Ammo Prices - At what point are you priced out of the market?

[Good Ol' Boy]

Me personally I'm priced out of the market NOW.

I'll have to rely on my minimal "fort" as it were.

I'm comfortable with that, although I'd always like to have more and keep a lookout for deals.

 

[P89DCSS]

Last week, from LAXammo, prices include shipping:
I bought 9mm 115gn FMJ brass Blazer for $0.34, last year it was $0.50.
I bought 556 55gn brass PMC xtac for $0.49, last year it was $0.80
I bought 38spl 130gn FMJ brass Remington for $0.42, last year it was $0.65.
I bought 38spl 130gn P+ JHP brass Remington for $0.85, last year it was $1.50.
I bought 22lr for ~$0.09, relatively good price, last year I couldn't find 22lr anywhere.

I see bulk, online ammo prices lower than last year by 30%~50%. The variety is much better too. I decided to get while the getting is good. No telling what McConnell and the senator from Texas will do next.

I have some 556 JHP from 1994, 100rnds for $10.50. Those prices are never coming back, ever.

 

[JCooperfan1911]

No price is or ever will be too much for me. They won’t price this old coonhound out of the race.

FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!!!

 

[robin banks]

I do reload it some and have gotten ok accuracy using Hornady A-Max bullets, but I haven't been able to beat the sub-MOA accuracy I get with Wolf hollow points.

you are lucky to get good accuracy with the wolf ammo

 

[robin banks]

I primarily buy from big box stores. Maybe you're seeing this online or a LGS?

there could be a 1000 guys saying how much ammo costs and as sure as the turning of the earth some guy will come on and say he got a box of 30-06 for $12.95

 

[Handshaker]

Every time someone farts in the middle east or there is an active shooter on the news, prices go up. I get where you are coming from, at some point its not worth shooting. I haven't got there yet because I have a lot of ammo still from buying on sale over the years. But, for those calibers that were more than I would spend and I didn't have tons of, I started reloading. I didn't see a point reloading common calibers that were cheap, altho that has changed recently. When I finally do run out of the common stuff, I might rethink reloading those as well. I now reload 45colt, 45-70, 221FB,7mm int-r, 30 carbine and 30-30. I also have die setups for 223,22-250,308 but haven't had to reload those yet. I love reloading as i can now make plinking ammo you cant normally buy or find.

 

[allisd17]

you are lucky to get good accuracy with the wolf ammo

That's only with the HP and only out of my CZ 527. FMJ of any brand gives me 2-3 MOA at best.

 

[Scout21]

Last week, from LAXammo, prices include shipping:
I bought 9mm 115gn FMJ brass Blazer for $0.34, last year it was $0.50.
I bought 556 55gn brass PMC xtac for $0.49, last year it was $0.80
I bought 38spl 130gn FMJ brass Remington for $0.42, last year it was $0.65.
I bought 38spl 130gn P+ JHP brass Remington for $0.85, last year it was $1.50.
I bought 22lr for ~$0.09, relatively good price, last year I couldn't find 22lr anywhere.

I see bulk, online ammo prices lower than last year by 30%~50%. The variety is much better too. I decided to get while the getting is good. No telling what McConnell and the senator from Texas will do next.

I have some 556 JHP from 1994, 100rnds for $10.50. Those prices are never coming back, ever.

While prices are unequivocally better now than they were last year, the last couple year's pricing was primarily due to demand for ammunition, which is/was temporary. Now that demand has subsided quite a bit the prices have come down in like fashion. Prices mostly went up because the manufacturers, middlemen, and sellers could get more for it. They could've sold the ammo for nearly normal prices if they wanted to. Nobody in their right mind would have, but they could have, nonetheless.

What seems to be different now is raw material costs, shipping costs, and inflation have increased so much. The additional costs for these are non-negotiable. It doesn't matter if the market will pay a dollar a round or a thousand dollars a round, costs have increased, regardless. They can't sell ammo for close to what it sold for before, they would be in the red for every box they sell.

If prices increase much, and they likely will, I'll pretty much be out of the game except for a little .22 plinking here or there.

 

[luzyfuerza]

I just bought a few boxes of Automatch at WalMart yesterday at $0.065/round. Good deal. That price has been coming down.

The going on-line price for 12 gauge slugs and 00 buckshot is $0.60-0.70/round, in stock, from a variety of vendors. PMC .223 is going for $0.44/round. Both are plus shipping and tax. My observation has been that these prices have been coming down, and are below your limits.

I use wikiarms.com to crawl around the web. It helps find the best deals out there.

 

[LiveLife]

I just bought a few boxes of Automatch at WalMart yesterday at $0.065/round. Good deal. That price has been coming down.

