Are you buying ammo at higher than market prices?

[danez71]

I don't think anyone feels that more shooters is a bad thing.
...
...
...

Honestly, I don't think there's any real way to PROVE either view. I lean more toward the first version, but I certainly understand that there are some people just buying lots of ammo at every possible opportunity. Does it really matter in the end?

New shooters are a good thing. The shortage, assuming a good % of the shooters stay, with-out an eventual increase in supply capacity is only a bad thing.

Doesn't really matter why. Only matters what the end result is in the long run.



Something a page or 2 pack.... to the effect of "if the stores sell it for what the scalpers are selling it for there wouldn't be a grey market.

I think it was said by someone that must try to learn about this stuff on internet forums because that is ....Moooo-Larky!


Take sports tickets for example. Every year the prices go up. A majority of the time they don't even sell out of regular season games. Yet at every game Ive been to, there are scalpers out front selling tickets.

Scalpers exist for many many reasons besides just offering a product that isn't available thru the traditional source.

To think scalpers are only there due to that reason is naïve.

 

[Sam1911]

jcwit provided an example of a club full of kids wanting to learn to shoot.

Agsalaska provided a handful of adults that apparently never took interest until the panic that also happen to have a few kids that the adults may or may not be including.


+~50 (+1 for ea. kid in the club) to jcwit

+7.5 (+ .75 for ea. adult late comer & possible kid ) to agsalaska

How many clubs are there with, let's say 50, kids who want to shoot but can't because of the shortage? Compare that pretty low number with the number of random "handfuls of adults" across the country who are getting into shooting? No prayer of a comparison there. We all know how many people compete or train or participate in organized events -vs.- how many don't bother and just want to go plink. It's better than 100s:1 against.

Or maybe they don't buy it AT ALL.

So there are these thousands of new shooters who aren't buying ANY ammo? How's that again? You'd have to accept that the ammo is all being bought up by the hoarders/scalpers/flippers/etc. not by the average joe shooters looking for a bit of range time, and that doesn't jibe with what almost any of us are seeing out in the real world.

Tons of people get into new hobbies only to realize they don't want to put in the commitment of funds to keep it going. Hence the reason why there are roughly 2.321 bazillion snow ski's, gym equipment, ping pong tables, mountain bikes etc etc. collecting dust in garages all of the nation.

Yeah. That was bound to happen with any bubble. We're fortunate that the surge in interest in shooting has continued this long. But...

That does ZERO for our sport or worst, hurt it because all they did was fuel the panic fire and leave.

Fuel the fire, leave, and dump lots of second-hand gear, guns, and ammo back into the hands of those who stick it out? I'm cool with that. That's a market correction for you.

Now some of our members are saying "this is the new normal -- there won't ever be any market corrections" but I don't really agree.

Do you think these new shooter live in a vacuum?
Do you think they haven't been told by other longer terms shooter that prices were much lower before... that they should be coming down?

Do you think that these new shooters that joined THR and have seen these seemingly endless threads about the high price for the past YEAR+... and that some of them wished they knew this BEFORE they bought a gun and couldn't find ammo?

Yup. Just like my Dad and Uncles told me of how it was dumb to pay $450 for a 1903A3, or $265 for an M1 Garand, because they used to buy them for $15 from a barrel down at the hardware store. Or how I, myself, realize I should have bought a truckload of Chinese SKS rifles for $80 a piece a few years back. Or Mausers, Enfields, etc.,etc.

None of that has cooled my interest even a little. Times change. Everyone wishes they got in "when the getting was good." So what? ESPECIALLY with guns stuff, that doesn't seem to turn off ANYBODY. And if it does turn off a few, their re-sold gear will just dump back into a hungry market and help to calm the waters. All part of the market correction process.

Why fret? We can't even begin to fight it, and we don't have to.

The end sum game here is that if new shooters cant get ammo or that ammo is prohibitively expensive, most of the new shooters will lose interest and not continue. It happens in every hobby/sport

Again, that's inevitable. If the ammo was FREE we'd probably see it happen just as fast. Remember, shortages don't make people stop wanting a product. They actually makes them HUNGRIER for it. Eventually some will give up and drop out. Most would have anyway. Some will continue longer and buy more than they ever would have (I'm thinking of our own Queen of Thunder when I write this -- and I do hope she's not at all offended) because of the habit/thrill of the hunt.

