Will the AR ever have competition?

[giggitygiggity]

Undoubtedly, the AR is most popular modern sporting rifle. What I mean is that although The design was created about 50 years ago, it is popular today and more and more manufacturers are churning out ARs. I am not saying that the AR is the best modern sporting rifle, but I would say that it blows away all others when it comes down to popularity, versatility, and an unparalleled third party aftermarket. Do you believe that we will ever see the popularity, versatility, and aftermarket of the AR contended? For instance, will we have companies copying the Tavor or another popular modern sporting rifle, leading to everyone making their own flavor of that rifle and more accessories than one can imagine? I'm sure there's a lot that comes into play such as production costs, patents, etc, but I'd love to hear what THR members think.

 

[Welding Rod]

No, not until something new comes along that outclasses the traditional brass case / lead & copper bullet / loose propellant cartridge.

 

[rcmodel]

Not in my lifetime.

And probably not in anyone alive today's lifetime either.

 

[Jackal]

Yes it will, 50 years after the next military rifle is adopted. I'll be dead. My kids (if I had any) would likely be old when it happens.

 

[taliv]

i think we're 5-10 years (or 2 administrations) away from the mil adopting something newer and "better". more electric, more 'smart', features from trackingpoint, etc

 

[Panzerschwein]

I don't think so.

The AR, much like the 1911 is now, will be still on top a century from now.

It will be like the flintlock. If you were born in 1700, everybody had a flintlock. Then your son would have a flintlock, then you die... then your son dies, the year is about 1800 now... and the flintlock musket still reigns supreme.

 

[rcmodel]

I would say after the last 10 years or so of buying and hoarding, the AR-15 has truly become 'Americas Rifle'.

There are enough complete rifles, Lowers, Uppers, barrels, parts kits, furniture, and mags squirreled away already for new ones to still being built in the next century!

As long as guns, ammo, or reloading supplies are still legal to buy or own in the U.S.A.??

There will still be plenty of AR-15's in operation 100 or 200 years from now.

(And, even if they aren't legal by then, their will still be half a gazillion of them still around.)

rc

 

[coondogger]

Well I just read where the Ak-47 is beginning to outsell the AR-15 and is, in fact, displacing the AR as America's trendy rifle.

 

[kcofohio]

Well I just read where the Ak-47 is beginning to outsell the AR-15 and is, in fact, displacing the AR as America's trendy rifle.

Where did you see that?

 

[Tirod]

AK? Not hardly. Limiting Russian imports of them and their ammo is causing the prices to go up. That doesn't make them more popular.

It's going to take the adoption by the military to make it popular. One issue that could likely happen with the next soldier's rifle is that the .Gov retains the TDP completely this time with no outside vendors allowed. If it's the LSAT design there would be proprietary patents and development work to back that up.

As various types of gear mature as a group, there is usually one specific design that tends to dominate the class and it's the one that holds out longest. It's the best at what it does. In binoculars the porro prism design has competition with roof prism but still holds their own. Last pair I got were Leupolds with lenses held in place by overmolding same at Steiners, BAK 4 prisms, under $100. They can play with the lenses or the housing but the light path and focusing design has been around a long time.

Have we seen any significant shift in eyeglasses over the last century? Contact and lasik made inroads but wear and expense have their offsets. Or how about the rubber tire we drive on? Still cord plies and tread segments molded into a carcass inflated with air mounted on a rim attached to a hub. Been that way for a long time.

We've had all sorts of newer designs in handguns but what dominates? Browning link or ramp locking up on barrel lug. Polymer didn't change that, neither did gas or roller delay.

Some things just work - pistons with rings in bores assembled into engines. Oh wait, the AR has that, too. Stuff that just works. I see the AR as being the gun design that is the technical plateau for self loading rifles. Anything you do to change it makes it worse, not better. It's going to be around for a LONG time because of it. Not liking or using it will be akin to not having rubber tires on your car or not using binoculars. Good luck with that.

 

[jakk280rem]

Like was said, adoption by the us military is a gigantic component. Add to that the expiration of the tdp, a ramp in economy of scale, and then only if it's cheaper to the buyer. So, someday eventually maybe. 50-100 years or so.

