Ammunition Bubble timeline and prediction. (Specifically .22lr)

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Crazy? No way.

Your choices are: Pay the high prices, Stand in line or do without. Thats it.

As far as an end, well it won't be happening soon. You see most people have forgotten that as a result of the politics the shooting sports has gained a large number of brand new gun owners. These people need ammo.

As far as supply goes it looks like its gotten a little better but deliverys still cannot meet the needs of 50 people let alone thousands in any one area. Purchase limits will be with us for a very, very long time. Remember the entire supply chain has to be restocked right down to you and me and that wll take a very long time especially with the new gun owners who have been added to the "demand side". Then you have to take in the upcoming 2014 primaries and general election, the possible consequences of antigun politicans holding 60 seats in the US Senate and increasing their seats in the US House as a result of those elections , the possibility of another mass shooting and the 2016 general election are what we face
today. The next 3-4 years are going to be rough for us.

 

[TanklessPro]

The shortage is over. I'm seeing all ammo at most local stores, even 22. One local store said have had some 22 on the shelf of over a week. Stop with the crying. I'm tired of seeing these post. If you are low on ammo or crying about prices, it's your own fault. See signature for details.

Stop already.

If it is not in your area yet, just wait it will be there soon. My guess maybe a week or so.

And by the way the bricks that have been sitting over a week we $28. So don't go there.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

The shortage is over. I'm seeing all ammo at most local stores, even 22. One local store said have had some 22 on the shelf of over a week. Stop with the crying. I'm tired of seeing these post. If you are low on ammo or crying about prices, it's your own fault. See signature for details.

Stop already.

If it is not in your area yet, just wait it will be there soon. My guess maybe a week or so.

And by the way the bricks that have been sitting over a week we $28. So don't go there.

One delivery does not end a shortage. I don't know how it is in your neck of the woods but ammo except maybe 308 is in short supply here. Ammo deliverys at my local Academy sells out as soon as they hit the shelf and thats with a one box per caliber limit with a 3 caliber per day limit per person. Granted I can walk into one LGS and buy all the 9mm I want @$70 for a box of 50 or at another LGS and pay $35 for a box of 50. Sorry not going to pay that much for 9mm. I'm paying 27 cents a round before taxes at Academy when they manage to get some in but thats 10-12 cents a round more than I could get it before this mess happened. The day you can say the shortage is over is the day you no longer see on Midway and other sites post "out of stock, no backorder " in their ammo listings. Until then the shortage is still in effect.

 

[DeadFlies]

I bought a box (555 rounds) of .22lr a few days ago for $32 (retail) and sold it yesterday for $55. The madness continues. For .22 anyway.

Retail prices of most everything else (9mm specifically) has caught up to secondary-market prices, which have come down. Not much profit to be made on anything but .22 for the most part.

 

[Balrog]

I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.

You can easily then resell this for 2-3x what you paid. You just need to know how to talk to the people in the sporting goods dept.

The 555 round packs can be sold for more than you are getting, DeadFlies. I would not offer them for sale for less than $75.

 

[Solo]

One of these days, a man in a grey hat and dress is going to smite you for gouging.

 

[Balrog]

One of these days, a man in a grey hat and dress is going to smite you for gouging.

Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay. They all seemed satisfied. They didnt have to buy if they didnt want it.

 

[Ignition Override]

Queen_of_Thunder:
Did last winter's publicity surrounding the politics help create lots of brand-new shooters, or were most of them already waiting to be at the legal age minimum?

 

[DeadFlies]

I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.

You can easily then resell this for 2-3x what you paid. You just need to know how to talk to the people in the sporting goods dept.

The 555 round packs can be sold for more than you are getting, DeadFlies. I would not offer them for sale for less than $75.

I know I could probably get more but I hate sitting on stuff for too long so I price it to move quickly.

 

[DeadFlies]

One of these days, a man in a grey hat and dress is going to smite you for gouging.

Baloney.

You guys are free to get up at 6AM and go to Wal-Mart to buy stuff at retail prices, just like me. I work hard to scrounge ammo while most guys sit around complaining about shortages and scalpers. You want to sleep late and still pay retail? Good luck with that, comrade.

I recently bought a box of 375 CCI .22lr ammo for $26 at Gander Mountain. I sold it 6 hours later for $35. The guy thanked for for offering it at a such a reasonable price. I provide a service for those who are willing to pay. Everybody wins.

 

[DeadFlies]

I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.

You can easily then resell this for 2-3x what you paid. You just need to know how to talk to the people in the sporting goods dept.

The 555 round packs can be sold for more than you are getting, DeadFlies. I would not offer them for sale for less than $75.

delete. duplicate post.