If people are shooting less, shooting ranges go out of business.

ARE people shooting less? Not at all that I've seen. Are there gun ranges sitting vacant these days? It's not a problem I've run across. Ammo is expensive and can be hard to find. But that hasn't lead to an overall reduction in shooting, I don't think. In fact, it seems to be fed by an INCREASE in shooting, overall. If no one's shooting, the ammo isn't getting used up. The whole nation's supply is NOT going into the backs of people's closets and into the bunkers of the preppers.

Gun shops start hurting and go out of business.

Again, is this actually happening now? I do know that many shops had a rough patch during the spring/summer of 2013 when there actually were widespread shortages due to lag in the supply system when hit with enormous demand. But the shops are doing a booooming business these days, from what I've seen. Is that mistaken? Are they folding up in record numbers and I'm just not seeing it?

Typically, the most beneficial thing to come out of a shortage is increased supply capacity.

Since we haven't seen much of that, overall, the shortage is doing more harm that good...

We already covered that several times. Why anyone would expect a whole industry to decide to, and be able to, ramp up production beyond 24/7 shifts on their existing production lines within a year is beyond me. These things take a lot of time, and an enormous amount of careful consideration.

... no matter how many times our beloved armchair internet economists try to spin it...

Hey! Is that ME? It IS me, isn't it? It's so nice to be noticed!

 

[Sam1911]

New shooters are a good thing. The shortage, assuming a good % of the shooters stay, with-out an eventual increase in supply capacity is only a bad thing.

Ok, covered that one.

... to the effect of "if the stores sell it for what the scalpers are selling it for there wouldn't be a grey market.

I think it was said by someone that must try to learn about this stuff on internet forums because that is ....Moooo-Larky!

Nope, I said if the stores would follow the market prices up to something close to the average selling price out there "in the wild" it would remove the incentive for reselling. And it would.

Take sports tickets for example. Every year the prices go up. A majority of the time they don't even sell out of regular season games. Yet at every game Ive been to, there are scalpers out front selling tickets.

Scalpers exist for many many reasons besides just offering a product that isn't available thru the traditional source.

Ok, that is probably true (though I'll have to take your word for it, I don't do sports) but there would be many reasons scalpers would sell tickets to games that didn't sell out. Like, say, seats on the 50 yard line, or other premium seats that DID sell out far ahead of time. None of that is directly analogous to ammo.

To think scalpers are only there due to that reason is naïve.

I don't think that is the only reason ALL scalpers work their angle. I think that the only reason that anyone can make a profit reselling .22 ammo in the USA in 2013/14 is that some outlets are selling it at below the cost that many shooters are willing to pay for it.

If you have any possible rebuttal of that, I certainly am listening. If people aren't willing to pay a lot more than what WalMart sells ammo for, WHY are they buying it from "scalpers?" I'll be very interested to hear how factors other than the simplest of economics are relevant.

 

[AKElroy]

So the scalpers who are selling ammo at inflated prices that they purchased from retails outlets are setting the market value?

Using this logic the big box retail stores have no idea what the market value is.

OOOOOOOOOOOOoooooKAY

Pigs fly too.

Big retailers are not in the commodity speculation business. They are in the long-term sustainability business, and that includes keeping a long term customer base. The folks stocking up to re-sell are speculating, and many will get caught holding the bag when supply finally meets market demand, which it will. It always does.

I have an acquaintance that got stuck with 3 dozen AR's that are now worth roughly half we he has in them. The same will happen with ammo. It is a mathematical certainty, as more rounds are being sold than shot. This can only mean that supply is steadily increasing relative to demand, and it matters not where that supply exists. If it is out there, it is for sale. Everything is.

Eventually that supply will tip, and even the hoarders will be forced to let it go for what the market will bear, and that will be at a price far below what they had hoped simply to replenish their cash flow. In fact, it will be well below the retail they paid. If I'm paying retail, I'm going to a store. If I'm going to some guys basement, I'm getting a deal. They PAID retail, so they lose. Eventually.

The trick for the speculators is to not be the one without a chair when the music stops, as they will all be grasping for the same falling knife at that point. The walmarts of the world did not achieve their amazing success by following such short term, risky practices.additionally, Walmart is far more interested in drowning speculators under an eventually unsaleable supply than gouging a loyal customer base.

