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Local Gun Show wasn't too busy.

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by Captcurt, Jul 13, 2020.

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  1. Ed Ames

    Ed Ames Member

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    Yes, COVID is less deadly to the young. Let’s explore what that means.

    The case fatality rate for children 0-14 appears to be somewhere around 0.026%. Put that in perspective: there are 60,000,000 people in that category, so by advocating for ignoring measures that have worked worldwide to control infections you are advocating for the death of about 15,800 children 14 and under.

    To make you feel a bit better about that, let’s look at people age 15-44. The case fatality rate for that group is about 2.519%. Since there are about 130,000,000 people in that age group, you are looking at potentially 3,274,700 deaths amongst people aged 15-44.

    We’re at a potential 3,290,500 deaths for people under 45 at this point, using information gathered through the 138,000 or so deaths already counted In the USA so far (and ignoring the fact that there is good evidence to support that being a significant undercount).

    That’s about 1% of the total population. And yes, that’s based on case fatality rates, and infection fatality rates are generally lower, but at this point the CDC is adjusting IFR upwards not downwards so there is no guarantee it’ll be significantly lower. But let’s quarter the number. .25 percent of the population under 45.

    Then we get into this little detail: there is growing evidence that this isn’t a “one and done” risk. You take your chance now, and three or four months later you are back in the at-risk pool again. Meaning you might face that risk up to 4 times a year. But let’s say it’s just twice a year. If that turns out to be the case we aren’t looking at just .25% of the under-45 population dying, but an attrition rate of 0.5% of the under 45 population every year. So you could have 1,645,250 die in a year, and then another 1,628,79o die the following year, and so on.

    Remember: humanity has never actually made a coronavirus vaccine. Not one that was safe to use. All this talk about vaccines by next year? Well that’s the hope, but we were also supposed to have an HIV vaccine in the 1980s and here we are 30+ years later without one.

    I won’t get into the older people since you apparently don’t care if they die, but it is worse for them. Which, to be blunt, means most of you reading this.

    And on the other hand you have both a scientific consensus that masks work, and examples of it working in other countries. Japan has gone through this whole thing with just masks and social distancing (they didn’t shut down but they had basically 100% mask wearing compliance) and they are standing at around 1000 dead in a population of about 126,500,000 people on a tiny sliver of land. We have less than 3 times the population and 138+ times the deaths, and I guarantee our death count is going to skyrocket in a few weeks as the 60,000 new cases and climbing we’re adding per day with a 4% overall case fatality rate works its way through the course of the disease (it takes weeks to run its course) and turns into 2,400 dead per day.

    For scale: the US lost about 4400 people in Iraq from 2003 to 2011. That’s both the war and occupation. The US is currently losing that many people per week, and we’re on track to lose more than that every two days soon.

    Edit to add another little reality check. At this point about 1% of the US population has had covid. About half of those still do. Of the half who no longer have covid, somewhere between 8% and 10% are dead. That means that potentially just in the people who are already infected today we have another 138,000 deaths waiting to happen, and we’re adding a lot of new cases every day.

    So man up and wear a mask.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2020
  2. toivo

    toivo Member

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    This. You could have it and be spreading it without knowing it. That's the whole point of masks.
     
  3. toivo

    toivo Member

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    Could you please show us some?
     
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  4. Steve S.

    Steve S. Member

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    I am in the super high-risk group (65+, cancer treatment and such); I wear a mask (so does my wife) and disinfect my hands religiously. I don’t care if others wear a mask, I would not try to impose my survival on others as several have suggested here - I don’t pretend to be a sand pounder. It is my responsibility to survive and I will try to do that with my best effort. Expecting others to have any caring is laughable these days, some are just in your face people and are mad at the world - they are angry and have something to prove. They look for fights where there are none and live a life projecting their anger onto others. You cannot give what you do not have - if all you have is in your face anger, then that is what others will get. One thing about in your face people, one day they will eventually meet up with the wrong person.....!
     
