What's up with all of the SHTF threads?

[Fletchette]

Remember the 1984 Winter Olympics in Sarejevo? Remember how all the talking heads gushed and said that the city and people were so sophisticated and educated. They were cosmopolitan, even if they were a Communist nation. We were told they were "just like us".

What if they were right?

 

[AStone]

I'm standing with...

Steve (SM), NineseveN, Travis, Mongo, Pilot, Fletchette & Cosmo ...

Yeah, what they said.

More to come, but I'm going to eat dinner first.

Nem

 

[NineseveN]

More to come, but I'm going to eat dinner first.

Did you make enough to share with the rest of the class?

 

[AStone]

Did you make enough to share with the rest of the class?

Ooooh, darn. If you'd only spoken earlier...

Fantastic dinner: tacos grande al pastor with lime & green chile salsa with a side of refried beans, scored earlier today from a new Mexican bistro, then heated up for dindin.

Sooo sorry.
_______

Now, about this SHTF issue.

Here's my take on it. In the spirit of SM, it's long. No offense taken if you skip this post. If you're going to read it, get a fill up on your coffee or another beer now.

1) Like someone else wrote, I've always been a 'be prepared' kind of guy. Boy scout? No. I quit the cub scouts and never went further. (My den mother was a total b***h.)

But in my 20's, I became a backpacker, then a mountaineer. In the high country of Colorado & New Mexico (above 11000'), I learned the meaning of SHTF: when you don't expect the weather that you get hit with, when the backpacking stove quits, when it's nearly too wet to build a fire to cook on, let alone keep warm, and it's two days walk out, you'd darned well better be prepared. Otherwise, hypothermia sets in, and you're an ice cube.

More recently, I led trips into the mountains in the Pac NW for students. In the directions for the trip, I clearly specified, "no cotton clothing, rain gear required".

An older student - retired physician - showed up. No rain gear, cotton sweat shirt. So, I decided to let him stay. (Normally I kick such unprepared people out of camp, but in this case...). That night, we were hit by a ferocious August storm that lasted 4 days: heavy winds; temps dropped 30 degrees from a balmy 70 to a cold, wet 40 (that's day time). He learned his lesson the hard way.

2) I always find it sadly hilarious that people who have grown up in the US during stable political, economic times (1945 - 2005) think that nothing could ever happen here that would disrupt that peaceful comfort that we've experienced during those 60 years. It's all good. Minor bumps along the way, but all is good, cause uncle sam, along with the local LEO's gonna take care of us. Help is just a 911 call away. If times get hard, there's always welfare. If times get really hard, and my house is destroyed by (choose one or more) hurricane, tornado, earthquake, terrorist bomb, then FEMA will come to my rescue. No problemo.

What short memories humans have. May I remind you: revolutionary war beginning circa 1776; civil war; WWI (accompanied by that nasty virus outbreak); the great depression (imagine such a thing now, in THIS culture, characterized by MUCH more violence than then).

3) I'm an ecologist (with a BS, 2 MS, & a Ph.D.). I'm NOT an environmentalist, but an ecologist. I understand better than most of you that no species, including our own, can continue to increase its numbers indefinitely without crossing a critical threshold of resources to sustain it, after which its population 'crashes'. The crash is not smooth, gradual and predictable, but fast & unpredictable. That's why it's called 'CRASH'.

Our numbers - globally speaking - continue to grow exponentially. We are doubling about every 40 years since the early 1900's. In the 1910's, the global population of humans was ~1.25 billion. By 1950, when I was born, we were at 2.5 billion. In 1990, we crossed 5 billion. Now, we're at 6 billion plus. We're heading exponentially towards 10 billion.

We've got agriculture going in every piece of arable land on the planet. We've got approximately 50-70 days of grain (wheat, corn, rice... which feeds the humans on the planet, regardless of whether you're vegan or eat steak twice a day) in the "pipeline". {Translation: if agriculture shut down tomorrow, you've got that many days of grain to feed the planet.}

We're near capacity. Without another agricultural 'green revolution' such as occured in the 1950's, our grain supply will NOT keep up with population numbers.

4) I teach systems sciences. The mathematics of systems sciences is known as 'nonlinear dynamics'. The sciences of the last 300 years has been based on 'linear dynamics'. Newton's laws of motion - the foundation of modern science - are based on linear equations, which are well-behaved, predictable, with smooth transitions.

Non-linear dynamics, which are far, far, far more reasonable representations of nature, are ill-behaved, unpredictable, with sharp, unpredictable, often catestrophic transitions (AKA phase transitions). Metal girders don't slowly, predictably bend in half, they "SNAP". Iron doesn't gradually become magnetic below 1044*K, it sharply becomes magnetic. Pandemics don't spread gradually, they spread rapidly above a critical threshold.