 

[Sam1911]

The folks stocking up to re-sell are speculating, and many will get caught holding the bag when supply finally meets market demand, which it will. It always does.

I have an acquaintance that got stuck with 3 dozen AR's that are now worth roughly half we he has in them. The same will happen with ammo. It is a mathematical certainty, as more rounds are being sold than shot. Eventually that supply will tip, and even the hoarders will be forced to let it go for what the market will bear, and that will be at a price far below what they had hoped simply to replenish their cash flow.

The trick for the speculators is to not be the one without a chair when the music stops.

The only difference I'll point out is that there ARE still sources for pretty cheap .22 ammo. You can still hit a WalMart and get three bricks a day for right at $20, if you're lucky and/or persistent. The supposed folks who are "flipping" really don't stand to lose ANYTHING if they get stuck holding bricks of .22 that have dropped back in value to pre-panic prices.

That's what makes this so appealing and probably inevitable. It's a no-risk game.

Now, if one guy sells it to the next guy for $30, who sells it to the next guy for $40, who sells it to the next guy for $50 ... yeah, then someone's getting left "without a chair."

But if the long-term sustainability retailers (great description!) hold their prices artificially far below the market indefinitely, the risk just never materializes for whichever folks are still doing the flipping thing.

As I said before:

Will there be some folks who get STUCK with ammo they intended to "flip" and now can't make a lot of money on? Heck, probably. That's finance for you. Every investment is a risk. But the thing is, if they bought it for $20 a brick, they'll sell some of it for $50 a brick. They'll sell a lot of it for $40 a brick. Then as things loosen up they'll sell some of it for $30 a brick. Then whenever the prices finally go flat, they'll still be selling off the last of it for $20-25 a brick. That's not really a loss, you know. That's still a lot of net profit along the way, and even if they're totally STUCK with it, they break even.

 

[danez71]

So there are these thousands of new shooters who aren't buying ANY ammo?

Judging by the # of posts just on THR by long term shooters saying "I'm not paying these ridiculous prices!!!" ... Yes. There are 1000's that aren't buying any ammo.

Fuel the fire, leave, and dump lots of second-hand gear, guns, and ammo back into the hands of those who stick it out? I'm cool with that. That's a market correction for you.

Or the stuff just sits in the garage collecting dust like I said and possibly just disposed of when the owner dies.

Now some of our members are saying "this is the new normal -- there won't ever be any market corrections" but I don't really agree.

Me either. But I don't think it will ever be as good as the old days either.

None of that has cooled my interest even a little. Times change. Everyone wishes they got in "when the getting was good." So what? ESPECIALLY with guns stuff, that doesn't seem to turn off ANYBODY. And if it does turn off a few, their re-sold gear will just dump back into a hungry market and help to calm the waters. All part of the market correction process.

But youre NOT the new shooter that has a bit of interest sparked by a panic.

Most people wont just turn around and resell their stuff. It will collect dust for at least few years or more and wont help a "market correction" for at least a few years.

The longer any market is in this state, the more damage it does.

Remember, shortages don't make people stop wanting a product. They actually makes them HUNGRIER for it.

Says who?

Eventually some will give up and drop out.

Oh.... Apparently you don't believe what you said either.

ARE people shooting less? Not at all that I've seen.

Are you blind to all of the posts here of people saying they are shooting less. Same on TFL. Same on Calguns. Same on rimfirecentral etc etc etc etc

Come on man.... seriously?!?!?

I cant even believe you wrote that.



I'm not saying that you are waaaaaaay off but when you don't/cant acknowledge the evidence that is right here on this forum that contradicts you, it comes across that you're just rationalizing things rather than using rational thought.

Hey! Is that ME? It IS me, isn't it? It's so nice to be noticed!

Actually it wasn't you. If you want to include yourself, by all means, do so.

 

[AKElroy]

But if the long-term sustainability retailers (great description!) hold their prices artificially far below the market indefinitely, the risk just never materializes for whichever folks are still doing the flipping thing.

It does, though. They will not be flipping for the retail they paid when they get stuck holding the bag. As I stated earlier, supply is increasing relative to demand every day. Prices are going to come down, and in a speculation-driven market, they always tend to come down dramatically.

