Probabilities or Worst Case Scenario?

[Coyote3855]

I live in a rural area on 50 acres with a long driveway. I still have a long gun next to the bed and an alarm on said driveway. I volunteer every weekday for 3-4 hours in a city of 60K that has a few carjackings and occasional gang related drive by shootings. I carry a micro 11+1 every day and have it within reach at home. I follow the stupid, stupid, stupid rules and work hard at being situationally aware at all times. I'm prepared to apologize profusely, de escalate if I can, run and hide if possible. I shoot drills on my home range weekly. My worst case scenario will probably occur because I failed to pay attention.

I walked out of the house last week without my gun. I was surprised how vulnerable I felt and how much more aware of surroundings I was.

 

[.38 Special]

The whole point of preparing towards "worst case", is to push yourself to actually "prepare" and be at least somewhat prepared and competent.

Or, you can say that anything you're going to encounter is going to happen at 3 yards, in 3 seconds, with 3 rounds, and just throw a mouse gun in your pocket, whenever you feel like it, call it good, and the rest will be history or a statistic of some sort.

Im sure anyone caught flat footed in a food court, bowling alley, school hallways, etc, who only had a back up gun in their pocket and never bothered to work on anything even remotely realistic, would say well, that's not what the gun I have is for, I planned on something else, so....... whatever.

Then again, if the assessment and possibilities tell you don't bother, nothing bad is "likely" to happen where Im going today, you can just leave the gun at home and carry on. Why even bother with the added weight?

I still get the impression there are a couple of schools of thought here. On one hand, you have those who take this a bit more seriously and put some thought and effort into things, and those who are just more casual about it, and happy knowing they have a gun, if and when they decide to carry one, but really don't go much beyond that.

And both ways are fine, if your choice makes you happy. You pays your money and takes your chances.

What does bother me though, especially when you start to dwell on things a bit is, there are a lot of people out there (a lot of them friends and family) carrying guns, who literally have no training, and never practice with them, and to me, they are as much a threat, and maybe even more so to all of us, than the bad guys.

That cuts both ways. In my view, far too many people have all their eggs in the "gun" basket: even if they carry every day and train hard, they are completely unprepared for a scenario where they don't have the opportunity to draw. In other words, none of us are as completely prepared as we could be, so a lot of this sort of stuff ends up being "This is the level at which I personally am comfortable. Anyone who does more is paranoid, and anyone who does less is going to be a statistic."

 

[.38 Special]

Well, my take on what the OP was speaking to is, what is the most probable situation we may run into while carrying a concealed handgun, or what is the worst-case situation we could possibly counter while carrying a concealed handgun, and which are we preparing for...

I suspect most of us here are very clear that a handgun will not help us against a sniper three blocks away.

My worst worst-case would actually be Kim Jong Un or the Ayatollah finally getting an ICBM to work and detonating a nuke over Puget Sound. That's not something I prepare for by carrying a handgun.

But the possibility of me encountering a pair or three of armed gangbangers wanting to carjack my SUV? Almost likely in parts of my region. Assuming I was paying attention, I'd like my odds.

My wife just witnessed an armed carjacking in the middle of the afternoon in the parking lot of an upscale grocery store in an upscale neighborhood a couple weeks ago. And the woman who was the victim was getting into the same make and model of my wife's soccer-mom SUV. Not long ago as well, my daughter was taking her baby in to an urgent care clinic, she had quite the wait, as a mentally ill (local homeless) man carrying a large hunting knife had a few minutes before walked in and started slashing a woman at the reception desk.

Here's the news about the armed carjacking ring (already one homicide) operating in the area:
https://komonews.com/news/local/kin...e-court-arrest-gunpoint-firearm-gun-violence#

And just a quiet midweek around the Sound -- if this is what's happening on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays in the middle of the day around here -- imagine our Saturday nights.

https://komonews.com/news/local/fed...san-350z-newer-spoiler-shooter-white-man-30s#
https://komonews.com/news/local/lak...er-harm-living-room-police-investigation-spd#
https://komonews.com/news/local/tac...south-sound-911-violence-crime-pierce-county#
https://komonews.com/news/local/sea...edan-four-hospital-harborview-medical-center#
https://komonews.com/news/local/bel...c-ifit-bpd-deadly-force-incident-age-on-duty#

Absolutely. But again, that's not training for the worst case, but rather training for what is an assessed risk.

