Suppose a nuclear device is detontated in Manhattan...

[Mac Attack]

I didn't read through most of the posts but I sincerely doubt anything would happen. Think about it, even if you could identify who or where the nuke came from, how does the US justify a retaliatory attack against another county. Can the US conceivably retaliate against a country were the terrorists hide among the innocent? If the US did retaliate in kind - nuke for nuke - the rest of the nations of the world would ostracize the US with the exception of the UK and a few other countries. After all the US is considered to be one of the more civilized counties where every person is innocent until proven guilty and all that stuff. If you thought the US had enemies out to get us now just then what would happen then!

Mac

 

[Sean Smith]

Anthrax can be treated. Smallpox can be prevented. There ain't no cure for a nuclear blast.

That assumes they are unmodified strains. That also assumes that the people have a reason to know they have Anthrax and seek treatment during the small window of time before death is more or less certain no matter what you do.

Inhalation anthrax develops when the bacterial organism is inhaled into the lungs. A progressive infection follows. Since inhalation anthrax is usually not diagnosed in time for treatment, the mortality rate in the United States is 90-100%. A b iological warfare attack with anthrax spores delivered by aerosol would cause inhalation anthrax, an extraordinarily rare form of the naturally occurring disease.

A lethal dose of anthrax is considered to be 10,000 spores; 80 percent of a population that inhaled such a dose would die. Less than one millionth of a gram is invariably fatal within five days to a week after exposure. According to an estimate by the US Congress's Office of Technology Assessment, 100 kilograms of anthrax, released from a low-flying aircraft over a large city on a clear, calm night, could kill one to three million people.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/bw/agent.htm#b02

The recent Anthrax attacks mostly only caused cutaneous Anthrax, since the Anthrax powder was just delivered in envelopes instead of sprayed in the air. Cutaneous Anthrax only has a mortality rate of 10-20% without treatment (and about 1% with treatment). Just mailing Anthrax to folks is a sub-optimal delivery system, lucky for us.

The point, for those who missed it, is that things can get ALOT worse long before the terrorists get a nuke.

 

[Gewehr98]

Using that thought process...

You can't freeze time immediately after the flash and head for another town. You pretty much have to be there already. But what if the blast is in the other town? Doh.

Let's see. You can't freeze time immediately after the pathogens are released and head for another town. You pretty much have to be there already. (You're already infected) But what if the pathogens are in the other town? Doh.

Once again.

Time = Minimize time spent in the area of ionizing radiation. Also, radiation levels drop considerably as the clock progresses after time zero.

Distance = Put distance between yourself and the source of the radiation. Activity drops off exponentially with distance.

Shielding = The nuclear blast, and subsequent daughter products of the fission, produce several types of ionizing radiation. Alpha, Beta, and Gamma radiation can be stopped by a variety of shielding. The dead layer of skin on the human epidermis will stop Alpha radiation. Beta doesn't need much more than that. Gamma is closer to an X-Ray in energy, so it requires the heaviest of shielding, lead and concrete are the most effective. Alpha and Beta radiation is considered the worst health risk, as they pose an ingestion hazard to the human physiology.

I'd much rather get involved in a nuclear incident, with all the isotopes as documented from the history of nuclear tests, than ever get into the mix with either a chemical or biological weapon. In the case of the latter, you'd be dead before you ever knew what killed you.

Then again, Fix, I'm licensed by the NRC, and my job is to fly the above jet into the radioactive debris cloud created by a nuclear event to get a good forensic sample, and diagram the cloud as it heads towards population centers. You'd say I was a dead man walking (flying?). We've been doing this since 1947, so I'd wager to say we're well aware of what the risks are, and have precautions in place to guard against needless exposure. That's the purpose of that aircraft, remember Chernobyl? Bet you didn't know your government did such things, did you?

I've learned that there's a variety of professionals on forums like THR. Fix, you'd be surprised to know what some folks here do for a living.