This is not gasoline we are discussing. Ammo is being stock-piled far more than consumed. That is a bubble, one born out of legislative panic that failed to come to fruition and stands little to no chance of coming to be any time soon. This bubble will pop, and it will not be walmart getting hurt when it does.

Like I said before, when this bubble pops, I'm not paying Bobby Hoarder anywhere near the retail he shelled out when I can go to a nicely lit store that never attempted to screw me in the first place.

 

[danez71]

I don't think that is the only reason ALL scalpers work their angle. I think that the only reason that anyone can make a profit reselling .22 ammo in the USA in 2013/14 is that some outlets are selling it at below the cost that many shooters are willing to pay for it.

.

(Sam, some parts of my posts were not meant to insinuate that I was rebutting you but I'm sure it did seem that way.)


You're equating "willingness to pay" with "reason for paying" and you shouldn't.

For example:
I may be willing to pay extra for ammo at the gun range for the reason that I forgot to stop by Wally and buy it cheaper. (in normal times)

or

Im willing to pay extra to a flipper instead of watching wikiammofinder all day long. (in todays world)

If you have any possible rebuttal of that, I certainly am listening. If people aren't willing to pay a lot more than what WalMart sells ammo for, WHY are they buying it from "scalpers?" I'll be very interested to hear how factors other than the simplest of economics are relevant

Some people aren't willing to pay a lot more as evidenced by all of the "I'm not paying that much!!!" posts.

As to "why", see 2 possible examples above.


"willingness" and "reason" are 2 different things.

Just because someone has a reason doesn't mean they're willing. And, just because someone is willing doesn't mean they have a reason.

 

[Sam1911]

Judging by the # of posts just on THR by long term shooters saying "I'm not paying these ridiculous prices!!!" ... Yes. There are 1000's that aren't buying any ammo.

But most of those here (5 or 10 to one) who say that follow up with "I've had piles of ammo stacked up since the last panic ... or the '70s." 1000s do buy ammo. 1000s don't. Someone's buying it and lots of folks are shooting.

Fuel the fire, leave, and dump lots of second-hand gear, guns, and ammo back into the hands of those who stick it out? I'm cool with that. That's a market correction for you.

Or the stuff just sits in the garage collecting dust like I said and possibly just disposed of when the owner dies.

Yeah, or that. And then it re-enters the market years down the line. Doesn't really make any difference, does it? Who cares if it is shot up or stuck in a closet? You really can't prove it is one or the other, so the argument is a wash.

Now some of our members are saying "this is the new normal -- there won't ever be any market corrections" but I don't really agree.

Me either. But I don't think it will ever be as good as the old days either.

Probably not, or not exactly. Ammo prices have really been all over the map, compared to real (adjusted) income, over the decades. Folks point out that back in the '30s-'40s a kid might be given ONE shotgun shell to bag dinner for the family because that was all they could afford. Inflation, cost of living, wages rising and falling, standard of living changes = all pretty hard to make universal predictions or comparisons.

But youre NOT the new shooter that has a bit of interest sparked by a panic.

No. I was at one time, though. But again, I don't really expect much from the bubble of new shooters. Newbies to anything rarely stick with it at rates of more than 1-5% even in really good times. I think there are benefits to us even from folks who will remember when they did own an AR-15 for a while back in '13 -- they won't ever be likely to vote deliberately against us. And a few of the new folks will stick it out. Net win.

Most people wont just turn around and resell their stuff. It will collect dust for at least few years or more and wont help a "market correction" for at least a few years.

Ok...so? The manufacturers' new production will start to come on line (if they believe the long-term holding power of "the bubble" as some here do), and whatever hoarders there really are will eventually just HAVE to fill that last closet and have no more room for ammo, and some folks will just drop out of the game. And the market will stabilize. It really doesn't worry me how exactly it sorts itself out.

The longer any market is in this state, the more damage it does.

Again...what damage? Convincing new shooters that ammo is expensive and sometimes hard to find? Well, that's a good all 'round lesson.

Remember, shortages don't make people stop wanting a product. They actually makes them HUNGRIER for it.

Says who?

Ever hear of "Veblen Goods?" That's just one example of the phenomenon, really. You could get into games theory as well as basic psychology. Tell someone they'd better get while they can, and you spur their drive to "get."