 

[drk1]

"Worst Case Scenario…. outlandish contingencies…." ???

1963 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1963 – mother raped
1964 – garage broken into
1964 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1965 – grandfather robbed at gun point
1966 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1967 – grandfather robbed at gun point 3 times
1975 – finance strangled to death
1982 – attempted mugging
1985 – house broken into and robbed
1987 – friend knifed and robbed
1987 – mugged and robbed
1988 – house broken into and robbed
1990 – garage broken into and robbed
1990 – mugged and robbed
1991 – woman raped across from house
1991 – 2 people killed, 1 wounded < 400 ft from house
1991 – house broken into and robbed
1992 – nearby business robbed, 2 employees beaten
1992 – nearby business robbed, 3 employees murdered
1993 – wife beaten, robbed, raped, eventually dies
1994 – house hit with gunfire
1995 – neighbor's van stolen from driveway
1999 – friend murdered
2002 – friend's house hit by gunfire
2005 – friend murdered
….. and the list goes on and on. The only real question is how many more outlandish scenarios will I have to face before I die.

 

[MikeInOr]

I have been carrying for over 30 years. I have only drawn my carry piece and I was glad I had it on me. A friend totaled her Honda Accord in an encounter with a deer. She was close to my place and called for help (after calling 911). I got there, secured her children in my car and calmed her down a bit (she is pretty level headed). We found the deer on the side of the highway convulsing with 3 of its legs mangled. One 380 slug from my LCP through the eye socket put the deer out of its misery. A half hour later a sheriffs deputy showed up, sized up the situation and asked what happened to the deer. I told him that I put it down which didn't even merit a reaction from him.

Now days I usually carry a Diamondback DB9 which is the largest gun I can effectively pocket carry. Between my LCP, DB9 and XDs in 45 acp I really am covered quite well.

My "many" other firearms are pretty much fantasy "Red Dawn" weapons purchased on the very scientific basis of "Lethal Weapon", "Die Hard", etc. Do I need a Ruger PC Charger with a binary trigger, folding stock and multiple 33 round sticks? Not really... BUT I COULD! A lot of others on this forum also seem to purchase firearms based on action movie principals. I do to, I just don't try to defend my purchases as anything other than fantasy situations and I never try to tell others that they need "more gun" based on these absurd contentions. In all truth, if Bruce Willys was better armed the movie would have been a flop at the box office.

If I felt that I needed to be carrying a 17 round 45 acp or 10mm with a couple of extra magazines to be properly protected in most any possible circumstance I would most likely carry only occasionally instead of every time I leave the house.

 

[BLACKHAWKNJ]

I trained at a Jeet Kun Do school years ago, one guest instructor said "Your opponent will be a 6'6" giant on PCP !"
In No Second Place Winner Bill Jordan says of the 44 Magnum "Although it is unlikely you will need a second shot against someone clobbered with this cannon, the possibility that he might have a confederate cannot be overlooked."
"Overtraining" was the word I heard in my Army days. Recall an article in American Handgunner where a top police instructor found a lot of his students couldn't group, he forced them to shoot at a 2"x2" square.
Been years since I changed a flat tire but I still keep one in the trunk.

 

[usaral63]

Like JAR, I'm an old fossil as well........actually got a year or two on him.....but unlike him I am not gonna finish out my years in a hide. My .380 is ALWAYS in my pocket, just easier to pack and hide than something larger, I will frequent those places JAR won't simply for the reason that I refuse to withdraw from life. Use that pocket pistol? Only if I absolutely have to and then preferably only at can't miss distance........to the eyeball/stomach/gonads............foot or hand if I gotta! You do what you gotta do as the circumstance dictates. I did over three decades as a LEO/CLEO and I well remember No Second Place Winner...............and scuffling around for a piece is outta the question at this stage.................try a wet bathroom/buck naked crackhead trying to wrestle your pistol from your hand with the shower going full blast..............thank the good Lord those days are done!

Still, that little insurance policy, be it a pp or micro mini NAA can save your bacon if you use the best weapon you've got, your brain..............think! And yep, my old 645 lives under the front seat in my pickup when I'm in it. Pulls my pants off trying to wear it tho!

