be my guest. Just remember the Tweakers aren't role playing
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Ernie Bass
member
Getting ready to load up my range bag with my LCR22 and get my twice weekly shooting in. Hopefully make it back in one piece without getting ventilated by Tweakers with better skills than I have. Man,those guys are good. Fast to the draw, deadly accuracy and nerves of steel. And I guess that comes from the amount of training they do on a diligent schedule
.
In the last town I lived in for 40 years with 500,000 people, I never once met anyone that had actually been in a shooting or had to even draw a gun. I actually did my best to keep up with the shooting etc. as I read crime reports as part of my job for years. There really were not many shooting. The one's I did see were mostly domestic shooting, suicide, random shooting where typically one shot was used. Accidental or negligent discharges etc. Never read about any shoot outs other than for some police officers or maybe down in the hood, but even then not many rounds fired unless a drive by shooting. From what I have seen most of the victims were shot by one shooter and I believe they might have never occurred with more situational awareness.
I do believe the most vulnerable to a shooting are women. Domestic shooting, at the home at at the work place. Road rage is another key area, but again most have been done with one shot.
I am getting ready to leave and maybe I am a dead man walking. I might actually come across two or more steely eyed Tweakers that want a showdown. Hopefully, I will make home. The indoor range I go to does scare me more than any tweakers as the amount of idiots that go there now are down right scary.
What I am more concerned about is the Jackass with a Drivers license and a Cell Phone. 13 teens killed each day from text messaging and that does not include the people killed by them. And not to even mention the STUPID people in general that use them.
Carry what you feel you need, I will carry what I choose and I wish you well. If I had the money, I would bet a million dollars to someone's $10.00 that I do not get into a shoot out with multiple tweakers before I get home. I would not make that bet against a Driver with a Phone. Each to his own.
If you see one of my post after today, you know I made it, if not, then the tweakers got me. I have lived a good happy life, we all gotta die some time.
.
In the last town I lived in for 40 years with 500,000 people, I never once met anyone that had actually been in a shooting or had to even draw a gun. I actually did my best to keep up with the shooting etc. as I read crime reports as part of my job for years. There really were not many shooting. The one's I did see were mostly domestic shooting, suicide, random shooting where typically one shot was used. Accidental or negligent discharges etc. Never read about any shoot outs other than for some police officers or maybe down in the hood, but even then not many rounds fired unless a drive by shooting. From what I have seen most of the victims were shot by one shooter and I believe they might have never occurred with more situational awareness.
I do believe the most vulnerable to a shooting are women. Domestic shooting, at the home at at the work place. Road rage is another key area, but again most have been done with one shot.
I am getting ready to leave and maybe I am a dead man walking. I might actually come across two or more steely eyed Tweakers that want a showdown. Hopefully, I will make home. The indoor range I go to does scare me more than any tweakers as the amount of idiots that go there now are down right scary.
What I am more concerned about is the Jackass with a Drivers license and a Cell Phone. 13 teens killed each day from text messaging and that does not include the people killed by them. And not to even mention the STUPID people in general that use them.
Carry what you feel you need, I will carry what I choose and I wish you well. If I had the money, I would bet a million dollars to someone's $10.00 that I do not get into a shoot out with multiple tweakers before I get home. I would not make that bet against a Driver with a Phone. Each to his own.
If you see one of my post after today, you know I made it, if not, then the tweakers got me. I have lived a good happy life, we all gotta die some time.
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Read the November Rangemaster Newsletter article about risk exposure over time.
I do not carry a gun every day because I think the likelihood of my needing it on any one day is any greater than "far less than remote".
I do not carry a gun every day because I think the likelihood of my needing it this year is any greater than "less than remote".
But that likelihood can not affect what I would need should I ever need it.
And the potential consequences of my not being able to address such an emergency are extremely severe.
Ernie Bass
member
Obviously the future is changing fast. Yes, I may carry one of my other guns from the way things are going. On trips now I carry a gun with more capacity and a 20ga shotgun with a Pistol grip. But not because of tweaker's or just your general bad guy.
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I'm not sure what kinds of changes would cause one to want a different concealable defensive firearm, should the need arise.
Trunk Monkey
member
Yes, I guess that could be taken in the vein of "it won't happen to me". I took it as a general discussion of risk analysis.
Decades ago, when certain areas around here were far safer than they are today, they were nonetheless sufficiently worrisome to me to cause me to avoid them. Friends said "I've never had a problem down there at night", and they went anyway.
Concealed carry became lawful more than a decade ago. But that has not changed any of my decisions on where to go or where not to go.
It has simply given me one more possible advantage should something untoward happen, provided that i detect, recognize, and react to the situation timely and effectively.
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