Probabilities or Worst Case Scenario?

[JohnKSa]

There are two main decisions to be made when it comes to carry:

1. Am I going to carry?
2. What am I going to carry?

When considering #1, the probability of needing a firearm should be considered in concert with the possible downside of needing one and not having it. How likely is it I will need a firearm and what will it cost me if I don't have one when I need it? THIS is the point where you concern yourself with the probabilities of needing a firearm.

IF you decide you will carry, then you are DONE with the probability of needing a firearm. You already used that to determine what your answer to #1 would be. Now you move on to #2 and it is governed by a different set of questions.

When considering #2, the concern is WHAT you will need it for. How many attackers am I likely to face, at what distances, and under what general circumstances? Or, maybe you'd rather look at it from the standpoint of: What am I willing to prepare for in terms of the size of handgun, the capacity, shootability and general performance class? Either one is a valid way to approach the problem. What is NOT valid during the phase of answering #2 is to go back and revisit the probabilities governing the answer to #1. You have already decided that you are going to carry--the probability of needing the gun is no longer relevant. Once you've already decided that you are going to prepare, now you're only deciding what you want to prepare for.

The problem a lot of people have is that they want to use the probability of needing a firearm to determine what kind of firearm they carry. That's all wrong. The probability of needing a firearm goes to determining whether to carry or not. To determine what you should carry, you look at what you will need it to do for you.

 

[balin]

I have had my carry permit since the 80's. And use it routinely. From a logical level I would expect to never need it. I have never known anyone that has needed one. The time and effort of carrying could be better spent using the time to take care of my health and well being. But I carry what I feel comfortable with. Small subcompact and a reload. When going afield it tends to be something with more horse power.

 

[jmr40]

The gun you have with you is a lot better than the one you left at home. The possibility of me needing one are exceedingly small so I tend to prefer a small compact gun along the lines of a G43 or Sig 365 most of the time. If something were to happen where I felt the threat possibility were increase then I'd find a way to carry a bigger, more effective handgun

 

[Kleanbore]

The possibility of me needing one are exceedingly small so I tend to prefer a small compact gun along the lines of a G43 or Sig 365 most of the time. If something were to happen where I felt the threat possibility were increase then I'd find a way to carry a bigger, more effective handgun

You obviously did not read, or you failed to comprehend, John's excellent Post #51, which explains very clearly why your thought process is illogical. He put a lot of time and effort into making it understandable to lay parsons.

This excerpt provides the gist:

The problem a lot of people have is that they want to use the probability of needing a firearm to determine what kind of firearm they carry. That's all wrong. The probability of needing a firearm goes to determining whether to carry or not. To determine what you should carry, you look at what you will need it to do for you.

He did a better job of explanation than I did.

It is a fundamental tenet of risk management to base the design of mitigation strategies on the assumption that the event--the risk--actually does occur, not on what the likelihood of occurrence is thought to be. Reserve the latter for deciding whether or not to carry in the first place.

 

[Speedo66]

"Worst Case Scenario…. outlandish contingencies…." ???

1963 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1963 – mother raped
1964 – garage broken into
1964 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1965 – grandfather robbed at gun point
1966 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1967 – grandfather robbed at gun point 3 times
1975 – finance strangled to death
1982 – attempted mugging
1985 – house broken into and robbed
1987 – friend knifed and robbed
1987 – mugged and robbed
1988 – house broken into and robbed
1990 – garage broken into and robbed
1990 – mugged and robbed
1991 – woman raped across from house
1991 – 2 people killed, 1 wounded < 400 ft from house
1991 – house broken into and robbed
1992 – nearby business robbed, 2 employees beaten
1992 – nearby business robbed, 3 employees murdered
1993 – wife beaten, robbed, raped, eventually dies
1994 – house hit with gunfire
1995 – neighbor's van stolen from driveway
1999 – friend murdered
2002 – friend's house hit by gunfire
2005 – friend murdered
….. and the list goes on and on. The only real question is how many more outlandish scenarios will I have to face before I die.

Wherever you live, I don’t want to.