And all of that is discounting the already existing ar competition like galil, tavor, scar, mini-14 which combined amount to a quarter or less of total ar sales.

 

[rbernie]

The AR has benefitted from decades of standardization and the (slow at first, rapid since 2004) development of a broad industrial base. No rifle platform currently in production or on the drawing board has the support within the US industrial base that the AR possess.

The only way that a new rifle can compete with the AR in terms of breadth/depth of the offerings is if it is supported by an equivalent industrial base. And that industrial base will only be created with strong demand, and the sharing of an open/non-proprietary technical specification / data package.

 

[Schwing]

I'm still stuck back on the 1894 so I still have a few years to discover the AR15

 

[Llama Bob]

I think the civilian market would happily switch (lead by competitive shooters) IF something better came along. Nothing better has. The AR platform has no major problems - it's the most accurate option, is reliable, is ergonomic for the vast majority of the population, comes in a wide range of calibers when the AR10 is taken into account, works fine suppressed, scopes easily and can run high quality irons, and comes in a wide range of size options from PDWs to large carbines/small rifles.

Most of the competitors I've seen try to improve on one aspect of that, and usually throw the rest in the trash in the process. A good example is the Tavor: it is a little shorter, but the accuracy is garbage, the ergonomics are horrible in prone (mag hits the ground), it vents gas into your face (badly so when suppressed), the caliber options are very limited, and has limited provisions for iron sights.

That's one step forward, five steps back. Other than people seeking novelty, there will be no takers. Make a gun that's ACTUALLY better, and we can talk.

 

[Sam1911]

i think we're 5-10 years (or 2 administrations) away from the mil adopting something newer and "better". more electric, more 'smart', features from trackingpoint, etc

I agree with Taliv on this, and rbernie as well, that A) the adoption of the AR by our large military and our military pals around the world and its massive establishment as a semi-universal standard is why we are where we are today, and B) it will take the massive replacement of that platform by the next infantry weapon to really change that --

BUT

C) I am concerned that what comes next for our military will NOT be something that is physically, economically, and legally viable to promulgate through the civilian shooting world. If the next thing comes and truly replaces the Stoner rifle design, it may be another conventional-ammo, relatively inexpensive, semi-auto capable design. Or it may be electronically aimed/directed, may be triggered in a system that cannot be sufficiently limited to be considered "semi-auto" (thus no BATFE approval for civilian sale), or may even use an ammunition type that is simply not really available to civilians, or cheap, easy, and legal to own.

We, of course, support and believe in the idea that, "Their swords and every terrible implement of the soldier are the birthright of Americans." And if a US soldier is carrying it, we by all rights should be able to as well. But when that weapon is full of militarily proprietary and classified electronic systems, and fires miniature guided explosive projectiles in multi-round volleys ... Well, we're a long way from seeing that being sold at the local gun show.

In other words, the AR is going to be around for a very long time.

 

[jmorris]

Do you believe that we will ever see the popularity, versatility, and aftermarket of the AR contended?

Sure, sharp rocks were once the best method of cutting something, horses were the best way to get across the Country and if you wanted to go around the world, a boat was your only choice.

Just a matter of time, could be a long time though the 1911 is over 100 and fairly popular itself.

 

[ny32182]

As mentioned, at a minimum, it would have to be a rifle that is mainstream-adopted by the military for an extended period of time, and the patents and whatnot would have to run out, allowing everyone and their brother to make parts.

Lots of "next generation carbines" out there that made minor improvements on one or more aspects of the AR15, and one was even minimally adopted by the military (SCAR).

But is anything that fires a regular 5.56 or other standard-tech rifle round going to be better enough to justify a wholesale change over?

Put me in the not-in-your-lifetime camp.

Also I imagine the stuff Sam mentioned will be a real impediment if/when the time comes. If it represents any REAL advancement beyond the "30 rounds of 5.56 with a scope on it" model, the government will try much harder to make it civilian-illegal from the jump this time.

 

[BSA1]

IMHO the AR and AK will continue to be the top two most popular rifles although for different markets.