 

[Queen_of_Thunder]

Queen_of_Thunder:
Did last winter's publicity surrounding the politics help create lots of brand-new shooters, or were most of them already waiting to be at the legal age minimum?

Politics created a rush of those who wanted guns but always had excuses not to take that trip to the LGS to buy that first gun to finally make the decision to buy. Others like myself who were looking for certain guns to add to the collection sped up the process to acquire them. I wanted a 30-40 Krag, a 4 inch 586, a Glock 20 and a S&W 2 1/2 inch .357 and I quickly acquired them instead of making the purchases of over the course of a year. The result was adding 2 new calibers at a time when ammo was impossible to find. Took me 3 months to find reasonable priced 10mm for the new gun. As for the 30-40 Kra I'm still looking.

 

[Jlr2267]

I have been pretty fortunate. I have stumbled upon several large case lots of ammo at various Wal Marts and have been able to persuade the stock people to sell it to me.

So you're buying ammo from stock clerks at Walmart? That is probably a felony.

 

[ColtPythonElite]

If that Walmart has a limit like most Walmarts do, I hope the employees helping out the profiteer get fired.

 

[Balrog]

So you're buying ammo from stock clerks at Walmart? That is probably a felony.

No, I am buying it from Walmart. But even if it was from the stock clerks, it still would not be a felony.

 

[Jlr2267]

No, I am buying it from Walmart. But even if it was from the stock clerks, it still would not be a felony.

Knowingly buying stolen property is a felony. If a Walmart stock boy told me he had a case of ammo to sell, I would assume it stolen until proven otherwise.

If buying it by the case at Wmart, then no, its not a felony, just a violation of Wmart policy by its employees...a violation that would get them terminated if caught.

 

[TanklessPro]

One delivery does not end a shortage. I don't know how it is in your neck of the woods but ammo except maybe 308 is in short supply here. Ammo deliverys at my local Academy sells out as soon as they hit the shelf and thats with a one box per caliber limit with a 3 caliber per day limit per person. Granted I can walk into one LGS and buy all the 9mm I want @$70 for a box of 50 or at another LGS and pay $35 for a box of 50. Sorry not going to pay that much for 9mm. I'm paying 27 cents a round before taxes at Academy when they manage to get some in but thats 10-12 cents a round more than I could get it before this mess happened. The day you can say the shortage is over is the day you no longer see on Midway and other sites post "out of stock, no backorder " in their ammo listings. Until then the shortage is still in effect.

First, I have never bought ammo online so I will have to trust you on that.

Second I still say to anyone, if you are out of ammo it is your fault and only yours. I have not changed any of my shooting habits at all. Ya'll can keep this going as long as you want to contribute to the problem,I.E. the buying low sell high crap. I have not and will not be part of that but if you do, go ahead.

Queen your idea that one shipment does not mean the shortage is over and I would agree. Does one shipment go to multiple stores that are competing for business. Maybe the"panic" was not as bad in my area (Thank God for Alabama). I don't buy from big box stores unless I happen to walk through while shopping for other stuff. Matter of fact it has been months since i have even walked down their isles. Lets run through the list of the LGS's that I frequent. All of these stores are independent gun shops. All of these were visited last week and this is what they had in stock of memory. Some of the ammo manufacturers maybe wrong, just going off memory. No 308 listed because I don't shoot anything in that caliber.

Store #1(large store prices normally are high)
22-Had over 500 bricks of 525 Federal Champion left from the 1100 bricks they received over a week before $32
5.56- over 300, 500 round cases of Federal XM193 $239
9mm- @150 boxes of blazer brass $17 (another unopened pallet in warehouse)
40- @200 boxes of blazer brass $18 ( more also in warehouse)
45- @200 boxes of blazer brass $23
38- @100 boxes of Remington $22

Store #2(small shop with good prices normally)
22- they don't normally carry and they had none
5.56- @200 cases of 500 Independence? $ 219
9mm- @50 boxes of American eagle $16
40-@30 boxes of American eagle $17
45- @20 boxes of Federal plain box $21

Store #3(small shop normally high prices)
22-@20 boxes of 50 American Eagle $5
9mm- 5-10 boxes of Remington $19
40- 5-10 boxes of Winchester $19
45- 5-10 boxes of American eagle $20
223- 10-20 boxes of 20 off brand? $10

Store #4( prices normally all over the place)
7.62x39- @10, 1000 steel case Tula $279
223- none
9mm- 10-20 boxes $22($15 limit of 3 if you bought a pistol)
40- @5 boxes $22(same deal as 9mm)
45-@20 boxes,more in back $24(no limit)
22-@5 boxes of 50 $10
38- @10 boxes $18(no limit)

Store 5( good prices most of the time)
22- @10 bricks of 525 Federal Auto match $28
9mm- @10 boxes of Remington $18
40-@20 boxes of American Eagle $18
45-@30 boxes of Blazer alum $18
38-@50 boxes of Remington $22
223-@20 boxes of 20 $10, @5 cases of 500 $199

I'm glad to live where I do.