 

[Baba Louie]

Suppose we wake up one morning to the news that a nuclear bomb has been detonated outside the New York Stock Exchange.

I'd venture an opinion that the Dow-Jones would drop like a rock and I'd want to find out who'd been selling short the previous day.

 

[fix]

Then again, Fix, I'm licensed by the NRC, and my job is to fly the above jet into the radioactive debris cloud created by a nuclear event to get a good forensic sample, and diagram the cloud as it heads towards population centers.

That probably explains your lack of fear regarding the matter. To you, it is not unknown. I'm mainly talking about the direct effects of the blast anyway. The chemical threat really doesn't bother me as much. The bio threat does to some extent, but not as much as large explosions. We have the infrastructure to deal with a bio or chem threat (not as well as we'd all like, but there's something), but a nuclear blast in a large metro area would have a good chance of physically destroying key pieces of that very infrastructure.

 

[fix]

Bet you didn't know your government did such things, did you?

Honestly, I had no idea that survey teams were sent directly into the...er...cloud, for lack of a better term. Never really thought about that. Makes sense though. How else would you be able to take measurements? Kinda like a hurricane hunter plane. Interesting indeed.

 

[Paco]

Gewehr98:

-Doesn't gamma rays give super powers??? I heard that there was a rash of giant ant attacks in the 50's. Is this true?




-Sorry, I couldn't help myself...


-I've been told that the only true WMD is the nuclear device and all the other ones fall under area-deprival??? weapons meaning it helps keep the enemy from staying in or going to a certain area and help demoralize. Weaponized anthrax spray or dust can be affected by rain, cold, prevailing winds etc. Same for chemicals. The nuclear bomb functions come rain or shine, through snow and sleet, kinda like the postal service! Talk about reliable!

-Hulk

 

[LoneStranger]

There is an old saying about the only thing a lock being good for is to keep honest people honest. Pretty much the same thing can be said for the use of WMD's in North America. If someone wants to do it bad enough they will find a way to do it.

The trick is not in devoting all of your efforts to building better locks but in making it so the BG's don't develope the desire to do it. Powers of persuasion and dissuasion will have a greater effect in today's modern society than just having a bigger club. Part of why they have always said 'The Pen is Mighter than the Sword!"

The problem with a small nuke hit at the NYSE is probably not the physical damage that will result. I would expect all those buildings would do a fairly good job of soaking up the blast.
More damaging is the psychological damage that would result. I doubt that a lot of the people who are at the home office in NYC would have the wherewithtal to rebound from the smackdown.

People who have studied various types of organizations have always made a big deal out of highly centralized, closely controlled, top-down management systems. Along the lines of "When the Boss says jump, you ask how high". While there is a lot to recommend these systems you must always be aware of the one premier problem with them which is "You can never, ever make a mistake with such a system." If you do the failure will be multiplied thru the system just like the proper decisions.

Up until fairly recently most large corporations and other similiar entities were actually spread out with regional HQ's all over the place. This allowed a lot of duplication of effort but also allowed flexibility to respond to localized problems. You just couldn't cut off one head and kill the beast.

With the centralization that has occurred over the last 25+/- years due to mergers and newer technologies the country might not have the ability to absorb a NYC strike.

The major option that is available is for numerous organizations to duplicate their operations in NYC and other single source areas around the country. As a note, one of the major exchanges was proud that they had duplicated their facility, in case something happens, before the WTC attacks. The problem was that the duplicate was within several miles of the WTC. Means the duplicate was affected by the WTC.

This diversification was actually one of the strengths that the Founding Fathers built into our society. Not just one state controlled, but rather all the states had the ability to pick up the baton and run.

 

[fallingblock]

Hello Paco....

"It's the fear driven stampede an act like this wpuld produce that would be the greatest damage it to the country. Fear, fear and more fear..."
************************************************************

With all due respect, I don't think such a stampede would be inevitable, nor do I believe the damage would be significant to the rest of the U.S..

