How much ammo for the next four years

[ford8nr]

For me the above no longer holds water. I used to think the same. . . if you factor in time, blah, blah, blah...

I agree, but between work and reloading rifle and pistol there's only so many hours in the day. A couple cases of shotgun ammo is pretty cheap. And I shoot less of that then the others.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

Here we are looking into the future and Chicken Little rises from the ashes one more time screaming The Sky Is Falling - The Sky IS Falling. Panic, yes panic caused the shortages in the normal supply and availability market place, fueled by on line forums participants spreading the doom and gloom rumors.

So we have the next Presidential Election and without vote being cast defeatism is prevalent.

Well, that's one way to look at it.

Another way is, no one expects to have a fire, but we all have homeowner's insurance. No one expects to have a wreck, but we all have automobile insurance and fasten out seat belts. In other words, a prudent man anticipates what MIGHT happen and prepares for it.

I have always bought .22 LR in bulk, and had plenty to last me through the most recent shortage. Similarly, when I buy primers, bullets and powder, I buy in bulk. As a result, I get lower prices AND have a stockpile to last me through shortages.

 

[Hangingrock]

a prudent man anticipates what MIGHT happen and prepares for it.

There is a difference between prudent and "Chicken Little". Knowing the difference is important! That's my point.

 

[Lord Teapot]

if you think it will only be 4-years, you aren't reading the political winds of this country right.

this^
demographics don't lie.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

There is a difference between prudent and "Chicken Little". Knowing the difference is important! That's my point

Given that:
1. We have been through a long term drought in ammunition, and
2. The political conditions may be repeated in the next election, and
3. You get a much better price when you buy in bulk,

I would say a prudent man would stock up. It's not like any extra ammo will be wasted.

 

[Lord Teapot]

I agree, but between work and reloading rifle and pistol there's only so many hours in the day. A couple cases of shotgun ammo is pretty cheap. And I shoot less of that then the others.

i used to agree, but then i realized i could just stockpile the materials/equipment, and use it if things went south. planning on buying an entire reloading setup and at-least 10,000 rounds worth of material (primers/powder) next month.

 

[susieqz]

vern, you are for sure correct.
i, for one, will follow your advice.
it is very hard to stockpile tho. i shoot in my back yard n it's very hard to limit myself to 1200 rounds/month.
i'm obsessed with obtaining perfect accuracy.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

I shoot a lot of .22, but try to discipline myself. A world champion (I forget who) once said he fired literally hundreds of thousands of rounds a year, "but every shot is perfect."

That's what I strive for, a perfect shot. And that takes time -- stopping, starting, stopping, analyzing and so on. So I don't go out and just blow rounds down range.

 

[susieqz]

i work really hard on 22s too.
almost every round i shoot is serious practice.
i have shot more than 6000 rounds in the last 5 months n i only go plinking when the fun has gone.
i sometimes get 2'' groups at 25 yards with 2 hands, 3'' groups with one hand, so you can tell i'm working.
but, it's very very hard.
i work at this like i'm prepping for the most important exam of my life.
i have no idea why i do this.
i do apprieciate advice.

 

[Hangingrock]

There are among us that seem to enjoy the what if scenarios as opposed to the reality of what is. A higher than usual market place demand caused the shortages of reloading components and ammunition. There is and was only so much production capacity.

After six years of unprecedented demand firearms sales are starting to decline. Maybe we are now dealing with a saturated marketplace as there is only so much disposable income.

At some point all the new comers to handloading/reloading will have the components they require and component demand diminishes to a sustainable levels.

Now if you are a manufacture what do you now do with excess production capacity that you invested in to meet higher than normal market place requirements?

 

[Onward Allusion]

I wonder how many of us who will be ramping up our supplies will be called hoarders in 18 months?

 

[EIB0879]

I'm usually buying ammo every weekend. Prices are good at our local Academy with some real deals lately.

 

[mboylan]

We all know that politics can affect gun and ammo prices and availability. However, that isn't the primary cause of cost increase. Flip open the commodities page of you local newspaper and check prices for metals used in ammunition manufacturing. Then look up those same prices a year ago.

I have a certain amount of money in my account that goes toward hobbies and stuff. Every month I spend whatever is left over for that month on ammo. It will never be cheaper than it is right now. Sometimes I buy a box of something, sometimes a case of something. It will be more expensive next year than now. Maybe next week.

Better yet, look at what they were 4 years ago. The price of metals has gone down at least 40%.

In reality, the Dems really can't do much about ammo, haven't done much about ammo in the last 8 years and won't be able to in the next 4 years. Of course overly paranoid shooters will cause another ammo panic and you should stock up for that certainty.

 

[buck460XVR]

There is a difference between prudent and "Chicken Little". Knowing the difference is important! That's my point.

That was my point also. A coupla years back when .22LR was considered unobtainium, a good friend of mine called and said he was in F&F and they just brought out a good supply and put on the shelves.....and had no limit on what you bought. He asked if I wanted any and I said no. This is a guy who hadn't shot .22 for years. Anyway he buys 3 bricks for himself and 3 bricks each for 2 other mutual friends. Went out for dinner with all three of those folks and their wives last week, and when I asked, none has even considered going out and shooting any .22, much less shot any of the ammo they thought they needed so badly at the time.