  5. DoubleMag

    DoubleMag Member

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    https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog...ientation-affect-its-ability-capture-viruses/

    Masks DO work, if properly sealed on edges. Yes, even the el-cheapo blue disposable/surgical ones. In the linked article above ^^, about half way down is results where they shot actual particles into the mask. Picture shows 4 masks, numbers etc. And it was up in the mid-hi 90% effective. Using an actual metering instrument to record the data was all I needed to see. Again the problem is, the seal around the edges, NOT the mask itself dear god, in the previous page they tested a doubled fold PLAIN OL KITCHEN PAPER TOWEL and it worked!

    But, ppl will gravitate to what THEY want to do, live or die, sink or swim, I'll drink , smoke, speed, eat 6 lbs a bacon a day.

    Yupp I know the micron size of the covid-19 is smaller, but it travels via MOISTURE DROPLETS, which is a much bigger droplet size. If it was a pure atomized disease transmission MILLIONS would be sick/dead by now.

    A plain roll of surgical tape (I prefer cloth) to the left and right of the nose bridge, sides, and one strip on bottom/chin while *NOT* providing a 130% seal, is reasonable to make the $.40 masks at your local XXMart work. If you see me at OUR gunshow, that's how I'll be dressed:)

    Soapbox back under the desk, I M going outside to sight in a 22LR b4 it gets too hot:)
     
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  6. Speedo66

    Speedo66 Member

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    You can talk until you're blue in the face about real science, but the same conspiracy theory people will ignore.

    They'll still disdain masks, and talk about them as a gov't plot to enslave people.

    Darwin is alive and well, unfortunately, they'll take others with them.
     
  7. FFGColorado

    FFGColorado Member

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    Just for info..Arkansas has 1/2 the population of Colorado but almost the same number of positives..
     
  8. FFGColorado

    FFGColorado Member

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    About 4% in the US..known cases vs deaths..from toddlers to elderly...

    OBTW-USA, 4% of the world's population and 26% of the world's COVID infections and deaths. Yup, just a way 'to manipulate the population', wearing that piece of cloth on your face(forehead slap)...
    YUP, And remember, the vaccine will have a micro chip in it, made by Bill Gates so the government can 'track' you...

    Read post 26, better overview than mine.
     
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2020
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  9. S&W620

    S&W620 Member

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    I’ve always found it odd that anyone in a group of people who commit to carrying a gun around daily as a matter of protecting themselves and their loved ones can also be so opposed to wearing a cheap piece of cloth on their face to do the same thing.

    At least statistically you’re exponentially more likely to die from this virus than from whatever scenario we all think we need a pistol for.

    Now, before some big brained person thinks I’m implying we don’t need a gun, I’m not. I’m saying we should have both.
     
  10. Captcurt

    Captcurt Member

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    I'm surprised the mods haven't shut this down. I never posted this to get a debate about mask.
     
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  11. Ed Ames

    Ed Ames Member

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    At the end of the day what is a society except people who have agreed to limit their behaviors? We all agree not to kill, steal, et cetera, not because those things harm the ones doing them but because as long as everyone abides by those rules we’re all safer. If people break the rules, we punish ... fine, imprison, or in extreme cases kill ... the ones who break the rules. We do this with the understanding that the mutual benefit of almost everyone accepting some limits outweighs the personal costs of following those limits.

    Your comment is the equivalent of saying you wouldn’t ask people not to steal your car, and if they are able to steal it that’s your fault so they should be allowed to do so. You have no security except what you can personally enforce. In that case, why do we have police, courts, laws and all of that?

    Even the most ardent libertarian thinks there is a social contract and that government has a role in enforcing that contract. What you are describing is Tooth and Claw anarchy.
     
  12. Jack B.

    Jack B. Member

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    I went to a gun show a couple of years ago. Probably won't go again. It had more candy for sale on display than anything gun related. What a waste of time and money. This was at a National Guard Armory. I just expected to see gun stuff.
     
  13. dh1633pm

    dh1633pm Member

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    Thread got a little off the path on the politics of masks. :( The fact that a gun show was held was good to hear. Gun shows here are usually crowded with lines out the door. I am not how many would attend this year. Something are higher at the shows and other things less. I had a friend that used to have a big table at the Syracuse show. Many years I would help him. He sold a lot of rifles at the show. He marked everything up by a flat 10% and made a good profit by volume.
     
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  14. GEM

    GEM Moderator Staff Member

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    Yep, this is a mask discussion now and not a General Gun discussion.

    Closed and wear a mask.
     
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