Would You Stay or Would You Go?

[Thin Black Line]

Given what we've seen happen in New O and all the discussions on
bugging out, kits, and convoys, etc. I have a few of questions
for the comumunity:

1. My question is how bad would it have to be before you would
pick up and move?

2. What would be the "final straw" in making the decision to leave?

3. Where would you go?

I'm not looking at the obvious like a nuke hitting your city, but
more of the slow collapse or spreading brushfire scenario where
law, order, and the economy are reduced to early 19th century
wild west territories at best.

For me it would be the following:

1. My land could no longer consistently sustain me and/or
I would be faced with a force that would wipe my family out
(natural or man-made).

2. Dwindling food and water, no possibility of replenishing
and kids to feed.

3. Possibly a nearby family member, but they might be as
bad off. Living off of someone else's land may be as skinny
or as dangerous. But, I guess it would be a risk to weigh
if our current location meant near certain death!

So, obviously I'm not going to be the one roaming the streets
looking for the plasma screen TV on 10 finger discount.....

 

[LaEscopeta]

1. Ideally, my family would run BEFORE it got bad. Easier said than done, of course, especially since we chose to live where there are no recurring, semi-predictable threats (no hurricane storm surges, no frequent tornados, no big rivers that flood, no high crime rate, no blizzards, etc.) So, almost by definition, anything that happens that would require a bug out will be a surprise.

2. I think the final straw would be increasingly dangerous and self defeating behavior by the public, and increasingly futile attempts by the government to control it. i.e. we had a binge of panic gas buying at the end of last week, that allowed gas stations to gouge prices up over $3.50 a gallon, a greater than an $0.80 increase in 2 days. (We live far enough from the closed refineries in Louisiana that our gas supply has not been affected yet.) Rumors started, including on the radio news, claiming all gas sales in the State would cease at 3 PM on Friday. Things calmed down over the weekend, and gas prices are coming down again. But if they hadn’t, and instead people started trying to horde gas in old milk jugs and pots, we would have started thinking of going after a week.

3. Short term bug out location would be tell the kids we are off on an unplanned, adventure vacation, and head to a vacation spot in the boonies; return after things calm down at home. Mid term location would be a rural area with a nursing shortage (wife is one; the journals she gets are full of want ads.) Try to find affordable housing, jobs, schools etc, either for putting down new roots, or to hold out until we can return home. Not sure what the long term, EOTWAWKI destination would be; will have to play that one by ear.

 

[HankB]

1. I'm confident about being able to deal with civil unrest, which is pretty unlikely in my area. The odds of being put under siege by a disciplined, organized, heavily armed gang are extremely remote. I wouldn't be inclined to "bug out" based on the presence of a lawless, disorganized rabble.

2. Even if I were dumb enough to buy a below-sea-level home protected by levees rated to withstand a Cat 3 hurricane, if I heard a Cat 4 or Cat 5 was coming, I'd leave. I'm not tough enough to withstand a force of nature.

3. If resupply was cut off, eventual withdrawl would be an option. But if my area was affected this badly, the question of where to go for "better" conditions would be something to ponder.

 

[Preacherman]

I think the decision to "bug out" has to be based on your own situation. That said, there are a couple of factors to consider:

1. Are you in a sufficiently "survivable" situation in your home? If you have a degree of isolation from whatever the problem may be (weather, riots, etc.), have sufficient necessities to survive for a reasonable period of time, and are able to defend your area against foreseen threats, you're probably better off forting up and holding out.

2. Is the situation elsewhere more "survivable" than your home? If you're bugging out from one disaster, only to move to another disaster, this may not be the optimum solution...

3. Do you have somewhere to go? If you're bugging out to live a "gypsy" lifestyle, with no destination in mind and no prospects of finding one soon, this is not a very good idea unless the alternative (staying put) is untenable. It's best to have somewhere to go that offers greater security, communication, survivability, etc.