$32.50/500 is very good price point

CCI SV even came down to $37.90/500 price point with Sportman's Guide on $49+ member orders and free shipping - https://www.sportsmansguide.com/product/index/cci-standard-velocity-22lr-lrn-40-grain-50-rounds?

And Browning 40 gr LRN comes out to $37.73/500 even after shipping on 10 boxes - https://www.kygunco.com/product/browning-ammo-b194122400-22-lr-40gr-rn-1255fps-400rd?

I think 22LR pricing will continue to fall gradually before bottoming.

 

[CapnMac]

I primarily buy from big box stores

There was a time when the big boxes would heavily discount ammo to get people into the store to buy other things.
That time was about 2018.
At what point am I priced out of the market--that was 2020-21.
LGS have been more "nimble" in response to the changing market and availability.

 

[LiveLife]

There was a time when the big boxes would heavily discount ammo to get people into the store to buy other things.

That time was about 2018.

And prices continued to fall towards 2019 below $20/500 shipped and I restocked heavily around $18-$20/500 shipped. I recall seeing Thunderbolts (New production lot that was 100% reliable from my testing/25+ ammo comparison) around $16/500 at LGS and bought A LOT and shared with others during Covid shortage and I am still shooting them.

Thankfully, looks like we finally broke below $40/500 price point and continuing to fall down - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...t-shipped-pricing.902560/page-6#post-12335793

 

[Beck]

I'm already priced out. I just had to decide enough is enough. But I've always been a preper, so I've squirreled away a lot more than I've shot over the years. I was plenty stocked up before the latest insanity started. I still have several calibers in good stock from 1993 when the AWB looked to be inevitable. President George H. W. Bush had already banned new imports of ammo and firearms from China, but you could still buy and sell what was already in country. You still can.

One thing different then was that prices didn't go through the roof and availability was high even after the 1994 crime bill went into effect. For example, we could sill buy cases of Norinco and Chinese military surplus 7.62x39 for pennies per round. Stuff like 22 LR wasn't effected in price much at all.

This time we're being rolled and ripped off by people who claim to be our comrades in the cause of the 2nd. I can assure you they are not. They're pirates... plain and simple. So anyway, because I've always prepared I'm good without the greedy b*$$t**ds. I feel for people who were caught flat-footed, or are just getting into firearms.

 

[Scout21]

I think 22LR pricing will continue to fall gradually before bottoming.

I know it's impossible to answer with any certainty, but since you so intimately keep up with .22 pricing I'd say you'd be the guy to ask. What do you think the bottom will be? While the material cost can come down, unfortunately inflation is near irreversible, so I'm crossing my fingers for $25/500. I think that's about the best we can hope for.

 

[brewer12345]

I know it's impossible to answer with any certainty, but since you so intimately keep up with .22 pricing I'd say you'd be the guy to ask. What do you think the bottom will be? While the material cost can come down, unfortunately inflation is near irreversible, so I'm crossing my fingers for $25/500. I think that's about the best we can hope for.

Hard to say, IMO. Prices for base metals, fuel, labor, even the cost of capital have been increasing, so I think you are right that the high teens pricing near the bottom pre pandemic are not happening again. How low could prices go? Depends on how slack demand gets. I'd be surprised to see 22 much blow 30/brick in the next year or two.

As for what to do now, well...

I am a caster and reloader, so while I could buy factory I mostly haven't aside from 22, 12 gauge, and a few other things. That said, it has now been almost 3 years since I have bought a significant volume of primers so I am slowly drawing down the stash I accumulated and it looks like that will be my limitation. I am thinking ahead to supply in the future and have decided that for regular range time I will gradually shoot more 22 as long as primers/centerfire ammo remain scarce and expensive. I stocked a fair amount near the pricing bottom, but I am starting to shoot it up. So I have been slowly accumulating Walmart Automatch 325 packs as a hedge. I will probably continue doing so the rest of the year and then see where I am. In the meantime, I will soon break out some 2019 vintage CCI Standard Velocity to play with and I am digging through the pile for older/orphan stuff to shoot up in the 22s.

 

[berettaprofessor]

Prices are coming down. I was never priced out of what I needed, but I stopped stocking up for awhile. But the adds I see for federal 115 gr 9 mm coming down to $329/thousand are starting to look pretty good.

 

[LiveLife]

I know it's impossible to answer with any certainty, but ... What do you think the bottom will be?

... crossing my fingers for $25/500.

I'd be surprised to see 22 much [below] 30/brick in the next year or two.

During the last shortage of 2013-2019, we had similar questions factoring inflation and material cost increase.