 

[buck460XVR]

"Worst Case Scenario…. outlandish contingencies…." ???

1963 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1963 – mother raped
1964 – garage broken into
1964 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1965 – grandfather robbed at gun point
1966 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1967 – grandfather robbed at gun point 3 times
1975 – finance strangled to death
1982 – attempted mugging
1985 – house broken into and robbed
1987 – friend knifed and robbed
1987 – mugged and robbed
1988 – house broken into and robbed
1990 – garage broken into and robbed
1990 – mugged and robbed
1991 – woman raped across from house
1991 – 2 people killed, 1 wounded < 400 ft from house
1991 – house broken into and robbed
1992 – nearby business robbed, 2 employees beaten
1992 – nearby business robbed, 3 employees murdered
1993 – wife beaten, robbed, raped, eventually dies
1994 – house hit with gunfire
1995 – neighbor's van stolen from driveway
1999 – friend murdered
2002 – friend's house hit by gunfire
2005 – friend murdered
….. and the list goes on and on. The only real question is how many more outlandish scenarios will I have to face before I die.

Wherever you live, I don’t want to.

^^^ I gotta agree. Instead of what gun I would carry, I would think about what other state to move to.

 

[WYO]

Try to carry a handgun you would prefer to defend yourself with anywhere, everywhere. (Yes, including in a "good area")
For example, most people would prefer a Glock 19 over a LCP 380 - then try to carry the Glock 19 everywhere.
Stop unrequired shirt tucking.

I focus on willingness to engage a threat more than a preference for specific equipment. Most people probably would prefer a rifle with a grenade launcher. I put it like this:
Carry a firearm you are willing to fight with anywhere and everywhere (good or bad area), and under any conditions.
This approach de-emphasizes the "this gun versus that gun" or "this gun for this particular application" approach and puts the emphases on one's mindset and skill set and on training for a worst case scenario with whatever one chooses. Guns (or people, for that matter) with more inherent limitations require more training and also raise the odds of a sub-optimal outcome for the defender.

When considering #2, the concern is WHAT you will need it for. How many attackers am I likely to face, at what distances, and under what general circumstances?

I see that as a major issue. Many people believe in Murphy enough to carry a gun and then become optimists when it comes to their predictions of the details of the engagement. People should apply Murphy's law across the entire spectrum and then blend a combination of firearm and training. They also need to realize that mindset and skill set with the hardware are more important than the hardware.

 

[sgt127]

There is no right answer. You can’t possibly carry one gun to deal with any possible scenario perfectly. Like a car.

If I’m being chased by a serial killer, I’ll take a Mcclaren F1.

If I have to go grocery shopping in deep snow, I’ll take a Dodge Ram 4x4.

Across the desert? Maybe a Humvee.

Know I’m gonna get in a wreck? I’ll take a NASCAR.

Driving through Detroit at 2:00 am? I’ll take a Bradley fighting vehicle.

All perfectly great tools. All with decided advantages. Not the best tool for all jobs.

I generally carry an Sig P239 DAk in 357 SIG with 2 magazines.

I have small hands. Double stack guns don’t fit my hand well.

It has, for me, a bunch of horsepower per round delivered.

It’s incredibly reliable and accurate. I can hit a bad guy across the food court in the mall (that I don’t go to anyway)

It’s flat. Easy to carry appendix. The two flat spare mags hid better that a single double stack.

 

[mokin]

There is no right answer. You can’t possibly carry one gun to deal with any possible scenario perfectly. Like a car.

If I’m being chased by a serial killer, I’ll take a Mcclaren F1.

If I have to go grocery shopping in deep snow, I’ll take a Dodge Ram 4x4.

Across the desert? Maybe a Humvee.

Know I’m gonna get in a wreck? I’ll take a NASCAR.

Driving through Detroit at 2:00 am? I’ll take a Bradley fighting vehicle.

All perfectly great tools. All with decided advantages. Not the best tool for all jobs.

I generally carry an Sig P239 DAk in 357 SIG with 2 magazines.

I have small hands. Double stack guns don’t fit my hand well.