Eventually some will give up and drop out.

Oh.... Apparently you don't believe what you said either.

No, I said that several times. SOME will indeed give up. Some will inevitably, regardless of how good or bad ammo supplies are today.

ARE people shooting less? Not at all that I've seen.

Are you blind to all of the posts here of people saying they are shooting less. Same on TFL. Same on Calguns. Same on rimfirecentral etc etc etc etc

Come on man.... seriously?!?!?

I cant even believe you wrote that.

Well, believe it. I sure did. Yeah, folks say that here on the dedicated enthusiasts' forums. Where the average member might run through 100 a week, and the die-hards at least a brick a week. Yeah, they're cutting back. But overall? No, I don't buy it. We aren't seeing demand like this because folks AREN'T shooting. Remember how few of us die-hards there are, compared to how many average joe shooters are out there. We're heavily outnumbered by folks who didn't get the message that they should STOP shooting. Plenty of them just say, "woah, was it this much before?" and throw down the credit card for a brick or two. Still cheaper than dinner and a movie.

At least, that's how it appears to me.

I'm not saying that you are waaaaaaay off but when you don't/cant acknowledge the evidence that is right here on this forum that contradicts you, it comes across that you're just rationalizing things rather than using rational thought.

Ok, hope I've dispelled that worry.

Hey! Is that ME? It IS me, isn't it? It's so nice to be noticed!

Actually it wasn't you. If you want to include yourself, by all means, do so.

Awww, darn it. I hate to be left out.

 

[AKElroy]

That's what makes this so appealing and probably inevitable. It's a no-risk game.

There is an additional layer of risk as well, that being the damage done to the customer base of the mom & pop store selling bricks for $75-$80. There is a reason walmart does not do the same. Taking advantage of a temporary supply problem is bad for repeat business. Many LGS's will learn this the hard way when Walmart is standing there, selling for the same reasonable prices throughout all this speculation. People hold on to things like that.

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

Now explain to me and our members again how this madness is not hurting our sport, and future shooters. Make it simple as I'm obviously not the sharpest tack in the box either.LOL

OK, I'll give it a crack from an angle nobody else has mentioned yet:

The demand, and duration of that demand, which has made it so difficult to obtain ammunition is the result of transferring billions upon billions of rounds of ammunition into the hands of private citizens in this country, just as fast as the ammunition companies can make it and ship it.

Name a time in our nation's history when so much ammunition has been in the hands of private citizens.

How can this NOT help our sport and future shooters?

 

[Sam1911]

Like I said before, when this bubble pops, I'm not paying Bobby Hoarder anywhere near the retail he shelled out when I can go to a nicely lit store that never attempted to screw me in the first place.

So you then must be saying you think the market price will fall BELOW what WalMart sold Bobby Hoarder that brick for?

So you think we'll see $10 - $15 bricks of .22s next year? Well, that's a bold prediction. I don't think many folks are going with you there, but I sure hope so!

 

[Sam1911]

"willingness" and "reason" are 2 different things.

Just because someone has a reason doesn't mean they're willing. And, just because someone is willing doesn't mean they have a reason.

Well...uh...ok. It's late and I'm probably getting a bit confused, but if someone doesn't buy the scalpers don't make money and therefore will be encouraged to lower the price until someone has both the reason and the willingness to buy from them.

So, until the scalpers take up arms and FORCE people to buy .22 ammo, we're really only pinning this situation on the people (darn them!) who are indeed WILLING to pay the high prices.

 

[AKElroy]

I don't think that is the only reason ALL scalpers work their angle. I think that the only reason that anyone can make a profit reselling .22 ammo in the USA in 2013/14 is that some outlets are selling it at below the cost that many shooters are willing to pay for it.

True, but only in the short term. Long term retail planning dictates that prices follow sustainable consumption, not temporary demand. This is why we do not see manufacturers doubling or tripling their plant & equipment investments; they would choke on the expense when the market returns to supplying what people actually shoot. If they are supplying that need, and that need only, then they are where they need to be long term. The rest will sort itself out, and the steady planners will win over the speculators. They always do.