Read my lips: transitions in nature are not smooth, gradual and predictable. They are rough, fast, unpredictable and often brutish. Those who are caught unawares become fodder for natural selection. (See posts by Cosmoline in this thread for consequences.)

5) Following are the SHTF/TEOTWAWKI situations for which I am preparing.

Will they happen in my lifetime? I don't know. On my next camping/backpacking/mountaineering expedition, will I face balmy weather or brutish storms? I don't know. But if the former, I'm happy. If the latter, & I'm unprepared, then I have no one to blame but myself for being unprepared, and no one to count on but myself for surviving it. FEMA is still busy in NO.
_______

Peak oil

Global warming/climate change

Hey, have you checked what's happening in the Arctic recently?

Just ask Cosmoline what's happening to the weather near the Arctic.

Think those are a bunch of bunk dreamed up by leftist, envirowacko pinkos? Don't believe any of this?

OK, that's your choice. It's a free country. Believe whatever you want. I could care less. We all do what we do.

But just for the record:

A) I teach college-level classes about both issues.

B) I'm apolitical. I'm not lobbying for smaller cars, better gas mileage, stronger emmision standards, or any of the standard environmentalist BS offered as solutions to the above problems.

C) I'd rather be prepared and wrong than unprepared and right.

Read my lips: it's too late for such mambe pambe environmentalist solutions. Nothing we can do will stop the transition. What they (environmentalists) are not telling you about is acceleration in nonlinear systems ('positive feedback'), phase transitions at critical thresholds (like ice to water, or magnetic to nonmagnetic transitions) & lag time effects (the warming of Earth that is occuring now is resulting from an increase in gases emitted decades ago. What we're putting up now won't have an effect for several more decades).

Prediction: we're going to get slammed, and it's going to be sooner than later.

Next year? Next decade? Three decades? Can't say. Nonlinear dynamics prohibit accurate predictions of when phase transitions will occur.

But if you've got kids, and care about their future, then I'd teach them how to deal with SHTF/TEOTWAWKI, because agricultural & economic systems as we've known them for the last 100 years are going bye bye.

In this case, I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

I hope the weather on my next camping/backpacking/mountaineering expedition is sunny, dry & balmy.

But if not, I have no one to blame but myself if I'm not prepared.

SHTF?

TEOTWAWKI?

Maybe. Maybe not.
______

Hey, I've still got one more taco. Think I'll go have a snack.

Then, I'll polish my K9, and think about upgrades to my BOB.

Hey, guess what! I finally got that check from the estate lawyer. Going to order my 870P tomorrow!

Woohoo!



Nem

 

[mindpilot]

 

[Jmurman]

Good post Nemotocyst-870!

 

[mindpilot]

yes good post.

 

[Mongo the Mutterer]

Nematocyst-870 -- good post. You have almost convinced me about global warming. Not quite, but almost.

I think the fact that the theory is one of tenets of anti-American leftists gives me gas. I believe Robert Kennedy Jr. less than I believe my cat Butter, who is sitting in front of my keyboard as I type. Butter makes more sense, and doesn't insult governors of hurricane ravaged states.

At any rate, Mongo and Deadeye Deb keep preparing. Vigilance doesn't cost much.

 

[Travis McGee]

N-870: Great post.

Yes, I agree 100%, things are on the verge of going "non-linear," and the disruption will bring on SHTF, if not TEOTWAWKI. The best we can probably hope for is a severe hit to the economy, leading at least to an Argentina 2001-2005 model. If that type of economic collapse occurs in the USA, it will be MUCH worse than in Argentina, because of our dyfunctional social dynamics. Think post-Katrina, nationwide, with no FEMA cavalry riding to the rescue. We will be on our own, for weeks, months or forever, while bands of extremely hungry bad guys will be looking for food, warmth, loot, women etc. When these guys realize that law and order have broken down....it will get VERY ugly in a hurry. Many of them will have been nursing racial and other grudges all of their lives, and they will ENJOY hurting you. Please go back to my post at the end of page 3 of this thread, and read the "Thoughts on Urban Survival" link, and then imagine those economic realities in the USA.