There was some panic in California following Pearl Harbor, lots of undercurrents of panic during the Cuban missle crisis, but the outcome of such panic has been the resolve to weather the crisis and triumph.

A tactical nuclear device detonated in NYC would certainly panic a lot of folks and damage some corporation offices as well as the NYSE, but with adequate forward planning the damage would be inconsequential to the remainder of the U.S.A.


Fudgie Ghost:

The amazing thing about 'escaping' NYC is that once I had settled here in remote central Australia, I find that my nearest two neighbors to the west are native New Yorkers!

I'm not sure there is any significance in that, except that when some NYC folks get tired of the place, some of 'em seriously leave.


************************************************************
"As to the amount of radioactivity at the blast site: Look, the soccer moms where I live are so obsessed with "safety" and their own neuroses (the wearing of perfume is an issue--offensive or causes them problems...."
************************************************************

Yes, I'm certainly familiar with the folks you describe. The ones who worry about the drinking straws in fast food places.

Any major attack on NYC would result in a steep learning curve for these soccer moms, and that wouldn't be pretty.

 

[R.H. Lee]

November 1, 2004

"Last weeks nuclear explosion in lower Manhattan continues to push refugees out of the area. Millions have arrived in Connecticut and New Jersey where tent cities have been set up to provide for basic care. Many
are suffering radiation sickness. The radioactive cloud continues southward, along the Atlantic seaboard. Rescue workers are still unable to enter ground zero. Banking activity has resumed in the rest of the nation, although NYSE activity has been suspended indefinetly.

The status of next weeks Presidential election is as yet unknown. Democratic Presidential hopeful John Kerry is demanding that the election go forward, provided that the electoral votes from the affected states be awarded to him based on recent polling. He claims his constituency would otherwise not be represented.

Meanwhile satellite imagery shows a massive movement of troops across Red China."

More at 11:00.........

 

[BigG]

About the original question: I keep trying to think of a downside and, I'm sorry! Apologies to any good NYers who may be out there.

 

[longeyes]

It's fascinating, I must admit, to read here that massive damage to New York would not affect most of America. I think that's way wrong.

But to assume that terrorists are going to confine their attacks to high-visibility "symbolic" targets is naive. An organized array of attacks on critical U.S. infrastructure would very quickly make clear to most Americans just how interdependent they are. Take out a few major truck routes, just one example, and you are looking at national chaos.

As for bioterror, well...

How do you deal with wacked-out tribalists? I know of only one rational solution: marry them all into the Kennedy family.

 

[7.62FullMetalJacket]

emocratic Presidential hopeful John Kerry is demanding that the election go forward, provided that the electoral votes from the affected states be awarded to him based on recent polling.

Having "unique" and "beneficial" methods for voting has not stopped them before.

Meanwhile satellite imagery shows a massive movement of troops across Red China.

 

[fix]

The status of next weeks Presidential election is as yet unknown. Democratic Presidential hopeful John Kerry is demanding that the election go forward, provided that the electoral votes from the affected states be awarded to him based on recent polling. He claims his constituency would otherwise not be represented.

Ya know what? I don't think that part is very far fetched. :banghead:

 

[R.H. Lee]

"In other news from the Middle East, explosions rocked Tel Aviv today. It is believed that hijacked aircraft from Syria and Iran crashed into the downtown area. Egypt has denied involvement.

Also, this just breaking....

There are early reports of heavy fighting outside the capital city of Riyad, Saudi Arabia. Although communication with the city has been cut off, there is speculation that the Royal Family may be under attack by radical Islamic factions within the capital.

More as news becomes available."

 

[R.H. Lee]

"We have more on that story out of Saudi Arabia. Insurgent Sheik al Nassim el Fatwa has declared himself the ruler of Saudi Arabia, after announcing the execution of the Royal Family. The Sheik has called for the gathering of all faithful Muslims at Mecca, and has ordered the exportation of oil to the western world stopped.

