Poll: Do you carry concealed in urban areas? Has your gun ever been snatched?

[frankie_the_yankee]

Regolith writes: It seems to me like you have a bug up your ass about OC in general, and seem to be more eager to prove that *your* method is OBVIOUSLY superior to those "OC proselytizers." This absolutely reeks of elitism.

The only bug I have up my ass is when people dispense bad advice, because I'm concerned that some poor soul might take it and get themselves in trouble, hurt, or worse.

OC'ing in crowded environments is a BAD IDEA for most people. You give up tactical surprise and you set yourself up to be ambushed by BG's seeking to grab your gun.

If OC advocates would acknowledge these added risks and say they do it anyway to educate people, raise consciousness, etc., I would have no problem with it or them.

But what I have seen is that OC advocates more often deny these added risks. If someone is niave enough to believe them, they could set themselves up for a bad outcome.

BTW, I notice that yet ANOTHER anonymous respondant reports that they have had a snatch or snatch attempt while carrying concealed. So now we are up to 4 such incidents.

 

[chaim]

You know, I agree that OC isn't the best idea. Same reasons- lack of tactical surprise (if concealed you have options based on what the situation seems to present and if you choose to draw it will be a surprise to the BG, if OC and something happens you pretty much have to draw as a BG willing to confront someone OCing is probably armed and willing to use it yet the BG will be expecting you to draw), possible snatch attempt, likely first target if the BG is that violent that it doesn't matter, etc.

However, I'm all for OC laws and letting those who choose to carry that way to do so. First, I'm all for freedom, the state shouldn't tell you or me how we can defend ourselves (within reason). Then there is the argument that if people start seeing more everyday people doing everyday things while carrying they just might start to see gun ownership and carry as normal. Finally, it would just be one more option- depending upon your activities that day open carry just might be the best option.

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

chaim writes: However, I'm all for OC laws and letting those who choose to carry that way to do so. First, I'm all for freedom, the state shouldn't tell you or me how we can defend ourselves (within reason). Then there is the argument that if people start seeing more everyday people doing everyday things while carrying they just might start to see gun ownership and carry as normal. Finally, it would just be one more option- depending upon your activities that day open carry just might be the best option.

I agree.

 

[bruss01]

how about not allowing anyone to get close enough to attempt a snatch and grab? Situational awareness plays into this. I know that's not always possible - but I DO NOT allow anyone to casually walk by me. Not sure why it bothers me - but it really does. Even more so when I'm carrying.

I don't ccw, but I can imagine being on public transit or on a busy streetcorner with people basically shoulder-to-shoulder or in a crowded store, even if you have your "concealment" garb in place someone could easily bump into you and know you are packing. Maybe they don't do anything about it, but whispers to the guy next to them, someone else with bad intent overhears, and then you get that third party following you off the train waiting for an opportunity when you might be distracted so they can try to steal your sidearm. I don't know that this happens, but I can easily envision it.

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

Right now we have 4 people who report snatches or attempted snatched of their concealed guns. One involved a curious 5 year old who simply reached out and touched the gun after he "made" the CC'er. So that's not really a "serious" attempt in my view.

The other 3 are anonymous votes with no explanatory posting.

Then there are 78 people who report no snatches or attempts.

Maybe it's just me, but 3 snatches or attempts out of 81 CC'ers seems awfully high. Given that the guns are supposed to be concealed in this scenario, it is more than high. It is unbelieveable. Given that none of the 3 people described the snatches or attempts they are referring to in posts, it seems more likely to me that the votes come from OC'ers "cleverly" trying to skew the poll than actual CC'ers who have experienced snatches or attempts.

Given the demonstrated tendency of some OC'ers to deny common sense when trying to convince people that OC involves no more risk of snatches or attempts than CC, such behavior wouldn't surprise me for a minute.

Look at the scenario described by bruss01 above.