 

[Sam1911]

There is an additional layer of risk as well, that being the damage done to the customer base of the mom & pop store selling bricks for $75-$80. There is a reason walmart does not do the same. Taking advantage of a temporary supply problem is bad for repeat business. Many LGS's will learn this the hard way when Walmart is standing there, selling for the same reasonable prices throughout all this speculation. People hold on to things like that.

Yes, a very fine line to try to walk. Really, though, we should be just as mad at WalMart. They're not on the market price, either.

Of course, a free market fanatic will say, "People will remember how WalMart never had stock on their shelves when they went in over and over to buy. But the local shop kept their prices in line with the market and always had a box or two for someone who REALLY needed it enough to spend the extra cash." Neither view is probably perfectly accurate.

Much better for everyone to follow the supply/demand curve and accept a bit of price rise that would have stabilized (in other words, "kept the lid more tightly on") demand. If WalMart had let their pricing rise to maybe $30-$35 a brick (maybe $40 in BAD months), there would have been fewer stripped bare shelves and very few scalpers trying to make an additional $10-$40 on a brick.

Instead they kept the prices at $20 or so, sold out instantly every week (so you had to go to a scalper if you REALLY needed ammo), and kept lulling everyone into thinking that ammo "should" cost that much and "shouldn't" cost more.

It was good for WalMart and bad for the rest of us.

 

[AKElroy]

So you then must be saying you think the market price will fall BELOW what WalMart sold Bobby Hoarder that brick for?

So you think we'll see $10 - $15 bricks of .22s next year? Well, that's a bold prediction. I don't think many folks are going with you there, but I sure hope so!
__________________

That is precisely what I am saying. This market is being driven by legislative events that failed to transpire, so it is false demand. Prices will return to the level necessary to supply ammo actually consumed. I doubt next year, but eventually, absolutely. In a very real sense, We have never had MORE UNFIRED SUPPLY. That is a bubble, folks. Take heart. It will pop.

 

[Sam1911]

Well, I agree with everything there ... except...well, I'm not quite bold enough to say it will fall BELOW the 2012 prices. I can certainly see why it could and I will be proud and happy to eat crow if it does. But so many people have been screaming that it will never, ever be the same again and the dealers and manufacturers won't ever give up the current pricing and that there are millions of new shooters who will all need thousands of rounds a month...that I guess I'm too chicken-livered to get on board with you just yet!

 

[AKElroy]

My rep on this forum is not nearly as valuable as yours, Sam, so I'll gladly stake out this ground firmly. Bobby Hoarder will need his closet space back, and until the corner grocer starts taking ammo instead of currency, Bobby will eventually be forced by hunger to dump his supply for $.30 on the dollar if that's all he can get. Once that supply works into the marketplace, all prices tumble. Even current retail.

The only way to believe this will not be the case is to believe that all the current shortage is being caused by consumption. It isn't. This ammo is sitting there, with most of it earmarked for sale. That's a lot of supply.

Remember the most important part of this equation; retailers and manufacturers DO NOT set the pricing. Consumers do, based on what the availability requires them to pay. The more supply, the more availability, the less they are required to spend.

 

[larryh1108]

I keep reading how all we have to do is read the threads to see we're buying less due to price and shooting less due to supply. Then I see this being applied across the shooting sport as a whole. I strongly disagree.

Copied from our home page:
Members: 191,940, Active Members: 9,820

We also read how many people here are giving up public ranges because they are filled with tactical commandos who are ruining it for the serious shooters. We see threads by range officers of how we see a lot more women at the ranges as well as new shooters. All of these people are buying ammo somewhere. Someone is shooting, if you read our posts.

If there are 100 million gun owners, that means 1% is one million. .1% is 100K and .01% is 10K. With 9820 active members in this gun community, that is less than .01% of the general gun owning population. We are also more enthusiastic towards our sport than most. I find it funny that so many read how we won't pay inflated prices and don't shoot as much because we can't replace our supply so it applies to the entire gun community. It doesn't. Those numbers don't reflect the actual community.

Someone is buying it, some are shooting it and some are stashing it. Someone above covered it pretty well. They can go out to eat with a date and have a few drinks or they can buy a couple of bricks and plink for a few weeks or months. $100 for entertainment is $100 no matter how you slice it. They aren't crying because their $18 bricks are now $55. They don't care. They never paid $18 and if the prices ever fall back to those prices they will be happy but won't really care. They plunk down their plastic, buy the ammo at the going rate and go have their fun. The hard core guys sit here and complain. We don't represent the shooting public in general. We need to get over ourselves.