Earlier this year President Bush withdrew all U.S. troops from Iraq, and released all strategic oil reserves in an election year effort to reduce divisiveness and lower the price of gasoline."

 

[Fudgie Ghost]

RileyMc: Maybe YOU should write a book!

Looks like you've got one already half written!


BigG: oh, well, --- if and when this does happen, will you say a prayer for poor Fudgie Ghost then? I may be buried under tons of rubble in the subway and need all the help I can get-----!

 

[BigG]

Sure, Fudgie, I said apologies to any good Nooyawkers that may be out there.

 

[R.H. Lee]

"After an emergency meeting of Israel's Knesset, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon vowed a nuclear response to yesterday's attacks on Tel Aviv.
Mr Sharon said that unspecified targets in Iran and Syria would be hit unless 'those responsible were produced within 72 hours'.

And in Red China, satellite imagery shows increasing activity in and around suspected ICBM launching sites. Chinese Premier Xhao Huang Ping denies the reports, and accuses the west of an 'aggressive imperialist posture'"

 

[R.H. Lee]

November 2, 2004

"North Korean President Yong Ping Pong today denied reports of his country's troops massing on the border to the south. 30,000 U.S. troops along the demilitarized zone have been placed on high alert.

Meanwhile, there are sketchy reports of incursions into the U.S., along the Arizona and Texas borders, of persons unknown. Eyewitnesses say several roving bands dressed in uniforms of the Mexican military, and armed with fully automatic weapons, have attacked remote ranches in the United States."

 

[ravinraven]

November 2, 2004

"Michael Jackson's lawyers say the seventy-nine new accusations by several boys will not delay the trial set to begin early in 2008."

 

[Paco]

RileyMc and Ravinraven,

-Ok fellas, now hold hands, close your eyes and say after me:

-There's no place like home...
-There's no place like home.
There's no place like home!

-Now click your heels three times...

 

[Michigander]

This just in: Russian President Putin, in a press release this morning, said that he and his intelligence services have proof that the nuclear device detonated in New York City was built by the US Military and was a deliberate act by the US Government. Putin is quoted as saying in a later interview, "in the European intelligence circles, it was well known that such a plan could be carried out by the US Government and in turn the US Government could blame their designated targets."

 

[ravinraven]

Waaaahh!

Hey, paco! rileyMc won't hold hands with me!

I'm telling too!

rr

 

[cratz2]

I guess I have a less hopeful outlook than many of you. The Muslims have been fighting the Jews ever since there have been Muslims... long before the 20th century. There is no non-facist answer to the problems of American security.

Close up our borders, build a wall between the US and Mexico, remove anyone that has come to the United States in the last 30 years and issue a strong suggestion that any Americans in hostile countries come home. Foreigners can't turn US dollars into gold and foreign-owned US property is no longer foreign owned. The US is now an export country only. Pull out of every convention and treaty we've signed and renounce support of the state of Israel. We tack up our new terms on the UNs doors that says, 'No more Mr Nice Guy!' Take the stance that basically says 'Islam believes that any non-Muslims are below Muslims and we believe that non Americans are below Americans. If you harm one American on American soil, you will lose a city. Period.

Of course, in outing 30 years of immigrants we will lose many fine people who would never cause us harm. We will lose many trade agreements and other changes will need to be made and our economy will be devastated over the short term. Suicides will sky rocket but, we'll have to go back to producing everything sold in WalMart currently made in China.

I think it is really a losing battle. Say you take out the middle east... what about Indonesia? Largest Muslim population, hate the US and have tons of money. What about the millions of Muslims throughout Europe and other places outside the Middle East? The desire to conquer can't be defeated. EVER! A thousand years of ingrained tribal loyalty which they believe is supported and encouraged by God... how do you hope to squelch that?