I don't ccw, but I can imagine being on public transit or on a busy streetcorner with people basically shoulder-to-shoulder or in a crowded store, even if you have your "concealment" garb in place someone could easily bump into you and know you are packing. Maybe they don't do anything about it, but whispers to the guy next to them, someone else with bad intent overhears, and then you get that third party following you off the train waiting for an opportunity when you might be distracted so they can try to steal your sidearm. I don't know that this happens, but I can easily envision it.

I agee with bruss01 in princiole that such a thing could happen, though it seems a bit far-fetched. But imagine what the probabilities of a snatch or attempt would be in this scenario if instead of the wearer CC'ing they were OC'ing.

Like I said, the idea of any sort of "equivalence" between CC and OC is absurd.

 

[hso]

The "gunsnatch" amounts to uban myth it is so rare. I have never heard or read of someone just snatching a gun from someone who was carrying concealed.

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

The "gunsnatch" amounts to uban myth it is so rare. I have never heard or read of someone just snatching a gun from someone who was carrying concealed.

Me neither.

 

[Big45]

Like I said, the idea of any sort of "equivalence" between CC and OC is absurd

How about CC'ing by yourself downtown late at night, or OC'ing with about 300 other OC'ers downtown late at night? I'd rather be with all the armed people.

Frankie it seems like you want people that OC ( I do neither btw) to fall all over themselves saying, "oh you are so right, no one OC anymore".

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

Big45 writes: How about CC'ing by yourself downtown late at night, or OC'ing with about 300 other OC'ers downtown late at night? I'd rather be with all the armed people.

Frankie it seems like you want people that OC ( I do neither btw) to fall all over themselves saying, "oh you are so right, no one OC anymore".

OC'ing in a group is clearly a huge deterrent to any sort of assault. Just as OC'ing alone in crowded circumstances such as are frequently encountered in urban environments is clearly a net minus.

What I want people to do is to acknowledge reality instead of passing along bad tactical advice just because it fits their gun rights world view.

As it happens, I am right, I know I am right, and I make no apologies for it.

 

[Rexster]

Keep in mind that snatch attempts of concealed guns just might be happening when the bad guy is trying to snatch things in general, and a concealed weapon just happens to be there.

 

[Flintknapper]

frankie_the_yankee wrote:

What I want people to do is to acknowledge reality instead of passing along bad tactical advice just because it fits their gun rights world view.

As it happens, I am right, I know I am right, and I make no apologies for it.

Reply:
ARE YOU right Frankie, or are you just stubborn?


You refuse to consider the implications of the poll I took, which is basically what is written below.

If you feel it too dangerous to OC (given your lifestyle) fine, don’t do it. But, don’t try to convince the rest of us that OC in urban areas= certain death.

Your points are well taken, now please stop “mothering” the rest of us.



From one of many other discussions:

frankie_the_yankee wrote:

So the number that really matters for someone who is comtemplating OC'ing regularly in urban areas is 5/160.

It only has to happen once for it to be a very big deal.

Reply:
Depends on how you want to look at it. This is akin to saying you don’t think it’s a good idea to fly ( fill in the blank) airlines because you read where one of their planes crashed.

This myopic view of things completely ignores that the plane had flown for 25 years, made tens of thousands of take-offs and landings, and traveled a distance equal to going to the moon and back several times over.

I provided you the figures in my previous post to illustrate what I have written above.

I think it more accurately depicts what happens when people OC. I didn’t do that to support my position, as much I did to reveal what I feel is a very important point.


frankie_the_yankee wrote:

If the chances of a snatch are 1.5 million to 1, and in the course of a year I encounter 15,000 opportunities, (OC for 150 days @ 100 opportunities per day) the chances of a snatch or attempt in that year are 100 to 1.

Here, you are trying to persuade us that the “chance” for a snatch is “100 to 1” for any person that OC’s (consistent with the average above). You do this by trying to reduce OC to its lowest common denominator. That succeeds in producing a number that appears on the surface to be something of concern (just like the airplane).

Problem is, it ignores the huge amount of variables involved. I would wager that I could OC the rest of my life and NEVER experience a snatching (or an attempt). My lifestyle, my demeanor, my travels, my training, etc….just about guarantee I won’t have a problem. The exact opposite could be said of someone else.