 

[Llama Bob]

If there are real advances in rifle technology, it seems very unlikely they will come from the government or be targeted there. There are probably 10x as many ARs owned in the American civilian market as there are potential customers in the US military. The idea that the military contract is the big enchilada hasn't been true for a long time, and barring an infantry-oriented word war (unlikely) never will be true again.

Right now the civilian world is at least 10 years ahead of the military in terms of technology and the gap is widening. The civilians have better optics, better rifles, better ammo, even better magazines. When the military wants something nice, they go buy it from the civilian vendors.

 

[desidog]

I'm still waiting for the Phased Pulse Plasma rifle in the 40-watt range i heard about in 1984...

 

[Sam1911]

Right now the civilian world is at least 10 years ahead of the military in terms of technology and the gap is widening. The civilians have better optics, better rifles, better ammo, even better magazines. When the military wants something nice, they go buy it from the civilian vendors.

That's absolutely so, but probably CAN'T be so as the technology of warfare advances.

If we accept that SOMETHING is going to replace solid metal projectiles as the instrument of infantry lethality, then that something pushes out into territory that will challenge [strike]our[/strike] our society's concept of arms covered by the 2nd Amendment.

Sure that civilian shooting community will continue to advance the world of "30 rounds of 5.56 with a scope on it," as ny32182 so well put it, but the civilian shooting community isn't going to have much to do with guided small explosive projectiles, energy/beam weapons, or other likely avenues of infantry weapon development -- probably.

So if the question is, "Will the AR ever have competition, among civilian shooters" then that's somewhat separate from a question like, "What will take the place of the AR-15 design, globally/militarily?"

I see divergent paths there, though I wish that wasn't so.

I'd say that among civilian shooters the AR will hold the very high ground for a long time, and once the military truly has moved on, other competing rifles will gradually start to take chunks of its supremacy. That will happen very slowly and probably in a diffuse way -- no one design will pull in the huge majority of shooters the way the AR did.

And the military will be heading off in other directions completely.

 

[Llama Bob]

I'm not sure sure about that. If we imagine the new infantry weapon is something like a heat seeking flying drone/hand grenade, then the civilian world is ahead on the tech there too. I don't think anyone is explicitly making weaponized drones (or at least selling them), but it terms of miniaturized drones, sensors, and software control thereof the civilians are way ahead.

I'm also not at all sure slug throwers are going away. They're very efficient in terms of energy input vs. energy on target and the size of the platform required. While it may be the 40 watt plasma rifles take over the world, that doesn't even seem to be on the horizon. Most places where we thought military lasers would be winners, various kinds of kinetic projectiles seem to be doing better (e.g. ballistic missile defense and naval guns).

 

[ny32182]

I don't think any civilians are flying around anything like this:



Advancements in military technology are driven by... the military.

Every major advancement in the history of firearms I can think of was driven by a military application.

No reason for that to change now.

If civilians have a marginally better scope/trigger/whatever than what is standard military issue, I'd even bet that 9 times out of 10, the vendor developed it originally hoping for a military contract, and either got it or didn't, but then decided they could recoup some of the investment by selling a few on the civilian market.

 

[MIL-DOT]

Now that the slowed economy has forced them to show how cheaply they can sell high-quality AR's, and STILL make a profit ? NOPE !!
That's one genie that's gonna be hard to put back in the bottle. I don't see anything coming along that does a significantly better job, and a significantly better price point,or that is able to move the AR off it's pedestal.
The bigger concern here is how long we have until the entire genre of weapons has been felonized, because it's coming sooner than y'all think, despite the predictable,feel-good,chest-beating tirades about "cold dead hands" and such.

 

[Wreck-n-Crew]

Well I just read where the Ak-47 is beginning to outsell the AR-15 and is, in fact, displacing the AR as America's trendy rifle.

Simple design and reliable for the cartridge its built around...but hardly as versatile as an ar15 platform. Even with the addition of caliber offerings its hardly universal by nature and more classic, rugged imo.

Looking at everything that has been mounted on an ar15 with great success and with ease its hard to imagine an ak47 that does it as well and without looking like a frankengun from a sci-fi flic.

Ymmv

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