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change ccw after el paso?

Discussion in 'Handguns: General Discussion' started by jstert, Aug 5, 2019.

  1. Deanimator

    Deanimator Member

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    Proponents of racially invidious gun controls like it that way. It makes things easier for the killer, with whom their REAL sympathies lie.

    This was demonstrated by an Ohio State employee who railed at the police for shooting the Ohio State "car and knife" jihadi.

    I went up in caliber after the previous serious of islamist attacks.
     
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  2. Deanimator

    Deanimator Member

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    I'm sure those women in that Tinley Park, IL Lane Bryant thought the same thing. I've been to Tinley Park many times. It's not exactly South Central.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lane_Bryant_shooting
     
  3. Balrog

    Balrog Member

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    You can also kill deer with a 22.

    There is a huge difference between getting caught up in the heat of the moment, and taking a shot of opportunity with a 380 at a guy armed with an AR, versus putting your 380 in your pocket with a plan to engage active shooters armed with rifles.
     
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  4. jar

    jar Member

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    One thing that really needs to be discussed is the concept of "first do no harm"; that if during an attempt to stop an active shooter you injure others you are simply adding to the damage.

    In the example of the man throwing cans at least one person was close enough to the shooter to do something. But that is a limited area so the issue is not how many armed people were in the store but rather how many armed people were close enough to have actually taken a shot without hitting other folk. What is a reasonable radius where taking a shot against an active shooter has a very high probability for success? Five yards, two yards, ten yards? Then add in the total confusion and panic in the immediate area and ask if that makes the response radius even smaller?
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2019
  5. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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    It attests to the fact that the vast majority of people who could be armed at these events aren't going to be armed. CCWs aren't going to save the world because too many don't bother carrying.

    With that said, there could have been a bunch of people carrying at Walmart illegally. Nobody knows anything except that NONE OF THEM ENGAGED THE SHOOTER.

    Same place and "adjacent to it" are to different things. Walmart owns its property and has its rules and Simon _____ properties owns Cielo Vista Mall, a completely different property with completely different rules. Bottom line, the shooting did not occur at the mall and had nothing to do with the mall. Walmart is not at the mall.
     
  6. Texas10mm

    Texas10mm Member

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    There's a BIG difference between a permit holder and someone actually carrying a firearm. Being that at most only 10-15% of permit holders carry all the time that brings the number down to 2-3 people carrying firearms in the store.

    If you read the first quoted post you'll see that's there's NO way there were 2000 eligible persons in the store. The actual number of people eligible to actually have a permit would have been under 1000.

    ~1000 Mexican nationals
    ~1000 recent immigrants or illegals
    ~ 500 children, it was a Saturday after all

    That brings us down to around 500 people who MIGHT have a permit. Since there are ~1-44 that hold permits in that county that brings us down to 11 people who MIGHT have a permit.

    All told there MIGHT have been 1-3 citizens in the store that were actually carrying. We know of one person who had a permit that wasn't carrying, we know of one LEO who wasn't carrying. That could well have been it.

    Since the majority of people that might have been carrying aren't going to run to the gunfire the entire discussion is moot.
     
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  7. Trunk Monkey

    Trunk Monkey Member

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    I've never disputed that. I'm not even sure I ever gave a damn.

    I don't see how that's relevant to what I said at all.

    And? I don't care if that Walmart was in Omaha. I wouldn't have been at either store on any Saturday because I don't do crowds.
     
  8. Bruce D Pease

    Bruce D Pease Member

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    Actually, all the talk about running to the sound of the guns is meaningless.
    Many people who are “trained” ( military et al ) do not engage in a battlefield. For one reason or another they do not fire directly at the enemy. A person who advances under fire does so because it’s in them to act, and they have the training (and wherewithal) to know how to do so. They generally think about what happened afterwards, not beforehand. Training is not a guarantor of action... case in point the deputy at Parkland....he even directed others to stage outside and not advance. Granted he was armed with a handgun going up against a long arm but he had an advantage the kids in the building did not have ... he had body armor.... he was trained....he was supposed to engage...but......it was not in him to act. I carry to protect me and mine, however, until I am put in a situation like that I do not know with any certitude exactly how I will react. I know how Uncle Sam (USMC 0311 mos) trained me. I still say in that situation, other than getting my family out of harms way I do not know before hand what I would do. If, to protect my family, I had to take the shot I know I would take it. Protecting my family and getting them out of harms way is my priority. Anything else is secondary.
     
