What's the percentage number of all non LE people who carry a gun and have never had to use it? 95%. Maybe more?
Why not discuss how many rounds these folks need to carry?
You've hit upon one of the reasons many people find this topic so frustrating and confusing.
It's actually two topics.
You are absolutely correct that most people will never need a gun, or (almost the same thing but not quite) will get through their entire lives without being killed or seriously injured by a criminal in spite of not ever using a gun in self-defense.
It is also true that some people will need a gun for self-defense, or (almost the same thing but not quite) will justifiably use a gun to prevent someone from seriously injuring or killing them or another innocent.
It's a mistake to try to deal with the two different topics at the same time because it results in confusing and contradictory conclusions. Here's an example: "Well, if most people don't ever need to defend themselves with a gun, why is it even important how many rounds they carry?" Well, it is important, but why it is important may not be immediately obviously.
Let's think about another similar problem. Flat tires are not especially common. I drive around 25,000 miles a year and I haven't had a flat tire in about 10 years--and yes, I realize that I probably just jinxed myself by saying that. So, I might start thinking to myself. I've gotten along without needing a spare for the past decade, maybe it would be smart for me to save some space and weight. I'll do it by letting the air out of my spare tire and removing the rubber from the wheel. I'll have more room in my trunk and the car will be a little lighter so I'll get slightly better gas mileage. But I like carrying the wheel, jack and lug wrench so I'm going to keep them in the car.
It's not hard to understand why this makes no sense. It MIGHT make sense for me to ditch the entire spare wheel/tire and the jack and the lug wrench based on my risk assessment (whether or not you agree that my risk assessment is correct). But it makes no sense for me to effectively eliminate my ability to deal with a flat tire AND to keep some of the tools handy in spite of the fact that they won't do me any good.
In other words, part of the overall assessment needs to include some assessment not only of the CHANCES of getting a flat, but also the assessment of what I will need to have on hand to be able to deal with a flat if I DO have one. Otherwise I get into this weird zone where it seems to make sense to carry a jack and lug wrench but not a spare wheel...
Moving back to self-defense, the same sort of thing applies. I fully accept that I will likely never need to draw my gun to protect myself. Based on that, it would make sense for me to stop carrying a gun altogether. But it doesn't make sense for me to use that low risk as a rationale for picking a self-defense gun that is a serious handicap if I DO need one. Why waste the effort and go to the hassle of carrying a gun that is unlikely to be useful? If I really don't believe the risk is enough to carry a truly effective weapon, then the logical approach is to not carry at all.
Trying to use the overall odds to pick a preparation level is mixing the two topics and it gets me into the weird zone where I can rationalize carrying something ineffective. Like maybe just an empty holster because I like holsters--or maybe a gun that's so hard to shoot and has such a small capacity that it's unlikely to provide a workable solution if things really go south.
So focusing on the OVERALL risk makes a lot of sense for deciding if you want to prepare AT ALL, but it results in bizarre, potentially useless, and yet seemingly "logical" conclusions if you also try to use it to decide what LEVEL you want to prepare to.
I've made the decision that I want to prepare for the possibility that I will need a gun for self-defense. That part is now over with. I might revisit that decision at some point and come up with a different decision, but that decision would be whether or not to carry, not what I want to carry or how many rounds it will hold, or if I'm going to carry it with a round in the chamber. I have already made the decision that I want to be able to deal with a flat tire. So I know I'm going to carry a spare wheel/tire AND a jack AND a lug wrench. Now I'm just trying to decide how effective those tools need to be. Will a compact spare do? Is one spare enough Do I want a more versatile jack than the minimalist tool provided with the vehicle? Etc.
Similarly, once I've decided to carry a gun, it's time to determine what level I want to prepare to.
Maybe I want to prepare for the possibility of a single determined attacker. So, I carry a handgun that holds enough rounds and that is capable enough that I assess a reasonable chance of my being able to make 2 or more hits on the attacker before I run dry since it's pretty well accepted that it's unwise to expect a single pistol round to down a determined attacker on a reliable basis. How many rounds is that? Well, it's almost certainly more than 2 given that people tend to miss when they are under severe stress. But exactly how many is a hard question.
Or maybe I want to prepare for the "two determined attackers" scenario. That suggests I might want double the rounds that were required for the "single determined attacker" scenario--except that things aren't quite that simple because at some point I can't shoot fast enough to get through all my rounds before I will likely get hit by the bad guys... But obviously I want more than I did for the single attacker scenario--determining exactly how many more is hard.
Maybe I want to prepare to deal with a potential active shooter situation. That might drive a different round count, maybe a reload, or maybe even a different gun and carry method.
Anyway, the bottom line is that once you've made the decision that you are going to carry, you're done with that part of the decision. Now you LEAVE that decision and move on to the next decision. The decision of what your preparation level will be needs to be based on facts, on reality, and on your particular circumstances. The decision should not be merely an exercise in justifying what you want to carry to yourself and others.