By August 2017 when 22LR pricing fell to $30/500, I thought we had reached the bottom and started this tracking thread - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...ammo-for-sale-under-30-for-500-rounds.825048/

Then by June 2019 22LR pricing fell below $20/500 and I started $15-$20/500 shipped thread - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.php?threads/22lr-for-less-than-15-20-500-shipped.853059/

With current shortage cycle, many members thought/claimed $50/500 was the new bottom factoring Covid/inflation/material cost/supply chain issues and urged others to stock up while I suggested to wait unless you had to buy. Well, we just broke through below $40/500 - https://www.thehighroad.org/index.p...t-shipped-pricing.902560/page-6#post-12335793

And my sentiment is that 22LR prices hovering slightly above $40/500 shipped may have been protracted by those who were buying/stocking up thinking this is the new bottom yet we are starting to see signs of pricing falling further (CCI SV for $3.79/50 and Browning for $3.77/50 are good indicators).

As news of 22LR pricing below $40/500 spreads with Walmart continuing to sell Federal AutoMatch for $21/325 ($33/500) now going on for some time now, people may stop buying at higher $40/500+ pricing which will result in vendors lowering prices below $40/500 to move inventory which will result in prices falling towards $30/500 likely with open market competition.

How low will 22LR prices fall for current shortage cycle? That depends on what current wholesale production cost is and how much profit margins are added by the vendors. If 22LR buying demand falls (And I believe it will short-term), then vendors will continue to lower their profit margins to move inventory to extract capital for additional inventory purchase at lower cost. If buying demand falls significantly, we could see significant price drop within a short period of time towards $30/500.

Can we go down to $30/500 this time around? With last shortage, I was surprised when we fell below $30/500 then shocked as prices fell down to $15-$20/500. I think many are surprised we went below $40/500 but Walmart is ALREADY AT $33/500 with Federal AutoMatch ... Yes, think about that and let that sink in that Walmart is selling Federal AM for $21/325 and making profit.

So I think $30/500 is the new bottom barrier I will be monitoring and would restock if prices fell below $30/500 or around there if bottom forms there.

And if prices don't fall below $30/500? We will find out in time and I would restock at lowest pricing I see.

Prices are coming down.

Yes, for the moment, 22LR price trend is falling.

 

[hdwhit]

I was roudly pilloried on this site in 2017 when I said (as the market collapsed following Trump's victory) that being near retirement, I intended to buy all the components I would need to reload for the rest of my anticipated life.

Now, I shoot .223/5.56 for between $0.18 and $0.23 per round (largely depending on the bullet).

 

[CoalCrackerAl]

CCI maxi mags were 15 bucks at walmart last night. I left them sit. I think last time i got some after they started to come in stock. They were 12 bucks. Inflation i guess?

 

[Scout21]

CCI maxi mags were 15 bucks at walmart last night. I left them sit. I think last time i got some after they started to come in stock. They were 12 bucks. Inflation i guess?

Ouch! They were $10.50 a month ago and $11.50 a week ago. I'm surprised they jumped up that high that quick. It may be your area though. I'll be sure to check my Walmart next time I go.

 

[LiveLife]

Ouch! They were $10.50 a month ago and $11.50 a week ago. I'm surprised they jumped up that high that quick. It may be your area though.

We saw similar during last shortage where price drop/rise of specialty ammo was atypical of more common/popular "bulk" 22LR.

I think market competition would affect "bulk" 22LR more where "cheapst cost per round" would be more applicable but specialty ammo that someone wants/needs may not be affected due to their lower volume sales.

 

[Buzznrose]

I’ve not been buying much lately but that Wally World Automatch is worth it when I walk into the store.

My price threshold for .22LR is now $0.065 per round for bulk stuff and $0.09 per round for CCI mini mags.

I’ve got a good bit of .22 set aside so it’s not something I make a special trip for.

If a Federal or Aguilar .22 goes below $0.05 per round, or Minimags below $0.08, I’ll make sure I buy as much as I can.

 

[pharmer]

Since I retired a year ago I make $2/mo more than my take home at my last job. As long as it don't get stupid (maybe $10/rd for centerfire handgun) I have no problem paying for what I want with "mailbox money." We are along for the ride no matter who's driving the bus, don't see that changing. I'd rather pay outrageous prices for ammo than pay the $17,750 I was required to shell out to replace a 15 y/o roof the insurance co said I must have to continue to have them rob me. Same roof was under $5K 15 years ago. Joe

 

[DeepSouth]

I’m not entirely sure how to answer the OP’s question. The higher ammo goes the less I shoot, for me to be entirely priced out it’d have to get real high but for me to get back to shooting a couple hundred rounds a week or more it’d have to drop about 50%

I know 10 years ago I made less money and shot a lot more. I’m afraid shooting is really becoming a rich man’s sport, for those of us that don’t have time to reload.

 

[starnbar]

Well I broke out the air guns cost is a lot less but it ain't the same and although it keeps me shooting I really prefer the 22 for plinking.