4. Will the "bugging out" process be survivable in itself? If you hit the road, will it be clogged with enormous amounts of traffic, rendering you either immobile or very slow in evacuating, and thereby putting you at risk from the threat (weather, riots, etc.)? If so, either get out ahead of the rush, or stay put and wait until the coast is clear before leaving. You may have to abandon your vehicles and their increased "bug-out" storage space in order to get out on foot, if things go to hell in a hand-basket.

Just a few thoughts.

 

[JamisJockey]

Bug in is my first choice.
Bug out last choice
In a short term refugee situation, we might end up at my work, but that isn't preferred.
I have family in CA and would likely send my wife and kids there, and fend for myself if I'm needed at work.
Other options would be holing up in the woods, I know a few places that see light traffic, have ready sources of firewood and water, and good safe campsites.

 

[Lennyjoe]

I would of left. We did not stick around when Hugo hit Myrtle Beach and would not of stayed on Katrina. Especially if I lived in NO or within 4 miles of the beach. I have seen what a hurricaine can do and have no desire to stick around. Not only winds, water and tornado's, but the stress of not knowing what is going to happen is bad in itself. My material posessions are just that, material. My life and my families life is way more important than furniture or anything else.

Where would I go? I would of went to Georgia to stay with friends. If that wasn't far enough away then to Ohio with family. That or I would of relocated to an Air Force installation out of the path.

 

[Art Eatman]

I guess it's not unreasonable to say that I bugged out 22 years ago. I wasn't bugging out as a motivation; I just wanted away from overly-organized city life and the hassles thereof.

Any person living in an area where serious hazards (hurricane, major earthquake, major civil unrest) are LIKELY should have some rational plan. Know ahead of time exactly where you will go, and be there when things go bad.

A salaried person should try to make sure to have vacation time available. That way, "I need a few days off" will let you bug out in advance, and CYA if it's a false alarm. Wifemate/significant other needs to be like-minded.

Art

 

[TallPine]

I guess it's not unreasonable to say that I bugged out 22 years ago

That's basically the situation that we are in, though it hasn't been near that long.

When we still lived in town, my plan was to take the camper trailer and head for the hills where I knew there was water and game.

Now, our only real hazard is wildfire, and we have cleared out around our house and have a 1000 gal water tank and gasoline powered pump. If a fire does burn over us and we save the house, then there isn't much else to worry about - we have plenty of food and can cook on wood stove. Water might be a problem over the long haul but there are some springs within walking distance. I need to get a generator to run the well pump.

The govt do-gooder that comes to run me out better be dang well armed I'm getting old enough to just not care much anymore

 

[Sinsaba]

First choice would to not be where the situation was that bad that I had to make a choice (like in NO). BTW I live in Northern VA.

Failing that, it would depend on what kind of emergency. I've always assumed that in a natural emergency, it would take a week for things to settle down enough to know what to do. A week is what I plan for. I have everything I need (except water) for at least a week without gas, electricity, water, gasoline, etc. I have everything necessary to treat enough water to last a month. And I am currently stocking more water to have at least a week's worth of potable water on hand at any one time. Given what is in fridge and freezer we should be good for 2 weeks in a pinch. If it was winter we would be good for at least 2 weeks. I have first aid kits and directions on how to use them. I have ammunition stocked as well as defense weapons and varmit weapons (lots of squirls here). Making it more difficult than usual to get in would take some effort and preparations for that are under way.

So, that being said; my first option would be to bug in. If the situation is such that a) we would be in great danger staying put for 2 weeks, or b) it was evident that this was severe disruption of civilazation in this country, then bugging out would be looked at.

Even if situation (b) existed I would still look at the potential danger before bugging out (if 95% of the rest of the people didn't make it I might stay put for example)

If I have to bug out then the question becomes how fast to I have to move. We are good for 3 days with only 3 min. notice (if we are at home). Given 30 min notice and the car we would be good for the better part of 2 weeks.

The real question there would then be "where to?", and that folks is something I haven't worked out. The closest thing I can come up with to a plan is West of here towards the Shanandoa (sp) national park.

Yes I need more planning, but at least it is a start.