Yet, by your calculations….we all have exactly a “100 to 1” chance of being the victim of a snatch!

No Sir, anyway you spin that….it just doesn’t work.

That is why I presented you with the “opportunities per day” figure. Besides being a more accurate depiction of what OC really involves, it tends to show that most people, most places, are not out to “get your gun”.

That should be soothing news to you.

It doesn’t mean we should let our guard down, it doesn’t mean it “couldn’t happen”.

Still, if we look at your figures (only because they are right there above us), it pans out like this:

160 people OC an average of 150 days and encounter 100 other persons (potential snatchers) per day.

That equals 2.4 MILLION opportunities for someone to snatch a pistol from the 160 persons cited, during the course of a year.

Now, when we look at this way (and not the plane crash way), what we find is quite revealing:

It means: Of 2.4 MILLION “people” (that is what an “opportunity” is, a person) 5 chose to snatch (or attempt to snatch) someone’s pistol.

It also means: 2,399,995 people DID NOT! That tells me that I needn’t walk around in perpetual fear of my fellow man.

I am equally aware that BG’s don’t come in “numerical order”. I realize too, that the very first time I OC’ed, someone “could” try me. But, per the stats, I am confident I’ll be O.K. and suggest that you would be too.

Keep yours eyes open, be reasonably aware of your surroundings and don’t stay where trouble appears to be brewing.

So, each person… with regard their lifestyle and concern for their personal safety, must take the numbers presented above and apply them as they see fit.

Regards,

Flint

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

flintknapper writes: This topic started with you nearly two years ago on the TexasCHLforum.

Better check that. I've only been registered on TXCHLforum since April 2007.

frankie_the_yankee wrote: So the number that really matters for someone who is comtemplating OC'ing regularly in urban areas is 5/160.

It only has to happen once for it to be a very big deal.

flintknapper replied: Depends on how you want to look at it.

The way I want to look at it is that if it happens to me just once, that will be too many times.

frankie_the_yankee wrote: If the chances of a snatch are 1.5 million to 1, and in the course of a year I encounter 15,000 opportunities, (OC for 150 days @ 100 opportunities per day) the chances of a snatch or attempt in that year are 100 to 1.

flintknapper replies: Here, you are trying to persuade us that the “chance” for a snatch is “100 to 1” for any person that OC’s (consistent with the average above). You do this by trying to reduce OC to its lowest common denominator. That succeeds in producing a number that appears on the surface to be something of concern (just like the airplane).

No. It just follows from your numbers from basic probability. I'll admit it is not an exact calculation, but it's close.

Your 'couple of million to 1' number comes from dividing opportunities by reported snatches or attempts. And you defined an opportunity as an OC'er encountering one person. Then you pointed out (correctly) that an OC'er moving about in a big city on a given day is likely to "encounter" 50 to 100 people. That means that each day's exposure is to 50 or 100 opportunities. The numbers follow on from there.

flintknapper writes: Problem is, it ignores the huge amount of variables involved. I would wager that I could OC the rest of my life and NEVER experience a snatching (or an attempt). My lifestyle, my demeanor, my travels, my training, etc….just about guarantee I won’t have a problem. The exact opposite could be said of someone else.

Maybe so? But,

1) How do you know?

2) What relevance does that have for someone else? (Answer: None.)

You might be a big tough badass with a black belt in Aikido. Why would someone think that what applies for you would also apply to a 60 year old 110 lb. female who needs help opening a jar of grape jelly?

flintknapper writes: It means: Of 2.4 MILLION “people” (that is what an “opportunity” is, a person) 5 chose to snatch (or attempt to snatch) someone’s pistol.

No. A person is not an opportunity. A "person" encounters 100 opportunities per day. So all it means is that out of 2.5 million "opportunities" there were 5 snatches or attempts.

flintknapper writes: It also means: 2,399,995 people DID NOT! That tells me that I needn’t walk around in perpetual fear of my fellow man.