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  9. JohnKSa

    JohnKSa Moderator Staff Member

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    Sure. That makes perfect sense. Shooting without a target, or without some kind of discipline is not like to make the situation better and could make it a lot worse. Again, I'm not telling people what to do or saying what permit holders need to do in the situations, just pointing out how the facts of this situation have changed the claims I will make about permit holders and mass shootings in the future.
    I agree with what you're saying 100%. In fact, that's my point exactly. It's not honest for us to claim that permit holders are likely to make a difference in mass shootings when so few of them carry. That's why I won't be making that claim any longer.

    They COULD make a difference--it's just not likely given how few permit holders actually carry and the fact that based on what permit holders state here--many of those who do are reticent (and for good reason) to intervene if they can escape instead.
    If you look at the first numbers I ran, they used exactly the estimate that 2000 of the 3000 present were unlikely to be TX citizens but used the permit holder figures for the entire state rather than specifically for El Paso County. So I think that's a reasonable number.
    I used population figures for my calculations--those numbers include children. It is true that children can't get permits, but if one considers that out of the ENTIRE population of El Paso County (including children) 1 out of 44 persons are permit holders then you don't have to exclude children from your estimate because that factor is already incorporated into the estimate.
    Because the estimate is based on the distribution of permit holders across the entire population of El Paso County (including children) the entire remaining 1000 persons would be used in conjunction with the 1:44 number. If one wishes to exclude children, they should be excluded BOTH from the population figures (which would raise the likelihood of permits in the remaining population) and also excluded from the number of TX citizens in the store (which would decrease the number of persons on the population in question). But assuming the distribution of children in the "population" of the store is similar to the distribution of children in the population of the county, it would be a wash.

    Using 1000 as the estimated number of TX citizens in the store (yes, including children) and 1:44 as the permit holder distribution amongst the population of El Paso County (also including children) indicates that it is very likely (better than 99% confidence level) that there were 23 (plus or minus 2) permit holders in the store.

    As you point out, however, most permit holders do not carry and of the ones that do, some (perhaps many) have decided in advance not to intervene unless they have no other choice.

    All of that is why I can no longer, in good conscience, continue to assert that permit holders are likely to be a factor in mass shootings.
     
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  10. jstert

    jstert Member

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    as the o.p., i may have found a possible answer to my initial question about changing my ccw after el paso: s&w shield ez 380acp. i rented one today, along with several other 380 acp pistols: glock 42, sccy cpx3, taurus spectrum and s&w bodyguard. i liked the ez the most by far. the ez is about same size as the ruger sr22. centerfire. truly matches the publicity about being easy (i.e. soft recoil, easy to load mags, easy to rack slide). comfortable in my hands. i also brought along to the range for comparison a favorite taurus 85 2” 38sp steel snubbie. the ez was easier to shoot and faster to reload than the 85, but i was more accurate shooting the 85, likely because i’m way more used to it. does anyone use an ez for ccw?
     
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  11. Deanimator

    Deanimator Member

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    The anti-gun cultist approach to mass shootings:
    1. It's better to kneel down and be shot in the back of the head execution style than to RISK somebody being shot in a "friendly fire" incident.
    2. It's morally superior to LET oneself be shot rather than to shoot back.
    3. The police SIMULTANEOUSLY:
      • Have a legal duty to protect you as an individual.
      • Are violent, racist sociopaths.
      • Should be the only ones with guns.
     
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  12. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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  13. Mike J

    Mike J Member

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    Thanks for the link. It actually sounds about right.
     
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  14. jar

    jar Member

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    And some carry all the time but keep their single bullet in their pocket.
     