 

[Tokugawa]

My belief is the nieghors and friends you have are one of your greatest assets. We cannot live unsupported very long, we each have strengths and weaknesses that a society of friends can round out. If you bug out, you are all alone, so to speak. Bug out is a last resort for me, my family would have to be in immediate "nonduckable" peril. (you can "duck" a hurricane.)

 

[Thin Black Line]

Thanks for the replies on this topic. I have always wondered, though,
what happens when XX,000,000 people all decide to "bug out" to the
woods, hills, etc. There is a certain point where the game, herbs, roots,
and berries get used up and once again desperate people begin
bumping into each other out in the woods or along the popular fishing
spot, and possibly only fresh water source. The hunter-gatherer
lifestyle just won't work too long in supporting the numbers of people
who will be taking to the land. I've heard it said that the deer population
was hunted to near extinction during the Great Depression.

Could a true long-term self-sufficiency plan be resurrected in the sense
of our agrarian past, AKA the Victory Gardens, or as currently called under
the trendy name of Community Supported Agriculture?

This is what I have considered in my own future bug-out plan by adding
my own garden this Spring. Therefore, I would hope that would prevent
the need to bug-out in the first place after current food storage ran out!

 

[LaEscopeta]

Water might be a problem over the long haul but there are some springs within walking distance. I need to get a generator to run the well pump.

Might want to consider a hand pump:
http://www.survivalunlimited.com/waterpumps.htm
http://www.pumpsandtanks.com/
http://www.do-it-yourself-pumps.com/handpumps.htm

They work in shallow, surface water wells (<24’ deep) and you will likely have to treat surface water to make it potable. There are new types of deep well hand pumps that supposedly work down to 300’, but I have no experience with them. If you have some way to store water for night and cloudy days, solar pumps have gotten a lot cheaper.

 

[TallPine]

LaEscopeta: thanks for the links

The problem is the well already has a standard pump in it for normal use "on the grid". I'm not sure how big of a deal it would be to swap them out - probably quite a lot of work.

So my options (and probably most people on their own wells) are:
1) generator - I figure I can fill quite a few containers on a little bit of gas if that's all I use it for

2) what I want to do is put in an underground tank up on the hill and tie it into my system so I can keep 1000 gal or so reserve year round. As it is, I have to drain my above ground fire tank in the fall and re-fill it in the spring to keep it from freezing

 

[dfaugh]

Staying Put

I've decided that my only real option is staying in place. In part due to the fact that I'm disabled, and any attempt to "live off the land" is gonna be doubly hard for me.

Part of the considerations, though, include the fact that I live in an area that is not subject to natural disasters...We don't have hurricanes, tornadoes and such. Flooding is not a problem for me as I hold the "high ground", house sits on a hilltop about 50 feet above nearby lowest areas (this also gives me a 360 degree field of fire in all directions). Area around house clear for several hundred yards, so fire is also an unlikely problem. We do live near a fault line, but its inactive, however an eathquake is possible, if very unlikely.

My sons (20 and 23) have been instructed that at the first sign of anything resembling SHTF, they should come here, w/ SOs. Both have been instructed in all available firearms. In the case of civil unrest,we could hold off anything short of a military-type assault w/ mortars, etc. We have plenty of guns/ammo, as well as 5 trained German Shepherds. I also have CCTV cameras covering all sides of the house(battery operated if need be).

Sounds kinda paranoid, but I didn't buy the place for its strategic location, but it works...Plenty of game in the area, as well as a large pond nearby, if we need water...Lots of wood stockpiled, and in the woods for heat, etc.

 

[Byron Quick]

Once law and order have broken down..a small group of individuals is at a serious disadvantage no matter how well armed and supplied.

I'm getting out when it looks as if community function will be overwhelmed. I'll either organize a group of families or join a group of families...a traveling community. Luckily, I have medical skills that will be in demand.

People often misread Darwinism. Survival of the fittest among humans does not go to the meanest son of a gun in the valley. Survival of the fittest goes to the group of humans in the valley who cooperate the best.

I don't care how well armed, well supplied, well trained, and strong you are as an individual-if you run into a hundred pygmies with blowguns acting as a team...I know where my money will be riding.

