Quantcast
  1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Ammunition Bubble timeline and prediction. (Specifically .22lr)

Discussion in 'General Gun Discussions' started by cpy911, Mar 21, 2013.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Killian

    Killian Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2007
    Messages:
    251
    Considering the fact that metals--of all kinds--are going up in price, it's a pipe dream to image that the prices are going to go down. That's assuming that ammo wasn't in high demand right now, which it most certainly is.

    It's interesting to see how many people are acting like Kevin Bacon in "Animal House". Desperately crying out "All is well! All is wellllll!!!!!", like the mere fact of denial will help to bring about a "return to normal" sooner. If you think you are convincing people that a shortage doesn't exist, and that you are somehow going to get demand to drop faster by making claims you have found tons of ammo somewhere but others aren't finding it, then more likely than not you are creating even MORE desperate behavior from people who got their hopes up, then saw them shattered. They're more likely to rush out and buy something at over inflated prices. It's just tough to convince people that things are fine when everyone who goes to Walmart to buy ammo looks at the shelves and they are empty. Week, after week, after week.

    My advice, and it's lousy hypocritical advice because I have some ammo stocked up, is to just wait. If you need ammo because someone threatened your wife, or you have to go to a dangerous city or neighborhood--then pay the overly high price for it. In that situation, you're justified to spend whatever it takes to defend yourself. If you are buying ammo just because you want to go target shoot, or to "keep your skills sharp"--then just sit on your hands and wait. That'll get prices down faster than false statements that don't comport with what everyone in the country is experiencing when they hunt for ammo.
     
  2. TennJed

    TennJed Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2010
    Messages:
    3,454
    Killian, I understand where you are coming from with your math and ratios, but how do you explain all the 22 ammo that was on the shelves 6 months ago? According to your figures we have not been producing enough ammo to supply the shooters for a very long time
     
  3. Ignition Override

    Ignition Override Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2007
    Messages:
    5,254
    Location:
    The Mid-South.
    feedthehogs: That's correct about the free market.

    Fortunately my ammo heap (3,000+ 'Brit' .303, 2,000 8mm etc) was planned, starting in early '08. It's unfortunate that so many others did not prepare a bit more.
    My comments were in sympathy for the novices and those who were broke before the so-called bubble happened.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2013
  4. blue32

    blue32 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2012
    Messages:
    321
    Wow, I'm so glad I never got a 22
     
  5. 22-rimfire

    22-rimfire Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2005
    Messages:
    11,403
    Location:
    TN
    One of my local Walmarts told me that they get ammo in just about every week day morning. But darn if I have ever seen any of these deliveries. The associate told me it sells before it even gets to the display case. Not sure what that means... flippers, ammo hungry shoppers, people camping out at Walmart or showing up at 6:00AM in hopes of finding a bulk pack of 22 ammo?? I don't know.
     
  6. kyhunter

    kyhunter Member

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2013
    Messages:
    285
    Location:
    western ky
    22 rimfire. IM good friend with a sporting goods manager, well all the managers at our local walmart. I use to be employed there for quite a while. Heres what happened before the 3 box limit.
    -pawn store owners bought the hunting ammo a couple boxes at a time in every caliber as well as hollow point pistol ammo.
    -The one gun shop owner (great guy and local pd) could'nt get ammo shipments so he bought the ball pistol and 5.56/7.62 and 12 gauge bulk packs by the shopping cart as well as every .22 bulk pack but left the smaller boxes.

    In the gun owner leo's defense he charged the exact same amount it cost him at walmart only added 6% for his taxes. I would gladly pay him before I did walmart.
     
  7. TylerS

    TylerS Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2011
    Messages:
    30
    Location:
    Gilbert AZ
    I disagree we have already hit the paradigm. When bushmater carbon 15s sold for $2700 on gunbroker. Watched it happen. We are heading back to normal. However I agree with the earliest being August.
     
  8. kyhunter

    kyhunter Member

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2013
    Messages:
    285
    Location:
    western ky
    I agree tyler just watched two get sold yesterday for 800 NIB. Most of our shops never got over 1500 for your lower end models but theyre definitely in a downward spiral.
     
  9. meanmrmustard

    meanmrmustard Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2011
    Messages:
    4,225
    Location:
    Missouri
    Agreed, and I'll do you one better:

    Two Fridays ago, myself and a coworker are in line outside Hazelwood, Mo Cabelas.

    We are ninth and tenth in line respectively, at 7:15am with the store due to open at an early 7:30 am in lieu of an ammo shipment. Four black-out Tahoes with Gov plates pull into lot.

    Several gentlemen, in plain suits, walk in as we are told to move away from doors. At 7:40am, store is still closed, and everyone outside is ticked off. I'm was confused.