 

[buck460XVR]

I think the biggest fantasy is believing that because you carry a gun, of some sort, you're armed and prepared.

And it seems there are a LOT of people into fantasy out there, which is really pretty scary when you get to thinking about it.

^^^ This.

I see so many here spend tons of monies and time worrying about TEOTWAWKI or holding off a hoard of armed terrorists, when they are more at risk of a heart attack from the stress of it all. Yes, we must be prepared. We also must be observant and always aware of our surroundings, because that is what is more important than the gun you carry or the amount of rounds on your person. Always amazed when I go hunting or hiking with someone in a new area and they don't think to look at the surroundings before they leave the parking area. Instead, they are more concerned with checking their phone for the last text message or FaceBook post they may have missed. Altho they have every tool known to man for the outdoors, they couldn't possibly find their way back without some form of technology.

 

[jmorris]

So what do you think? Is your plan based on a risk assessment that factors probabilities or on worst case scenarios?

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

That’s not how I am just with firearms. I don’t have quick clot in my emergency kits because I come across people bleeding profusely all the time; however, if I do, I would like to be able to actually do some thing other than just watch them die.

Same thing goes for myself, why I carry.

 

[bearcreek]

"Worst Case Scenario…. outlandish contingencies…." ???

1963 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1963 – mother raped
1964 – garage broken into
1964 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1965 – grandfather robbed at gun point
1966 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1967 – grandfather robbed at gun point 3 times
1975 – finance strangled to death
1982 – attempted mugging
1985 – house broken into and robbed
1987 – friend knifed and robbed
1987 – mugged and robbed
1988 – house broken into and robbed
1990 – garage broken into and robbed
1990 – mugged and robbed
1991 – woman raped across from house
1991 – 2 people killed, 1 wounded < 400 ft from house
1991 – house broken into and robbed
1992 – nearby business robbed, 2 employees beaten
1992 – nearby business robbed, 3 employees murdered
1993 – wife beaten, robbed, raped, eventually dies
1994 – house hit with gunfire
1995 – neighbor's van stolen from driveway
1999 – friend murdered
2002 – friend's house hit by gunfire
2005 – friend murdered
….. and the list goes on and on. The only real question is how many more outlandish scenarios will I have to face before I die.

There are a couple more "real" questions. Did this all occur in the same neighborhood/city? If so, why have you stayed there for 40+ years?

 

[Hookeye]

Bad stuff can happen anywhere, any time.
But one can reduce the chances.
IMHO todays criminals are more violent and apt to display such.

I simply want to be left alone.

 

[halfmoonclip]

(If it were 100% true, I'd want an A10 Warthog, but they're awfully hard to conceal.)

Yep, a radio (with a loitering Warthog on the other end) is the ultimate defensive weapon. It does get expensive, and the neighbors will bitch about the noise....
Modern, compact 9mms have changed the equation. A 9mm P365, even the 10 round iteration, comes close to the effectiveness of a service auto, and is a bunch easier to hide. Have a bigger, backup magazine if you wish.
I've a progression of handguns, of varying sizes, with the common denominator of a single operating control (the bangswitch), starting with an LCP, and peaking with the SIG. Depth of concealment, and perhaps an assessment of likely risk, help make the decision of which leaves the house.
Lifestyle and locale help; we live in a relatively safe city, and avoiding drug use and/or other people's wives is a help.
The old joke, "How do you get to Carnegie Hall?", "Practice, practice, practice..." applies to carry guns. Shoot what you carry, shoot it a lot, be comfortable that it will work, and that you can hit things.
Moon

 

[hoardingthemanual]

the lack of guarantees in life causes people to only focus on negative possibilities instead of also considering their likelihood. “Even if you keep your nose out of trouble, trouble can still come to you.”

Let people go all in on long shot odds, is what I say.

 

[halfmoonclip]

View attachment 1183337

Murphy was an optimist.
BTW, the expression "The luck of the Irish" is entirely ironic; perhaps it's why Murphy authored his laws.
Moon

 

[The Night Rider]

Murphy was an optimist.
BTW, the expression "The luck of the Irish" is entirely ironic; perhaps it's why Murphy authored his laws.
Moon

This is off topic and I can't Source it but I seem to remember reading somewhere that Murphy was a real person. He was a quality control supervisor in an airplane Factory, maybe the Boeing factory, during World War II. From what I remember reading he was absolutely zero tolerance on quality control.