What will tip our economy into collapse? Could be a mutated bird flu leading to a 1918 level pandemic. Could be Iran, using oil as an economic weapon: in March 2006 they will begin to sell oil in Euro-denominated contracts. The last two generations of Uncle Sam's fiat dollar supremacy may be coming to an end, and when that happens.... "Hello, Argentina USA," when the world decides to dump dollars. Those are just two possible "triggers, there are lots of other events which could knock the global economy off of the tracks, and when that happens, rioting will break out in every major city, when the supermarkets, ATMs and gas stations run dry and are not restocked.

I would not want to live in or near a large city when (not if) this happens.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody, I seriously do not think our supermarkets will be full of frozen turkeys in November 2006.

 

[itgoesboom]

To all you gun owners that like to make fun of those of us that engage in discussions about preparations for the worst and store small quantities of ammunition and arms:

When you see us talking about defending our lives from marauders or attackers in a case of civil unrest, disaster or societal collapse, who do you think we're talking about?

Well, asside from terrorists/invaders, zombies, giant bugs, aliens and the government, we're talking about YOU.


Yes, that's right. Try to ignore the jokes about the zombies and bugs and realize that I am VERY serious here.


Those of you that have firearms and the knowledge to use them that don't have some MRE's or canned goods and water stored as well as evacuation routes and alternate plans based on plausible disaster scenarios put others at risk because of your lazines and blissninnie attitude. What are you gonna do, let your wife and kids die of starvation because you didn't prepare for the situation you find yourself in, or will you go hunting? In some areas, the only hunting you can do consists of what's over in Joe Neighbor's house and convincing him to give it to you, or forcing him to.

I don't know anyone, no matter if the situation is their fault or not, that would let their family members or children die if they had the means to prevent it, no matter what those means were and what using them meant committing themselves to.

I'll say it again, gun owners in condition white that do not take certain aspects seriously (firearms politics and rights, disaster preparations) are MY biggest concern.

The fact that you all think you have the maturity to be responsible enough to own a firearm but mock others for being more responsible than you are for their own safety and thus the safety of others, albeit in an unlikely scenarios, astounds me.

Unprepared gun owners, just like every other person who is not prepared, will turn into welfare-entitlement whores when the food and water are gone and Billy Jr. and little Sally are dehydrating and starving...only the entitlements will to whatever someone else has because they were better prepared or more fortunate but are not sharing, the checks will be cashed at will and will be written on shell casings, signed in someone else's blood.

But nah, can't happen here, right?

It's not the guy that gets over eccentric about preparing for disaster and has 20,000 rounds of ammo, 15 rifles and 22 escape routes with 200lbs of gear that worries me, it's the guy with no preparations (mentally or materially) that finds himself and his family stuck in a bad situation with nowhere to go and nothing to lose that I worry about. In dire circumstances, even the most civilized and honorable of human beings are capable of every vile and vicious act known to man (rape, murder, cannibalism, incest, theft, torture etc...), one would do well to remember that.

You do what you want, don’t worry, we think you’re just as foolish as you think we are.

This deserves to be repeated yet again.

My family and I are prepared to live through natural and man made disasters. Are you?

I.G.B.

 

[itgoesboom]

Remember the 1984 Winter Olympics in Sarejevo? Remember how all the talking heads gushed and said that the city and people were so sophisticated and educated. They were cosmopolitan, even if they were a Communist nation. We were told they were "just like us".

What if they were right?

Another excellent point.

I.G.B.

 

[NineseveN]

Nemo, not to get off-track, because I suspect we've had this discussion once before, but I think where you lose folks is when the discussion starts introducing the words "global warming". That's not exactly precise from all accounts, and I suspect you know that.

While I find most of the Global Warming literature to be full of a bunch of presumptions and misleading information, I doubt anyone on either side of the isle can disagree that the climate is changing or could possibly begin to change at some point if it already has not. Nature is certainly no poster child for stability. But here's the point:

If it is global warming, and the results are as they predict, things will go downhill hard and fast. We're talking worst-case catastrophic event scenarios.

If this is the natural ebb and flow of the climate system, things are still going to get a whole lot worse before they get better. Just because it's natural and part of a cycle doesn't mean it’s pleasant. After all, a pride of lions feeding on a kill is completely natural, but it's a whole new ball game when you're on the lunch menu.

And this is where SHTF scenarios and folks on both sides of the isle can meet. No matter what the situation truly is (ebb and flow, global warming, both or neither), you should plan for all of those scenarios in a general sense, because that's the nature of planning. If we knew exactly what would happen, when it would happen, how it would happen and for how long, there'd be no need to discuss it or plan for it. Since all of us SHTF'ers are saying preparation is key, I think it is important to listen to what the other guy is saying too, even if you disagree. Think about it, what if he's right?