No. All it means is that 2,399,995 "opportunities" did not involve any sort of snatch. At 100 opportunities per day over a one year time period, it means that 5/160 people experienced a snatch of snatch attempt while OC'ing and 155 people did not.

flintknapper writes: Keep yours eyes open, be reasonably aware of your surroundings and don’t stay where trouble appears to be brewing.

Keep your head on a swivel, be careful not to let anyone get close to you, even when it's "normal" like when waiting in line at Mickey-D's, and pucker up like a frightened turtle if you cannot avoid someone getting close to you.

Then heave a great big sigh of relief when you get home without having your gun snatched.

 

[Big45]

What I want people to do is to acknowledge reality instead of passing along bad tactical advice just because it fits their gun rights world view.

The highlighted part seems to be the point of all this then I am assuming? Why not live and let live?

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

Big45 writes: The highlighted part seems to be the point of all this then I am assuming? Why not live and let live?

Because when people act on bad advice regarding carrying guns, people can get in trouble, hurt, or killed.

 

[Big45]

All of which for the most part has absolutely nothing to do with YOU. Your pleas sound less altruistic and more nanny/father knows best to me....just my opinion.

 

[Flintknapper]

Frankie wrote:

Better check that. I've only been registered on TXCHLforum since April 2007.

Reply:

You are correct on that point, below is your post. I was thinking of johnKSa when I posted. My apologies for the misrepresentation. As you said, you were not involved in the first thread. I will go immediately and edit my post.


http://www.texasshooting.com/TexasC...postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=open+carry



I stand by my other statements and numbers.

Flint.

 

[Flintknapper]

Frankie wrote:

Keep your head on a swivel, be careful not to let anyone get close to you, even when it's "normal" like when waiting in line at Mickey-D's, and pucker up like a frightened turtle if you cannot avoid someone getting close to you.

Then heave a great big sigh of relief when you get home without having your gun snatched.

Reply:
Frankie, please……we’ve gone though this already. It appears to me that the “puckered turtle” thing is the result of your experience in Arizona where you got all “spooked” that someone was going to snatch your gun. Of course, it didn’t happen. Since then... you’ve been on a crusade to tell us all how dangerous OC is.

The chances of anyone having their gun snatched is small. That remains true whether you are a hulking linebacker or an old man with a cane. The figures I provided make that abundantly clear. Most people are just not out to “get your gun”. The success rate of those who would try... depends upon may factors, as I have already pointed out. Every person must evaluate the risks for themselves. Simple.




Frankie wrote:

And when they do, in places where other people are around, they spend the whole time puckered up like a frightened turtle and heave a sigh of relief when they get home without having the gun snatched.

in general walk around town all puckered up like a frightened turtle worried that someone might try to snatch their gun.

So in other words, if you're standing in line OC-ing and 4 bangers get in line behind you, you get all puckered up like a frightened turtle

I'm not going to go around town all puckered up like a frightened turtle worried that someone's gonna grab my gun. Nor do I want to burden myself with some elaborate retention rig. And these days I am not physically capable of going very far with martial arts training.

I don't want to have to walk around town "all puckered up like a frightened turtle" (to coin a phrase). I'd rather have an ace in the hole.

Hey, I still think it is a good line. Feel free to use it yourself any time you want.

Okie Dokie!


I think I know now where it stems from:

Frankie Wrote:

All I will say is, walk into an urban quickie mart full of BG types while carrying openly in a non-retention type holster, and then talk to me about it. I've been there, I have the teeshirt, and I'm working on the book deal

I've been in one of "those situations" while openly carrying in Phoenix. (I was visiting and did it as sort of an experiment.) Too much drama for me. I would have been much more comfortable carrying concealed.

And you can run into a "crowd" at a convenience store or a Mickey-D's. It doesn't take too many people to form a "crowd" if they are the wrong kind of people (i.e. street punk types) and they are behind you.

So all I can tell you is to visit a bad area in Phoenix and openly carry in a non-retention holster while touring area quickie marts and other places where gangsta types might congregate

I wonder if he has ever open carried in the middle of the ghetto in a big city in an open topped holster surrounded by 4 gangsta type people who were twice as big as he was and a lot younger

I have open carried for a couple of days in Phoenix. I experienced some drama that would never had happened if I was carrying concealed.