  15. shafter

    shafter Member

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    And out of the ones who might actually be carrying, how many are carrying the smallest pistol they can get their hands on because "the gun you have on you is better than the one you left at home?"
     
  16. Texas10mm

    Texas10mm Member

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    Most of the time I carry a LW Commander. When I don't carry that I carry a Sig P365.
     
  17. 460Shooter

    460Shooter Member

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    There’s many of us that don’t reply to polls.
     
  18. ATAShooter

    ATAShooter Member

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    The only changes I have made was instead of practicing from 10-25yds, I increased to 10-40yds. I also have been consulting instructors who have dealt with defeating assailants with body armor to learn as much as I can about the armors weak spots.
     
  19. P5 Guy

    P5 Guy Member

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    Since I stopped answering the phone, well, can't reply if I don't pick up now can I?
    Before that I was polled a couple of times but not about firearms.
     
  20. Double Naught Spy

    Double Naught Spy Sus Venator

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    That is why proper pollsters try to get samples of sufficient size to take people like that into account. Any way you look at it, there just aren't a lot of good guy CCW at any one time.
     
  21. Rexster

    Rexster Member

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    The El Paso, Texas and Dayton, OH incidents should serve as wake-up calls to those of us who have been less than diligent about training, and who may not have been bothering to carry. This will apply to many of us.

    .22 LR? Please, no, not even in large magazines. Yes, .22 LR can cause fatalities, but I would want every round I fire to be reasonably capable of maintaining its course while smashing through intervening obstacles, and while smashing/penetrating an opponent’s bones. Even the .380 ACP has been known to break femurs. (I am not sure how reliably the .380 will smash bones, but it has happened.)

    I retired from a big-city PD in early 2018, and have been gravitating toward reverting to mostly carrying revolvers, with increased travel in ammo-capacity-restrictive states being a factor. The El Paso and Dayton shooters were not supermen; I would have been as happy with a GP100, Speed Six, or K-Frame, as any other handgun, if caught-up in either event. I would rather have six rounds of .38 Special or .357 Mag, inside the weapon, than ten rounds of .22 LR. The best “reload” is, of course, a second revolver.

    For those who may pay attention to such things, I have not totally given up on carrying 1911 pistols, but it takes two good hands to really run a tightly-fitted 1911 at its best, I have never cared much for ambidextrous safety levers, and my aging right hand has not been at its best, lately.
     
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  22. film495

    film495 Member

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    To the OP actually yes. I want a little longer sight radius for a possible longer shot. I don't carry anything less than a 4" barrel, no snub nose. I practice at 10-20 feet for the most part, but am also concerned with the possibility of making a 50 or 75 foot shot, maybe 100 - and have started practicing that shot as something new. If the shooter has a good rifle, you are so outmatched it isn't funny. Look at the Miami-Dade shootout, like it outclasses handguns in power and accuracy so much it is not funny at all. Maybe you are lucky and are standing right next to the door the guy enters through - lucky is used loosely there, since that is also an unlucky spot, but if he doesn't target you first, it is possible you might be able to stop an attacker with a good shot.

    I've thought about that scenario, say you see a guy with a rifle wearing eye and ear protection in a parking lot - how do you know it isn't a sick joke? High school kids around here recently were hiding outside their friends houses at night and then jumping out and scaring the other families. This seemed like a really bad idea to me, but they were doing it. Then there is the very real possibility that the guy standing near you - also has a gun, and thinks you're the shooter. You dray and start firing, and the confused person near you - draws and starts firing at you. It is just a horrible situation all the way around with no good answer … run away! run away!
     
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  23. Jeb Stuart

    Jeb Stuart Member

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    Should have know this was BS.

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/el-paso-...-secret-service-white-house-trump-chris-grant
     
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  24. 460Shooter

    460Shooter Member

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  25. RETG

    RETG Member

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    I'll guess it is about 95%

    Wonder what the percentage is of those who are experienced in aiming and shooting at a living human while being shot at?:eek:
     
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