 

[wingnutx]

A few years ago the main gasoline supply line into Phoenix broke. Gas had to be trucked in, so there was a general shortage.

Even though this was more an inconvenience than a catastrophe, I saw thugs pulling guns to force their way to the head of the gas lines. People panicked.

Imagine how the great unwashed would react to something more serious, like water being cut off for a week when it's 115 degrees outside. People will die not just from dehydration, but at the hands of their panicked fellow citizens trying to get the last case of water at the store. I'd rather spend $20 at costco and throw a couple of cases in my garage ahead of time. At worst I am out the $20 or I drink it while I'm doing yard work.

In the gas situation, the guy who keeps an extra 20 gallons in his garage and his tank topped off is sitting pretty and can ride it out, not waiting for an hour while hoping he'll get to the pump in time. He's also not out his investment if he just uses the gas and rotates his stock.

 

[Travis McGee]

Regardless of whether global warming is manmade or a natural cyclical cycle, nine-seven's point about non-linear change stands. We know know from tree ring studies and ice cores, that weather patterns can swing with great speed once certain "tipping points" or threshholds are reached.

An example of this is the El Nino weather cycle, where the main Pacfic Ocean currents reverse, sending rain into deserts and draughts to wet areas from Australia to the Americas.

A threshold temperature change which alters ocean currents on a long term basis could throw global weather patterns into what would appear to be chaos to us. Wet areas become dry, dry areas wet, and so on. And unlike an El Nino year, they would stay that way.

Many of the world's major cities would become untenable, if the rains move hundreds or thousands of miles away, and rivers and lakes dry out and stay dry, while floods bring ruin to other areas.

Just something to add into our witches' cauldron.

 

[mohican]

I've a member of various other forums with thousands of posts and I cannot figure out whats up with all of the SHTF threads on THR I have never even seen the term before coming here. The only SHTF I'm seriously worried about is the kind that involves a gas station burrito a lack of TP coupled with a malfunctioning celing fan.

before 9/11, fire department training for airplanes being flown into buildings was limited...........

 

[USSR]

My family and I are prepared to live through natural and man made disasters. Are you?

Yes. But we just don't feel the need to put on tin foil hats and carry on hypothetical conversations.

Don

 

[Cosmoline]

What tin foil are you talking about? You still haven't even quoted anything you think is so outrageous.

 

[Daniel964]

In the gas situation, the guy who keeps an extra 20 gallons in his garage and his tank topped off is sitting pretty and can ride it out, not waiting for an hour while hoping he'll get to the pump in time. He's also not out his investment if he just uses the gas and rotates his stock.

I keep 30 gallons use it to fill the car then fill the cans at the gas station. I put a piece of tape on the cans as they are filled with the date so the oldest are used first. The cars tank doesn't drop below a half tank before its topped off.

 

[Kodiaz]

Hey use STA BIL it keeps the gas from going stale my cousin used 20 gallons of gas that was stored for 6 mos to get out of Miami after Wilma(no power no water) he said his mileage was exactly the same on the STABILized gas

 

[Carl N. Brown]

lighten up

My family and I are prepared to live through natural and man made disasters. Are you?

Yes. But we just don't feel the need to put on tin foil hats and carry on hypothetical conversations.

Preparing for natural and man-made disasters is common sense (which
is uncommon) and is not tin foil helmet SHTF.

The tin foil helmet SHTF is when we put our tongues in our cheeks
and speculate on what would be the best guns and gear for mutant
zombies or War of the Worlds aliens. We are aware of how silly we
may look to outsiders.

 

[AStone]

Jmurman, Mindpilot, Mongo & Travis, thanks for your kind words.

Travis, could you post a link or two that you like to information about that "Argentina 2001-2005 model"? I don't know much about what's been happening there, but it sounds relevant to all this and I would like to do some reading about it. No hurry.

Nemo, not to get off-track, because I suspect we've had this discussion once before, but I think where you lose folks is when the discussion starts introducing the words "global warming". That's not exactly precise from all accounts, and I suspect you know that.

While I find most of the Global Warming literature to be full of a bunch of presumptions and misleading information <remainder of good essay snipped out>...

NineseveN, from that point on, I agree with you 100%, and I mostly agree with what I quoted above.

You're right, we have discussed this global warming/climate change issue before in a thread that I started. The thread got locked (which was reasonable because this IS a gun forum, and we weren't discussing guns, but gw/cc).

I don't want to risk getting this thread locked. It's too important. There are many possible causes of SHTF/TEOTW scenarios. GW/CC is only one of them. (Though as I have written elsewhere, if the theory is right, it WILL be the grandmother of all TEOTWAWKI events resulting from natural causes, e.g., other than nuclear war.) So, I'll keep my comments short.