Scenario 3: You're in a convenience store OC-ing and standing in line to pay for your purchases. Behind you are 4 gangsta types, much larger than you who notice your gun in its open-topped holster. They realize that they can easily ambush and overpower you, take the gun and make their escape before anyone else present can do anything.

BTW, I'm not making this one up. I lived through it, all except the snatch attempt. For whatever reason, they decided not to go through with it - THAT time.

Reply:
In a nutshell, Frankie got "puckered up like a frightened turtle" one time and has never forgotten it. So, because of that...no one else should EVER carry openly in urban areas.


And he certainly entered this discussion with an open mind:

Frankie Wrote:

Armed citizens do not need to carry openly. They do not need to take on the added risk. That being the case, IMO it is foolish to do so.

I'd say that people might get shot with their own guns if they are carrying openly.

It ain't my problem if someone gets their darn fool head blown off.

I open carry on my ranch. I think it is stupid to do so in a crowded urban environment.

I merely think it is D-U-M-B to carry openly in an urban environment.

Don't make me laugh. I wouldn't trust anything I saw on that website.

__________________

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

Some pretty good quotes thre, Flint. Any chance you could take a turn editing the book on open carry that I'm working on?

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

flint writes: The chances of anyone having their gun snatched is small. That remains true whether you are a hulking linebacker or an old man with a cane. ..... Most people are just not out to “get your gun”. The success rate of those who would try... depends upon may factors, as I have already pointed out. Every person must evaluate the risks for themselves.

Sure. But I suspect that the chances are not the same for the old man with the cane (or the typical woman) and the hulking linebacker. Rather than simply saying that people must "evaluate the risks for themselves", I would go a bit further and advise the old man with the cane that it is likely to be much riskier for him to OC in crowded environments than the linebacker.

flint writes: In a nutshell, Frankie got "puckered up like a frightened turtle" one time and has never forgotten it. So, because of that...no one else should EVER carry openly in urban areas.

The way you pour over my many previous posts is impressive. Almost like you're one of my biggest fans. Please find a quote from me where I say that "no one else should ever carry openly in urban areas".

I simply would like OC proponents to acknowledge the truth - that OC in urban environments involves added risk compared to CC, (unless you are in a group where 2 or more people are OC'ing) and should only be attempted by people who accept and fully understand these risks and are prepared to cope with them.

Instead, what I read is a lot of squawking about peoples' rights, and that if they are not exercised they will melt away, mixed in with speculation (presented as fact) that BG's would never think of ambushing someone and grabbing their gun because they would be too scared at the sight of it.

These are interspersed with engrossing "stories" like, "I OC'd today. Went to quickie mart, Target, Home Depot, and Walgreens. Saw 2 cops. I think they saw me. No incidents." These are presented as if they represent some kind of accomplishment.

Do you ever wonder why you never read accounts like this on CC forums?

It seems to me that a lot of people who OC fascinate themselves by simply doing it out in public without getting thrown in jail. IOW, "crusading". I've read accounts from some people in TX saying that if OC were permitted there they would get a low slung holster and a SAA type pistol and OC it. Makes me wonder if they would squint a lot into the sun and spit tobacco juice at peoples's feet with a sneer on their faces.

So what I say is, OC should be legal. People should be able to do it if they want to. OC proponents should acknowledge the risks of doing it in various environments and that it is not a good idea for everybody. OC proponents should also educate people on ways of mitigating those risks rather than denying they exist and blathering on about their rights.

Do you know of anyone (besides the cops) who runs a training course for people who want to OC? This could cover tactics, retention techniques, different types of retention holsters available, when to OC, when not to OC, the laws in different states, etc. If not, why not? (Lack of demand? But that would mean that almost no one does it. But... but.... but..... )

 

[Flintknapper]

Yada, Yada, Yada......................

 

[PT-Partners]

I carry not one but two. My primary line of work has made a bit more cautious or may be a bit more aware of what can happen.