 

[MagnunJoe]

Went to Bass Pro Shops in Ft. Lauderdale today, no "offensive ammo" what so ever. No pistol ammo of any kind. Only shotgun ammo available.

 

[denton]

Ammunition is a commodity. There are no "secret formula" barriers to entering the market.

Commodities have a strong tendency to eventually sell at the marginal price to produce, plus a small profit.

In the short term, prices can run up if people believe that they will not be able to get more. But in the end, competition strongly tends to drive it back down again.

22LR will be $15-20 per brick eventually.

 

[CSG]

A couple of real a-holes in this thread. You know who you are.

Meanwhile, other than deciding to overpay just a little at Widner's for 5 boxes of .380 the other day, the Walmarts around here seem to keep nothing on the shelves but .270 and .30-06 (and shotgun).

Last week, at Sportsman's I bought three boxes of steel case Tula for under $6 a box of 20. Mostly, just because.

I always bought ammo in quantity in the past and don't shoot crazy amounts so except for .380 I was well stocked in the calibers I shoot and have reloading components for the stuff I shoot the most.

Gouging other people and making excuses for it, well...

 

[45_auto]

Store #1(large store prices normally are high)
.....

Store #2(small shop with good prices normally)
.....

Store #3(small shop normally high prices)
.....

Store #4( prices normally all over the place)
.....

Store 5( good prices most of the time)
.......

Why are you afraid to name the stores?

My job takes me through Alabama regularly, between New Orleans and Huntsville. I haven't seen anything like what you're describing. Everyone I know in Alabama is thrashing for ammo just like the rest of the country.

Of course, it's always easier to make claims when you don't have to back them up. My local Wal-Mart has 10 zillion rounds of .22 on the shelf. They give anyone who walks in 10,000 rounds free.

 

[OldMac]

Uh, yes comrad, i do want to be able to sleep late and still pay retail. I want to live in america not russia. I also dont want to stand in line for bread or shoes. I personally do not pay gougers or proffiteers and i refuse to stand in line. That only perpetuates the problem. I shoot what i stocked, reload, or can find at retail. I cleaned out any spare ammo in calibers that i dont shoot to inrease the supply insignificantly. I would never get out of bed early to knowingly go screw somebody and then brag about it? ***.

 

[ColtPythonElite]

Well said, OldMac.

 

[Onward Allusion]

Actually, I don't get to sleep late. I got a regular J O B and other responsibilities. I guess it's too much to ask that I pay regular retail rather than having to bid on lousy 22LR via Gunbroker. It's these AH's that are keeping the stock at the current levels. Run to the damn Wally World or other big boxes every morning to snatch up whatever ammo is available then listing it on GB for a sizeable profit. Supply/demand? Capitalism? Yeah, 'fraid not.

 

[TanklessPro]

Why are you afraid to name the stores?

My job takes me through Alabama regularly, between New Orleans and Huntsville. I haven't seen anything like what you're describing. Everyone I know in Alabama is thrashing for ammo just like the rest of the country.

All of that detail and its just made-up?

Of course, it's always easier to make claims when you don't have to back them up. My local Wal-Mart has 10 zillion rounds of .22 on the shelf. They give anyone who walks in 10,000 rounds free.

I would post them but why? So all of the profiteers can swoop in, buy all of the stock and seek for huge profits, just for surfing on the net? I don't think so. Stop looking at box stores and deal with real LGS and you can find it. If I wanted I could have bought all of it and posted on here and made huge profits but I did not and will not. Life is more than making some pocket change off of others in a panic.
Some of the things I see people post on here are not very "high road". As a matter of fact this whole shortage thing has put a bad taste in my mouth towards a lot of folk on this site.
If you were from this area or traveled through much you would know the stores I'm making reference to for the most part. If you don't know that means you don't "travel" the area much. Things have calmed down for the most part here. Why would I want it to get worse again? I may need to buy more ammo in 2-5 years. The local stores have said they are calling letting people know they have ammo and know one is coming to get it.


Sorry my tinfoil got stuck on my head again. Your right, ALL the stores are bone dry. Most have moved other stock into the "old" ammo sections because they said they are never going to get ammo in again. Why are we discussing ammo we will never see it in stores again. Our only hope is to meet some shady guy in a dark alley to buy a brick of 22 for $200.