I seem to remember that Murphy's Law was his justification for that

 

[BLACKHAWKNJ]

Helmuth Von Moltke the Elder should be remembered for his observation " No plan of operations survives first contact with the enemy."

 

[Jack19]

Drk, I grew up and policed in Detroit......where do you live?????!!!!!!

@drk1

"Worst Case Scenario…. outlandish contingencies…." ???

1963 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1963 – mother raped
1964 – garage broken into
1964 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1965 – grandfather robbed at gun point
1966 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1967 – grandfather robbed at gun point 3 times
1975 – finance strangled to death
1982 – attempted mugging
1985 – house broken into and robbed
1987 – friend knifed and robbed
1987 – mugged and robbed
1988 – house broken into and robbed
1990 – garage broken into and robbed
1990 – mugged and robbed
1991 – woman raped across from house
1991 – 2 people killed, 1 wounded < 400 ft from house
1991 – house broken into and robbed
1992 – nearby business robbed, 2 employees beaten
1992 – nearby business robbed, 3 employees murdered
1993 – wife beaten, robbed, raped, eventually dies
1994 – house hit with gunfire
1995 – neighbor's van stolen from driveway
1999 – friend murdered
2002 – friend's house hit by gunfire
2005 – friend murdered
….. and the list goes on and on. The only real question is how many more outlandish scenarios will I have to face before I die.

 

[.38 Special]

"Worst Case Scenario…. outlandish contingencies…." ???

1963 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1963 – mother raped
1964 – garage broken into
1964 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1965 – grandfather robbed at gun point
1966 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1967 – grandfather robbed at gun point 3 times
1975 – finance strangled to death
1982 – attempted mugging
1985 – house broken into and robbed
1987 – friend knifed and robbed
1987 – mugged and robbed
1988 – house broken into and robbed
1990 – garage broken into and robbed
1990 – mugged and robbed
1991 – woman raped across from house
1991 – 2 people killed, 1 wounded < 400 ft from house
1991 – house broken into and robbed
1992 – nearby business robbed, 2 employees beaten
1992 – nearby business robbed, 3 employees murdered
1993 – wife beaten, robbed, raped, eventually dies
1994 – house hit with gunfire
1995 – neighbor's van stolen from driveway
1999 – friend murdered
2002 – friend's house hit by gunfire
2005 – friend murdered
….. and the list goes on and on. The only real question is how many more outlandish scenarios will I have to face before I die.

Have you considered moving to the nicer part of Mogadishu?

 

[Mike J]

Reading the gun forums is always interesting & educational. I have seen people post about carrying everything from a snub nosed revolver without a reload to carrying a full sized pistol & a back up gun on their person & having a go bag in their vehicle with a semi-auto rifle & multiple magazines. We all make our own choices based on our personal experiences & observations.
Most of my life I didn't feel the need to carry a gun. If I saw trouble coming I simply went the other direction. 16 years or so ago I was in the store with my wife our daughters and one of their cousins. I realized how difficult it was to get a woman, two two year olds, and a one year old to move the same direction at the same time. I decided to stay armed so that I could protect them. I have went through multiple carry guns looking for what works best for me. My current carry is a Ruger Max-9 with a 10 round magazine in the gun & a 12 round reload on my off side. It is a compromise just like any other handgun. I chose it because it offers 10 round capacity of a respectable defense caliber in an easily concealed package.
FWIW I tend to believe paying attention is the best defense. Just being observed to be paying attention could make you a less attractive target.

 

[fastbolt]

the OP, while the post is long, there is a lot of duscussion going on there. Looking at it again, tactics, one thing that jumps out at me is how not to look like an easy target.

This is prudent advice, but it's not like everyone sees things the same way.

I've listened to my fair share of criminals discuss how they target victims, and it's not like they all get the same training.

Some look at whether someone may be armed - AND appear willing to use their weapon.

Others look at the simple physicality of someone. Literally whether they've maintained themselves in good enough shape to offer too much resistance.

Some simply don't care if an intended victim may appear able and willing to fight, or may have a weapon. Hell, these are often the sort of folks who willingly attack cops who are visibly festooned with all manner of gear.