I also realize random violence is a very low percentage but it is increasing in frequency and violence by someone who knows you is significantly higher percentage.

Someone you know in most cases is someone who knows you i.e. business, neighborhood, client, customer, etc.

Just some thoughts.

 

[Mtnvalley]

Refusing to carry because of the possibility of a snatch reminds me of a story James Yeager tells.

A student of his once commented on all the liability suits, how you can be sued even if it was a good shoot, etc. etc....then announced that he stopped carrying because "he had too much to lose".

Most of us civvys know that, no matter how much we train, odds are fairly decent that we'll never have to use "for real" the skills we're developing. Nonetheless, we choose to prepare ourselves for defense against uninitiated conflict as much as our individual motivation and time allows.

One could always find one reason or another not to carry (whether the reason makes sense to others or not)...and the majority of the public does just that. If one is overly (IMHO unduly) concerned about grab attempts on a concealed weapon, and chooses to stop carrying instead of taking other steps (training in retention techniques, deeper concealment, higher retention-level holster, better situational awareness)...I guess it only has to make sense to them, not to me.

Then again, I'm not duty-bound to protect them and their family from harm. Someone who is might coincidentally be right there if they are attacked and comparatively defenseless. Just as in "Angels in the Outfield"...it could happen.

 

[Big45]

I simply would like OC proponents to acknowledge the truth - that OC in urban environments involves added risk compared to CC,

You are probably right, but it's this need for validation that makes no sense to me Who cares if people OC with added risk? What does it have to do with you?

I'll relate it to something I have experienced. I have learned powerlifting/weightlifting from some of the best. I am not a great powerlifter by any means, but I was taught by guys who own bench press records, are current NCAA and NFL strength coaches, own renowed gyms like Westside Barbell club in Ohio, etc. That was years ago when I was more active. Now I workout far less but still workout some.

The very first thing I learned was that you never, never, never, ever bother another guy during his lift. And you never give someone advice in a gym. Ever. If they don't ask, mind your own business.

Now I've been a member of several other gyms over the years, and I still see it all the time. And yes occasionally some goon who is bigger and stronger than me will come over to me and offer this or that, to which I politely listen and then go on about my business. And yes from time to time I see people who could use some advice on form, but do I ever say anything? Never. It's got nothing to do with me. Now if a guy is pinned under a bar with no help well of course I'll go help the guy.

I think the lesson I learned was that it's rude to offer advice when none is requested. Out on the street, like in the gym, I am only concerned with myself. I don't care what others are doing.

 

[fletcher]

Regularly carry, no snatch attempts, nor have I ever heard of a CC snatch attempt.

 

[frankie_the_yankee]

frankie_the_yankee wrote: I simply would like OC proponents to acknowledge the truth - that OC in urban environments involves added risk compared to CC,

Big45 responds: You are probably right, ...

Thanks.

Big45 continues: ....but it's this need for validation that makes no sense to me Who cares if people OC with added risk? What does it have to do with you?

Well, maybe people who naively OC based on bad advice they got on the internet and have their guns snatched or worse might care (even if too late).

Also, I have encountered people advocating OC on various fora, and have responded by pointing out the obvious tactical drawbacks in urban environments. The OC advocates responded by saying that my concerns were unfounded, that snatches never happened, and even that I was anti-gun, didn't know what I was talking about, "stupid", "an idiot", etc.

Of course, all the while they are saying those things, they are also talking about keeping their distance from people, keeping their heads "on a swivel", avoiding certain places, (like crowded buses, lines at Mickey-D's, etc.) and other weird behaviors that they engage in to prevent the snatches that, according to them, my concerns over are baseless.

I am simply trying to explain and make the argument that OC in urban areas has tactical drawbacks and that I would not recommend it for most people. What amazes me is the continued spurious arguments that OC advocates continue to put forth.

So I say if you want to OC in urban areas to carve out the right to do it, go for it. If you want to raise peoples' consciousness, go for it. If you want to crusade for OC, go for it.

Just don't try to tell me that it is tactically superior to CC in urban environments.