 

[Duckdog]

"Please point out, specifically, who said that.

Especially the "prices are here to stay" part.

The price right now is what it is right now, but I don't recall anybody saying that $55 for a 525 round bulk box of Federal .22lr was "here to stay"


Come on Warp. You know what has been said over and over, so I'm not going to fish around in the numerous threads in this post alone. I never said you had said this, but do you have a guilty conscious and maybe had said it ?

 

[Agsalaska]

danez71:

How about trying to not answer a question with a question? Are you trying to have a meaningful conversation or are you just trying to turn this into a <deleted> to deflect away from actually providing any meaning input?


jcwit provided an example of a club full of kids wanting to learn to shoot.

Agsalaska provided a handful of adults that apparently never took interest until the panic that also happen to have a few kids that the adults may or may not be including.

I was making a point. One that shouldn't have to be made. One that clearly, since you did the math, went WAY over your head.


I have spelled out, very clearly, what I believe the problem is with pricing. It starts around page six. It is also an educated opinion based on years of studying markets and, you know, pricing things.



JCWIT:

Six idiots, yes idiots as they voted for reid and one guy asking about a deer rifle for a junior is a whole lot different than 800 junior shooters, in one county. Yup 6 dudes out of a population of almost 600,000 is a real BIG help.

Population of Las Vegas alone is 6 times what the population of our entire county is.

Also flew right over your head since you did the math. And I will have to say, and I understand this is bordering on politics which is a no-no, but I do find your description of someone who voted for Reid very ironic.

 

[Agsalaska]

Sam:

Yes, a very fine line to try to walk. Really, though, we should be just as mad at WalMart. They're not on the market price, either.

This is where the problem starts. It always starts because a certain % of the supply is too cheap. Everything else on the pricing side is a reaction to that.

 

[jrdolall]

I think I will weigh in and add my speculation to the current speculation about the speculation everyone is speculating.

It's all speculation. I haven't seen(nor been able to add) a bit of factual evidence to any conversation relating to AMMO. We KNOW that there are a lot of new gun owners. We have no idea how many of them are actually shooting regularly so we don't know how much ammo they are buying. We KNOW that it is more difficult to find ammo at the common places. There have been umpteen times that people have claimed the Walmart isn't getting as much ammo as they did in 2010 but, again, we don't KNOW that.

I don't believe for a minute that prices of 22LR are EVER going to drop to pre-panic prices any more than I believe that gas is going to drop to $2 a gallon. I THINK that the new reality eventually will be bricks at $25.

Gee. More speculation. If anyone needs to know about produce prices let me know. I can give you some factual evidence based on many years experience in the business. Doesn't anyone on this forum work in the ammo business?

 

[AKElroy]

Yes, a very fine line to try to walk. Really, though, we should be just as mad at WalMart. They're not on the market price, either.

This is where the problem starts. It always starts because a certain % of the supply is too cheap. Everything else on the pricing side is a reaction to that.

No, it does not. The pricing policy is determined by larger retailers on a number of factors, not the least of which is where will we be when the inventory creation (hoarding) ends, and our shelved are full of LR? Mega retailers take a very long view of supply and demand, and seek to match pricing to actual consumption as the best long term strategy.

We will eventually be where we have always been, selling to meet the consumed demand, and competing with every other retailer with likewise full shelves. That limits pricing opportunity even further for the retailer, and prices fall.

Since I do believe this shortage is driven by inventory creation, then I likewise believe we have a tremendous supply growing in the marketplace. That will result in a big drop at some point, and if the supply at that drop exceeds where it was relative to demand back in 2012, which it will, then prices will fall below that point.

 

[Sam1911]

Which would be one reason manufacturers might NOT be investing $30 million or so in a new production line, even in the face of "unprecedented demand." They have to play the long game. If they're still paying off a gargantuan investment in 2020, but the bubble totally burst in 2015 and their new production plant is either a) sitting idle, or b) churning out ammo that now hardly sells at $0.02 a round, their company will go bankrupt.

(Or hey, maybe there will be a government bailout of the ammo industry. It could happen! )