Some state they don't care if a potential victim may be armed, since their plan is to ambush them catch them by surprise, anyway.

Some have no fear of being shot (cut, punched, clubbed, etc) and think they'll get the upper hand and continue the fight. (Mindset isn't something considered just for 'good guys', you know.)

Some think that innocent law-abiding victims are the easiest, since they won't want to risk doing anything that may get them arrested. These seem to be some of the same folks who think that cops will hesitate to use enough force because they're afraid of losing their jobs, and will think about rules before thinking about self preservation.

Lots of different folks who seem to be criminally inclined, and there's no way to know which one you'll get, and how they think.

I tend to try and fall back on my LE-trained and experienced honed radar, to spot probable risks (or even possible risks), and try to situate myself to avoid becoming targeted.

 

[halfmoonclip]

Helmuth Von Moltke the Elder should be remembered for his observation " No plan of operations survives first contact with the enemy."

Mike Tyson remarked "Everybody has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.." Great minds in like channels.
Moon

 

[The Night Rider]

This is worst case scenario.

(That's not actually me in the picture it's just representative of the TA-50 that I was issued in the late 80s).

This is worse case scenario.


New Orleans during Katrina

If something really worst case scenario happens am I going to have time to get all my ta50 on and my body armor and my kevlar and get my AR-15 out of the trunk of my car and get ready before it's over?

 

[dranrab]

I try to be realistic.

I'll be 81 in far too few weeks.

I am not going to win any hand to hand grappling.

I'm not going to run.

I'm not going to make traffic stops.

I'm not going to try to stop domestic disputes.

I'm not going to serve warrants.

I'm not going to try to stop a nut wearing body armor who has a rifle until he is almost at arms length and even then only if there is no other option.

I'm not going to get into fire fights.

I am not going to be in a food court, bowling alley, movie theater, school hallway, mall even a bar or restaurant if I can possibly avoid it.

If something happens it will either happen fast, I will lose, or I will succeed in hiding, sheltering or sneaking away.

I'm not going to try to win any gunfight.

My goal is to survive and if that means hiding or sneaking away then I will hide or sneak away.

My preparation is to not be on my phone, listening to ear buds, looking at a phone or iPad. My preparation is that my head will be on a swivel and I will attempt to avoid crowds and I will be in my car if not at home as much as possible, and when I must get out to pump gas or go to the mail box I will try to shield using as many things as are available. When I do get in the car I lock the door before even putting the key in and uncover my handgun before getting in the car and make sure I can get my gun out after putting on my seat belt. Only then do I back out of the garage.

I try to get to a range at least once a week and concentrate on creating a 10-15 yard zone with a reasonable expectation to control things within that circle.

I plan to NOT take any shot I think I can make.

I plan to NOT take any shots unless there is no other reasonable option.

My plan is to not be a statistic or hero.

This is a very good and realistic post.

Survival is #1. Neutralizing a threat #2. I say this often, because I have encountered far too many people who mentally fantasize about being a hero. Just look at how wonderful Kyle Rittenhouse's life has been since his perfectly justified use of deadly force. Your life is going to suck hard after a perfectly defensible use of deadly force. Make any part of it questionable, and it's going to suck worse.

Not too long ago in the Denver area, the cops took out and armed good guy who was trying to neutralize a threat. When cops roll into a hot scene, everyone with a gun will be processed as an adversary.

 

[EMC45]

The trouble with the "worst case" folks is that you can't prepare for the worst case. The worst case is something like a guy with a rifle sniping you from three blocks away.

So no matter what we tell ourselves, we're all preparing for fights we think we could theoretically win - in other words, "risk assessment and probabilities".

My 3 are: Situational awareness, threat assessment and risk management.

“Worse case scenarios” are often way worse than we’d like given the chance and circumstances.

 

[Mosin77]

1. Every gun ever designed and marketed has one exact niche in which its perfect and a bunch of use-cases where it would be sub-optimal but probably ok. So if you go too much down the rabbithole of planning you could end up with a lot of guns.

2. I tend to defer to the first rule of gunfighting.. have a gun. This means a gun that’s small enough to be on my person when I need it, and reliable enough to go bang. That covers 99% of likely scenarios where I might need a gun in an emergency. The rest (caliber, capacity, back up guns, rifle, etc) are far more academic questions and far less practical, in my opinion.