At what point is a projectile wide enough to defeat living tissue's elasticity and leave gaping wounds?
I've understood it to be more a function of velocity than diameter. There's the crush trauma - that's what the diameter affects, and the cavitation trauma - which is based on whether the cavitation is wide enough to break elasticity, and it's velocity that determines the cavitation.
Coalman, I'd like to point out, if the lower number is -25%, the bigger number is actually only +20%. 5/4 vs. 4/5...Benelli makes the same mistake in their ComforTech recoil charts.
Regardless of whether you look at diameter or surface area, percentages or measurements - the question remains: what does a 20% wider (expanded) bullet actually give you in terms of performance? It's not like a video game where we can say the 9mm does 30 damage and the .45 does 36 damage, so you can take down your target in 3 hits instead of 4. You're not stopping the target by taking out a certain volume of tissue - you stop the target by disrupting vital organs.
This is why a lot of people look at the measurements instead of percentages. With a 0.75" expanded diameter, you have 0.1" extra over 0.65" to nick that artery or get a better hit on that vital organ. Which means the only times the .45 will offer a more "solid hit" than a 9 is when the 9 was not enough, but was within 0.05" on that side (since the 0.1" covers both sides), of being enough.
The other side, the surface area side, deals more with rapid blood loss than with vital tissue disruption. Rapid blood loss isn't going to quickly stop an attack, especially with a handgun, it is more of a secondary effect.
To me, it really boils down to the fact that I would have to "miss" by 0.05" in order to make the difference between 9 and .45, in your example, for the .45 to be wanted. So that begs the question - what are my chances of missing but being within that limit?
ETA:
On penetration, if you need 13 inches to reach the heart (because of angle, arm in the way, etc.) and you only penetrate 12", that doesn't mean you did 92% of the work. You did very little, since you didn't do much to the heart.
Percentages are nice, but only if they're meaningful. In this case, unless you're talking about the volume of the wound tract as it relates to blood loss, I don't think the penetration or surface area percentages tell us much. With a handgun, it's more about what you hit, which is more about "enough" penetration and proper placement.