It has, for me, a bunch of horsepower per round delivered.

It’s incredibly reliable and accurate. I can hit a bad guy across the food court in the mall (that I don’t go to anyway)

It’s flat. Easy to carry appendix. The two flat spare mags hid better that a single double stack.

View attachment 1183920

Holster speaks volumes.

 

[mokin]

This has been very thought provoking. After reading over two pages, I find myself in the 80/20 area. Like @sgt127 alluded, you can hedge your bets. I will vary what equipment I carry based on the environment, climbing a mountain, crossing a desert, or running a river... but there is no single solution.

Having a gun on you won't protect you from attack. It may increase your odds of getting to see your loved ones at the end of the day though.

 

[halfmoonclip]

Having various sized carry guns is more a matter of what can reasonably be carried. If it is a situation where concealment is absolutely vital, the LCP is far better than a sharp stick.
On our trips out of state, I'm more inclined to take the 365, simply because it remains relatively easy to conceal, fires a service caliber round, and holds rotsa shots.
Around town, the G42 seems an adequate option.
I agree with JohnKSa; the initial decision to carry is the vital one.
But some adjustments to what may be prudent, depending on circumstances.
Moon

 

[Barmcd]

"Worst Case Scenario…. outlandish contingencies…." ???

1963 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1963 – mother raped
1964 – garage broken into
1964 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1965 – grandfather robbed at gun point
1966 – grandfather knifed and robbed
1967 – grandfather robbed at gun point 3 times
1975 – finance strangled to death
1982 – attempted mugging
1985 – house broken into and robbed
1987 – friend knifed and robbed
1987 – mugged and robbed
1988 – house broken into and robbed
1990 – garage broken into and robbed
1990 – mugged and robbed
1991 – woman raped across from house
1991 – 2 people killed, 1 wounded < 400 ft from house
1991 – house broken into and robbed
1992 – nearby business robbed, 2 employees beaten
1992 – nearby business robbed, 3 employees murdered
1993 – wife beaten, robbed, raped, eventually dies
1994 – house hit with gunfire
1995 – neighbor's van stolen from driveway
1999 – friend murdered
2002 – friend's house hit by gunfire
2005 – friend murdered
….. and the list goes on and on. The only real question is how many more outlandish scenarios will I have to face before I die.

That's a lot of bad stuff happening in your life.

 

[Oldschool shooter]

When I took my training course to get my CPL, my trainer, who was never a police officer, but was in 2 shootouts with bad guys when he lived in Detroit, had a saying. One is none, 2 is 1, and 3 is probably good. I seldom go into the city, but when I do, I follow that rule. Normally I pocket carry a J frame with extra rounds . Sometimes I carry and XDs .45 or a .40 Shields. My opinion, the most important things are to know your carry weapon, and there is no such thing as too much practice with it.

 

[sgt127]

Holster speaks volumes.

That actually means a lot. Thank you.

 

[tws3b2]

76 years old. Traveled too many not so nice places in many small not so nice towns in most southeast states for work and pleasure. Worked around many not so nice people for near 40 years. Don't do drugs, don't carry much money, diamond rings or gold. Nothing in my home worth dying for except my family. Never needed, felt I needed or wished I had a gun on me at any time.
Logic and reason = ???

 

[hso]

handgun purchasing decisions are based on fantasy

Yep

 

[plainsdrifter]

Lets try and not get political.

For me I've had guns pulled on me twice. Once I saw it coming and could have pulled a gun if I'd had one on me. The guy fired off a round near my foot.
The second time it was a surprise and he got the drop on me.
Both very uncomfortable situations that were NOT in bad parts of town.
Criminals do travel around looking for opportunities.
That said I always carry and I will always be ready. I have three main carry guns, my Ruger Max9 w/extra mag, a SP101 with two speed loaders and a LCP. 380 with one extra mag.
The LCP being the one I carry where I least expect to need one. But you can never tell.

 

[Kleanbore]

76 years old

79+ here.

Never needed, felt I needed or wished I had a gun on me at any time.

I have.