Killian, I understand where you are coming from with your math and ratios, but how do you explain all the 22 ammo that was on the shelves 6 months ago? According to your figures we have not been producing enough ammo to supply the shooters for a very long time
That was actually my personal experience for about the last 2 years. Whenever I would go into Walmart to look for .22, it would often be sold out. Eventually I found some, but I *do* believe that our ammo makers were running close to that "edge" of Production Meets Demand. There was some to be had if you waited though. If I didn't find any .22 at Walmart after a couple of visits, it was usually there by my third. So no huge issues. But running so close to that edge meant there was no surplus. "Just in Time" production has been all the rage the last few years. What we are seeing may be one consequence of it.
Because what happened with this current mess is that you don't have 5% of gun owners going down to the store thinking "Hey, maybe I'll go shoot a couple of boxes like I do every three months or so". You've got people that are thinking, "Maybe I better get some of this ammo before the ban goes into effect...and I better do it right now!" All it took then was for this demand increase to be noticed by other shoppers. No one gave a d*** about how much ammo they had at the house until suddenly they realized stores didn't have it. Once stores shelves started to be more empty than full when people walked in, it stopped being 5% looking for ammo and is now 50% or more of the gun owning population thinking they need ammo. And not one or two boxes, but enough to last them for the next 5 years. Since they aren't finding that ammo on the shelves, it's panic time.
To put it in Economics 101 terms, the demand curve shifted. Production seems to have stayed constant, or at least not risen enough to meet the increased demand. So until people stop wanting it--which I think is actually unlikely until they are certain they have what they consider "enough"--or until companies can crank up the production--which also seems unlikely because it would mean massive long term investment in new facilities and costly equipment, all for a potentially short term panic, then I think this is here for the next few months or a year or two.
Some other poster on THR made a great analogy about increased production btw. I was pointing at the screen and mentally high fiving the guy who wrote it when I saw his analogy. He pointed out that when a restaurant is completely full, has a line of people outside, the restaurant doesn't go next door and build a new restaurant to handle a short term overflow. They just max their service and tables and enjoy the business. Perfect analogy.
So I have little faith that production is going to go up. The only way to deal with this is just ride it out. But it does bug me to read some comments about "There is no shortage!" "There's plenty of ammo!" Maybe if you live in middle Alaska and you are the only guy who visits the local "General Store" every six months. Maybe those places are still stocked up. Or maybe your store manager has a brother who owns Federal, or Remington and you get preferential treatment on shipping. But most everyone else--and my own experience from visiting local shops looking for ammo--is that little or none is to be had right now. Doesn't help to try and snow people into believing that what they can see for themselves isn't real. Just suck it up and realize this is going to last a while. If you prepared, good. Sell some of your stock to the desperate if you want, or don't. If you didn't prepare, then wait until prices come back to a more manageable level (even if it is not the SAME level as before) and stock up for next time.