    At nearly 8:00am, the gents walk out with Cabelas employees in tow carrying several brown boxes. Upon finally being allowed into the store, there was none of the following:
    9
    40
    45
    380
    357 sig
    223/556
    762x39
    545
    308
    243
    260 Rem

    I do believe, after having just seen it, the stories of "men in black" buying all the ammo before we do is true, true, true.

    Luckily I was there for 6.5 Swedish!
     
  10. kyhunter

    kyhunter Member

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2013
    Messages:
    285
    Location:
    western ky
    ^^ you forreal? i doubt they bought 260,243, or 380 if they were the gubberment
     
  11. ID-shooting

    ID-shooting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2012
    Messages:
    643
    Location:
    Nampa, Idaho
    In the month of of March I have purchased roughly 1k in 22lr, 500 223, 300 9mm, 300 45acp, 250 38. Didn't want any 7.62x39 but could if I had.

    Mostly Wally Worl, some LGS. May not alway be on the self but I make regular early morning trips to a few different ones. I refuse to pay scalper prices.
     
  12. iblong

    iblong Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2009
    Messages:
    505
    Location:
    Minnesota
    I shoot IDPA with friend that works for ATK and asked him if they were catching up.He said they were running 3 shifts and falling farther behind every day,and that 22's are the least of there concerns right now.9.40 and 223 are the hot Items and they can not produce them fast enough to meet
    there demands or contracts.
     
  13. David E

    David E Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2008
    Messages:
    7,455
    If everyone stopped buying ammo today, it will take 2 yrs for things to return to normal. IE, buy a box or two of any caliber ammo whenever you wanted to.

    But folks won't stop buying today, so it's going to be longer than that.
     
  14. MacTech

    MacTech Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2008
    Messages:
    752
    Location:
    Sector ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha
    I wonder if part of the demand issues with .22LR is due to perception

    A new shooter sees a brick of .22LR and says "WOW,! 500 rounds (or 525 or other bulk box amount) I better get as many as I can!

    A gouger sees a brick or bulk box and thinks "I can flip that for big bucks, better buy as many as I can

    A shooter with a decent stockpile sees a brick/bulk pack and says "meh, it's only 5xx rounds, I'll wait until the price goes back to normal"
     
  15. Beentown

    Beentown Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2011
    Messages:
    468
    Yes, I believe you a partially correct on the perception of .22lr. I also know of three freeloaders...errr...hustlers that would rather drive around and scalp ammo than work.
     
  16. ID-shooting

    ID-shooting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2012
    Messages:
    643
    Location:
    Nampa, Idaho
    This is the definition of scalping. Buy at face/retail value, resale in secondary market at gross mark-up to some sucker who will pay it.

    We never felt short of supply and have continued to buy, just not at these insane inflated prices. We were not caught behind or failed to see it coming. But I will still call a scalper a scalper.
     
  17. jrdolall

    jrdolall Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2012
    Messages:
    2,685
    Location:
    Southeast
    I can see that most of this jibes with my thoughts. I am computer challenged so can't make a graph like that though. Cool stuff!
    Ammo is available and it is available at pre-panic prices from the larger retailers. We are just accustomed to walking in Walmart or an LGS and buying what we want when we want. Some of us were around in the 70s when the price of gasoline skyrocketed and it was common to have to wait in line to get gas in your car. When was the last time the average person had to wait more than two minutes to get gas? Gas is something most of us absolutely must have. It is much more of a "need" than ammo is for my .22 paper plate shooting.
    Manufacturers have not jacked their prices up by 75%. Distributors and small retailers have jacked the prices up because there is increased demand and they can blame the price increase on someone else. The uninformed will understand and pay the price. In a relatively short period of time the demand will fall off and supply will catch up. If I need ammo for SD or HD I will pay whatever I have to pay but I will buy a very limited amount. People buying bricks of .22 at $75 are beyond my comprehension as they can just buy a 50 round box so they "have some on hand" rather than buying 500 rounds.

    I shoot a lot of .22 but I was fortunate/lucky/stupid/whatever to purchase a large quantity online in December when I realized that .22 was in trouble. I was caught completely by surprise in regard to .22 availability. I added this to my already considerable stock so I am okay. My group can easily shoot 2500 rounds of .22 in a weekend and last weekend was our first really nice weather where lots of people showed up to shoot. We also shoot a lot of other calibers, pistol and rifle, during our weekends but I have been able to replace everything we shoot at reasonable prices except .22 and .223. 9mm, .45, .380, .38 have all popped up either online or in the stores at pre-panic prices.

    As soon as people see that there is actually still ammo available and that there is not going to be any weapons bans then MAYBE we will start seeing some ammo on the shelves a little longer. As of right now the ONLY two calibers I have not been able to buy at near normal prices are .22 and .223. Everything else is very spotty but if you can check Gunbot every 30 minutes you will find what you need. Another "event" and all bets are off.
     