 

[Partizanai]

I would certainly stock up......

To me it's a "no-brainer.." If you just look at how much retail ammo
costs have risen over the last 6 years vs the "cost of living" alone. Another
huge factor will be that "whoever" wins; they will still feel compelled to
placate to the "gun hating crowd" of Liberal/Socialists.
This will keep ammo costs high and on the rise. Who knows how many (and
even more restrictive) anti-gun/anti-ammo laws they will pass? I believe
that this will be the case.
P

 

[Pushrod]

I wish .22 was flowing freely again. It still seems to be hit or miss finding it and when its there the prices are astronomical.

So if you find it cheap, stack it deep. That is my philosophy.

 

[Bartholomew Roberts]

Now if you are a manufacture what do you now do with excess production capacity that you invested in to meet higher than normal market place requirements?

The thing is, manufacturers resisted adding that extra capacity for years precisely because of that concern; but the demand never slowed - it increased steadily for ten years. You don't have ten years of increasing ammo demand if everybody is just hoarding.

The primary market for shooting is shifting to a more urban/self defense market. People who regularly train or shoot require a lot more ammo than a guy who hunts deer for five years using the same 20rd box of ammo. As that segment of the shooting market grows, demand for ammo grows - as manufacturers failed to add capacity because they were concerned about demand falling off, people shifted into .22LR to be able to afford shooting. Manufacturers are lagging the demand curve - they've just started to catch up on centerfire calibers but they haven't caught up to .22 yet.

Shooting manufacturers are by and large, fairly conservative. If you want to ride out the surges in demand, you'd better have supply on hand. You're just seeing the failure of a "just in time" inventory system to address demand surge. There aren't giant warehouses to address excess demand now. If you don't have it at home, you aren't going to have it - and that's trueof a lot more than ammo these days.

 

[Z1900]

I think the day will come when heavy TAXES on ammo will be the strategy for anti-gunners. Buying up all you can afford now will insure lower prices than what the future may hold.

I agree with this 100%. 9mm brass ball Blazer is selling for $10.99 at my LGS. I doubt it will ever get much lower. I buy several boxes a week. I can see taxes on ammo going through the roof. Once they start it will never stop and never go down. Look what they did with cigarettes. Ammo and guns will follow suit as soon as they can get away with it. I think 22lr high prices have run their course and are starting to come down.

Local Flyer had these deals.
Federal 22LR 40 gr AutoMatch 325 Round Pack (#AM22)
$21.99

Winchester 22LR 36 gr Copper Plated HP 555 Round Brick (#22LR555HP BK)
$37.99

 

[Vern Humphrey]

I wonder how many of us who will be ramping up our supplies will be called hoarders in 18 months?

Sticks and stones will break my bones, but names will never hurt me.

I don't care what anyone calls me -- I only care that I have enough of what I need.

For example, I live in the woods, a mile and a half from the county road. Here in the Ozarks, we have ice storms that knock down trees, knock out power and so on. So each fall, I make sure I have enough gasoline in my shed to power my generator, chain saw and what have you. I make sure I have enough wood cut to fuel my Buck Stove for at least two weeks. I make sure I have enough canned goods to last me for a couple of weeks. I fill gallon milk jugs with water and put them in the freezer -- slows thawing and also is a back-up water supply.

Call me what you will -- I'll be comfortable when others are cold and hungry and out of ammo.

 

[susieqz]

oh, vern, you live like me, but i'm 3 miles from a government road.
that's why i feel safe.
i think bad guys stick to pavement.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

The other day, I looked up the crime statistics for Stone County, Arkansas. It's one of the safest counties in the country. The homicide rate is "NA."

 

[huntsman]

I want another 1k of .45acp and the good news is it's coming down in price but I'm also thinking about buying a reloader so until I get this worked out I'm not doing anything.

 

[Vern Humphrey]

I have said it before and I'll say it again, "If ya don't reload, ya ain't right."

 

[Rodentman]

I have a certain amount of space (place for my stuff, per George Carlin) and it's pretty full. I have enough reloading supplies for many years at the rate I shoot, which is a lot less than many other posters here.

I always find some particular powder that will work for my pistols. I have never had problems finding enough bullets or primers despite brief interruptions in supply.

I am comfortable with the stock levels I have now.

 

[Ignition Override]

Four years' worth, but if you can afford it before Oct '16 (and keep the same gun types), two or three times as much. Ammo prices began going up more than a month before November '08.
The only risk is that your home can burn down, in case the ammo is not insured or protected.

My extra stash for every gun is set aside for upcoming retirement, which covers any panic(s). The extra imported 9x18 Mak and really large heap of 7.62x39 is a 'hedge' against possible future high tariffs on all imported ammo (many politicians and US ammo companies would love this), or bans on any Russian ammo. Russian relations could get worse. Two nights ago I could not Identify any Ukrainian x39 via "Gunbot", and very little Romanian.

If an SKS or AK clone were used in a mass tragedy, some politician might designate the ammo as "high-powered military munitions", and most tv viewers would believe it.
A friend of my wife is known around town as a concert-level pianist (from Rochester NY), and considers me to be sort of "out there" despite my career,
due to hearing about all of my guns, and if she only knew how much ammo...