supply and demand
I think the "firearm" discussion ended in this thread long ago,,, but I love this subject so I'll dive in.
Peak oil is an interesting theory and it's also one I subscribe heavily to.
It's undeniable that the leaps and bounds of gains in modern society are mainly attributed to the combustion engine, lubricants, and the availability of cheap, plentiful oil and gasoline which is easy to pump, process, store, and burn. To put it in laymans' terms, we have replaced millions of man hours worth of labor for very little cost. To analogize, it would take a man 100s of hours to push an SUV 20 miles. But for just a couple of dollars, he can replace hundreds of man hours and drive the vehicle 20 miles in 10 minutes on a gallon of gas. In economic terms, this is a HUGE percentage of return on investment. Extrapolate this over the last 100 years of mankind, and it explains our unprecedented global wealth. We can move mountains, fly, travel to distant planets, etc. because of cheap oil and its' byproducts.
The idea of peak oil is that we have a finite amount of oil and we are at or near the peak of out ability to produce oil, in terms of a Bell Curve. Meanwhile, as our production peaks and naturally starts the downward trend of availability, other nations such as India and China increase their demand (which was formerly a lot lower).
It's true that we will likely never use the "last barrel" of oil, so to speak. But it's undeniable that as the remaining supply decreases, the demand for use will increase for selfish human and power reasons. And as the supply decreases and the demand increases, the price will double, tripple, quadruple, etc. until it becomes so cost prohibitive that most people cannot afford it and it becomes a significant luxury.
Once that happens, society will crumble because people aren't accustomed to going without - electricity, travel, flying, power, etc.
What happens to our economy when that $20,000 car in your driveway has no value and is a finanical loss? How about the boat in your garage? Your computer that you can't run very often? How about your daily commute to work - you lose your job because you cannot get there anymore. And your employer is going out of business anyway because he has no more walk-in customers. And what about the shipping industry? Truckers can no longer drive and businesses can no longer get their goods to market? It is a HUGE chain reaction.
The need to take steps to conserve is upon us... it's just a simple economic principle of supply and demand. Most people, though, just don't get it.
Look at the price of oil per barrel just in the last 20 years. It has spiked in the last couple years. That should tell you something. Oil did the same thing in the 70's, because the prediction was we were running low and there was an embargo. New technology was implemented, new oil was found, and all was great for awhile. Now we're at the same point. Will new technology save us? That is the million dollar question. But who will pay the price? And what if it doesn't?
Yes, we have other types of energy to supplement oil... but solar energy doesn't fly 747s. Hydroelectricity doesn't fuel earth moving equipment. Nuclear energy doesn't fuel 200,000,000 daily commuter cars. Wind energy won't fuel Abrams tanks. Corn byproducts won't lubricate engines and moving parts (or even your firearm- there, now it's firearms related
). And, each of these types of energy, while each have their merits, is MORE expensive than oil at this point and they won't be widely implemented until oil becomes more expensive.