  18. huntsman

    huntsman Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2003
    Messages:
    3,511
    Location:
    ohio's northcoast
    I don't believe you can have a bubble with a legitimate consumer-able, stocks and beanie babies yeah.
     
  19. mdauben

    mdauben Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2011
    Messages:
    2,163
    Location:
    Huntville, AL
    Actually, it would if people would just listen. Most of the current ammo shortage is driven by panic buying, not real need. If people would stop panicing and buying everything in sight at any price they can find it, then prices would soon "return to normal".
     
  20. breakingcontact

    breakingcontact Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    1,237
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    I bought in the stealth phase and the awareness phase. Haven't bought much since then. I haven't seen 22LR for about 3 months now. Just this morning though, my local Academy had a good amount of 9/40/45/556/308 and was selling an AR15 when I checked out the gun section. Hope it's close to over. Not sure if people are running out of money, reaching saturation or not scared by legislation anymore.
     
  21. Sheepdog1968

    Sheepdog1968 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2009
    Messages:
    3,518
    Location:
    CA
    Friend of mine in Texas that I talked to recently who is retired and spends a fair bit of time in local gun stores is hearing that the store owners are starting to hear of slightly shorter lead times for ammo orders than in the past few months. My fingers are crossed.
     
  22. MagnumDweeb

    MagnumDweeb Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2008
    Messages:
    1,344
    Location:
    Central Florida
    I know scalpers that are starting to get upset because of the prices they can't move their ammo at. They've asked me what I was willing to pay for some 9mm Blazer Brass and I told them eleven bucks, they got upset saying they paid nearly that at Walmart. One of them has over a thousand dollars tied up in ammo he can't sell at the prices he wants to. I've told him add one dollar to what he paid for it and move on since he bought it all from Walmart but he doesn't want to because of the ridiculous sums people were paying him before.

    We all just have to sit tight and refuse to pay panic prices. Let scalpers and hustlers get cooked till they give up, sure they'll still make some kind of profit but not the kind that will motivate them to keep gobbling up ammo.
     
  23. Queen_of_Thunder

    Queen_of_Thunder member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2012
    Messages:
    1,881
    Location:
    Where God purifies the soul. The West Texas desert
    I disagree that its a bubble. Bubbles are nothing more than price increases on a product thats not experiencing a shortage. What we have is an extraordinary situation where the normal supply/demand process cannot reach equilibrium due to external forces. I'm witnessing changing behaviors in those standing in line just to get their 1 box of ammo per caliber, a max of 3 calibers per perspn per day.
    What had started as a couple of people showing up 5-10 minutes before the local Academy opens to people showing up 2hours and 15 minutes prior to opening. Today several people brought family members with them in an effort to acquire more ammo.

    Its very possible we have reached a point where we cannot recover to post crises levels in regards to ammo. The entire supply chain is empty. The end user not withstanding the new shooters who continue to enter on the demand side are short and need restocking too. Its been 3 months and any ammo delivery is quickly bought up and as a result the ability to build up stock is impossible.
     
  24. cpy911

    cpy911 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2008
    Messages:
    93
    Queen of Thunder, ok, you can deny it is a bubble, its your right. I hope you are not paying $80 for a box of .22lr because you are getting sheared.

    I am 100% certain that we are in a bubble. Demand is being driven by greed (flippers and hoarders) now and we will soon be reaching a blow out phase. Once people realize it is just .22lr ammo, they will stop paying the flipper price and the flipper demand will drop. Flippers will be sitting on excess inventory and will need to pay the bills and eat and let this inventory go for about what they bought it for.

    This is a classic bubble. I suggest you read up on the Tulip bubble, Y2K stock bubble, Housing bubble, etc.

    800px-Tulip_price_index1.svg.png

    I would respectfully say your thought process is in the denial phase of the paradigm.
    I am simply trying to educate people and to start thinking rationally. History is repeating itself.
    We are following the Tulip Bubble almost exactly, but shifted by about 376 years and 2-3 months. I am calling our top sometime mid to late April.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2013
  25. breakingcontact

    breakingcontact Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2012
    Messages:
    1,237
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Ammo and guns aren't going for what they were 6 weeks ago.

    Im not saying we will revert to the before times, but absent any new external forces we will reach a new normal where ammo is available although at slightly higher prices.

    Problem is how the government can manipulate markets and mess up the whole thing, see ethanol, public employee pensions, bond and financial markets due to "quantitative easing" and about anything else they touch.

    Anything "could" happen. Its not likely that the current conditions will last for years.

    DON'T FEED THE FLIPPERS!
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page