Bug out in a group.

 

[Art Eatman]

The Jimmy Carter era saw the rise of "Survivalism". A very common-sense, pragmatic writer of that era was Mel Tappan. His book "On Survival" is still valid as to the points raised.

There are many knowledgeable folks over at http://www.timebomb2000.com, for all that there is a notable percentage of tinfoil-hat conspiracists.

The main thing to remember is that there is no "one size fits all". Each person must work out a system that fits his own environment and level of skills and abilities.

Art

 

[Thin Black Line]

Byron,

I'd have to strongly agree on the maintaining the small community and
"group of families" approach. I think for most people, though, it's
going to be the extended family and then maybe another family or
two of friends. Probably far less than 20 people and more likely
around 10.

If I'm watching the other household down the country road of
neighbors getting swamped by 50+ guys on motorcycles tossing
molotovs at their house, I'm left with two choices: start sniping
or start packing. Let's face it, the 4-6 adults down the road
aren't going to hold out for long....and 600 yards on a moving
target in a 15+mph xwind is not easy....

As far as the well goes, I've got a DEEP well.

 

[atlctyslkr]

If the situation is temporary I'd stay and ride it out. We're talking power grid disruption, hurricane, things like that. Some major disaster that will alter civilzation as we know it permanently would cause me to leave. I'd head for the moutains.

 

[Biker]

TBL...

Chucking molotovs from a moving Harley ain't as easy as it looks! I much prefer offering rides to the female family members and shmoozing myself into the fold.

Biker

 

[Lou629]

Biker...

Chucking molotovs from a moving Harley ain't as easy as it looks!

and you know this because....? ( he asked, almost afraid to learn the answer ...)

 

[Lone_Gunman]

One thing I know for sure is that under NO circumstances will I bug out to a government-operated disaster shelter.

 

[Imaginos]

WILMAAAAAA!

At one point it looked like hurricane Wilma was going to run through Houston, right up I45, and into Dallas.

By the time Wilma was on the map, Dallas and Houston had already taken in a lot of the "wards of the nanny-state" from NO, and the powers that be were preparing to move them all again if Wilma did not change track. Then came the call to evacuate Houston.

If the storm made it to Dallas, it would have been weakened significantly, but the heavy rain and power outages would have been a nightmare. Dallas has a lot of residential areas that flood. Emergency shelters would have been overwhelmed even before the storm arrived.

I had no plans to be here when it arrived. Even if the damage was minimal, things would have been at a flash point immediately afterwards with all of the Houston residents packed in on top of the Louisianans packed in on top of the locals. As it was, we got bus load after bus load of people from east Texas that were screaming to the news media that all of the little towns between where they came from and Dallas would not take them in "because we are black". Trust the news media to show good judgement in an emergency and air footage guaranteed to calm down racial tensions.

Better to torch my house and flee for my life than sit through all of that.

 

[Lonestar]

One thing I know for sure is that under NO circumstances will I bug out to a government-operated disaster shelter.

Words to live by. After Katrinia, that is definately on the top of my list

I guess I would bug out if my peticular region was bad, yet outside everything was still running like normal. One big word, INSURANCE. I'm not going to risk my life and my family's life sitting on my roof defending a piece of property that is insured. If my neighborhood goes to heck, and my family's lives are in danger, I leave and collect a check later. Even if your not insured, how much money would it take for you to risk your life? Now if you can't get out or there is nowhere to go (it's bad everywhere) then you might as well stay home and fight on your home turf.

 

[honkeoki]

I agree with LaEscopeta -- my wife and I were perfectly comfortable (at least I was) for a week with no power, water, etc during Hurricane Wilma. We had food, water, books to read... But within 24 hours our neighbors were dipping drinking water out of the swimming pool.

We bugged out when I noticed a group of folks who'd broken into the neighborhood Texaco to siphon gas out of the tanks. The crowds of people swarming around the few operating gas stations had a scary look about them. Fortunately, we had someplace to bug out to.

For the most part, we can handle many situations -- we're prepared for them -- it's other people that are the real danger.