The hot buttons attached to global warming/climate discussions come when we get into the realm of who or what is to blame (humans v. "natural") and what do we do about it (e.g., burn less fuel? new legislation to reduce car size or driving? switch to solar power and abandon fossil fuels? etc, etc, ad naseum.)

In my 12 week classes, I don't discuss "solutions" until the very last week. Nor do I allow ANY politics to leak into discussions and lectures. It's not about playing the blame game. Instead, I focus entirely on the science & mathematics, including climate models: what we know, what we don't know, what the evidence is, how models are built, etc.

You are right, NineseveN, that there are sometimes "presumptions and misleading information" inserted into discussions about these issues. But if you select your information carefully, and read far enough, you'll find authors on all sides of the political spectrum - from radical to liberal to conservative - that get it and are taking it seriously.

The main reading material I use for the class is http://www.aip.org/history/climate/. That is a HUGE site, but is the best single treatment on the web addressing the science and mathematics of the issue, developed by a respected physicist, with miminal treatment of politics.

When we do discuss "solutions", they are offered by all members of the class, and range all over the map. I listen to, but neither endorse nor condemn the solutions offered. It's a way of letting people see some hope in an otherwise pretty dark class. My main solution suggested is, buckle your seatbelt, and be ready for SHTF/TEOTWAWKI.

I make it clear that any "solutions" that are invoked are only going to help future generations (if they help at all), because of that lag time issue that I mentioned in my last post.

OK, I'm off to buy a shottie. (And I'm not even going to wear my tin hat. )

Nem

 

[1911 guy]

Stuff changes, stuff happens

While I admit to not usually posting on the SHTF threads, I do see the value of them. Assuming they steer shy of zombies and mutant bears, of course!
I view them as a mental exercise to keep me thinking about reactions to the world around me and not just about societal breakdown. Sit around and play the "what if" game in your head.

Now on to what Nematocyst-870 and a few others have written. One word: Bingo. We have short memories and tend to forget the lessons our parents and grandparents tried to teach us. That's why history repeats itself. We're too freaking stupid to learn from our mistakes as a society and civilization. The S has hit the F before and it most certainly do so again. Probably not that far off, either. It may not start here and may not end here, but it will most certainly pass through here.
The other thing working against us here is the fact that slow declines are called political process and interfering is considered a crime while quick falls are viewed as O.K. to do something about. Don't stick to the 20th century, read all the way back to the fall of Rome, human nature is the same. Anyone who saw it coming was viewed as being a problem while those championing status quo were heroes. Sound familiar?

 

[Travis McGee]

Bump for later.....

 

[Cosmoline]

Preparing for natural and man-made disasters is common sense (which
is uncommon) and is not tin foil helmet SHTF.

The tin foil helmet SHTF is when we put our tongues in our cheeks
and speculate on what would be the best guns and gear for mutant
zombies or War of the Worlds aliens. We are aware of how silly we
may look to outsiders.

Heck, there are ENTIRE FORUMS dedicated to speculating about the rise of the undead:

http://www.allthingszombie.com/forums/index.php

 

[Travis McGee]

Nematocyst-870:
Below is a link to the very long essay on post-SHTF survival, written by a 26 year old newly minted architect in Buenos Aires. (He is FerFAL in the posts.)In December 2001, the economy collapsed, and the currency was devalued by 70%, throwing the country from first world status into a "great depression" over night. Power is still intermittant, water is nasty when it flows, crime, carjacking and kidnapping have exploded.

You need to go to Frugal Squirrels dot com, navigate to the Frugal's Forums page, then to General Patriot Discussion. "Thoughts on Urban Survival" is a "sticky" at the top.

http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=044387

The owner of the forum paid the author a (well deserved) copyright fee, both to help him out financially and to protect his work for possible later publication in book form. That's why I can't just print it here....I wouldn't be keeping on "The High Road" if I did. Anyway, it only takes a minute for the free registration to access the thread, or so I'm told. (I've been a "squirrel" over there so long, I forget exactly what registration entails, but it is free. It's just the way the site is set up.) Don't worry, "Thoughts On Urban Survival" is worth it!

And as bad as it is in Argentina, it's likely that a similar level of economic collapse will result in far worse violence in the USA, because we do not share a common ethnic heritage and religion like the Argentines do. Racial tensions and ethnic Balkanization may send our cities into "Sarajevo status" rather quickly, if the ATMs, gas stations and supermarkets go empty and are not refilled for weeks or months, following an economic collapse.